89 Comments
Nov 16·edited Nov 16

A hilarious stat guaranteed to make everyone feel much worse about Gale: I found this stat thread while writing the Thorns section of my exit surveys this week (shameless plug https://www.theeaststandnwsl.com/post/2024-nwsl-exit-survey-diaries-the-murky-middle) and it's absolutely insane:

Over the course of the season, Becky Sauerbrunn started 25 of 27 league/playoff matches. Her partner in every game was either Hubly or Obaze, with the exception of the three games in September where all three started together in the three-back. That means, with the exception of those three games, we can measure on-off splits pretty accurately because Sauerbrunn was a constant variable.

- Portland won 10 league games. The starting CB pairing was Obaze/Becky in EIGHT of the ten.

- Obaze started 11 matches. Her record was 6-1-5. Four of those losses were in games Hubly started with her.

- Obaze had a +0.14 xG on/off split, meaning that the Thorns were +0.14 xG better when she was on the field than off. Hubly had a -1.0 split. It's not a perfect metric because they did share the field four times, but that *roughly* means the Thorns were more than an entire xG better PER MATCH when Obaze partnered Becky.

We can talk all we want about Sinclair (and be right about it), but this was the real coaching malpractice, at least in terms of personnel choice, this season.

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And the weird thing is that it was perfectly obvious by the eye test too. Obaze looks noticeably better than Hubly. I wonder what Gale looks at.

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Nov 16·edited Nov 16

I obviously agree re: the eye test thing, but this is also an indicator of a total lack of organizational data integration and trend review. Coaches have their favorites, and those favorites (as we've seen) are often the vets- This isn't even unique to Gale. Sometimes coaches need a prod in the right direction.

I'm just a fan and I found this data using publicly available sources. I'm not saying all roster decisions should be data-based, but when it's THIS blatant? What are we doing? There are other clubs (notably Bay FC) that have been open about using advanced stats to help with performance analysis, but pffft from Portland.

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Coachin' on vibes, coachin' on feels... that's KenBall!

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Probably the compromising photos that Hubly must have of him. =)

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I wonder if the issue is just that Gale values age/experience too much over youth/speed. That could explain both the Sinclair and Hubly preferences. Like, did be start Obaze only against lower-tier teams, maybe thinking that she couldn't handle the pressure of a "big match"? That's incorrect IMO, since Obaze appears to handle pressure much better than Hubly does.

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This is really helpful, and undeniable.

One question and one minor observation:

Question: You say Obaze started 11 matches and the Thorns record was 6-1-5 in them, which is 12 matches. Do they only come in a dozen?

Minor observation: We know that sometimes Obaze was out with injury, sometimes she was available if needed, and sometimes she was available and healthy but not played. So, some of that affects the context of Gale's decisionmaking. Norris's too. Still, if you only win 10 matches in a season, and 8 of them came when a particular CB combo plays, that's more than correlation, and it's definitely not just coincidence.

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Nov 18·edited Nov 18

Whoops, no I accidentally counted one of the matches she came off the bench in that total. So, only 5-1-5 and 7/10, which is admittedly slightly less stark.

(Though the xG differential splits are still pretty damn stark)

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I admit to only finding some stats useful. Is xG a useful stat for defenders?

My eye test was that Obaze improved a lot over the season, but I could be wrong. The back line in general was a mess all season. The GM missed out on the international market, and even a top U.S. defenders, who would have made a massive difference playing next to Sauerbrunn.

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Nov 16·edited Nov 16

It's xG differential, so it's overall performance including xG against in addition to xG for. It's much more useful (in my opinion) than using "goals against" because it actually shows how the team fared in other parts of the game as well. A stickier stat, so to speak.

That said, there are major limitations to any on/off split because of how many variables there are, as I mentioned in my original comment. I thought this one was particularly revealing because of how insanely stark the splits are. I actually somewhat disagree about the importance of missing the market, though obviously another CB would have been helpful. I think Obaze is an above average NWSL CB who they just refused to use...and combined with Hubly struggling and the tactical issues everything snowballed.

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For me, above average doesn't cut it when teamed with an aged CB legend. Don't get me wrong. I love 'Brunn and believe she can still contribute a wealth of knowledge and IQ. I recall an article on Equalizer a couple years back (perhaps) that said Sauerbrunn improved Portland's attack, and when she was out on injury the Thorn's attack suffered. Having said that, the Thorns need a more talented CB to pair with Becky.

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Nov 16·edited Nov 16

Don't conflate age with ability just because Sinc fell off a cliff- Sauerbrunn had a pretty damn good season and, crucially, played almost every game. There aren't a lot CBs in the league that had a better year than she did individually. I agree that we shouldn't rely on her going into next season, but she played at a high level *this* season, especially given how leaky both the midfield and her CB partner were. Obaze and Sauerbrunn, statistically, actually very much did cut it when they played together.

(I'd also note that the Thorns actually had a top-half defense --6th-- by xG against. Given how awful the tactics were and how rough our keepers were, that's not terrible.)

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I agree with everything you've said...and confirm that for me 1st, 2nd, 3rd rank in NWSL is what I think is necessary. And for this, I don't think the best coach in the league would be able to bring the current pairing to that level.

Good talking with you.

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Nov 16·edited Nov 16

Wow, the shortest possible shootout, 3-0. Kingsbury comes up big.

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Given how poor those PKs were all Kingsbury had to come up was about knee-high. Three of the worst attempts I've ever seen. Did the Bats ever practice taking PKs? It sure didn't look it...

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Agreed that they were easy PKs to stop once Kingsbury was in the right place, but she also had to choose the right direction to go. She made a comment after the game about "getting a good read" on the PK takers, which made me think she had studied them at length in preparation for the game to learn their tells.

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Nov 16·edited Nov 16

Which makes me wonder whether a team has ever been down 3-0 in a shootout and won it. The only way it's possible is if you're down 3-0 after 2½ rounds, you score your next 3 shots and stop the opponent's next 2, and then you go on to win in extra rounds. I mean it must have happened - there are 1024 (i.e., 2^10) ways for a 10-shot PK shootout to go, so that sequence of results must happen roughly once in 1000 shootouts. Actually more like 1 in 1500 because goals and misses aren't equally likely - PKs are scored like 75% of the time and missed 25%. And the comeback team wins around half of the time in the extra rounds, so around once every 3000 PK shootouts. Given the number of PK shootouts in soccer competitions everywhere, it must happen at least several times a year. But I've never heard of one!

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Nov 18·edited Nov 18

Well good. Glad to see the Pride won, it was exciting because of the comeback, Marta scored, #1 will play #2 in the final, and KC will get to watch that game from their brand new stands.

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Ugh, just found out the final is on CBS and Paramount+. I wasn't able to watch the Spirit-Gotham game on either one, and I suspect I won't be able to see the final either. Rats.

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This has worked for me, including the Spirit-Gotham game:

Go to Paramount+ and make sure you're signed in.

Click on the CBS Sports logo in the lower right corner.

Then click on Live TV from the menu in the upper left.

You may have to find the game in the scrolling menu on the left.

It should show the game, even though there will be no indication of it until it's actually on. (And there may be commercials.)

I hope this will work for you. And for me.

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Thanks, I tried that after you (or someone) suggested it in the game-day comments, and it didn't work. I spent around an hour trying to get P+ to work, including a long phone call with customer service, with no luck. I'm hoping I can do a trial of some streaming service that has the game, assuming I haven't used up all available free trials already.

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Yeah, that was me. I posted it so late I thought you might have missed it. I don't know what your problem could be, and I'm sorry to hold out false hope. Good luck.

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Nov 17·edited Nov 17

Just minutes away from KC having to watch Orlando and Washington playing for the championship on KC's pitch.

I love it.

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Nov 17·edited Nov 17

Justice, imo. League was actively trying to get a KC home final in the snazzy new (tiny) stadium when they made that decision. Now they get Orlando and their zero fans.

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I love it so much lol

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Holy shit Marta lmfaoooo

(Also, Hubly-esque dally on the ball there from Sharples)

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Nov 17·edited Nov 17

Marta speaks, with her feet! 3-1, Mouseketeers!

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As great as Chawinga is, I want to see Temwa beat people the way Marta just did, not by plowing through them or shoving them out of the way. There have been some moments of incredible footwork by Chawinga today, so I am confident that this can happen.

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Ohhh my gawwwd after each move I was more and more in awe just mouth agape hahahaha

Scared the shit out of my sleeping dog because my partner and I screamed lol. My favorite part were the synchronized slides from Cook and Sharples lol. Just epic Marta, man.

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Nov 18·edited Nov 18

Marta breaking two ankles at once. Those KC defenders couldn't have timed going down together any better, and the movements were identical. They should sign up for synchronized swimming.

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and the equalizer....

Amazing what happens when you keep the ball on the ground, put it back across the face of the goal and have players moving toward the goal for one-timers. Might even say that it works on a regular basis.

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In conclusion, Gotham and Spirit each have more collective talent than the Thorns. It's obvious to the eye; stats aren't necessary. Here's hoping the new Thorns GM is as good as Gotham and Spirit have.

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Rooting for the Spirit in this one, while simultaneously hoping that news of Gotham's salary cap rule-breaking and subsequent punishment (15-point deduction for each of the next 3 years) comes through at halftime.

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Nov 16·edited Nov 16

Whoops, looks like I can't watch the game after all. It's nowhere to be seen on Paramount+ and my CBS app just says "We're sorry, an error occurred" when I try to watch it there. You are indeed sorry, CBS/Paramount.

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This worked for me:

Paramount+ -> CBS Sports -> Live TV

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Yeah I think it’s only on big CBS. It’s a fun one so far!

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It'll be on NWSL+ here...but I'm watching Chelsea v ManCity. ;)

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Alas I don't have CBS TV - it wants me to have a cable provider or something. NWSL says it's on P+ -- is this a mistake by NWSL or P+ that it's not? Who knows.

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P+ this year compared to the prior 2-3 seasons is a husk, barely worth the subscription now (unless you really, really like Star Trek).

They're on the clock to fix this mess by next March.

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Nov 16·edited Nov 16

Couple of thoughts:

1) Ken bunkered because the previous meetings w Gotham suggested that if he hadn’t his squad would have been two-nil down at halftime. It was ugly and nervy and - yes - boring. And success depended on his squad doing things like grinding out a scoreless draw that they hadn’t been capable of doing all season. But in light of the two teams’ respective quality? It wasn’t wrong.

2) I think the GM hire needs to be someone with success in a free agent/transfer league. That’s my problem with Parsons; he’s a “draft guy”, his roster building (to the extent it was him and not him+GW) was in a completely different league. We’re moving into the WSL/FBL/La Liga model. Academies are going to have to kick in, too, and soon, because it’s going to get more difficult to find and sign college players in the wild. So a GM who can and has experience there will be huge.

The codicil to that is this is going to take a symbiotic relationship (which you mentioned) between owner(s)-GM-HC. So it’s not just the GM needs to be soon AND right. It’s gotta be all three getting things done.

I give the Bhathals about a 50-50. They booted the Gale hire and took way too long to pull the LeBlanc trigger. So far I’m not seeing anything real impressive.

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The coaches obsession with starting Sinclair is not informed by the chosen strategy. There is nothing wrong, per se, with a 4-4-2 and a bunker or semi-bunker defense. But, ever team who does that, whether a national team ranked 30th in the world versus USWNT or whatever over-matched team (Thorns over-matched by Gotham), all of them except the Thorns have a all-out sprinter speed striker at the top.

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I mean, 100% get the career and fan service importance of her playing most of the final home match. There is no other scenario and by the soccer gods, it worked out. (Against whom not important. Move along.)

In the playoffs? What the hell, Ken? Do you not wish to win this game? Mission accomplished, you magnificent screwup.

"Ooh, we held them to zero points in the first half."

Yay?

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2-1, Mickey Mouse Club. I love goals when the keeper remains a statue as the ball rockets past.

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That shot from Banda was BLAZING. I would not have wanted to be in its way.

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Might as well take it all now Orlando since the higher seeded teams won every round.

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Spirit will beat Orlando they are better coached than Kansas

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The now-traditional postseason corner kick study at Riveting!: https://rivetingpdx.com/2024/11/18/cornered-thrice-is-nice/

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Nov 18·edited Nov 18

KenBall: feel the vibes, vibe the feels, watch the playoffs on TV.

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Well, again I cannot resist talking about defending, let me point out yet another debilitation of duty of the Thorns General Manager. Sure, K.C. lost by 1 goal to Orlando. None the list, K.C.'s defense feature two, yes, two youthful defenders with recent USWNT caps. One that was on the last World Cup team; one who has played in recent friendlies.

As wonderful as Becky Sauerbrunn still is, the General Manager has failed to find a younger world class center back to play beside her.

If this is not amended between today and February, the Thorns will not be a top team in 2025.

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I sure seems like both the Thorns and Timbers just can't get it together on central defense in recent years. They consistently seem to undervalue a good centerbacks and just won't get top-tier players (aside from Sauerbrunn, who wanted to come here). I'm still hopeful that Obaze has the ability to become that, but she would have to see the field consistently (hah!) and improve. It sure would be nice to have a top-tier centerback to partner with Sauerbrunn in her remaining time.

As for the Timbers, I think we've had a DP defender only once, Ridgewell, and we won a championship with him. We've spent TAM on defenders, which has gotten us good-but-not-great centerbacks, and defensive weakness just seems to sink the team again and again. Some of that is coaching; I don't think Gio was a good defensive coach, and Neville isn't either.

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Nov 18·edited Nov 18

It’s partially because defensive efficacy is hugely structural compared to offensive production.

In the Thorns case, I maintain that adding random popular CB x (say, Abby Dahlkemper) to partner Becky would not have made a huge difference. I watch and rewatch the games every week and other than the occasional Hubly mistake, the issues are mostly structural: Lack of shape in midfield leading to CBs isolated against wingers, poor ball progression leading to odd-number counters, etc etc. I posted the Obaze/Hubly splits below, but even that jump was terrible to meh, not terrible to good.

The Timbers are actually a good example: No, they haven’t gone out and gotten a DP CB, but they’ve spent a lot of resources on international defenders with good reps (Araujo and Miller most recently) and still can’t figure it out because their tactics are frequently too aggressive and naive, particularly with how the FBs play. The Orlando Pride are a good example on the other end: Yeah, Sams is awesome but the other three were essentially no-names before Hines turned that team into a machine.

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Yep 1000x; it’s the sports cliche in action - “a good team beats a team of good players”. It’s not the roster holes that killed us this season, but that KenBall with its incoherence and lack of organization and discipline meant that individual errors were fatal.

I hope the owners understand that.

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What? No love for The Beard..??

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True, Borchers was a big component of that defense. Just not a DP.

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Which kinda reminds up what a smart GM can do without needing DP money. Too bad we don't have a GM like that...

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Nov 17·edited Nov 17

No telling how much more time beyond 12 minutes this one will go. Maybe another 5 minutes?

Answer: 6.

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Nov 18·edited Nov 18

Didn't watch the game. Were there really 6 minutes of stopped play after 90:00? Yes a PK takes a while, but not THAT long.

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There were 18 minutes of stoppage time. 12 as announced, plus 6 more tacked onto that. 18 minutes. 18.

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