Wow, I didn't think Ned would pull the trigger during the season. I've been a Gio defender, but this loss coupled with the very public disagreements with players absolutely forced Ned's hand. The good times were great with Gio, but it's been a miserable couple of seasons and this team lacks an identity as currently constructed.
Even the good times with Gio was kind of unconvincing to me. Sure, it was nice to win the "MLS is back" trophy and make the cup finals twice but like we sorta go there playing the kind of ball that only fans of a team could appreciate. I always felt that Gio ball was unsustainable in the long run given the progress the league's been making the last few years. now with Messi the bar has been raised. Maybe Ned felt he had to pull the trigger now or we would get lost in the Messi-led wave.
The good times were only ok and at best good with Gio, not great. Timbers continue to have the same issues they always have. Mental issues where their play is subpar until it matters (playoffs) where they overachieve and then flounder in the final (all but the build better back, covid cup, or whatever it was called). BTW, that is an issue that went across Porter AND Gio, and someone in the Front office needs to figure out WHY. He was also outcoached by more than one coach across more than a few games. All in all i thought he was good for the first few years; however, seemed to get worse the more players he got to form HIS team. Thanks Gio, All the best on your future endeavors.
His time has come. He was failed, but also failed. We don’t have to pretend like he doesn’t know the shape of a soccer ball. He did some good things here. And a couple of great things. Fun guy. Decent guy, unless you’re an AR.
Hopeful in moving on. But the Gio bashing (there should be some post-mortem criticism, certainly) should stop now and maybe we can reflect on some of his achievements as well. Despite how this place has talked about Gio every time a player makes a dipshit pass, there were some GREAT successes.
Yeah, #CampGioOut was focused on a few dipshit passes here and there...
No one is arguing there weren't successes. There obviously were. Covid Cup was really fun, and the team was clicking. Yeah the 21 playoff run was great, and having an MLS Cup at home was amazing, even with the loss.
My issue, and the issue of a lot of people, was the overarching timbre of the seasons under Gio. It wasn't fun to watch. The Timbers did not play attractive, engaging soccer for the vast majority of every season under Gio. The entertainment value wa abysmal.
Sure, they'd cork off some big wins here and there (loved that PTFC had the best of the Sounders during his reign). But then they'd get embarrassingly trounced. At home. The random highs were high, but the frequent lows were very low. Two weeks of hot play at the end of the season will always struggle to make up for six or seven months of derpy, incohesive, and listless soccer. But I suppose for some fans, the ends justify the means, and all that matters is that fleeting hot run in the playoffs.
So yeah, Gio presided over some fun moments. He sure seemed a decent tournament coach. But stylistically, what imprint is he leaving behind? What players are significantly better than they were when they arrived? On a football basis, how has the club grown under his tutelage? And, most importantly, what the hell was GioBall? I don't think anyone will remember what GioBall was, because no one can actually articulate what it is. And therein lies the heart of the problem, imho. This club has zero identity on the pitch. And that comes full circle to the issue a lot of us have had with Gio.
Wish him well. Seems like a great human. I bet kids and dogs like him. But I've never been a fan of him as a coach, and seriously doubt I'll look back on the Gio Era with much fondness other than good times with friends in the stands.
But that is the past. It is time to move forward. This is a pivotal moment for the club. I hope Ned & Co are up for the challenge, and I hope MP can dredge up some of the ambition he used to have and allow this club to grow.
The biggest mystery to me is why the team has made the same defensive mistakes year after year across coaches. It's like the fundamentals don't exist--horror show back post marking, falling asleep, out of sync offside plays, facing our own goal too much, penalties conceded... The team has often been talented if mercurial in attack under both Porter and Gio, the defense has been juvenile for most of the team's MLS tenure.
The whole cold start, hot finish has really been with this team since I can remember both under Porter and Gio. It almost makes me wonder if there are huge bonuses attached to winning the cup and management said it is okay to just do well enough in the regular season as long as you go far in the playoffs.
I honestly think that it's more a league-wide byproduct of the fact that 65% of teams make the playoffs, and that this has always been a league where more teams make the playoffs than don't. Bruce Arena's Galaxy teams were famous for doing nothing for the first half or more of a season, then turning it on late. Problem is, Portland's teams haven't been as talented as some of those LAG teams, so while they were able to turn it on late, they rarely turned it into anything other than early playoff exits most years.
What would be a better system though, if not pro /rel?
I think the structure of MLS sort of forces the situation.
If a bottom of the table team can't fight against relegation , or fight for promotion, and there aren't solid financial reasons to remain in the top league, what do people have to cheer for towards the end of the season?
Getting into the playoffs, or failing that, winning some other trophy - Leagues Cup, Cascadia Cup, etc.
I didn't say anything one way or the other about whether MLS' system was good or bad. It is what it is, and it's not gonna change (and I like the playoffs). But given that a majority of teams make the playoffs, it stands to reason that some teams will just tick over in neutral until they have to turn it on to qualify for the playoffs.
I guess it comes down to incentive. This system gives fans more incentive to attend matches- dangling the playoffs - but it gives the teams less incentive to grind it out throughout the whole season.
Don't teams really have to do that, though? I mean, Toronto in 2017 and LAFC are the only 2 teams that won SS/MLS cup recently. And both of those teams were stacked. Salary caps keep teams from adding depth that allows them to do both.
Gio, I never quite got the blue suits, but there was no denying your passion for the team and the game and your players. You had the best celebrations, even though sometimes I worried you were going to have an aneurysm. I really appreciate the work you did and some of the results your team had were and are some of my favorite memories of the team - winning the MLSiB, the wins over SKC (Blanco's screamer) and Seattle on the way to the title game. You were much more engaging and less arrogrant than Porter in press conferences, and I appreciated that. You probably didn't have to do too much coaching with Valeri and Ridgy on the squad, but when Valeri left, it really all came apart this year and I think you just ran out of ideas, or maybe you didn't have the ideas, or maybe you couldn't impart those ideas. I'm hoping you take the rest of your contract money and go on a nice vacation and recharge and learn and I am sure you will land on your feet because you obviously are a people person and can relate to just about anybody, and like any coach, you do have an ego in there. Good luck!
And now it is the Miles Joseph show. We've been clamoring for change and now it is here. I am excited to see what happens Saturday.
I guess I'm never going to find out what Gio-ball is!
Seriously though, I've had my suspicions that Gio, had the luck to have Valeri, Chara and Blanco in peak form and Gio did not get in the way. Some teams, like Spain's WT, can succeed despite the coaching staff and I think for 2-3 years the Timbers were that.
We went to the Timbers' meet and greet last night. Got a "free" hot dog and an over priced beer. Scored a dozen player autographs and all of the players seemed to be in good humor. I really enjoyed punking Evander and Bingham when I asked each of them if they'd heard the breaking news about who's been hired to replace Gio...I told them it was Ted Lasso and they both burst out laughing. That was fun. When I got to Bravo and said "Gio Out!" he flashed a wide smile and a gave a thumbs up. Pretty cool!
I had several of those hots dogs and too much "free" coca cola. Told Ivacic that we love him no matter what in Slovenian and he looked shocked and pleased. Told Moreno we need a Columbian coach now and he cracked up. Wrote BEAT VANCOUVER in the whiteboard in the dressing room. Good event. Glad I went.
"Where are the Timbers now? They have a reviled owner who covered for a sexual predator. They have an unproven, first-time general manager whose debut season has been a mess. They have a mediocre roster, falling attendance numbers, and a general atmosphere of instability.
"It’s ugly stuff, and it has been for some time now. In the turmoil of the last two years, which saw the departure of Diego Valeri and the firings of Wilkinson and Mike Golub, Savarese was always a class act—the one representative of the club who consistently conducted himself with grace and humility, who embraced the city and its values."
I do have to say that I have seen multiple vehement defenses of Gio over the last 18 hours since this news broke ... as though Gio was somehow going to be the lighthouse in the storm while failing at his own job (the lighthouse wasn't lit people!).
Valeri got old. Wilkinson and Golub were fired for good reason (see covering for sexual predator in previous paragraph).
You can't fire an owner. In a franchise system the parent company can force them to sell when they own a minority stake - often based on malevolent behavior clauses in their bylaws/operating agreements, but obviously they don't want to invoke those or they would have done so a year ago. MP is here, in the background, until he decides he is not. For those who can't accept that and choose to not partake, that is perfectly legit and your choice. Some people moved to Canada and Russia after the last couple of elections too because they could no longer be associated with America.
But holding up Gio's better qualities while ignoring his significant shortcomings as a coach - his primary job, while bashing the rest of the organization just seems like gratuitous intentional whining. I have seen several fans make similar complaints on line, that Gio was great and none of this is his fault - placing all of the blame for Gio's failures at the feet of Ned or GW or MP ... or Paul Riley which was the funniest comment I read on FB somewhere. None of that is true. While the whole organization certainly has challenges right now, where they go from here is to hire a new coach who can start over with a new philosophy and become a competitive team again. It isn't going to happen quickly and there will be pain and mis-steps along the way, but Gio had totally lost the locker room and wasn't the guy to do that.
I said above Gio is a good guy. I wish him well. But good guys who are failing at their job and all of their team has given up on them isn't the solution either.
"You can't fire an owner. In a franchise system the parent company can force them to sell when they own a minority stake - often based on malevolent behavior clauses in their bylaws/operating agreements, but obviously they don't want to invoke those or they would have done so a year ago."
Correct. MLS as the parent company has never done that. The threat of ultimately going that route is what finally got Dell Loy Hansen to sell RSL, but they didn't force a sale there. And Hank Paulson has been called a "model owner" by Don Garber, so I wouldn't hold my breath for it happening in Portland.
(I just bring that up as context, I don't disagree with anything you wrote)
1. Go find a coach somewhere in the Ajax system. I don't even care if they are coaching the u-16 team. Just ask yourself a couple questions. How long have they been with Ajax? Is their u-16 team playing the Ajax style? Then talk to them about how they see the game tactically and how they deal with player issues on and off the field. The coaches responsibility is 3 things. The system and tactics they use. The way they handle players on and off the field, and how they organize their staff. It really is that simple. So even if they are coaching a u-16 or u-18 team, those principles translate between the "ranks" of soccer. It's the foundation of the coach. The only thing I would say that does not translate is the player issues. The older they get, the worse the issues get. But this is why I think you could realistically find a coach in a club like Ajax or bvb. There are plenty of good coaches that are qualified with years of experience in those programs. Guys or girls that could be willing to come to Portland for a first team coaching job. Be a coach that is coaching the u18, u16 team that is many coaches removed from ever coaching the first team, or get you dream opportunity to be a first team coach now and make 3x to 4x the salary to go with it.
Sporting director:
2. Find someone in the scouting department of a European club. Go look at the clubs that constantly hit the mark with young players. Like Brighton, bvb, rb Leipzig, etc. Then throw cash at them. Ask the question. Be a scout? Or build an entirely new foundation for our club under your vision. It's the next step in a scout's career and a great opportunity. They would be making substantially more money and doing it in a massive market. America. The reality is that you need a sporting director that has global reach and relationships. Someone who has been a part of those kind of clubs that do. Imagine a former scout from somewhere in the bvb system. He comes to Portland as a sporting director. 1. He has relationships all over the world. 2. Say that transfer season opens up, he makes a call to his former colleagues at bvb. (Or wherever he came from) "hey, is there any youth player you guys were looking at but decided against it? Why did you decide against it? Former colleague: we liked this other player better. Sporting director: cool thanks.
Now we have a lead on a potential high value target that is flying under the radar. And before you say, "other teams will be looking at them too" yeah maybe, but why is it that bvb always finds diamonds in the roughs and others don't? The reality is that they have built a brand of giving young players opportunities and having a brand of player development. Making them first choice for young players.
That is exactly who Portland HAVE TO BE. So sporting director who can set up a development program based on proven tactics and success. Someone who also global connections.
We all know money rules the world. So here is my thought process. Go get a marsch, a gio, a porter, and have a couple good seasons or a couple bad. Go spend 10 million dollars on a Evander, 8 million on a yimmi, 6 million on a nieazgoda, and the transfer market is only getting more and more expensive.
(Or)
Go spend 10 million on a sporting director that can set up your brand for years and years of success based on proven tactics. Someone who drastically expands your brands reach, and instead of overpaying for established players, someone who knows how to identify qualities young players that at a fraction of the cost, but sell-on at a profit. Making sure that your club is always in a sustainable and profitable business model. Someone who can build a brand of a place people will want to come. Not be bribed to come.
(And)
Go spend big and take a chance on a undervalued coach from a club like Ajax. Someone far removed from first team opportunity but has all the training, and tutelage to implement the same style of play that you want your brand to be associated with.
Money talks people and we are no longer in a position to try and spend to keep up. It's time to put a defining stamp on our club. Something gio never did. Our play should never change with the coach but should be consistent and we have never had that under Spencer, porter, or gio.
"Someone who can build a brand of a place people will want to come. Not be bribed to come."
That someone ain't coming from one of the premier clubs in Europe (pretty much any of the clubs you named). That someone would almost certainly have to be "bribed" to come here. MLS is not a league that rewards having a system like Ajax; the desire for parity in US sports leagues almost by definition prevents that sort of thing from taking root.
"The reality is that they have built a brand of giving young players opportunities and having a brand of player development."
The MLS system of territories for young players means that the Timbers are at a pretty significant disadvantage here; the Timbers' territory is Oregon and Idaho, basically. So the problem is one of pipeline; the Sounders can draw from Seattle and Spokane, the Earthquakes from all of Northern California including the Bay Area, and RSL can draw from Utah, southern Nevada, and Arizona. The population imbalance there means the Timbers will always struggle to build a robust pipeline.
MLS is loosening its rules around territories, for sure, but teams still can't poach players within a certain radius of another team's stadium (it's either 75 or 100 miles, I can't be sure). So while the idea of building a "Timbers brand" from the U9's up sounds good, the demographic realities of Oregon don't really lend themselves to it.
"Someone who can build a brand of a place people will want to come. Not be bribed to come."
That was related to future players coming to the Timbers. Not to the coach. We will obviously have to bribe a good coach from a good club to come to portland. Instead of over paying and over promising players to convince them to come to Portland. Our brand will make them look to an opportunity. Like all young players look at teams like Salzburg, bvb, Ajax, etc.
"The reality is that they have built a brand of giving young players opportunities and having a brand of player development."
This was not talking about players from Oregon. By mls rules they only have the Timbers as an option. But players from all over the world are open game. That was the point of that statement.
There is no world in which promising European youngsters - U18's - are going to come to Portland to develop their skills, no matter who the technical director is. MLS just isn't that technically proficient related to the leagues/teams you mention.
You are thinking short term. All of this is on a 5 and 10 year plan. I am looking long term. I take it you aren't in sales. I have been in sales for 20 years. I look at long term and short term projections. If we start to develop and move on players from north and South America and show a history of success in developing them behind a strong coach and sporting director, long term we will be a destination spot for u18 players that see an easier route to first team play and a bigger platform. Play in mls or sit in the youth academies of chelsea, Liverpool, Ajax, barca, bvb. Etc. Behind 60 other players. Which would you choose?
"Play in mls or sit in the youth academies of chelsea, Liverpool, Ajax, barca, bvb"
If I'm a promising 19 year old? I choose Europe every time, either now or 20 years from now. Why? Because of the list of teams you keep repeating, mostly. if a kid goes to Chelsea's academy and doesn't cut it, there's a million other destinations for him to go to. That kid can catch on with another English team's academy, or go to another country and try his luck there as a free agent/walkon/whatever the terminology is. The opportunities there are just far more numerous than they are here.
That doesn't exist in the US, and probably won't in 20 years either. If that promising 19 year old from, let's say the Netherlands, comes to the Timbers academy and doesn't make the cut, is he going to go down to San Jose? out to Nashville? Nope, he's probably going back to Europe to try his luck there, because again, within about a six hour radius of his home in the Netherlands he's got 4-6 countries, dozens of leagues, and hundreds of teams to audition for.
I just don't see the US becoming a major pipeline for anything but US and Central/South American talent, as it currently is. And that's not a bad thing, because that recruitment has expanded greatly in the last 5-10 years and will keep doing so.
"That kid can catch on with another English team's academy, or go to another country and try his luck there as a free agent/walkon/whatever the terminology is."
So go to a first team or move to another academy. Again, are you in marketing or sales? Cause I think your bias is standing in your way of logical thinking.
Imagine that conversation in your head. What would you say to the kid that strikes a sense of logic in him. And again, how do you think Ajax, bvb, Leipzig, got their reputation of being a team that gives young players talent. Through years of developing selling players. Portland could be no different. Leipzig is a very good example as a team that came out of nowhere and became a sell on club and a destination for young players.
How many coaches in the European pipeline want to come to MLS? They want to work their way up into European coaching jobs, not come to MLS and lose that opportunity. How many coaches have gone from MLS to European clubs.
It depends on how you sell it and how much effort you want to put into selling the idea to the coach. You think a coach from a u16 or u18 team wouldn't jump at the opportunity to coach a first team while making 3x to 4x the money? Especially when you consider the fact he is probably 5 to 7 years away from being a first team coach. That's even if they promote from within and don't replace the head coach with a "big name" that everyone wants. Most coaches start small and coach in lower leagues to get a chance to move up. Mls is a good jumping point.
1. Continued success in a salary cap league is impressive. It puts more emphasis on coaching. Other teams and leagues can be devided by the have and have nots. Mls is only divided by the have and have nots in dp's. Even then a team designated as a have not, can still win. Just like the haves (toronto) can fail so miserably.
2. Mls actually gives head coaches a chance. They are not quick to fire for failure. Such had been said by different coaches in the leagues. Coaches who have been asked by others in South America and Europe what it is like to coach in mls. They say the difference is trust and not feeling the stress of being fired at any moment like in Europe.
Both of these on top of an opportunity are a good way to convince a coach looking to get into a head coaching job for a first time. Knowing they are actually given time
"Vos (Amstelveen, April 24, 1983), has been Ajax U23 coach since February last season. Vos worked as a youth coach in Amsterdam for ten years. He coached Ajax U17 and U18, and was assistant coach to Mitchell van der Graag at Ajax U23. In November 2021, Vos moved to Rangers FC. At the Scottish club, he was assistant coach to Giovanni van Bronckhorst till the end of 2022."
Here is a coach that was a youth coach for 10 years, then left to join rangers as an assistant coach. Then went back to Ajax on a one year deal. That whole statement shows a coach that was tired of waiting for an opportunity and left, not to be a head coach somewhere else, but to be an assistant at another.
People honestly overly fantasize Europe. Coaches want opportunity. Doesn't matter where they are from. If they feel under appreciated they will look elsewhere. Here is a coach that was signed to a one year deal and only just extended based on results and only to a two year extension. If I were Portland I would go and request a conversation with him from Ajax to view his interest in the job.
I mean, you have spent several paragraphs in several comments in just this thread doing exactly that, right? Even in this very comment.
You can't have it both ways - you can't strongly advocate for a European-style development system and simultaneously bemoan that people "overly fantasize Europe", because hoping to set up an Ajax USA, as far as development goes, is a pretty textbook example of that.
I am not overly fantasizing Europe. A clubs system is not Europe. It is a system. If I were over fantasizing about Europe I would be like the rest of you on here and saying no Coach would ever come to mls. No player would ever come to mls.
Apart from the fact I've never said no coach would ever come to MLS, the statement "no player would ever come to MLS" without a system in place is demonstrably false. Look around MLS right now and there's young players from Central and South America on pretty much every team in the league.
I have no insight into the makeup of any academies, Timbers or otherwise, but sourcing talent from not-America doesn't really seem to be a problem for most MLS teams at this point in time, so I'm not sure how much of an advantage is gained by spending 10 years building out a somehow not-European-but-still-Ajax-style academy.
MLS can improve its scouting greatly without doing that, I think.
I don't think they can. Ir they would have by now. How long have we had an academy? How many players have we sold to Europe? Or anywhere else? We release more young players than sell on. And yes teams don't have an issue finding players but the level of those young players are not considered high value.
It would show a lack of ambition and no understanding of where we really are. We can either prepare for decades to come or keep trying to play keeping up with teams we can't. Other teams have a huge budget for player acquisitions among other things. We don't. So we either need to do everything we can to attract young quality players with our style and development program or we will be fucked long term. Like Blazers fucked
Well now I just feel like the dog that caught the car. I'm sure I'll find something new to complain about soon enough though hahaha.
I'm totally willing to write the rest of this season off if it means the search for a permanent replacement is done right. That's obviously not a guarantee, but I'm glad they didn't just rush into a permanent decision now, and that they're taking the time to do a proper search.
My fear is that the Timbers will drag the search into next year and then we'll be giving the new coach a free pass because they only had a week of pre season.
Personally, I'd look at a few assistant managers in the Eredivisie. Let's find a coach who can coach a system and use it.
I would imagine, particularly if they miss the playoffs, that a new coach will be in place by the end of this calendar year. Which is still kinda tight, but workable.
I hope it is with a couple weeks left in the season. This way the coach can see what he has. But also so he can have some input on player signings before they get signed. Which I am sure they already have a list of players ready to go for with the open cap space and dp spots that will be available.
yeah, I'm sure they have a list of both coaching candidates and potential available players - it would seem that the list of players might morph a bit depending on who they bring in as coach, but they're presumably ready for either occurrence at any time.
I have to say that I'm sad to see Gio go. I think he did some really good things with the Timbers, but it was also time for his tenure to come to an end. It will be interesting to see where the Timbers go from here, as it should be clear to the players that the status quo isn't going to cut it. We are either going to see a renewed effort, or the players will pack it up and close things down.
What I'm hopeful for is a more pressure oriented team, and some open and free soccer play.
respectfully disagree, I saw him tinker with the counter system when he took over and subsequently built nothing in terms of his own style or fingerprint on the team
I think the "player out of positions" is preference. No player has been put of the position they normally play before they came to Timbers. Besides Evander.
My preference would be this based on player availability.
Boli
Evander Moreno
Paredes chara yimmi
Bravo zup Mcgraw masquera
Ivacic
Go back to a Christmas tree to get our best players on the field. If we are running a 4-3-3 this might shock people but I would go
Moreno boli antony
Paredes chara yimmi
Bravo zup Mcgraw masquera
Ivacic
Mostly because I don't like Evanders work ethic on the defensive side of the ball. Just like I don't like eryks. They don't track back enough to help out. I think yimmi puts more effort into both sides of the ball.
If it's a 4-2-3-1 then it's OK for Evander to be in the middle because just like you saw with Valeri on his decline, you could actually play Evander more as a false 9. Floating under boli. This essential puts the RM and LM deeper to help out defensively and makes it a 4-4-2 on counters and defense.
If we were playing a diamond 4-4-2 then I would put
Boli mora
Evander
Paredes chara yimmi
Bravo zup Mcgraw masquera
Ivacic
If I were running a 3-4-3 which I would set up as a 3-4-2-1 I would have
Boli
Evander Moreno
Bravo Paredes DC masquera
Araujo zup Mcgraw
Ivacic
So it's preference. But players should be able to adequately cover multiple positions.
After the last game and mostly poor run of form it’s not a surprise but I think the organization with MP at the helm is still in trouble. If you’re a solid head coach with a real resume what would convince you to manage here?
Without a big commitment to spend, drop dead wrought, and let a coach really build a team around an identity of play it’s going to be extremely hard to get anyone. Doubt the Timbers do much big spending and instead get a young DP and mid salary DP with a few tam additions. I’d like to be proven wrong but I’m not super optimistic about a new hire. Seems like it could be a Gio 2.0, lower level successful coach that comes in motivated and then goes out after a few seasons. Guess that’s kind of being a pro manager at this level though.
we have mabiala, blanco and goda coming off the books. MP has shown he is willing to roll the dice. Just need better scouting for the dice to come up 7s. Evander is clearly a class act, mosquera is top notch, Santi lots of promise. I would think the chance to add a few more pieces to that would entice a lot of coaches. Chance right away to find impact players that match your tactical expectations seems like a good draw
Blanco was a huge player here. If they had him in his prime it would be pretty amazing. There’s definitely holes to be filled and cap space. I’m not positive their willing to produce or that they have guys wanting to come here even if they scout the “right” guys.
I think the problem is the roster construction. We've brought in a number of young players and often hesitated at letting go of established older players. So we have a number of raw players and waning older players with very little in between.
Also, the problem with younger players like Moreno, is that they view the team has a stepping stone to greater things. That's okay in some respects, however when you have 4-5 players looking for the next big thing, they often neglect the present.
The main problem was the players brought in were not being used to execute a game model. We have two attacking full backs and wingers, which seems to dictate using width. However, we've never had forwards whose strength is crosses into the penalty area.
Ned said recently on Soccer Made in Portland that their focus on player signings in the near future will be on players in their prime. He said that they’ve focused on young players recently and that’s great, but now it’s time to get some in prime, ready to contribute players. Araujo-like signings, although hopefully better (though Araujo is still TBD on how good he will be)
interesting. I wonder if there are dollars available to get guys truly in their prime, and not on the decline phase of said prime for a discount. I'm trusting Ned at this point, he's done decently overall.
Yeah, I know a lot of dead money is rolling off the books - up to about 30% of payroll, theoretically, if everyone out of contract is let go and not renewed/options not picked up. The question for me is how much of it Ned will be allowed to spend. Hopefully all of it, but this team is such a mess right now I'm not taking that for granted.
As I said in the other thread, I don't have a list of names, but there's undoubtedly several assistant coaches on current coaching staffs that are looking for a step up and a challenge, and someone like that might not be the worst fit here.
I'd love a 'big name' coach too, but also don't forget, CP was a college coach for most of his career before he came to Portland and he absolutely fit your arc, so another coach in that vein wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, if Ned gets the hire right.
But I do agree that MP being at the helm is not ideal; sadly that's not gonna change, though, so I guess all we can do is hope we're overstating that risk.
On current assistants, depends on which team. Also those guys are used to and will demand a well run organization that will spend to the best of it abailities. MP, yeah, is unfortunately going to be a hurdle. Who wants to work for a guy who basically covered up sexual harassment? And let's not forget taht even though Ned appears to be an ok guy, he' doesn't yet have much of a track recordfor success.
The silver lining for whomever we hire - especially if we go foreign - is that Ned probably understamds weird salary cap/roster rules as well as anyone. Not saying he's Chris Henderson or Ernst Tanner but there are worst GMs in the league than him.
i don't necessarily have a list - ok, I do but those guys already have gigs and probably aren't going to drop whatever they're oding to now to save us. For now, I can think of a coule of names: Feretti, BJ Callaghan, Kah, etc. Even Marsch (gulp). As for international - just don't hire Phil Neville or Sam Allardyce. Hey, what is Pirlo doint these days - I'd give him an interview.
How about the Timbers emulate what Philly does for him. Get a long-term identity, get a solid academy to train kids in said identity so we have a steady stream of kids they can call up. Then get solid DPs and some other mls players to round it out.
Don’t follow the Union closely so don’t know much about his tactics, flexibility, sub patterns etc. But I do know his guys play for him. I could see that when they came to PP last year. A manager who commands the respect, the belief of the players, is just as important as tactics etc., maybe more so. I hope the search takes that into consideration.
Yeah, and there’s a good chance they get another guy in that vein. Despite the last two seasons Gio has been the winningest coach here in MLS. Long term success with guys like Paulson at the helm sounds likely wishful thinking.
The real question is whether MP understands that it is now the era of MLS 4.0 - thanks in part to Messi. Moneyball isn't going to work if you don't have an academy and can leverage all your resources - especially in a small market. If he wants to hire some unproven (coaching-wise as I don't think mls experience is necessary) individual at the pro-level or someone whose expereince is solely at youth level - then well we'll be right back to square one in a few years.
Is there anyone around Peregrine that can tell MP to get real? To maybe just sell the team or at least take on additional investors so we can have better resources? Is there any "no guy" in the building who can read him the riot act? Same for Ned. Does he understand that we need a tactical identity and a game plan to compete in a Messi-era league? And no offense to Ned but I'm not sure his idea of soccer is what excities fans. For all I know, he thinks it ok to go play 1990s era usa nats style. Or even the dreaded mepty bucket.
"Moneyball isn't going to work if you don't have an academy and can leverage all your resources"
I'm sorry to be pedantic, and I'm not picking on you, but I see the word "moneyball" thrown around a lot, by a lot of people and...this isn't what moneyball is.
"Moneyball", by definition, is spending your limited funds on players with skillsets that other teams do not value, thus getting value where other teams don't see it. In baseball, "moneyball" started with the A's finding players who maybe had low batting averages, but had insanely high on base percentages; the A's realized that you can't score runs without being on base, so they got guys who could get on base.
As the OBP skill got valued, teams started casting a wider net and trying to find other undervalued skillsets; every team staffed up their analytics departments in the arms race to perfect that hunt. Now, every team has a robust analytics department and "moneyball" is less about finding undervalued skillsets as it is about maximizing outcomes. All the rule changes MLB implemented this season were in part a reaction to that shift in outlook; baseball had become purely about strikeouts and home runs, thanks to analytics.
All this is to say that "moneyball" as a concept doesn't really exist in soccer; there are no undervalued skillsets, because the game, as a true team game, is fundamentally different from baseball, which is an individual sport (batter v . pitcher, batter v. outfielder) masquerading as a team game.
Soccer teams obviously also have analytics, but they're used vastly differently, and can't be depended on for projection nearly as much as baseball stats can.
"To maybe just sell the team or at least take on additional investors so we can have better resources?"
Honestly, that would be an OK outcome in a world where MP is never gonna sell. Build out an ownership group of 10 or so wealthy people who can inject money and new ideas into the club.
If there are no undervalued skillsets, why do I see a lot of guys who can run and maybe dribble, but can't pass and definitely can't finish? I'm sure there are a lot of guys who may be undervalued because they are a half-step slower but can cross on a dime and finish.
I think there is a lot of room for improvement in the soccer world in the US, and if any team is going to need "moneyball" to get an edge, why not the Timbers.
St. Louis seems like a good example of a team that has what you need, a couple of key stars, and a bunch of hard working "undervalued" players.
The key to any team, though, is that elusive "chemistry" that makes players want to play for each other. I think ultimately that was what was failing Gio because he rarely settled on an 11 and had a rotating cast. I think it created an environment where guys were pitted against each other and they started looking out for themselves. I don't have high hopes that the team can all of a sudden start playing for each other now that Gio is gone.
"I'm sure there are a lot of guys who may be undervalued because they are a half-step slower but can cross on a dime and finish."
If they can finish, they're almost certainly valued properly or close to it.
My whole point with explaining "moneyball" is that soccer is (obviously) fundamentally different from baseball as a sport. Baseball is a sport where every play has a discrete, narrow set of outcomes determined by a single individual (pitch can be hit or missed, ball can be hit or missed, fielding play can be made or missed), so it's pretty straightforward to assign a value to each of those events.
Soccer, of course, is a waaaaaaaay more fluid game that relies almost entirely on teamwork to be successful. An individual player can bring skills to the table, for sure, but if those skills don't mesh with how the team as a whole plays, they're not as valuable. Which doesn't make that player a bad player, just a bad fit in a particular system.
And through all this, I mean "value" as a concrete number that can be measured against other players in a similar role, not as a subjective judgment of a player's ability. Soccer, although it's trying, does not lend itself to that kind of analysis because of its wholly team-based nature; it's often hard to do an apples-to-apples for midfielder X vs. midfielder Y, because of the roles they play in their particular teams.
"The key to any team, though, is that elusive "chemistry" that makes players want to play for each other."
This, 100%. Look at PSG for the best example of this - they spent the last 4-5 years assembling the biggest pile of talent one team has seen since the RM teams of the mid-2000's, and yet PSG has nothing to show for it but a pile of Ligue Un trophies they would win even without those talents.
Aaaaaaalllll this to say that analytics in soccer are not a bad thing, but they aren't nearly as mature as they need to be to be of serious use. So I don't really look at St Louis and see "undervalued" players, as much as I see players who may not get a lot of headlines but who work very well in that particular system for that particular coach. But none of it is "moneyball".
That may just be semantics, but it makes sense to me in my head...hahaha
Well, at least now we know Ned has power. Has felt like a vacuum ever since he took over after GW and MG were canned and MP agreed to be a "silent owner".
I wish Gio well, I truly do. He seems like a really great guy and loves the game I love. But this also had to be done. If it wasn't for the miraculous 2021 MLS Cup run (still lost, but made the final against all odds and then lost on PKs - can't come much closer) I think he would have been gone sooner.
We have been adrift now for almost 2 full seasons, playing out the strings of former legends waiting for them to retire, bringing in a few new players who have mostly underwhelmed. Serious FO turmoil and then a remake that, as mentioned above, seemed to create a question of who was really in charge.
I suspect there will be more surprises as we build for a new coach. I mentioned in the other thread that in August of 2012 it seemed bizarre that we suddenly traded away Troy Perkins, brought in Donovan Ricketts instead. That was all the future coach calling some shots, before even being announced as coach. I won't be shocked if we see more of that and some head scratching moves before the game plan crystalizes.
If I was in that position that is what I would ask for. Most die hard fans knew months ago that Gio wasn't cutting it - but I just had a quick conversation with several people who feel "blindsided" and "can't believe it". Classic insular Portland, they like the person therefore failure is acceptable and excusable.
Those not paying attention or with irrational thought processes are going to be pissed that we release a very injured Niezgoda, don't resign Blanco, bid adieu to Mabiala, part ways with Y Chara. And I honestly won't be shocked if between 1 and 3 of the players who we thought we were building the future with (meaning McGraw, Bravo, Evander, Moreno and Mosquera leave the team in the off season) along with potentially Asprilla and outside chance of even seeing D. Chara moved on since this is a natural "break". Many fans are going to be apoplectic about those moves - you don't want to be a new coach coming on with 5 games left to preside over missing the playoffs and then a shit storm by the fans who are irrationally attached to some players who were brought in for the last manager who failed to do anything with them. Much better to be starting in December/Jan and look like a builder rather than a destroyer in September.
You're talking about turning over 7-9 starting-caliber positions on the roster. Name me a team that has done that recently. I wish that kind of change was possible, I really do, but that's just not realistic. There's no way that either D Chara, a club legend who still contributes positively, or Evander, who they paid $10M to acquire less than a year ago, are going anywhere, nor should they.
Niezgoda, Blanco, Y Chara, Mabiala are all out of contract, and it's a no brainer not to bring any of them back. Beyond that, I think maaaaybe Asprilla goes (he should, but he's also the kind of guy a lot of fans love, so they may keep him), but otherwise I think the pieces are there to build around once those guys are gone.
"you don't want to be a new coach coming on with 5 games left to preside over missing the playoffs and then a shit storm by the fans who are irrationally attached to some players who were brought in for the last manager who failed to do anything with them."
You also don't want to be a new coach coming in whose first job is "build an entire squad from scratch, in a winter window that really only allows you to get MLS talent before training starts in earnest because summer is the main window".
If a European team comes and offers $12m for Evander tomorrow and he wants to go, you don't even consider it?
I am not saying we actively try to move that much of the roster, but it really depends on who the coach is, how happy those guys really are (and how happy they think they can be under whomever the new name is), and the vision for the future.
I am not saying fire sale, but I suspect there are offers out there for some of the younger guys who may not fit into the vision of the new coach. If they are good offers, why hamstring the new coach with players he doesn't want?
Even if it was less than the $10m we paid for him, we'd have to think about it. Is he really just having a terrible season? Did we bring in a 6 and expect him to be a 10 as some have suggested? Can he be the player we need in 2024 and beyond?
Because MLS is a better league than when Diego Valeri arrived. We need a player better than Valeri if we hope to replicate past successes.
Of those 7, though, only Ricketts and Valeri were nailed-on starters. The rest were depth pieces - Kah and Urutti worked their way into starting spots but, at least in Kah's case, that's because he was the best of a bad set of options.
Churning depth is something teams do almost all the time, yes. A complete overhaul of a starting squad, as the first comment in this thread seems to suggest the Timbers will do, is not common at all.
The Timbers are in a good place right now because several of their lesser-performing starters are out of contract this winter, but I am highly skeptical there will be like-for-like replacements brought in for each departure from outside. There'll be a mix of buys and promotions, like most years.
I mean, either way, the Timbers should look a lot different next season; I'm just skeptical it'll be "cut seven, hire seven new guys".
I think you have some high hopes for roster turnover. I dont think it will happen. I think Portland believes that what they have is better than what we have seen. Which is why they let gio go and not just made roster moves. We also saw how Portland played against the liga mx teams. Meaning there is potential somewhere in this squad to play beautiful soccer. Gio just couldn't get them to do it consistently.
As for the coach. I'm on the fence of how long it will be before they sign one. 1. Because I feel like this was not a shock decision. I guarantee they have been exploring the possibility for awhile so they have been doing their do diligence on the scouting of a new coach. Probably way before the loss to Houston. 2. Why would you wait to bring in a coach and make a ton of roster turnover. This isn't 2012. We dont have a expansion team with players that are clearly not good enough for the league. We have a lot of older players that won't be here next year and a lot of young players that have room to improve but have shown glimpses. If anything you are either not going to trade the young players, or need to get the coaches perspective before you do. See what he can do with the young guys first. Otherwise you are jumping the gun on if it was a player issue or gio issue. You have to do process of elimination.
I do think that blanco, mabiala, yimmi, nieazgoda will go. I don't think asprilla, Moreno, Paredes, Mcgraw will go. Reality is that the older players are all on the last year of their contract and haven't been extended. Meaning they know the time is up.
As for the younger players. I highly doubt more than one or two will leave. Maybe ayala, or Masquera, But I doubt Mcgraw, Moreno, or bravo leave.
I'm not necessarily saying that a new coach doesn't start calling the shots sooner rather than later (in 2012 we traded Perkins and brought in Ricketts only 2.5 weeks after Spencer was fired - and that was all Porter calling that move).
Some of this may be opportunities arise and different clubs want to BUY these guys, not that the coach doesn't want them. Then it becomes a discussion of what is best for the club over the next 1-2 years and does selling a Bravo or McGraw or Moreno put you in a better position to replace them with someone who fits the style of the incoming coach and possibly even upgrade.
All, I am saying is that Gio essentially came in and accepted Porter's roster, most new coaches are not going to want to do that and are going to be very willing to turn over players at the very start of their tenure so they can build what they want quickly.
This, especially the insular Portland line. I truly hope McGraw sticks around, and maybe 1 or 2 others you mentioned. But I am ready for a rebuild. Much as I love him, I hope and pray we're not planning on keeping Chara till he's 40, as he's already showing that he's mortal and he hasn't saved us from sucking the last couple years anyway. And we never would have signed Yimmi as a DP if his last name wasn't Chara. Not that I blame Diego for that, but he prob won't be happy if we move on from Yimmi as we should. Cue the insular Portlanders who believe their sports heroes will never age out.
I think this is a mistake, we need a coach who can come in and start untangling the mess right away so he gets a good start for next year. 2024 season is a project that needs to start yesterday
I would wager that the roster will look a lot different next year, with a lot of players being out of contract. There's no point in rushing a hire to try to make sense of this pile of dirty laundry; let the new guy come in in December and work with Ned to start building a roster that's his own. It'll take a few windows to do properly, but there's literally no point to bringing in a permanent head coach right now, as opposed to post-season.
"Well, at least now we know Ned has power" do we though? Maybe this was a Heather Davis decision (LOL just kidding, for those who don't know because she's invisible Heather Davis is the supposed CEO of the Timbers) maybe it was a Paulson decision (based on his gushing goodbye letter, I'm guessing not). Maybe Gio recognizing that the locker room is lost and ship is sinking actually parted ways? We may never know.
I think the FOs of many pro teams are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They intentionally market potential and personalities. They want fans to love the players. Many smaller cities / clubs have fans who are "all in" and super emotionally invested in the players as people. Heck, I am even seeing this with Gio right now and people who want to point fingers and make excuses, who think Gio's personality and past "almosts" (and yeah, I guess the COVID cup) should be enough to grant him something akin to academic tenure - even if currently failing.
Fans get attached and I think FOs like Portland's have to consider that when making changes. It does hinder their competitiveness when they have to consider fan backlash. There probably are certain players who are essentially untouchable at their prime AND the team is successful simultaneously. I mean who wants a team to be one of the best in the league and move their best player out with no reasonable plan to bring in something better immediately? However right now is NOT that moment for PTFC, so as you said elsewhere, every player is potentially movable, no matter how painful that may be (D. Chara would be the most painful for me personally, so I would hope what happened is we bring in a 23 year old destroyer 6 and he becomes the backup, transitioning to a FO position in a couple of years).
Agree with you that a hot run at the right moment was Gio's peak. Our performance during the Leagues Cup suggested we were trying to do the same, but just were not good enough (which is what happens to older teams who are clearly on the back side of their excellence window). That window was closing rapidly in 2021 and we still managed to find some magic at the right moment and luck our way into hosting MLS cup due to many upsets in the East. We didn't go out and find players better than Valeri, Chara, Adi, etc ... we tried to continue to do it with journeymen who were good, but not great.
100% on your D. Chara take. I would love for him to be a backup, spot-starter 6 the next year or two who mentors his replacement, be it Ayala or someone else. Then retires, stays with the team in some capacity and makes Portland his permanent home. The sticking points are that both he and the team have to realize that that's the best move for him and the team in the transition to the new era. And that he's okay with Yimmi being moved out of a DP slot or moved on from TImbers altogether. Might be a tough sell.
If the only thing keeping Diego Chara happy right now is that his brother plays here, the Timbers have done a lot of things very wrong. This is a business; Y Chara's out of contract, so his status will by necessity change. I personally hope it changes to "he's wearing a different shirt next year", but Diego's a professional athlete and understands how this all works, so hopefully can handle whatever happens to his brother.
Yimmi is under contract next year. I think I saw something on transfrmarket once that showed it (and not always reliable), but people I trust all say he's still under contract next year.
I hope you're right. Also there's the fact that Diego was brought in as a DP and is no longer, so maybe he'd understand it as the natural progression as you get older and the team looks to improve by opening up DP slots. That's if Timbers want to bring Yimmi back at all. I'm pretty much 50/50 at this point re: bringing him back at a lesser contract or not resigning him at all.
I am 100/0 to not bring him back. I'm also not sure why the Timbers have to/would ever make roster moves only once they consider the feelings of other players on the roster.
"Timbers have the strange habit of selling well before a player hits their stride (Jebo, Farfan just off the top of my head)"
I fully and totally blame Gio for the Jebo sale. He refused to play him in his best position and insisted on playing him out wide, despite plenty of evidence that he wasn't as effective out there, until Jebo finally got sick enough of that to want out.
Portland does have an "insular" issue, I think, but Jebo's not a case of that, his was all about Gio not playing him to his best.
"2021 Cup final was nice but for those keen to this stuff, it was Gio's ceiling not a new dawn."
Wow, I didn't think Ned would pull the trigger during the season. I've been a Gio defender, but this loss coupled with the very public disagreements with players absolutely forced Ned's hand. The good times were great with Gio, but it's been a miserable couple of seasons and this team lacks an identity as currently constructed.
“The good times were great with Gio.” Sure there were some fun moments. But it was mainly a root canal without nitrous.
Even the good times with Gio was kind of unconvincing to me. Sure, it was nice to win the "MLS is back" trophy and make the cup finals twice but like we sorta go there playing the kind of ball that only fans of a team could appreciate. I always felt that Gio ball was unsustainable in the long run given the progress the league's been making the last few years. now with Messi the bar has been raised. Maybe Ned felt he had to pull the trigger now or we would get lost in the Messi-led wave.
The good times were only ok and at best good with Gio, not great. Timbers continue to have the same issues they always have. Mental issues where their play is subpar until it matters (playoffs) where they overachieve and then flounder in the final (all but the build better back, covid cup, or whatever it was called). BTW, that is an issue that went across Porter AND Gio, and someone in the Front office needs to figure out WHY. He was also outcoached by more than one coach across more than a few games. All in all i thought he was good for the first few years; however, seemed to get worse the more players he got to form HIS team. Thanks Gio, All the best on your future endeavors.
Hosting the MLS Cup is great.
Regardless of context.
His time has come. He was failed, but also failed. We don’t have to pretend like he doesn’t know the shape of a soccer ball. He did some good things here. And a couple of great things. Fun guy. Decent guy, unless you’re an AR.
Hopeful in moving on. But the Gio bashing (there should be some post-mortem criticism, certainly) should stop now and maybe we can reflect on some of his achievements as well. Despite how this place has talked about Gio every time a player makes a dipshit pass, there were some GREAT successes.
Yeah, #CampGioOut was focused on a few dipshit passes here and there...
No one is arguing there weren't successes. There obviously were. Covid Cup was really fun, and the team was clicking. Yeah the 21 playoff run was great, and having an MLS Cup at home was amazing, even with the loss.
My issue, and the issue of a lot of people, was the overarching timbre of the seasons under Gio. It wasn't fun to watch. The Timbers did not play attractive, engaging soccer for the vast majority of every season under Gio. The entertainment value wa abysmal.
Sure, they'd cork off some big wins here and there (loved that PTFC had the best of the Sounders during his reign). But then they'd get embarrassingly trounced. At home. The random highs were high, but the frequent lows were very low. Two weeks of hot play at the end of the season will always struggle to make up for six or seven months of derpy, incohesive, and listless soccer. But I suppose for some fans, the ends justify the means, and all that matters is that fleeting hot run in the playoffs.
So yeah, Gio presided over some fun moments. He sure seemed a decent tournament coach. But stylistically, what imprint is he leaving behind? What players are significantly better than they were when they arrived? On a football basis, how has the club grown under his tutelage? And, most importantly, what the hell was GioBall? I don't think anyone will remember what GioBall was, because no one can actually articulate what it is. And therein lies the heart of the problem, imho. This club has zero identity on the pitch. And that comes full circle to the issue a lot of us have had with Gio.
Wish him well. Seems like a great human. I bet kids and dogs like him. But I've never been a fan of him as a coach, and seriously doubt I'll look back on the Gio Era with much fondness other than good times with friends in the stands.
But that is the past. It is time to move forward. This is a pivotal moment for the club. I hope Ned & Co are up for the challenge, and I hope MP can dredge up some of the ambition he used to have and allow this club to grow.
Onward, Rose City.
"Gio Ball"
It's backyard soccer at breakneck speed.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
Agree: it’s time to move forward. And I strongly hope the style is elevated.
I will stop the Gio bashing. I will also stop thinking about Gio almost entirely and move on to the next.
I'm already sharpening my knives for ______ Bashing lol.
Please explain how I am either Gio bashing or saying that he didn't have good achievements. I didn't, I specifically said there was good!
This is me misplacing some angst. Good point, I hope, poorly placed.
We can argue about good vs great, but you weren’t bashing. I apologize.
The biggest mystery to me is why the team has made the same defensive mistakes year after year across coaches. It's like the fundamentals don't exist--horror show back post marking, falling asleep, out of sync offside plays, facing our own goal too much, penalties conceded... The team has often been talented if mercurial in attack under both Porter and Gio, the defense has been juvenile for most of the team's MLS tenure.
The whole cold start, hot finish has really been with this team since I can remember both under Porter and Gio. It almost makes me wonder if there are huge bonuses attached to winning the cup and management said it is okay to just do well enough in the regular season as long as you go far in the playoffs.
I honestly think that it's more a league-wide byproduct of the fact that 65% of teams make the playoffs, and that this has always been a league where more teams make the playoffs than don't. Bruce Arena's Galaxy teams were famous for doing nothing for the first half or more of a season, then turning it on late. Problem is, Portland's teams haven't been as talented as some of those LAG teams, so while they were able to turn it on late, they rarely turned it into anything other than early playoff exits most years.
What would be a better system though, if not pro /rel?
I think the structure of MLS sort of forces the situation.
If a bottom of the table team can't fight against relegation , or fight for promotion, and there aren't solid financial reasons to remain in the top league, what do people have to cheer for towards the end of the season?
Getting into the playoffs, or failing that, winning some other trophy - Leagues Cup, Cascadia Cup, etc.
I didn't say anything one way or the other about whether MLS' system was good or bad. It is what it is, and it's not gonna change (and I like the playoffs). But given that a majority of teams make the playoffs, it stands to reason that some teams will just tick over in neutral until they have to turn it on to qualify for the playoffs.
I guess it comes down to incentive. This system gives fans more incentive to attend matches- dangling the playoffs - but it gives the teams less incentive to grind it out throughout the whole season.
Don't teams really have to do that, though? I mean, Toronto in 2017 and LAFC are the only 2 teams that won SS/MLS cup recently. And both of those teams were stacked. Salary caps keep teams from adding depth that allows them to do both.
Gio, I never quite got the blue suits, but there was no denying your passion for the team and the game and your players. You had the best celebrations, even though sometimes I worried you were going to have an aneurysm. I really appreciate the work you did and some of the results your team had were and are some of my favorite memories of the team - winning the MLSiB, the wins over SKC (Blanco's screamer) and Seattle on the way to the title game. You were much more engaging and less arrogrant than Porter in press conferences, and I appreciated that. You probably didn't have to do too much coaching with Valeri and Ridgy on the squad, but when Valeri left, it really all came apart this year and I think you just ran out of ideas, or maybe you didn't have the ideas, or maybe you couldn't impart those ideas. I'm hoping you take the rest of your contract money and go on a nice vacation and recharge and learn and I am sure you will land on your feet because you obviously are a people person and can relate to just about anybody, and like any coach, you do have an ego in there. Good luck!
And now it is the Miles Joseph show. We've been clamoring for change and now it is here. I am excited to see what happens Saturday.
Wait, can Ned also fire the current owner, as well? Might as well fix both issues facing the Timbers at once...
no
🙏
Smell ya later Gio! Man, it's about time. Hopefully we hire someone that has a fun style, or at minimum one that isn't physically painful to watch.
ABOUT FUCKING TIME
I guess I'm never going to find out what Gio-ball is!
Seriously though, I've had my suspicions that Gio, had the luck to have Valeri, Chara and Blanco in peak form and Gio did not get in the way. Some teams, like Spain's WT, can succeed despite the coaching staff and I think for 2-3 years the Timbers were that.
Gio-ball is Cosmos-ball in green, and sometimes hideous pink, uniforms.
I am hoping a strong assistant from Europe or someone with some European coaching experience.
I'm hoping for a Colombian coach actually.
I'm hoping for the best coach the Timbers can find, regardless of provenance.
Me too, I'm kidding.
We went to the Timbers' meet and greet last night. Got a "free" hot dog and an over priced beer. Scored a dozen player autographs and all of the players seemed to be in good humor. I really enjoyed punking Evander and Bingham when I asked each of them if they'd heard the breaking news about who's been hired to replace Gio...I told them it was Ted Lasso and they both burst out laughing. That was fun. When I got to Bravo and said "Gio Out!" he flashed a wide smile and a gave a thumbs up. Pretty cool!
I had several of those hots dogs and too much "free" coca cola. Told Ivacic that we love him no matter what in Slovenian and he looked shocked and pleased. Told Moreno we need a Columbian coach now and he cracked up. Wrote BEAT VANCOUVER in the whiteboard in the dressing room. Good event. Glad I went.
Excellent!
"Where are the Timbers now? They have a reviled owner who covered for a sexual predator. They have an unproven, first-time general manager whose debut season has been a mess. They have a mediocre roster, falling attendance numbers, and a general atmosphere of instability.
"It’s ugly stuff, and it has been for some time now. In the turmoil of the last two years, which saw the departure of Diego Valeri and the firings of Wilkinson and Mike Golub, Savarese was always a class act—the one representative of the club who consistently conducted himself with grace and humility, who embraced the city and its values."
— Abe Asher in the Merc
I do have to say that I have seen multiple vehement defenses of Gio over the last 18 hours since this news broke ... as though Gio was somehow going to be the lighthouse in the storm while failing at his own job (the lighthouse wasn't lit people!).
Valeri got old. Wilkinson and Golub were fired for good reason (see covering for sexual predator in previous paragraph).
You can't fire an owner. In a franchise system the parent company can force them to sell when they own a minority stake - often based on malevolent behavior clauses in their bylaws/operating agreements, but obviously they don't want to invoke those or they would have done so a year ago. MP is here, in the background, until he decides he is not. For those who can't accept that and choose to not partake, that is perfectly legit and your choice. Some people moved to Canada and Russia after the last couple of elections too because they could no longer be associated with America.
But holding up Gio's better qualities while ignoring his significant shortcomings as a coach - his primary job, while bashing the rest of the organization just seems like gratuitous intentional whining. I have seen several fans make similar complaints on line, that Gio was great and none of this is his fault - placing all of the blame for Gio's failures at the feet of Ned or GW or MP ... or Paul Riley which was the funniest comment I read on FB somewhere. None of that is true. While the whole organization certainly has challenges right now, where they go from here is to hire a new coach who can start over with a new philosophy and become a competitive team again. It isn't going to happen quickly and there will be pain and mis-steps along the way, but Gio had totally lost the locker room and wasn't the guy to do that.
I said above Gio is a good guy. I wish him well. But good guys who are failing at their job and all of their team has given up on them isn't the solution either.
"You can't fire an owner. In a franchise system the parent company can force them to sell when they own a minority stake - often based on malevolent behavior clauses in their bylaws/operating agreements, but obviously they don't want to invoke those or they would have done so a year ago."
Correct. MLS as the parent company has never done that. The threat of ultimately going that route is what finally got Dell Loy Hansen to sell RSL, but they didn't force a sale there. And Hank Paulson has been called a "model owner" by Don Garber, so I wouldn't hold my breath for it happening in Portland.
(I just bring that up as context, I don't disagree with anything you wrote)
I'm not holding my breath that MP will sell the team. I'm just finding other things to do with my time than root.
If i were mp.
Coach search:
1. Go find a coach somewhere in the Ajax system. I don't even care if they are coaching the u-16 team. Just ask yourself a couple questions. How long have they been with Ajax? Is their u-16 team playing the Ajax style? Then talk to them about how they see the game tactically and how they deal with player issues on and off the field. The coaches responsibility is 3 things. The system and tactics they use. The way they handle players on and off the field, and how they organize their staff. It really is that simple. So even if they are coaching a u-16 or u-18 team, those principles translate between the "ranks" of soccer. It's the foundation of the coach. The only thing I would say that does not translate is the player issues. The older they get, the worse the issues get. But this is why I think you could realistically find a coach in a club like Ajax or bvb. There are plenty of good coaches that are qualified with years of experience in those programs. Guys or girls that could be willing to come to Portland for a first team coaching job. Be a coach that is coaching the u18, u16 team that is many coaches removed from ever coaching the first team, or get you dream opportunity to be a first team coach now and make 3x to 4x the salary to go with it.
Sporting director:
2. Find someone in the scouting department of a European club. Go look at the clubs that constantly hit the mark with young players. Like Brighton, bvb, rb Leipzig, etc. Then throw cash at them. Ask the question. Be a scout? Or build an entirely new foundation for our club under your vision. It's the next step in a scout's career and a great opportunity. They would be making substantially more money and doing it in a massive market. America. The reality is that you need a sporting director that has global reach and relationships. Someone who has been a part of those kind of clubs that do. Imagine a former scout from somewhere in the bvb system. He comes to Portland as a sporting director. 1. He has relationships all over the world. 2. Say that transfer season opens up, he makes a call to his former colleagues at bvb. (Or wherever he came from) "hey, is there any youth player you guys were looking at but decided against it? Why did you decide against it? Former colleague: we liked this other player better. Sporting director: cool thanks.
Now we have a lead on a potential high value target that is flying under the radar. And before you say, "other teams will be looking at them too" yeah maybe, but why is it that bvb always finds diamonds in the roughs and others don't? The reality is that they have built a brand of giving young players opportunities and having a brand of player development. Making them first choice for young players.
That is exactly who Portland HAVE TO BE. So sporting director who can set up a development program based on proven tactics and success. Someone who also global connections.
We all know money rules the world. So here is my thought process. Go get a marsch, a gio, a porter, and have a couple good seasons or a couple bad. Go spend 10 million dollars on a Evander, 8 million on a yimmi, 6 million on a nieazgoda, and the transfer market is only getting more and more expensive.
(Or)
Go spend 10 million on a sporting director that can set up your brand for years and years of success based on proven tactics. Someone who drastically expands your brands reach, and instead of overpaying for established players, someone who knows how to identify qualities young players that at a fraction of the cost, but sell-on at a profit. Making sure that your club is always in a sustainable and profitable business model. Someone who can build a brand of a place people will want to come. Not be bribed to come.
(And)
Go spend big and take a chance on a undervalued coach from a club like Ajax. Someone far removed from first team opportunity but has all the training, and tutelage to implement the same style of play that you want your brand to be associated with.
Money talks people and we are no longer in a position to try and spend to keep up. It's time to put a defining stamp on our club. Something gio never did. Our play should never change with the coach but should be consistent and we have never had that under Spencer, porter, or gio.
"Someone who can build a brand of a place people will want to come. Not be bribed to come."
That someone ain't coming from one of the premier clubs in Europe (pretty much any of the clubs you named). That someone would almost certainly have to be "bribed" to come here. MLS is not a league that rewards having a system like Ajax; the desire for parity in US sports leagues almost by definition prevents that sort of thing from taking root.
"The reality is that they have built a brand of giving young players opportunities and having a brand of player development."
The MLS system of territories for young players means that the Timbers are at a pretty significant disadvantage here; the Timbers' territory is Oregon and Idaho, basically. So the problem is one of pipeline; the Sounders can draw from Seattle and Spokane, the Earthquakes from all of Northern California including the Bay Area, and RSL can draw from Utah, southern Nevada, and Arizona. The population imbalance there means the Timbers will always struggle to build a robust pipeline.
MLS is loosening its rules around territories, for sure, but teams still can't poach players within a certain radius of another team's stadium (it's either 75 or 100 miles, I can't be sure). So while the idea of building a "Timbers brand" from the U9's up sounds good, the demographic realities of Oregon don't really lend themselves to it.
My first comment.
"Someone who can build a brand of a place people will want to come. Not be bribed to come."
That was related to future players coming to the Timbers. Not to the coach. We will obviously have to bribe a good coach from a good club to come to portland. Instead of over paying and over promising players to convince them to come to Portland. Our brand will make them look to an opportunity. Like all young players look at teams like Salzburg, bvb, Ajax, etc.
"The reality is that they have built a brand of giving young players opportunities and having a brand of player development."
This was not talking about players from Oregon. By mls rules they only have the Timbers as an option. But players from all over the world are open game. That was the point of that statement.
There is no world in which promising European youngsters - U18's - are going to come to Portland to develop their skills, no matter who the technical director is. MLS just isn't that technically proficient related to the leagues/teams you mention.
You are thinking short term. All of this is on a 5 and 10 year plan. I am looking long term. I take it you aren't in sales. I have been in sales for 20 years. I look at long term and short term projections. If we start to develop and move on players from north and South America and show a history of success in developing them behind a strong coach and sporting director, long term we will be a destination spot for u18 players that see an easier route to first team play and a bigger platform. Play in mls or sit in the youth academies of chelsea, Liverpool, Ajax, barca, bvb. Etc. Behind 60 other players. Which would you choose?
"Play in mls or sit in the youth academies of chelsea, Liverpool, Ajax, barca, bvb"
If I'm a promising 19 year old? I choose Europe every time, either now or 20 years from now. Why? Because of the list of teams you keep repeating, mostly. if a kid goes to Chelsea's academy and doesn't cut it, there's a million other destinations for him to go to. That kid can catch on with another English team's academy, or go to another country and try his luck there as a free agent/walkon/whatever the terminology is. The opportunities there are just far more numerous than they are here.
That doesn't exist in the US, and probably won't in 20 years either. If that promising 19 year old from, let's say the Netherlands, comes to the Timbers academy and doesn't make the cut, is he going to go down to San Jose? out to Nashville? Nope, he's probably going back to Europe to try his luck there, because again, within about a six hour radius of his home in the Netherlands he's got 4-6 countries, dozens of leagues, and hundreds of teams to audition for.
I just don't see the US becoming a major pipeline for anything but US and Central/South American talent, as it currently is. And that's not a bad thing, because that recruitment has expanded greatly in the last 5-10 years and will keep doing so.
"That kid can catch on with another English team's academy, or go to another country and try his luck there as a free agent/walkon/whatever the terminology is."
So go to a first team or move to another academy. Again, are you in marketing or sales? Cause I think your bias is standing in your way of logical thinking.
Imagine that conversation in your head. What would you say to the kid that strikes a sense of logic in him. And again, how do you think Ajax, bvb, Leipzig, got their reputation of being a team that gives young players talent. Through years of developing selling players. Portland could be no different. Leipzig is a very good example as a team that came out of nowhere and became a sell on club and a destination for young players.
How many coaches in the European pipeline want to come to MLS? They want to work their way up into European coaching jobs, not come to MLS and lose that opportunity. How many coaches have gone from MLS to European clubs.
It depends on how you sell it and how much effort you want to put into selling the idea to the coach. You think a coach from a u16 or u18 team wouldn't jump at the opportunity to coach a first team while making 3x to 4x the money? Especially when you consider the fact he is probably 5 to 7 years away from being a first team coach. That's even if they promote from within and don't replace the head coach with a "big name" that everyone wants. Most coaches start small and coach in lower leagues to get a chance to move up. Mls is a good jumping point.
1. Continued success in a salary cap league is impressive. It puts more emphasis on coaching. Other teams and leagues can be devided by the have and have nots. Mls is only divided by the have and have nots in dp's. Even then a team designated as a have not, can still win. Just like the haves (toronto) can fail so miserably.
2. Mls actually gives head coaches a chance. They are not quick to fire for failure. Such had been said by different coaches in the leagues. Coaches who have been asked by others in South America and Europe what it is like to coach in mls. They say the difference is trust and not feeling the stress of being fired at any moment like in Europe.
Both of these on top of an opportunity are a good way to convince a coach looking to get into a head coaching job for a first time. Knowing they are actually given time
This is great in theory. Just not sure how realistic it is
It is very realistic.
"Vos (Amstelveen, April 24, 1983), has been Ajax U23 coach since February last season. Vos worked as a youth coach in Amsterdam for ten years. He coached Ajax U17 and U18, and was assistant coach to Mitchell van der Graag at Ajax U23. In November 2021, Vos moved to Rangers FC. At the Scottish club, he was assistant coach to Giovanni van Bronckhorst till the end of 2022."
Here is a coach that was a youth coach for 10 years, then left to join rangers as an assistant coach. Then went back to Ajax on a one year deal. That whole statement shows a coach that was tired of waiting for an opportunity and left, not to be a head coach somewhere else, but to be an assistant at another.
People honestly overly fantasize Europe. Coaches want opportunity. Doesn't matter where they are from. If they feel under appreciated they will look elsewhere. Here is a coach that was signed to a one year deal and only just extended based on results and only to a two year extension. If I were Portland I would go and request a conversation with him from Ajax to view his interest in the job.
"People honestly overly fantasize Europe"
I mean, you have spent several paragraphs in several comments in just this thread doing exactly that, right? Even in this very comment.
You can't have it both ways - you can't strongly advocate for a European-style development system and simultaneously bemoan that people "overly fantasize Europe", because hoping to set up an Ajax USA, as far as development goes, is a pretty textbook example of that.
I am not overly fantasizing Europe. A clubs system is not Europe. It is a system. If I were over fantasizing about Europe I would be like the rest of you on here and saying no Coach would ever come to mls. No player would ever come to mls.
Apart from the fact I've never said no coach would ever come to MLS, the statement "no player would ever come to MLS" without a system in place is demonstrably false. Look around MLS right now and there's young players from Central and South America on pretty much every team in the league.
I have no insight into the makeup of any academies, Timbers or otherwise, but sourcing talent from not-America doesn't really seem to be a problem for most MLS teams at this point in time, so I'm not sure how much of an advantage is gained by spending 10 years building out a somehow not-European-but-still-Ajax-style academy.
MLS can improve its scouting greatly without doing that, I think.
I don't think they can. Ir they would have by now. How long have we had an academy? How many players have we sold to Europe? Or anywhere else? We release more young players than sell on. And yes teams don't have an issue finding players but the level of those young players are not considered high value.
I love the thought. Just don’t be surprised when it doesn’t happen
It would show a lack of ambition and no understanding of where we really are. We can either prepare for decades to come or keep trying to play keeping up with teams we can't. Other teams have a huge budget for player acquisitions among other things. We don't. So we either need to do everything we can to attract young quality players with our style and development program or we will be fucked long term. Like Blazers fucked
Or Earthquakes fucked. That went on for years and years.
Well now I just feel like the dog that caught the car. I'm sure I'll find something new to complain about soon enough though hahaha.
I'm totally willing to write the rest of this season off if it means the search for a permanent replacement is done right. That's obviously not a guarantee, but I'm glad they didn't just rush into a permanent decision now, and that they're taking the time to do a proper search.
My fear is that the Timbers will drag the search into next year and then we'll be giving the new coach a free pass because they only had a week of pre season.
Personally, I'd look at a few assistant managers in the Eredivisie. Let's find a coach who can coach a system and use it.
I would imagine, particularly if they miss the playoffs, that a new coach will be in place by the end of this calendar year. Which is still kinda tight, but workable.
I hope it is with a couple weeks left in the season. This way the coach can see what he has. But also so he can have some input on player signings before they get signed. Which I am sure they already have a list of players ready to go for with the open cap space and dp spots that will be available.
yeah, I'm sure they have a list of both coaching candidates and potential available players - it would seem that the list of players might morph a bit depending on who they bring in as coach, but they're presumably ready for either occurrence at any time.
For real. No need to rush this decision. They need to take their time and get this right.
I have to say that I'm sad to see Gio go. I think he did some really good things with the Timbers, but it was also time for his tenure to come to an end. It will be interesting to see where the Timbers go from here, as it should be clear to the players that the status quo isn't going to cut it. We are either going to see a renewed effort, or the players will pack it up and close things down.
What I'm hopeful for is a more pressure oriented team, and some open and free soccer play.
respectfully disagree, I saw him tinker with the counter system when he took over and subsequently built nothing in terms of his own style or fingerprint on the team
not only that but we would buy players just to play them in the wrong position half the time
I think the "player out of positions" is preference. No player has been put of the position they normally play before they came to Timbers. Besides Evander.
My preference would be this based on player availability.
Boli
Evander Moreno
Paredes chara yimmi
Bravo zup Mcgraw masquera
Ivacic
Go back to a Christmas tree to get our best players on the field. If we are running a 4-3-3 this might shock people but I would go
Moreno boli antony
Paredes chara yimmi
Bravo zup Mcgraw masquera
Ivacic
Mostly because I don't like Evanders work ethic on the defensive side of the ball. Just like I don't like eryks. They don't track back enough to help out. I think yimmi puts more effort into both sides of the ball.
If it's a 4-2-3-1 then it's OK for Evander to be in the middle because just like you saw with Valeri on his decline, you could actually play Evander more as a false 9. Floating under boli. This essential puts the RM and LM deeper to help out defensively and makes it a 4-4-2 on counters and defense.
If we were playing a diamond 4-4-2 then I would put
Boli mora
Evander
Paredes chara yimmi
Bravo zup Mcgraw masquera
Ivacic
If I were running a 3-4-3 which I would set up as a 3-4-2-1 I would have
Boli
Evander Moreno
Bravo Paredes DC masquera
Araujo zup Mcgraw
Ivacic
So it's preference. But players should be able to adequately cover multiple positions.
After the last game and mostly poor run of form it’s not a surprise but I think the organization with MP at the helm is still in trouble. If you’re a solid head coach with a real resume what would convince you to manage here?
Without a big commitment to spend, drop dead wrought, and let a coach really build a team around an identity of play it’s going to be extremely hard to get anyone. Doubt the Timbers do much big spending and instead get a young DP and mid salary DP with a few tam additions. I’d like to be proven wrong but I’m not super optimistic about a new hire. Seems like it could be a Gio 2.0, lower level successful coach that comes in motivated and then goes out after a few seasons. Guess that’s kind of being a pro manager at this level though.
we have mabiala, blanco and goda coming off the books. MP has shown he is willing to roll the dice. Just need better scouting for the dice to come up 7s. Evander is clearly a class act, mosquera is top notch, Santi lots of promise. I would think the chance to add a few more pieces to that would entice a lot of coaches. Chance right away to find impact players that match your tactical expectations seems like a good draw
Blanco was a huge player here. If they had him in his prime it would be pretty amazing. There’s definitely holes to be filled and cap space. I’m not positive their willing to produce or that they have guys wanting to come here even if they scout the “right” guys.
I think the problem is the roster construction. We've brought in a number of young players and often hesitated at letting go of established older players. So we have a number of raw players and waning older players with very little in between.
Also, the problem with younger players like Moreno, is that they view the team has a stepping stone to greater things. That's okay in some respects, however when you have 4-5 players looking for the next big thing, they often neglect the present.
The main problem was the players brought in were not being used to execute a game model. We have two attacking full backs and wingers, which seems to dictate using width. However, we've never had forwards whose strength is crosses into the penalty area.
Ned said recently on Soccer Made in Portland that their focus on player signings in the near future will be on players in their prime. He said that they’ve focused on young players recently and that’s great, but now it’s time to get some in prime, ready to contribute players. Araujo-like signings, although hopefully better (though Araujo is still TBD on how good he will be)
interesting. I wonder if there are dollars available to get guys truly in their prime, and not on the decline phase of said prime for a discount. I'm trusting Ned at this point, he's done decently overall.
There absolutely will be with Mabiala, Blanco, and Niezgoda all for sure coming off the books, and probably more
Yeah, I know a lot of dead money is rolling off the books - up to about 30% of payroll, theoretically, if everyone out of contract is let go and not renewed/options not picked up. The question for me is how much of it Ned will be allowed to spend. Hopefully all of it, but this team is such a mess right now I'm not taking that for granted.
As I said in the other thread, I don't have a list of names, but there's undoubtedly several assistant coaches on current coaching staffs that are looking for a step up and a challenge, and someone like that might not be the worst fit here.
I'd love a 'big name' coach too, but also don't forget, CP was a college coach for most of his career before he came to Portland and he absolutely fit your arc, so another coach in that vein wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, if Ned gets the hire right.
But I do agree that MP being at the helm is not ideal; sadly that's not gonna change, though, so I guess all we can do is hope we're overstating that risk.
On current assistants, depends on which team. Also those guys are used to and will demand a well run organization that will spend to the best of it abailities. MP, yeah, is unfortunately going to be a hurdle. Who wants to work for a guy who basically covered up sexual harassment? And let's not forget taht even though Ned appears to be an ok guy, he' doesn't yet have much of a track recordfor success.
The silver lining for whomever we hire - especially if we go foreign - is that Ned probably understamds weird salary cap/roster rules as well as anyone. Not saying he's Chris Henderson or Ernst Tanner but there are worst GMs in the league than him.
i don't necessarily have a list - ok, I do but those guys already have gigs and probably aren't going to drop whatever they're oding to now to save us. For now, I can think of a coule of names: Feretti, BJ Callaghan, Kah, etc. Even Marsch (gulp). As for international - just don't hire Phil Neville or Sam Allardyce. Hey, what is Pirlo doint these days - I'd give him an interview.
Isn't Frank Lampard looking for a job?!
Though it’s my pipe dream: Curtin.
He'd be great, but not going to pry him away.
How about the Timbers emulate what Philly does for him. Get a long-term identity, get a solid academy to train kids in said identity so we have a steady stream of kids they can call up. Then get solid DPs and some other mls players to round it out.
That's why JC has been successful.
Absolutely correct.
Mine too, but he just signed an extension that keeps him in Philly until 2026.
Don’t follow the Union closely so don’t know much about his tactics, flexibility, sub patterns etc. But I do know his guys play for him. I could see that when they came to PP last year. A manager who commands the respect, the belief of the players, is just as important as tactics etc., maybe more so. I hope the search takes that into consideration.
Yeah, and there’s a good chance they get another guy in that vein. Despite the last two seasons Gio has been the winningest coach here in MLS. Long term success with guys like Paulson at the helm sounds likely wishful thinking.
The real question is whether MP understands that it is now the era of MLS 4.0 - thanks in part to Messi. Moneyball isn't going to work if you don't have an academy and can leverage all your resources - especially in a small market. If he wants to hire some unproven (coaching-wise as I don't think mls experience is necessary) individual at the pro-level or someone whose expereince is solely at youth level - then well we'll be right back to square one in a few years.
Is there anyone around Peregrine that can tell MP to get real? To maybe just sell the team or at least take on additional investors so we can have better resources? Is there any "no guy" in the building who can read him the riot act? Same for Ned. Does he understand that we need a tactical identity and a game plan to compete in a Messi-era league? And no offense to Ned but I'm not sure his idea of soccer is what excities fans. For all I know, he thinks it ok to go play 1990s era usa nats style. Or even the dreaded mepty bucket.
"Moneyball isn't going to work if you don't have an academy and can leverage all your resources"
I'm sorry to be pedantic, and I'm not picking on you, but I see the word "moneyball" thrown around a lot, by a lot of people and...this isn't what moneyball is.
"Moneyball", by definition, is spending your limited funds on players with skillsets that other teams do not value, thus getting value where other teams don't see it. In baseball, "moneyball" started with the A's finding players who maybe had low batting averages, but had insanely high on base percentages; the A's realized that you can't score runs without being on base, so they got guys who could get on base.
As the OBP skill got valued, teams started casting a wider net and trying to find other undervalued skillsets; every team staffed up their analytics departments in the arms race to perfect that hunt. Now, every team has a robust analytics department and "moneyball" is less about finding undervalued skillsets as it is about maximizing outcomes. All the rule changes MLB implemented this season were in part a reaction to that shift in outlook; baseball had become purely about strikeouts and home runs, thanks to analytics.
All this is to say that "moneyball" as a concept doesn't really exist in soccer; there are no undervalued skillsets, because the game, as a true team game, is fundamentally different from baseball, which is an individual sport (batter v . pitcher, batter v. outfielder) masquerading as a team game.
Soccer teams obviously also have analytics, but they're used vastly differently, and can't be depended on for projection nearly as much as baseball stats can.
"To maybe just sell the team or at least take on additional investors so we can have better resources?"
Honestly, that would be an OK outcome in a world where MP is never gonna sell. Build out an ownership group of 10 or so wealthy people who can inject money and new ideas into the club.
If there are no undervalued skillsets, why do I see a lot of guys who can run and maybe dribble, but can't pass and definitely can't finish? I'm sure there are a lot of guys who may be undervalued because they are a half-step slower but can cross on a dime and finish.
I think there is a lot of room for improvement in the soccer world in the US, and if any team is going to need "moneyball" to get an edge, why not the Timbers.
St. Louis seems like a good example of a team that has what you need, a couple of key stars, and a bunch of hard working "undervalued" players.
The key to any team, though, is that elusive "chemistry" that makes players want to play for each other. I think ultimately that was what was failing Gio because he rarely settled on an 11 and had a rotating cast. I think it created an environment where guys were pitted against each other and they started looking out for themselves. I don't have high hopes that the team can all of a sudden start playing for each other now that Gio is gone.
"I'm sure there are a lot of guys who may be undervalued because they are a half-step slower but can cross on a dime and finish."
If they can finish, they're almost certainly valued properly or close to it.
My whole point with explaining "moneyball" is that soccer is (obviously) fundamentally different from baseball as a sport. Baseball is a sport where every play has a discrete, narrow set of outcomes determined by a single individual (pitch can be hit or missed, ball can be hit or missed, fielding play can be made or missed), so it's pretty straightforward to assign a value to each of those events.
Soccer, of course, is a waaaaaaaay more fluid game that relies almost entirely on teamwork to be successful. An individual player can bring skills to the table, for sure, but if those skills don't mesh with how the team as a whole plays, they're not as valuable. Which doesn't make that player a bad player, just a bad fit in a particular system.
And through all this, I mean "value" as a concrete number that can be measured against other players in a similar role, not as a subjective judgment of a player's ability. Soccer, although it's trying, does not lend itself to that kind of analysis because of its wholly team-based nature; it's often hard to do an apples-to-apples for midfielder X vs. midfielder Y, because of the roles they play in their particular teams.
"The key to any team, though, is that elusive "chemistry" that makes players want to play for each other."
This, 100%. Look at PSG for the best example of this - they spent the last 4-5 years assembling the biggest pile of talent one team has seen since the RM teams of the mid-2000's, and yet PSG has nothing to show for it but a pile of Ligue Un trophies they would win even without those talents.
Aaaaaaalllll this to say that analytics in soccer are not a bad thing, but they aren't nearly as mature as they need to be to be of serious use. So I don't really look at St Louis and see "undervalued" players, as much as I see players who may not get a lot of headlines but who work very well in that particular system for that particular coach. But none of it is "moneyball".
That may just be semantics, but it makes sense to me in my head...hahaha
I can't possibly like this enough.
Yeah, it is so tough to be a pro manager. I wish the dude well in the future.
man my name is gonna age like fine wine
Well, at least now we know Ned has power. Has felt like a vacuum ever since he took over after GW and MG were canned and MP agreed to be a "silent owner".
I wish Gio well, I truly do. He seems like a really great guy and loves the game I love. But this also had to be done. If it wasn't for the miraculous 2021 MLS Cup run (still lost, but made the final against all odds and then lost on PKs - can't come much closer) I think he would have been gone sooner.
We have been adrift now for almost 2 full seasons, playing out the strings of former legends waiting for them to retire, bringing in a few new players who have mostly underwhelmed. Serious FO turmoil and then a remake that, as mentioned above, seemed to create a question of who was really in charge.
I suspect there will be more surprises as we build for a new coach. I mentioned in the other thread that in August of 2012 it seemed bizarre that we suddenly traded away Troy Perkins, brought in Donovan Ricketts instead. That was all the future coach calling some shots, before even being announced as coach. I won't be shocked if we see more of that and some head scratching moves before the game plan crystalizes.
So do you think the coach will be appointed but not take over until next year?
Yes.
If I was in that position that is what I would ask for. Most die hard fans knew months ago that Gio wasn't cutting it - but I just had a quick conversation with several people who feel "blindsided" and "can't believe it". Classic insular Portland, they like the person therefore failure is acceptable and excusable.
Those not paying attention or with irrational thought processes are going to be pissed that we release a very injured Niezgoda, don't resign Blanco, bid adieu to Mabiala, part ways with Y Chara. And I honestly won't be shocked if between 1 and 3 of the players who we thought we were building the future with (meaning McGraw, Bravo, Evander, Moreno and Mosquera leave the team in the off season) along with potentially Asprilla and outside chance of even seeing D. Chara moved on since this is a natural "break". Many fans are going to be apoplectic about those moves - you don't want to be a new coach coming on with 5 games left to preside over missing the playoffs and then a shit storm by the fans who are irrationally attached to some players who were brought in for the last manager who failed to do anything with them. Much better to be starting in December/Jan and look like a builder rather than a destroyer in September.
You're talking about turning over 7-9 starting-caliber positions on the roster. Name me a team that has done that recently. I wish that kind of change was possible, I really do, but that's just not realistic. There's no way that either D Chara, a club legend who still contributes positively, or Evander, who they paid $10M to acquire less than a year ago, are going anywhere, nor should they.
Niezgoda, Blanco, Y Chara, Mabiala are all out of contract, and it's a no brainer not to bring any of them back. Beyond that, I think maaaaybe Asprilla goes (he should, but he's also the kind of guy a lot of fans love, so they may keep him), but otherwise I think the pieces are there to build around once those guys are gone.
"you don't want to be a new coach coming on with 5 games left to preside over missing the playoffs and then a shit storm by the fans who are irrationally attached to some players who were brought in for the last manager who failed to do anything with them."
You also don't want to be a new coach coming in whose first job is "build an entire squad from scratch, in a winter window that really only allows you to get MLS talent before training starts in earnest because summer is the main window".
If a European team comes and offers $12m for Evander tomorrow and he wants to go, you don't even consider it?
I am not saying we actively try to move that much of the roster, but it really depends on who the coach is, how happy those guys really are (and how happy they think they can be under whomever the new name is), and the vision for the future.
I am not saying fire sale, but I suspect there are offers out there for some of the younger guys who may not fit into the vision of the new coach. If they are good offers, why hamstring the new coach with players he doesn't want?
What European team is going to offer $12 million for a player that hasn't shown himself capable to truly compete in MLS?
Even if it was less than the $10m we paid for him, we'd have to think about it. Is he really just having a terrible season? Did we bring in a 6 and expect him to be a 10 as some have suggested? Can he be the player we need in 2024 and beyond?
Because MLS is a better league than when Diego Valeri arrived. We need a player better than Valeri if we hope to replicate past successes.
I miss Kah's belly rub and shoe tying abilities. He was a such a character, master entertainer.
Notably missing from that description: ability to defend
Of those 7, though, only Ricketts and Valeri were nailed-on starters. The rest were depth pieces - Kah and Urutti worked their way into starting spots but, at least in Kah's case, that's because he was the best of a bad set of options.
Churning depth is something teams do almost all the time, yes. A complete overhaul of a starting squad, as the first comment in this thread seems to suggest the Timbers will do, is not common at all.
The Timbers are in a good place right now because several of their lesser-performing starters are out of contract this winter, but I am highly skeptical there will be like-for-like replacements brought in for each departure from outside. There'll be a mix of buys and promotions, like most years.
I mean, either way, the Timbers should look a lot different next season; I'm just skeptical it'll be "cut seven, hire seven new guys".
I think you have some high hopes for roster turnover. I dont think it will happen. I think Portland believes that what they have is better than what we have seen. Which is why they let gio go and not just made roster moves. We also saw how Portland played against the liga mx teams. Meaning there is potential somewhere in this squad to play beautiful soccer. Gio just couldn't get them to do it consistently.
As for the coach. I'm on the fence of how long it will be before they sign one. 1. Because I feel like this was not a shock decision. I guarantee they have been exploring the possibility for awhile so they have been doing their do diligence on the scouting of a new coach. Probably way before the loss to Houston. 2. Why would you wait to bring in a coach and make a ton of roster turnover. This isn't 2012. We dont have a expansion team with players that are clearly not good enough for the league. We have a lot of older players that won't be here next year and a lot of young players that have room to improve but have shown glimpses. If anything you are either not going to trade the young players, or need to get the coaches perspective before you do. See what he can do with the young guys first. Otherwise you are jumping the gun on if it was a player issue or gio issue. You have to do process of elimination.
I do think that blanco, mabiala, yimmi, nieazgoda will go. I don't think asprilla, Moreno, Paredes, Mcgraw will go. Reality is that the older players are all on the last year of their contract and haven't been extended. Meaning they know the time is up.
As for the younger players. I highly doubt more than one or two will leave. Maybe ayala, or Masquera, But I doubt Mcgraw, Moreno, or bravo leave.
not if Gio brought in some of those dudes, which there a couple I'd argue he did and we will get rid of. Theres also Llamosa who is gone baby gone
I'm not necessarily saying that a new coach doesn't start calling the shots sooner rather than later (in 2012 we traded Perkins and brought in Ricketts only 2.5 weeks after Spencer was fired - and that was all Porter calling that move).
Some of this may be opportunities arise and different clubs want to BUY these guys, not that the coach doesn't want them. Then it becomes a discussion of what is best for the club over the next 1-2 years and does selling a Bravo or McGraw or Moreno put you in a better position to replace them with someone who fits the style of the incoming coach and possibly even upgrade.
All, I am saying is that Gio essentially came in and accepted Porter's roster, most new coaches are not going to want to do that and are going to be very willing to turn over players at the very start of their tenure so they can build what they want quickly.
This, especially the insular Portland line. I truly hope McGraw sticks around, and maybe 1 or 2 others you mentioned. But I am ready for a rebuild. Much as I love him, I hope and pray we're not planning on keeping Chara till he's 40, as he's already showing that he's mortal and he hasn't saved us from sucking the last couple years anyway. And we never would have signed Yimmi as a DP if his last name wasn't Chara. Not that I blame Diego for that, but he prob won't be happy if we move on from Yimmi as we should. Cue the insular Portlanders who believe their sports heroes will never age out.
I think this is a mistake, we need a coach who can come in and start untangling the mess right away so he gets a good start for next year. 2024 season is a project that needs to start yesterday
I would wager that the roster will look a lot different next year, with a lot of players being out of contract. There's no point in rushing a hire to try to make sense of this pile of dirty laundry; let the new guy come in in December and work with Ned to start building a roster that's his own. It'll take a few windows to do properly, but there's literally no point to bringing in a permanent head coach right now, as opposed to post-season.
"Well, at least now we know Ned has power" do we though? Maybe this was a Heather Davis decision (LOL just kidding, for those who don't know because she's invisible Heather Davis is the supposed CEO of the Timbers) maybe it was a Paulson decision (based on his gushing goodbye letter, I'm guessing not). Maybe Gio recognizing that the locker room is lost and ship is sinking actually parted ways? We may never know.
I think the FOs of many pro teams are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They intentionally market potential and personalities. They want fans to love the players. Many smaller cities / clubs have fans who are "all in" and super emotionally invested in the players as people. Heck, I am even seeing this with Gio right now and people who want to point fingers and make excuses, who think Gio's personality and past "almosts" (and yeah, I guess the COVID cup) should be enough to grant him something akin to academic tenure - even if currently failing.
Fans get attached and I think FOs like Portland's have to consider that when making changes. It does hinder their competitiveness when they have to consider fan backlash. There probably are certain players who are essentially untouchable at their prime AND the team is successful simultaneously. I mean who wants a team to be one of the best in the league and move their best player out with no reasonable plan to bring in something better immediately? However right now is NOT that moment for PTFC, so as you said elsewhere, every player is potentially movable, no matter how painful that may be (D. Chara would be the most painful for me personally, so I would hope what happened is we bring in a 23 year old destroyer 6 and he becomes the backup, transitioning to a FO position in a couple of years).
Agree with you that a hot run at the right moment was Gio's peak. Our performance during the Leagues Cup suggested we were trying to do the same, but just were not good enough (which is what happens to older teams who are clearly on the back side of their excellence window). That window was closing rapidly in 2021 and we still managed to find some magic at the right moment and luck our way into hosting MLS cup due to many upsets in the East. We didn't go out and find players better than Valeri, Chara, Adi, etc ... we tried to continue to do it with journeymen who were good, but not great.
I'm 100% here for Diego Chara moving into the role of Head of Conditioning and Chief Chocolate Chip Cookie Officer.
Cmon you have to keep the alliteration going, it’s Chief Chocolate Chip Cookie Captain!
I'll allow it!
100% on your D. Chara take. I would love for him to be a backup, spot-starter 6 the next year or two who mentors his replacement, be it Ayala or someone else. Then retires, stays with the team in some capacity and makes Portland his permanent home. The sticking points are that both he and the team have to realize that that's the best move for him and the team in the transition to the new era. And that he's okay with Yimmi being moved out of a DP slot or moved on from TImbers altogether. Might be a tough sell.
If the only thing keeping Diego Chara happy right now is that his brother plays here, the Timbers have done a lot of things very wrong. This is a business; Y Chara's out of contract, so his status will by necessity change. I personally hope it changes to "he's wearing a different shirt next year", but Diego's a professional athlete and understands how this all works, so hopefully can handle whatever happens to his brother.
Yimmi is under contract next year. I think I saw something on transfrmarket once that showed it (and not always reliable), but people I trust all say he's still under contract next year.
I have no inside info, but everything I've seen online, including this site which I trust, says 2023 - https://www.capology.com/club/portland-timbers/salaries/2023/
It may be that there's an option year after this or something, but every site I've seen says his contract ends in December.
I hope you're right. Also there's the fact that Diego was brought in as a DP and is no longer, so maybe he'd understand it as the natural progression as you get older and the team looks to improve by opening up DP slots. That's if Timbers want to bring Yimmi back at all. I'm pretty much 50/50 at this point re: bringing him back at a lesser contract or not resigning him at all.
Diego was a DP only because of his transfer fee. Once that was paid off, he wasn't a DP anymore. He's been incredibly cheap for us given his quality.
I am 100/0 to not bring him back. I'm also not sure why the Timbers have to/would ever make roster moves only once they consider the feelings of other players on the roster.
"Timbers have the strange habit of selling well before a player hits their stride (Jebo, Farfan just off the top of my head)"
I fully and totally blame Gio for the Jebo sale. He refused to play him in his best position and insisted on playing him out wide, despite plenty of evidence that he wasn't as effective out there, until Jebo finally got sick enough of that to want out.
Portland does have an "insular" issue, I think, but Jebo's not a case of that, his was all about Gio not playing him to his best.
"2021 Cup final was nice but for those keen to this stuff, it was Gio's ceiling not a new dawn."
Yep.