I will never root for the Timbers to lose, I'm not a hate-watcher. BUT: if the Timbers do lose this game, particularly if they play like they did in KC, does Gio keep his job? IF so, how?
I like that no matter how mediocre-to-terrible the Timbers are lately, whenever Seattle pops up on the schedule I'm like "oh the Timbers have a chance here". No guarantees, obviously, but there are worse teams the Timbers could face during a stretch of fairly dire play.
I wouldn’t count on Gio going anywhere until after the year at the soonest. Maybe if we continue to pile up really bad results he’d be gone toward the end of the summer. I’d be alright moving on, it just seems really unlikely to me. Gio has had some success and Grabavoy by his own admission hasn’t done his part. Gio always seems to spin out of these spirals, and he actually has some decent talent in attack now.
I think wanting to move on is rational, I just don’t see it happening mid-season.
Who makes the decision to replace Gio, and what's a good way to gauge whether that will actually happen?
If this is a decision made by Paulson, what factors into the decision, if, as has been pointed out earlier, performance is not a factor in the profitability of the organization?
That depends on who you believe is in charge. After the multiple investigations, Paulson said he would sell the Thorns and "step back" from the day-to-day of the Timbers, and leave his handpicked CEO in charge of Timbers-related things.
So, if you believe that, that means that the CEO, Heather Davis, is ultimately in charge. I would imagine firing Gio would either be her call or Ned's call, subsequently approved by her.
If, however, you don't believe MP has "stepped back", firing managers is still ultimately his call (even if Ned says "hey we gotta fire this guy!"). Which is problematic, if he is still salty enough from the investigations to, as I and others suspect, be a pouty little infant about it and show his petulance by not doing a single thing to improve the Timbers in any way, just letting them stagnate as a I'LL SHOW YOU WHAT ME NOT BEING INVOLVED LOOKS LIKE sort of way.
"If this is a decision made by Paulson, what factors into the decision"
Paulson is the sole owner of, and thus at least in theory the ultimate decision maker for, the Timbers (depending, as mentioned, on how much you believe he's "stepped back"). So the "factors" at play are basically his whims.
It seems to me that Grabavoy would have to push for this change and be very convincing: I assume, as with other industries, it can be very expensive to undergo changes in management.
Especially if the profitability of PTFC is not correlated with success on the pitch.
"Especially if the profitability of PTFC is not correlated with success on the pitch"
I mean, it sort of is, but not directly. The more people in the stadium, the more merch/concessions get sold, and the more the bottom line swells. The easiest way to guarantee more butts in more seats is to win and win consistently.
"it can be very expensive to undergo changes in management"
Gio probably makes high-six to low-seven figures? tops? and his assistants are probably all in the high-five to low-six figure number. For a club worth $650M and with an owner whose dad is worth about $700M, they can afford the severance packages pretty easily, and in any case, that should not be an impediment to getting better.
Or, put another way: if the Timbers literally can't afford to pay a severance/buyout, they have much bigger problems than a crap coach.
Which gets to the "Does Merritt Paulson even give a damn about the Timbers any more" question. It may be that he's just sitting on his investment, waiting to cash it out (reminder: initial buyin $35M, current worth of club >$650M according to Forbes), and just letting whatever happens happen in the meantime. Which would SUCK for those of us who aren't the owner, who actually care about the team and want it to get better.
I figure the plan should be "fire Gio now, put in placeholder coach, spend the remainder of the season looking for a long-term replacement", which as plans go isn't all that terrible. But we shall see.
I'm not a Gio hater, but I'm now ready to root for someone else managing the team. I have no idea how Paulson fills his days, but it appears that it's not by watching replays of Timber games and drawing some conclusions. I don't love every player on the team and think a couple of plays shouldn't be on the team let along in DP slots. I also would prefer not to see Mabiala on the field again. But, I think overall the team has enough talent to win more than it has been. In my mind, that comes down to a problem with how Gio's doing the job. Paulson may not care about the Timbers like he once did. Maybe he's raw from the well deserved criticism he's gotten. I don't know who's available to replace Gio that would do a better job, but it seems we have nothing to lose by making a switch.
I would not want Ridgewell, he of (checks notes) exactly zero games as a head coach, to be anything more than an interim until a higher-profile coach is found and hired.
I will always love Ridgewell for his role on the 2015 team. Could he do the job-I don't know-but I'd be in favor of giving him a shot. As a defender himself, I have to wonder what role he has in the current way our defense is playing? Maybe Gio and he aren't on the same page about that but who knows?
As an interim, I have no problem with Ridgy. As others have stated we have less a talent problem and more a motivation problem. We might not win them all, but we should be competitive in them all. Let him see what he can to improve tactics and in general light a fire under this team.
You mean the Caleb Porter who won MLS Cup with the Timbers, then missed the playoffs the following year? The Caleb Porter who won MLS Cup with the Crew, then missed the playoffs the following TWO years and is currently unemployed? Hard, hard pass.
I will always love Caleb Porter for what he did for the Timbers, but in 2023, the Timbers can do better than recycled nostalgia. The overall coaching pool is way deeper than "people who used to coach or be at the Timbers", and if the club limit themselves to familiar names, that's a huge failure of imagination.
I will never root for the Timbers to lose, I'm not a hate-watcher. BUT: if the Timbers do lose this game, particularly if they play like they did in KC, does Gio keep his job? IF so, how?
I like that no matter how mediocre-to-terrible the Timbers are lately, whenever Seattle pops up on the schedule I'm like "oh the Timbers have a chance here". No guarantees, obviously, but there are worse teams the Timbers could face during a stretch of fairly dire play.
I wouldn’t count on Gio going anywhere until after the year at the soonest. Maybe if we continue to pile up really bad results he’d be gone toward the end of the summer. I’d be alright moving on, it just seems really unlikely to me. Gio has had some success and Grabavoy by his own admission hasn’t done his part. Gio always seems to spin out of these spirals, and he actually has some decent talent in attack now.
I think wanting to move on is rational, I just don’t see it happening mid-season.
Who makes the decision to replace Gio, and what's a good way to gauge whether that will actually happen?
If this is a decision made by Paulson, what factors into the decision, if, as has been pointed out earlier, performance is not a factor in the profitability of the organization?
That depends on who you believe is in charge. After the multiple investigations, Paulson said he would sell the Thorns and "step back" from the day-to-day of the Timbers, and leave his handpicked CEO in charge of Timbers-related things.
So, if you believe that, that means that the CEO, Heather Davis, is ultimately in charge. I would imagine firing Gio would either be her call or Ned's call, subsequently approved by her.
If, however, you don't believe MP has "stepped back", firing managers is still ultimately his call (even if Ned says "hey we gotta fire this guy!"). Which is problematic, if he is still salty enough from the investigations to, as I and others suspect, be a pouty little infant about it and show his petulance by not doing a single thing to improve the Timbers in any way, just letting them stagnate as a I'LL SHOW YOU WHAT ME NOT BEING INVOLVED LOOKS LIKE sort of way.
"If this is a decision made by Paulson, what factors into the decision"
Paulson is the sole owner of, and thus at least in theory the ultimate decision maker for, the Timbers (depending, as mentioned, on how much you believe he's "stepped back"). So the "factors" at play are basically his whims.
It seems to me that Grabavoy would have to push for this change and be very convincing: I assume, as with other industries, it can be very expensive to undergo changes in management.
Especially if the profitability of PTFC is not correlated with success on the pitch.
"Especially if the profitability of PTFC is not correlated with success on the pitch"
I mean, it sort of is, but not directly. The more people in the stadium, the more merch/concessions get sold, and the more the bottom line swells. The easiest way to guarantee more butts in more seats is to win and win consistently.
"it can be very expensive to undergo changes in management"
Gio probably makes high-six to low-seven figures? tops? and his assistants are probably all in the high-five to low-six figure number. For a club worth $650M and with an owner whose dad is worth about $700M, they can afford the severance packages pretty easily, and in any case, that should not be an impediment to getting better.
Or, put another way: if the Timbers literally can't afford to pay a severance/buyout, they have much bigger problems than a crap coach.
Seems like he'd have nothing but to gain by getting rid of Gio and putting $$$ into drastically improving the team's performance. Weird situation.
Which gets to the "Does Merritt Paulson even give a damn about the Timbers any more" question. It may be that he's just sitting on his investment, waiting to cash it out (reminder: initial buyin $35M, current worth of club >$650M according to Forbes), and just letting whatever happens happen in the meantime. Which would SUCK for those of us who aren't the owner, who actually care about the team and want it to get better.
And Ned would have to have a plan for a replacement.
I note that Miami just fired their coach after four straight loses. And they have basically the same PPG than PTFC, 1.00 to 1.07
I figure the plan should be "fire Gio now, put in placeholder coach, spend the remainder of the season looking for a long-term replacement", which as plans go isn't all that terrible. But we shall see.
I'm not a Gio hater, but I'm now ready to root for someone else managing the team. I have no idea how Paulson fills his days, but it appears that it's not by watching replays of Timber games and drawing some conclusions. I don't love every player on the team and think a couple of plays shouldn't be on the team let along in DP slots. I also would prefer not to see Mabiala on the field again. But, I think overall the team has enough talent to win more than it has been. In my mind, that comes down to a problem with how Gio's doing the job. Paulson may not care about the Timbers like he once did. Maybe he's raw from the well deserved criticism he's gotten. I don't know who's available to replace Gio that would do a better job, but it seems we have nothing to lose by making a switch.
There's talk of Ridgewell...
A lot of random people on the internet are saying he’s the guy. Huge if true 😂😂😂
I would not want Ridgewell, he of (checks notes) exactly zero games as a head coach, to be anything more than an interim until a higher-profile coach is found and hired.
I will always love Ridgewell for his role on the 2015 team. Could he do the job-I don't know-but I'd be in favor of giving him a shot. As a defender himself, I have to wonder what role he has in the current way our defense is playing? Maybe Gio and he aren't on the same page about that but who knows?
As an interim, I have no problem with Ridgy. As others have stated we have less a talent problem and more a motivation problem. We might not win them all, but we should be competitive in them all. Let him see what he can to improve tactics and in general light a fire under this team.
How would people feel if Caleb Porter came back?
You mean the Caleb Porter who won MLS Cup with the Timbers, then missed the playoffs the following year? The Caleb Porter who won MLS Cup with the Crew, then missed the playoffs the following TWO years and is currently unemployed? Hard, hard pass.
I will always love Caleb Porter for what he did for the Timbers, but in 2023, the Timbers can do better than recycled nostalgia. The overall coaching pool is way deeper than "people who used to coach or be at the Timbers", and if the club limit themselves to familiar names, that's a huge failure of imagination.
The guy got let go in Columbus for dropping too many dropped points. Kinda like this squad lately?
As the band The Who sang:
"Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."