Takeaways from the Timbers Leagues Cup campaign
What three hard-fought games in the inaugural Leagues Cup tournament tells us about the Timbers' run-in for the 2023 season.
The wacky, wild, and more than a little weird Leagues Cup will come to a close this week. For the Portland Timbers, it concluded a week-and-a-half ago, as they got bounced during the round of 32.
Despite their somewhat early exit, the Timbers put in improved performances which could bode well for the mad dash to the finish in the MLS season. Here’s some takeaways from Portland’s brief but notable Leagues Cup run:
The Timbers remembered how to fight
Perhaps the biggest takeaway of the Summer tournament is that the Timbers played two of the powerhouses of Liga MX soccer straight up, and were remarkably close to getting a result against both of them.
In their bout against Tigres you could argue that Portland were the better side right up until Evander’s dubious red card. They fell to a late defeat at the hands of one of their greatest hits — defensive miscue at the far post — but that doesn’t erase the fact that Portland nearly survived an onslaught from the defending Clausura champions.
And in their next game, their round of 32 match with Monterrey, the Timbers were playing well until they were undone by (you guessed it) another defensive miscue. But even before then, the Timbers were even on shots with Rayados right up until the Mexican side’s eventual winner in first half stoppage-time.
The theme in both of those matches was grit and fight. Despite being at a talent disadvantage and going into both games as the underdog, the Timbers turned in what could be argued were two of their best performances of the 2023 season (says a lot about the 2023 season so far!). They battled with two of the best teams on the continent and turned in incredibly commendable shifts, which is something that many other MLS teams in the tournament (including a particular one just a few hours up the freeway) can’t say.
Those two attributes, fight and grit, are things that have been missing through wide stretches of the MLS season. Their absence is a large reason Portland are in the position in the table that they are as we approach the restart. We don’t know yet if the Timbers will translate their most recent performances to the MLS campaign, but right now we can confidently say that they are capable of them.
Evander is heating up
A number of Timbers players put up solid performances in the Leagues Cup. Cristhian Paredes impressed, Felipe Mora scored and looks fully fit, and Santiago Moreno showed that he just might still have something to give Portland this year.
But the honor of standout performer from Portland’s time in the Leagues Cup has to go to their Brazilian star Evander. Despite playing just two matches, Evander ends the tournament as Portland’s top scorer and most dangerous player.
His golazo against San Jose showcased something slightly new to Evander’s Timbers’ role: trailing the play. Evander has most often been used as the creator highest up the field, frequently lining up almost level with the lead striker. On the goal, which he didn’t celebrate like a stone-cold badass, Evander drifted behind the play, and then collected ball with space to uncork a worldy.
He followed up that performance with another golazo off a free kick against Tigres — which he did celebrate this time — and up until he was abruptly dismissed from the field he looked and acted like the difference maker he is.
Evander’s Timbers tenure has been somewhat divisive among fans, as some in the early months of the year saw his price tag next to his goals & assists numbers and were quick to label him as a bust. But if his Leagues Cup performances, along with many of his more recent MLS performances, are any indication, it’s that the Brazilian magician is the closest to fully locked-in as he has been at any point this season.
If he can keep that up, then it bodes very well for Portland’s postseason hopes.
The Timbers’ biggest problems… are still their biggest problems
Because nothing about the Timbers can ever be unequivocally good, you know there was going to be a downer point in here.
The two aforementioned defensive lapses that cost Portland results against the Liga MX sides were not new occurrences. On far too many occasions this year one or more members of the Timbers backline has fallen asleep or been on a different page as his teammates, and it subsequently created an offensive opportunity for the opponent. Sometimes the danger iswascleaned up, but more often than not it resulted in a goal.
It’s not that Portland’s defense has been particularly atrocious in MLS: their actual and expected goals against numbers are actually pretty middle of the road in the Western Conference. It’s more that the defense isn’t good enough to paper over the offensive inefficacies Portland is currently mired in. They struggled to score goals before the tournament, they struggled to score goals during the tournament, and until we see proof on the pitch I’m going to act under the assumption they will still struggle to score goals after the tournament.
Those two on-field struggles — defense frailty and offensive impotence — are the recipe that has Portland looking up at the playoff line. While the Leagues Cup showed that the Timbers can put in improved performances, it didn’t necessarily prove that any of their previous problems were fixed — yet.
Portland’s MLS fate is all in their hands
Despite the team’s continued weaknesses being at the forefront, the last thing that the Leagues Cup gave Timbers’ fans might just be the scariest: hope.
If the Timbers play up to level they showed against Tigres and Monterrey, then they will make the playoffs. Neither of those games were wins, but they were decidedly improvements over most we’ve seen in 2023. With the talent level of the teams the Timbers will face over these final two months decidedly lower than that of their Liga MX foes, I would wager that a performance akin to their final two Leagues Cup games nets Portland a win more often than not.
The Timbers also potentially have a favorable schedule to get those wins. Out of their final eleven games, six are at Providence Park. All but one of those eleven games are against Western Conference opponents. And outside of perhaps the home match against LAFC, you can categorize every one of Portland’s remaining games as “winnable”.
Add in the fact that the Timbers roster seems to be fully healthy for basically the first time all season, and you can start to see the roadmap, right? Portland rides the wave of positive Leagues Cup performances, comes out revitalized and blazing in league play, and mounts yet another late season surge up the table. All the ingredients are there — it’s just up to the Timbers to put it all together.
When I heard about this tournament, I was looking forward to the opportunity for the Timbers to compete in another format and see other teams outside of the league. I'd like to have seen the Timbers go further, but it would have been tough whether they were playing well or not. Kudos to Monterrey for getting as far as they did under the circumstances. I'd really like that team except for the bleep-hat who knocked D. Chara in the back of the head. I did enjoy them coming back to beat LAFC, though. If there is anything LAFC is lacking it's a ball winner in the midfield, and we have that in Paredes. He's got the quickest feet in the West. So, the tournament was cool in that they competed well against two of the top teams in Mexico, and in some ways really took it to them but the achilles heel is not so much the defense, but the lack of offense. It's tough to beat quality teams without good wing play, either scoring or providing service, and Loria and Asprilla just aren't up to snuff as starters. Because of this, the Timbers will always be in games because they are pretty good elsewhere, but the lack of offense means they do not strike fear into opposing defenses. That would change if Yimmi (who doesn't really strike fear in opposing defenses but is much better than Loria and somewhat better than Asprilla) starts, and other winger x (Antony, maybe) starts and provides some vertical threats and or good service production.
I went off the r ails on Evander early, but I stand by what I was saying, basically, and that is, he's not a 10. He's going to be or already is a really good 8. If he is able to provide offensive production from a deeper position, then perhaps he is worth the 10 million price tag. We'll see. But, it's problematic, because it forced Paredes into a weird role, sometimes playing higher, and that works sometimes, but it also shows his limitations in the final third. Maybe I am seeing it wrong. I think Gio is settling more into a 4-3-3 with Paredes and Evander as 8s and D Chara as a 6. With DC out on yellow card accumulation, I'd like to see Paredes take over DC's role and move Moreno as an 8 alongside Evander. I think the Timbers would own the midfield.
As far as the playoff push goes, I think the schedule looks actually pretty tough. As much as the Timbers look like a formidable squad, too much has gone wrong this year to really anticipate run, although, I wouldn't be surprised to see one, either. They have the potential to smother teams; they just don't know how to finish them off. I hope they can get hot.
I really appreciate how Miami plays now. It looks like Barcelona of old. They keep it and probe. Only a select few (Busquets, Messi and Alba) seem like they are authorized to hit a long ball, and it results in a structured and organized game plan that can be followed. I'm pulling for them in the Leagues Cup. I was hoping for their opponent to be Monterrey, but it looked like they ran out of gas vs Nashville.
"Portland...mounts yet another late season surge up the table."
Sigh. I am so sick of this having to be a thing.
Don't get me wrong - I'm glad they played well against Liga MX teams, but I do wonder how the rust of two-plus weeks off will affect them. Hopefully they can pick up more or less where they left off, but I'm also not counting on it. We'll see if the defense has decided that they can defend for 90 min a game - if they have, this could be a fun end of the season, but if not, buckle up.