Coffey, Rocky, Dunn. Moultrie subs on for Dunn. Sinclair subs on for Rocky, or Sinclair sits it out. entirely
I do think Sinclair's days of playing long minutes in heat and humidity are just about done.
The Soccer Made in Portland guys put it well recently: Portland is playing Sinc at the 8, but she's not an 8. Sinc doesn't play box-to-box at this age, in fact sometimes she doesn't even get 15-20 yards close to a ball or opponent that is her responsibility.
That, combined with the absence of Sauerbruun's intellect and vision and Norris's desire to send our fullbacks forward, is leading to enormous defensive breakdowns.
If we keep the same strategy and lineup tonight, don't be surprised if Salmon puts up 1-2 goals.
I support the Soccer Made in Portland suggestion that Rocky should be getting more minutes at the 8, then dropping Hina back to the 10.
I'd find a way to get Moultrie out there 30-45 minutes now, building toward 90 minutes during the WWC.
I would cut Sinc to 20-45 minutes, some matches playing the first half and others subbing on for 20-30 minutes, just depending on the opponent, weather, schedule, etc.
I would prefer to see Dunn, rather than Hina, as the third forward. I'd ask Dunn to utilize those great skills she displays on the National Team in supplying pressure and getting forward.
And, if Bixby has a tough go of it tonight, then it might be time to give her a reset.
I have to stop listening to SMiP when the Thorns are doing (somewhat) poorly because of of the state media vibe. Rifer is a little more critical, but both he and Clarke --somewhat understandably given their jobs-- rarely provide much in the way of real critique or analysis.
That said, I'm glad they correctly identified the issue of Sinc playing as a ten when her role asks her to play the 8....even if that's been obvious to 95% of this board for a month and half ;)
Yeah I am often frustrated by their skirting of “the issue”…last year for sure. Would still like it to be discussed a little more, but I think Chris was pretty vocal this time. They’re fine being pretty critical of Timbers players (even Yimmi), so I’m not sure why Sinc is untouchable. Rocky is the only 8 and it’s bizarre she’s not playing. Dunn at the 10 with Moultrie subbing there (although, I’d prefer Hina.) She can do an 8 also. I wanna see Hina, Rocky, or Moultrie in the midfield before Sinc. I don’t think she should be playing in this game at all, honestly. If I have to watch her slog around in 82 degree Houston heat, while Sam and the CB’s struggle (and everyone on the team really)….ugh
I want to see Coffey, Moulte and Dunn in the midfield (really Sugita and Dunn switch positions). Norris convinces Sinclaire that the heat will sap her and bringing her in at 60 will benefit everyone. I also want to see Nally in place of Menges.
Let's not let a few bad Menges games overshadow how out of her depth Nally generally looks whenever she gets real time. It's harsh, but I don't want Nally starting against any competent striker- She's just not mobile or composed enough to play at that level.
On that note, Ordonez is out, whichh allows Ebony Salmon to play centrally- Salmon on Nally is a mismatch in every sense of the word. I woudn't be surprised if Houston actually looks a little better with a more balanced front line.
Yeah, I have never felt confident with Nally at CB unfortunately. She’s slow as molasses, and is not who you wanna put on Ebony Salmon (and likely Michelle Alozie) tonight. Menges looked rough, but I’d be willing to give her another runout. She does have the tools, she just needs to kick the rust.
Also, no thanks (says the guy staring at a 96 degree forecast tomorrow, but with humidity at about 5).
ETA also thunderstorms predicted tonight, so score in the first half then be awarded the match when they cancel the second. I am a master soccer strategist
Really wish Dunn would take that RW role also. It would free up the midfield for other players, and I think she would be just as dangerous, if not more so.
Gotta say, while I both would love to get Hina into the midfield and clamored to have Dunn out wide preseason, I realllly like Dunn as a 10. She’s so good on the half turn and combining, and she brings a pace and urgency to the midfield that none of Rocky, Sinc, or Moultrie really do.
My preferred midfield would be Coffey-Hina-Dunn with Izzy or Leon out wide....but as always, we ain’t seeing that until a certain someone isn’t around anymore.
At the beginning of the season, that was my XI preference as well. I just have seen no inclination by this coach to even try Hina in as an 8. I do really like Dunn as a 10 though, but I would like her passing to clean up a little bit.
I'll say this: If Liv doesn't get the nod in Houston weather coming off consecutive excellent cameos, I don't know if she ever will when Sinc's available.
Some last minute bad news for Houston with a late scratch of Diana Ordonez and Ally Prisock, both out due to Covid. That’s a starting CB and, well, Diana Ordonez. I imagine this puts Salmon at the 9, where she’s actually more dangerous than she is out wide.
Shea Groom apparently back fit for the first time this season. Hoping to not see her so we can keep all of our players intact.
Do we make the midfield change everybody sees? Sure hope so.
Also, we’ve got Koraleva tonight. Woof, gonna be a dog fight!
Definitely a more natural fit for Salmon who has been playing out of position this season. Surprised they don't go to a 4-4-2 or something as Maria can play anywhere and still be fantastic.
Yeah Wilder and I had this done for a bit so didn't have a chance to update, but we put an * to let everyone know about the updates.
It seems like many media and pundits are noticing that a change in midfield is needed but doubt it'll happen today. I hope I'm wrong.
I am so excited, but also quite confused…is this a 442, or is Crystal playing RW? Also….Nally. At least more capable players in the midfield should help…
Tbf, she easily could have had that Rocky spot....so we might see her play in midfield at some point. This looks like a diamond to me because I don't see Moultrie out wide.
I t h ink more likely we get to see Crystal on the RW. I’m sad because I kinda always knew this would turn into Hina being on the bench once she got pushed into that position. It’s her 4th best position on the field. I’d swap Moultrie with Hina, but, I’m excited to see this group. It’s kind of a lot of changes though…I hope it doesn’t mess with the cohesion.
It's like there's some weird block Western coaches have about playing Japanese players at their best positions (Exhibit A: Yui Hasegawa as a deep-lying mid at City).
Yeah I would guess a diamond also. Dunn at the 10, and Rocky and Moultrie as the 2 8’s…with Moultrie prob getting higher up. A total formation change? Or does he just put Moultrie or Dunn in the “Hina” hybrid spot where she drops into the midfield anyways? I don’t know what the plan is lol. Did Norris watch the Spirit game and say “I want that” lol.
I guess we'll learn whether Norris sees that RW position as an inverted winger / hybrid 10 tactically or whether he was just sticking Hina there to fit her in the 11.
Disappointed Becky is still out--she's obviously needed back there. And now would be the ideal time to learn whether McGrady has a meaningful future on the squad--did she take a chainsaw or something to that thigh? Ideally, given Emily is still playing herself back into shape, there is a substitution plan rather than letting her go 90, Is Reyes ready?
Road game vs. Houston--I'll guess we squeak out of there with a 2-2 draw. "Undefeated!" "Uh, yeah, super."
Prove me wrong, Thorns. Last week I guessed a 1-3 win and got the wrong end of the number 3.
Did I know Houston has a Bayou? I just knew they have a metric buttload of refineries and chemical plants that sit next to unfortunate water.
I want to see a solid complete game from Bixby. She's had some shaky moments over the past two games; that can get inside a keeper's head. She needs to be rock solid against a team that isn't scoring well to get her confidence (and that of her backline) back.
And speaking of backline...I REALLY want to see a disciplined and well-organized defense this evening. No more of this Pogarchesque random running; stick your marks, tackle, ball-side-goal-side...knock off the ballwatching and marking space. Defending 101; it's not hard! Crap teams do it all the time when you think that "well-organized" is a common epithet for "boring and useless". I'd like to see some 2017 Menges for a change, too, thanks.
I was kidding about ballistic vests, but Koroleva? Loose the hounds!
I like when Bixby is super aggressive off her line, that will help this backline the most imo. Without Becky, she'll need to have a complete game more often for sure.
I think this Houston team obviously has underperformed on the attacking end, but they'll be asked to be good tonight. Going to be a good indicator if Natu can keep Maria in check and if Menges/Nally and Hubly can prevent Salmon from getting too many chances.
I like when Bixby controls her penalty area, whether that means coming out hard to claim or staying on her line and trusting her defenders; as a keeper either is a valid technique (coming out looks fierce, but you get jammed up in traffic and see what happens...).
One thing that I find frustrating is the unquestioning love Sauerbrunn seems to get around here.
She's a solid veteran, but she's also not Obi-Wan Brunnobi, our only hope. Here's her backline PMRs over the first three games this season:
She's good...but her being out there doesn't seem to be the Magic Elixir for Backline Awesomeness she seems to get tons of credit for. Her unit has been underwhelming a lot this season (and remember that Orlando and Kansas City were hot garbage, so it wasn't the opponents...).
So whether or not Sauerbrunn is there, Bixby needs to be on top of her game, both in the air and against shots. Another shaky game might lock her in to a very troubled place...
There has been a revolving door at RB this year with Reyna, Nally, and Natu all making starts and appearances.
My point was there is a huge drop off between Becky and the next starter/replacement at CB.
Becky isn't going to fix everything, but the xG with and without her has started to creep up slightly and the backline has been a bit more unorganized. Her presence benefits the team way more than without.
Bixby is the key to all of this, as I think Portland has 2 starters with Shelby Hogan as well. If she doesn't come off her line a lot today, that means Hubly and Menges/Nally will have to win headers against Salmon consistently...
That CB depth chart drop off makes me so sad: at one point, a few years back and at the height of her career, Menges was the best CB in the league and her lack of caps remains the worst snub in USWNT history for me. She has had a horrible time trying to recover from injury and there's still some rust on her game.
I continue to believe she'll get substantially better. Likely never to where she was in 2017, but she's only 30 and has played barely any soccer for two years. It's not like she's a 35 year old trying to salvage the last year of her career.
Her issues certainly look primarily like rust to me- Bad tackling technique (like against Wingate on Saturday), the occasional errant pass, etc etc.
In the past I’d have disagreed; Menges was as good or better, and I’d have taken Menges/Hubly as soon or sooner than Brunn/Hubly.
This season, unfortunately, you’re right. Menges has been a tire fire, and so the dropoff from Brunn - whether or not you rate her as highly as she is often rated here - really is precipitous.
That relies largely on two matches, the xG-against of which combined is barely 2. So the primary defensive issue isn’t the backline giving up better looks, something we can blame on a lack of Sauerbrunn, but a combination of freakish bad luck and Bixby’s troubles. It’s correlation, not causation.
One of the things I find frustrating about your PMR system is that not all -'s are created equal. As you wrote in the Riveting ORL recap, the negatives for most of the backline, and particularly Becky, were misplaced long passes against a pinned-back Orlando. But those -1 actions are weighted exactly the same as an accidental pass to Houston in our half or an own goal against NCC, even though the end result of the action has a completely different impact on the game state. There's also a lot of off-the-ball work and positioning done by defenders that doesn't get rewarded by the PMR system. I find the PMRs to be interesting in the context of a single game and write-up where detail is added, but hard to compare between opponents and sometimes even between players.
I agree that the backline hasn't been very cohesive, but Becky has been consistently good. Removing that and replacing with Nally (fine) and Menges (visibly rusty) has made the entire unit significantly worse. No player makes everything magically better, but can you blame fans for wanting Becky back? And as much as organizing the defense is part of the role of a veteran CB, you can't place all of the fault for her teammates' poor performances on Becky.
2017 Menges is five years and several injuries ago. Maybe it's time that we all adjust our expectations of 2023 Menges?
Agreed on all counts- Giveaways are almost always hugely contextual, especially for backlines and *especially* for backlines having to play in front of an incredibly open midfield like the Thorns currently have.
Becky's value (especially at this point in her career) is that she very rarely makes the types of mistakes we saw from Menges last week, or see from Nally whenever she plays, which stabilizes the whole squad and mitigates her own relative physical limitations. She almost always makes the "right" play, which sometimes happens to be hoofing the ball up field or out of bounds.
The “never puts a foot wrong” is where I disagree and what frustrates me about Brunn.
For a player of her c.v. I’m always unpleasantly surprises how often she’s caught out of position, coughs up a pass right to an opponent, or gets skinned.
Is she a “Reyes’ first match” trainwreck? No. But that’s kind of the point; given her experience I’d expected her to be the rock of consistency she’s typically described here, and to have imparted that degree of stability to her defense.
So when that didn’t happen I was sure it was some sort of artifact. Surely she WAS doing all those things, it just looked different.
Now? I’m not sure.
I WANT it to be true. We need that calm organization in back.
But so far this season? I honestly haven’t seen it.
"Never puts a foot wrong" is commentator talk, not us critical people here at STF. It's easy to magnify a player's or a team's reputation with the passage of time and forget the flaws, be it Becky, Sincy, or previous iterations of the Thorns. Sauerbrunn's performance at Portland has generally been in line with her previous seasons, adjusting for aging.
In 2019, Thorns defense went into a bad skid. In 2021, with Menges/Brunn as our primary pairing, we had the fewest GA and most SO of any season. I'd even argue that Hubly and Kling have been more consistent in the last 2 seasons than previous and Bixby took over as the #1 in mid-2021. We've won silverware of some sort in both of the last two seasons. We've been in the top defenses of the league in the last two seasons. That's pretty consistent. But then we have very high standards at STF.
I don’t think I agree with that- She’s not perfect, but she’s rarely, to my eyes, out of position because of an individual mistake. She (and Hubly, and Menges) are frequently isolated 1v1 because of the lack of midfield and FB support, but that’s part of the structural defensive problem- CBs shouldn’t be left 1v1...which the Thorns CBs have been all too often as of late.
She’s also in her late 30s and isn’t Naomi Girma, Sarah Gorden or whichever hyper-athletic CB you want to name, so she doesn’t have the pace to cover up her mistakes or those of others, so I think it looks worse when she has a speedy attacker running at her. “Never puts a foot wrong” is an exaggeration (she makes the occasional errant pass and isn’t always perfect in the tackle), but I do think they severely miss her organization and calmness on the ball.
In other news….Maria Sanchez has swapped to the RW position, and now Nally and Kling will have to contain her and I am NERVOUS lol. Salmon in the middle. Please, not another 3-3 or high scoring nervy game plz.
Laity has also swapped his fullbacks…Chapman on the R and Dydasco on the L. Seems weird and possibly problematic (for them), but he’s going deep tactics on this one lol…Chapman is a bruiser though, likely trying to stop the Morgan Weaver stampede.
Pretty sad about that. Seen this coming from a mile away, though, unfortunately. RW is her 4th best position, and she just hasn’t been effective. It’s not her fault, but I don’t think he knows what to do with her. She’s SUCH a good central player, it’s maddening.
As I mentioned elsewhere in these comments: it's like Western coaches have some sort of weird block about playing Japanese players in their best positions. Yui Hasegawa (possibly the best playmaking attacking mid in the game) as a 6 at City...comically stupid, although she's perfectly adequate there. Hina was primarily a LW at Leonessa...she's left-footed. But would be brilliant in the middle for us...
I wonder if it's because coaches stereotype (usually correctly) how smart high level Japanese players are and assume that they can just fit in wherever in ways others can't.
Unofficial Poll:
Who will be starting tonight at midfield?
Coffey, Rocky, Dunn. Moultrie subs on for Dunn. Sinclair subs on for Rocky, or Sinclair sits it out. entirely
I do think Sinclair's days of playing long minutes in heat and humidity are just about done.
The Soccer Made in Portland guys put it well recently: Portland is playing Sinc at the 8, but she's not an 8. Sinc doesn't play box-to-box at this age, in fact sometimes she doesn't even get 15-20 yards close to a ball or opponent that is her responsibility.
That, combined with the absence of Sauerbruun's intellect and vision and Norris's desire to send our fullbacks forward, is leading to enormous defensive breakdowns.
If we keep the same strategy and lineup tonight, don't be surprised if Salmon puts up 1-2 goals.
I support the Soccer Made in Portland suggestion that Rocky should be getting more minutes at the 8, then dropping Hina back to the 10.
I'd find a way to get Moultrie out there 30-45 minutes now, building toward 90 minutes during the WWC.
I would cut Sinc to 20-45 minutes, some matches playing the first half and others subbing on for 20-30 minutes, just depending on the opponent, weather, schedule, etc.
I would prefer to see Dunn, rather than Hina, as the third forward. I'd ask Dunn to utilize those great skills she displays on the National Team in supplying pressure and getting forward.
And, if Bixby has a tough go of it tonight, then it might be time to give her a reset.
I have to stop listening to SMiP when the Thorns are doing (somewhat) poorly because of of the state media vibe. Rifer is a little more critical, but both he and Clarke --somewhat understandably given their jobs-- rarely provide much in the way of real critique or analysis.
That said, I'm glad they correctly identified the issue of Sinc playing as a ten when her role asks her to play the 8....even if that's been obvious to 95% of this board for a month and half ;)
They got their eventually which is what I expect given that it's a sort of sensitive topic. That it is sensitive is another conversation.
Yeah I am often frustrated by their skirting of “the issue”…last year for sure. Would still like it to be discussed a little more, but I think Chris was pretty vocal this time. They’re fine being pretty critical of Timbers players (even Yimmi), so I’m not sure why Sinc is untouchable. Rocky is the only 8 and it’s bizarre she’s not playing. Dunn at the 10 with Moultrie subbing there (although, I’d prefer Hina.) She can do an 8 also. I wanna see Hina, Rocky, or Moultrie in the midfield before Sinc. I don’t think she should be playing in this game at all, honestly. If I have to watch her slog around in 82 degree Houston heat, while Sam and the CB’s struggle (and everyone on the team really)….ugh
I want to see Coffey, Moulte and Dunn in the midfield (really Sugita and Dunn switch positions). Norris convinces Sinclaire that the heat will sap her and bringing her in at 60 will benefit everyone. I also want to see Nally in place of Menges.
Let's not let a few bad Menges games overshadow how out of her depth Nally generally looks whenever she gets real time. It's harsh, but I don't want Nally starting against any competent striker- She's just not mobile or composed enough to play at that level.
On that note, Ordonez is out, whichh allows Ebony Salmon to play centrally- Salmon on Nally is a mismatch in every sense of the word. I woudn't be surprised if Houston actually looks a little better with a more balanced front line.
Yeah, I have never felt confident with Nally at CB unfortunately. She’s slow as molasses, and is not who you wanna put on Ebony Salmon (and likely Michelle Alozie) tonight. Menges looked rough, but I’d be willing to give her another runout. She does have the tools, she just needs to kick the rust.
Let's see.
86 degrees, 65% humidity, dewpoint 73 degrees, heat index 93 degrees
Whee!
Also, no thanks (says the guy staring at a 96 degree forecast tomorrow, but with humidity at about 5).
ETA also thunderstorms predicted tonight, so score in the first half then be awarded the match when they cancel the second. I am a master soccer strategist
Really wish Dunn would take that RW role also. It would free up the midfield for other players, and I think she would be just as dangerous, if not more so.
Gotta say, while I both would love to get Hina into the midfield and clamored to have Dunn out wide preseason, I realllly like Dunn as a 10. She’s so good on the half turn and combining, and she brings a pace and urgency to the midfield that none of Rocky, Sinc, or Moultrie really do.
My preferred midfield would be Coffey-Hina-Dunn with Izzy or Leon out wide....but as always, we ain’t seeing that until a certain someone isn’t around anymore.
At the beginning of the season, that was my XI preference as well. I just have seen no inclination by this coach to even try Hina in as an 8. I do really like Dunn as a 10 though, but I would like her passing to clean up a little bit.
I'll say this: If Liv doesn't get the nod in Houston weather coming off consecutive excellent cameos, I don't know if she ever will when Sinc's available.
Thanks for your preview Phuoc!
Some last minute bad news for Houston with a late scratch of Diana Ordonez and Ally Prisock, both out due to Covid. That’s a starting CB and, well, Diana Ordonez. I imagine this puts Salmon at the 9, where she’s actually more dangerous than she is out wide.
Shea Groom apparently back fit for the first time this season. Hoping to not see her so we can keep all of our players intact.
Do we make the midfield change everybody sees? Sure hope so.
Also, we’ve got Koraleva tonight. Woof, gonna be a dog fight!
Definitely a more natural fit for Salmon who has been playing out of position this season. Surprised they don't go to a 4-4-2 or something as Maria can play anywhere and still be fantastic.
Yeah Wilder and I had this done for a bit so didn't have a chance to update, but we put an * to let everyone know about the updates.
It seems like many media and pundits are noticing that a change in midfield is needed but doubt it'll happen today. I hope I'm wrong.
https://twitter.com/ThornsFC/status/1657166838357426176?s=20
*Insert the Michae Scott “ohmygod it’s happening” meme*
I am so excited, but also quite confused…is this a 442, or is Crystal playing RW? Also….Nally. At least more capable players in the midfield should help…
Wait... upon closer inspection, are they about to play Moultrie on the wing or is it a diamond?
Looks like it: no Hina. SMfeckin'H...
Tbf, she easily could have had that Rocky spot....so we might see her play in midfield at some point. This looks like a diamond to me because I don't see Moultrie out wide.
I t h ink more likely we get to see Crystal on the RW. I’m sad because I kinda always knew this would turn into Hina being on the bench once she got pushed into that position. It’s her 4th best position on the field. I’d swap Moultrie with Hina, but, I’m excited to see this group. It’s kind of a lot of changes though…I hope it doesn’t mess with the cohesion.
It's like there's some weird block Western coaches have about playing Japanese players at their best positions (Exhibit A: Yui Hasegawa as a deep-lying mid at City).
Hasn't the NT been playing her as a LW/LWB lately?
(not that I disagree with you)
Yeah the last few games I watched of Japan was her at LWB, which also didn’t seem quite right to me…
Not sure who you mean by "her." Hina or Yui?
Hina
I don’t think Dunn is on the right- they’ve been adamant that she won’t play there.
I think a diamond is (unfortunately) more likely with Dunn or Moultrie at the 10.
Yeah I would guess a diamond also. Dunn at the 10, and Rocky and Moultrie as the 2 8’s…with Moultrie prob getting higher up. A total formation change? Or does he just put Moultrie or Dunn in the “Hina” hybrid spot where she drops into the midfield anyways? I don’t know what the plan is lol. Did Norris watch the Spirit game and say “I want that” lol.
I guess we'll learn whether Norris sees that RW position as an inverted winger / hybrid 10 tactically or whether he was just sticking Hina there to fit her in the 11.
Disappointed Becky is still out--she's obviously needed back there. And now would be the ideal time to learn whether McGrady has a meaningful future on the squad--did she take a chainsaw or something to that thigh? Ideally, given Emily is still playing herself back into shape, there is a substitution plan rather than letting her go 90, Is Reyes ready?
Road game vs. Houston--I'll guess we squeak out of there with a 2-2 draw. "Undefeated!" "Uh, yeah, super."
Prove me wrong, Thorns. Last week I guessed a 1-3 win and got the wrong end of the number 3.
Did I know Houston has a Bayou? I just knew they have a metric buttload of refineries and chemical plants that sit next to unfortunate water.
Tegan McGrady is making really good progress at training and is closer to making a return.
She's been working extremely hard to get back, it's been awesome seeing the progress each week.
Mike has let his players have multiple games to see if it works, I am curious if it means Menges again or Nally today.
Yeah, if Louisiana is home to Cancer Alley, then certainly Houston's gotta be the locale of Carcinoma Aisle.
I want to see a solid complete game from Bixby. She's had some shaky moments over the past two games; that can get inside a keeper's head. She needs to be rock solid against a team that isn't scoring well to get her confidence (and that of her backline) back.
And speaking of backline...I REALLY want to see a disciplined and well-organized defense this evening. No more of this Pogarchesque random running; stick your marks, tackle, ball-side-goal-side...knock off the ballwatching and marking space. Defending 101; it's not hard! Crap teams do it all the time when you think that "well-organized" is a common epithet for "boring and useless". I'd like to see some 2017 Menges for a change, too, thanks.
I was kidding about ballistic vests, but Koroleva? Loose the hounds!
I like when Bixby is super aggressive off her line, that will help this backline the most imo. Without Becky, she'll need to have a complete game more often for sure.
I think this Houston team obviously has underperformed on the attacking end, but they'll be asked to be good tonight. Going to be a good indicator if Natu can keep Maria in check and if Menges/Nally and Hubly can prevent Salmon from getting too many chances.
I like when Bixby controls her penalty area, whether that means coming out hard to claim or staying on her line and trusting her defenders; as a keeper either is a valid technique (coming out looks fierce, but you get jammed up in traffic and see what happens...).
One thing that I find frustrating is the unquestioning love Sauerbrunn seems to get around here.
She's a solid veteran, but she's also not Obi-Wan Brunnobi, our only hope. Here's her backline PMRs over the first three games this season:
ORL: Kling +7/-6, Hubly +5/-4, Brunn +3/-6, Kuikka +13/-4, Bixby +1/-2
KCC: Kling +9/-8, Hubly +11/-10, Brunn +10/-3, Kuikka +11/-14, Bixby +1/-4
HOU: Kling +9/-14, Hubly +6/-9, Brunn +9/-3, Kuikka +7/-3, Bixby +4/-4
She's good...but her being out there doesn't seem to be the Magic Elixir for Backline Awesomeness she seems to get tons of credit for. Her unit has been underwhelming a lot this season (and remember that Orlando and Kansas City were hot garbage, so it wasn't the opponents...).
So whether or not Sauerbrunn is there, Bixby needs to be on top of her game, both in the air and against shots. Another shaky game might lock her in to a very troubled place...
There has been a revolving door at RB this year with Reyna, Nally, and Natu all making starts and appearances.
My point was there is a huge drop off between Becky and the next starter/replacement at CB.
Becky isn't going to fix everything, but the xG with and without her has started to creep up slightly and the backline has been a bit more unorganized. Her presence benefits the team way more than without.
Bixby is the key to all of this, as I think Portland has 2 starters with Shelby Hogan as well. If she doesn't come off her line a lot today, that means Hubly and Menges/Nally will have to win headers against Salmon consistently...
That CB depth chart drop off makes me so sad: at one point, a few years back and at the height of her career, Menges was the best CB in the league and her lack of caps remains the worst snub in USWNT history for me. She has had a horrible time trying to recover from injury and there's still some rust on her game.
Facts.
I think she can still get back to a high level, will take more reps and games for sure though.
I continue to believe she'll get substantially better. Likely never to where she was in 2017, but she's only 30 and has played barely any soccer for two years. It's not like she's a 35 year old trying to salvage the last year of her career.
Her issues certainly look primarily like rust to me- Bad tackling technique (like against Wingate on Saturday), the occasional errant pass, etc etc.
I think a lot depton her staying healthy. So far that’s been a problem. I want to believe she can; she’s always been a personal favorite.
In the past I’d have disagreed; Menges was as good or better, and I’d have taken Menges/Hubly as soon or sooner than Brunn/Hubly.
This season, unfortunately, you’re right. Menges has been a tire fire, and so the dropoff from Brunn - whether or not you rate her as highly as she is often rated here - really is precipitous.
Becky leads and organizes and the all-important goals against have gone from 2 to 8 with her missing. And that's not nothing.
That relies largely on two matches, the xG-against of which combined is barely 2. So the primary defensive issue isn’t the backline giving up better looks, something we can blame on a lack of Sauerbrunn, but a combination of freakish bad luck and Bixby’s troubles. It’s correlation, not causation.
One of the things I find frustrating about your PMR system is that not all -'s are created equal. As you wrote in the Riveting ORL recap, the negatives for most of the backline, and particularly Becky, were misplaced long passes against a pinned-back Orlando. But those -1 actions are weighted exactly the same as an accidental pass to Houston in our half or an own goal against NCC, even though the end result of the action has a completely different impact on the game state. There's also a lot of off-the-ball work and positioning done by defenders that doesn't get rewarded by the PMR system. I find the PMRs to be interesting in the context of a single game and write-up where detail is added, but hard to compare between opponents and sometimes even between players.
I agree that the backline hasn't been very cohesive, but Becky has been consistently good. Removing that and replacing with Nally (fine) and Menges (visibly rusty) has made the entire unit significantly worse. No player makes everything magically better, but can you blame fans for wanting Becky back? And as much as organizing the defense is part of the role of a veteran CB, you can't place all of the fault for her teammates' poor performances on Becky.
2017 Menges is five years and several injuries ago. Maybe it's time that we all adjust our expectations of 2023 Menges?
Agreed on all counts- Giveaways are almost always hugely contextual, especially for backlines and *especially* for backlines having to play in front of an incredibly open midfield like the Thorns currently have.
Becky's value (especially at this point in her career) is that she very rarely makes the types of mistakes we saw from Menges last week, or see from Nally whenever she plays, which stabilizes the whole squad and mitigates her own relative physical limitations. She almost always makes the "right" play, which sometimes happens to be hoofing the ball up field or out of bounds.
The “never puts a foot wrong” is where I disagree and what frustrates me about Brunn.
For a player of her c.v. I’m always unpleasantly surprises how often she’s caught out of position, coughs up a pass right to an opponent, or gets skinned.
Is she a “Reyes’ first match” trainwreck? No. But that’s kind of the point; given her experience I’d expected her to be the rock of consistency she’s typically described here, and to have imparted that degree of stability to her defense.
So when that didn’t happen I was sure it was some sort of artifact. Surely she WAS doing all those things, it just looked different.
Now? I’m not sure.
I WANT it to be true. We need that calm organization in back.
But so far this season? I honestly haven’t seen it.
"Never puts a foot wrong" is commentator talk, not us critical people here at STF. It's easy to magnify a player's or a team's reputation with the passage of time and forget the flaws, be it Becky, Sincy, or previous iterations of the Thorns. Sauerbrunn's performance at Portland has generally been in line with her previous seasons, adjusting for aging.
In 2019, Thorns defense went into a bad skid. In 2021, with Menges/Brunn as our primary pairing, we had the fewest GA and most SO of any season. I'd even argue that Hubly and Kling have been more consistent in the last 2 seasons than previous and Bixby took over as the #1 in mid-2021. We've won silverware of some sort in both of the last two seasons. We've been in the top defenses of the league in the last two seasons. That's pretty consistent. But then we have very high standards at STF.
I don’t think I agree with that- She’s not perfect, but she’s rarely, to my eyes, out of position because of an individual mistake. She (and Hubly, and Menges) are frequently isolated 1v1 because of the lack of midfield and FB support, but that’s part of the structural defensive problem- CBs shouldn’t be left 1v1...which the Thorns CBs have been all too often as of late.
She’s also in her late 30s and isn’t Naomi Girma, Sarah Gorden or whichever hyper-athletic CB you want to name, so she doesn’t have the pace to cover up her mistakes or those of others, so I think it looks worse when she has a speedy attacker running at her. “Never puts a foot wrong” is an exaggeration (she makes the occasional errant pass and isn’t always perfect in the tackle), but I do think they severely miss her organization and calmness on the ball.
In the 33rd, am I wrong to think this feels like a 0-0 tie?
And just like that, it's Moultrie's willingness to face the goal that creates a second ball opportunity.
In other news….Maria Sanchez has swapped to the RW position, and now Nally and Kling will have to contain her and I am NERVOUS lol. Salmon in the middle. Please, not another 3-3 or high scoring nervy game plz.
Laity has also swapped his fullbacks…Chapman on the R and Dydasco on the L. Seems weird and possibly problematic (for them), but he’s going deep tactics on this one lol…Chapman is a bruiser though, likely trying to stop the Morgan Weaver stampede.
No Hina in the 11. Okaaaaayyy...
Pretty sad about that. Seen this coming from a mile away, though, unfortunately. RW is her 4th best position, and she just hasn’t been effective. It’s not her fault, but I don’t think he knows what to do with her. She’s SUCH a good central player, it’s maddening.
I assume we'll see her at some point in the 2nd half. Not sure I would say the same for Sinc.
As I mentioned elsewhere in these comments: it's like Western coaches have some sort of weird block about playing Japanese players in their best positions. Yui Hasegawa (possibly the best playmaking attacking mid in the game) as a 6 at City...comically stupid, although she's perfectly adequate there. Hina was primarily a LW at Leonessa...she's left-footed. But would be brilliant in the middle for us...
I wonder if it's because coaches stereotype (usually correctly) how smart high level Japanese players are and assume that they can just fit in wherever in ways others can't.
That may be a big factor, as well as that most train heavily with their off foot and thus exhibit less of a preference than many.