Nov 18·edited Nov 18Liked by Phuoc Nguyen (Fook Win)
In what world does combining midfielders and forwards in the vote make sense? Especially since it somehow differentiated between FBs and CBs? How hard is it to separate midfielders and attackers?
I do love Trinity Rodman, the famous central midfielder.
AFAIK the owners haven't set one. A genuinely thorough search does, indeed, take time, which was a great argument for 1) recognizing early in 2024 that LeBlanc wasn't up to the challenge, and 2) easing her upstairs to begin looking for a real GM before the offseason.
I feel like there is a "If a tree falls in the forest " metaphor in there somewhere. If a global coaching search happens at providence park, a no one sees it, did it really happen?
Orlando scores a goal that should never have been allowed (clear foul in the build-up), parks the bus for the rest of the match. Dubious un-called PK in extra time. Basically a match full of earlier-days-of-the-league direct, rough play with minimal tactical sophistication.
How have we all missed the most obvious, low-hanging-fruit nickname option for Rob Gale?
Gob.
Think about how much better his post-match pressers would be if he spoke like Gob...
"Illusions, Michael. A trick is something a whore does for money, or cocaine."
"You brought up money earlier. I would actually like to borrow some."
"Dad always said that was your fault."
"There's not a lot of logic to it. It's kind of like on a boat with "Women and children first." I mean, why should they..."
"My gut is telling me no... but my gut is also very hungry."
"Well, I'm not the president, so I don't deserve a fancy phone."
"Is this a business decision, or is it personal? 'Cause if it's business, I'll go away happily. But if it's personal, I'll go away, but I won't be happy."
"I've made a huge mistake."
And my favorite to imagine hearing from Gale:
"Oh, sure, first you dump all over it, now you want to know how it's done."
I absolutely, 100% get that you want to build the NWSL, as a TV brand, around women playing, women (hopefully increasingly) owning and coaching, women in the broadcast booth, and so on. Still... you've got at least three all-time NBA greats connected to what's happening on the field last night - Magic Johnson and Grant Hill as part owners of Washington and Orlando, and Dennis Rodman as Trinity's father (admittedly with a complicated history of relationship). Game respects game, so why not do more to tout that respect, that sense that while this is the women's game to play and lead, it is also everyone's game to enjoy, admire, appreciate, celebrate, venerate? Why not get a halftime interview, or some quotes, from Magic and Hill talking about what drew them to the NWSL, or contextualizing the greatness and competitive fire of players like Banda, Rodman, Marta?
OMG, this is the best. From Marta, about last weekend's worldie:
"But I was a little bit mad before I scored the goal. I tried to be nice most of the time during the game and I tried to speak to somebody else and she was a little bit diva. I said, OK, you made me mad. I'm gonna go 1-v-1 with you. It happened for a good reason and resulted in a nice goal and really important goal for the team."
In addition to Kielbj's great work in identifying the impact of the Obaze-Sauerbruun (positive) and Hubly-Sauerbruun (negative) pairings on W-D-L and xG differential, I thought this might be worth considering:
Arnold was 0-1-4. The starting CB pairings in those matches?
1-3 Bay FC: Obaze-Hubly (Sauerbruun subbed for Coffey, Muller subbed for Obaze)
1-2 Spirit: Hubly-Sauerbruun (no subs)
0-1 Red Stars: Hubly-Sauerbruun (no subs)
2-2 Angel City: Obaze-Sauerbruun (no subs)
0-2 Wave: Obaze-Sauerbruun (no subs)
So, Thorns were 10-4-12. Arnold was 0-1-4. Hogan was 10-3-8. Obaze was 6-1-6 in 13 regular season matches, including 0-1-2 with Arnold and 6-0-4 with Hogan.
I'm working on a defenders postseason post. In the process I tried to do the same sort of breakdown; which defensive set was more/less effective. Since W/L has a lot of "attacking" elements involved I used opponents' "xG-against per 90 minutes" and post-shot xG-against/90 as a crude measure of defensive sturdiness. The better the opponents looks, the shakier the defense.
The defense breakdowns and xGa/PSxGa are as follows:
The "one-offs" group (oddball defenses seen once all season, 2 matches):
Matchday 1 and 18 - 4-3-3 with Hubly/Obaze at CB:
average xGa 2.36, average PSxGa 2.93
The "Sauerbrunn-Hubly CB" group (14 matches - 4-4-2/4-3-3/4-2-3-1):
average xGa 1.54, average PSxGa 1.67
The "Sauerbrunn-Obaze CB" group (8 matches - 4-4-2/4-3-3/4-2-3-1)
average xGa 1.04, average PSxGa 0.93
The "three-CB" group (3 matches - 3-5-2, 3-4-2-1)
average xGa 1.64, average PSxGa 1.35
The surprising results (to me anyway) are how the three-back underperformed what's supposed to be it's purpose, keeping things tight at the back. And it wasn't the opponents shooting the lights out - it was MD 21, 22, and 23, ACFC, San Diego, and Utah away - or the Thorns not getting chances; the opponents' looks were better only in LA (ACFC had a better xG but not post-shot) and San Diego (Wave's xG was lower but post-shot higher than Portland's).
I wouldn't say a three back isn't really intended to be more inherently "tight" formation defensively, especially the 3-4-3 variant the Thorns were rolling out. Just looking at it numbers-wise, you're functionally sacrificing a defender for a wide midfielder. The Thorns weren't really playing a rotating 3/5 back either like the famous Conte Juventus sides or the Italian NTs that really popularized the 3-5-2; it was mostly just a gung-ho 3-4-3.
Even with that said, the three back failed in this case cause they didn't have the personnel or the tactical nous to run it in properly. They only started using it in the first place because they had no midfielders available because of the olympics and injuries and then kept using it even after it was clear it wasn't working. You need your three CBs to be fast, strong, and good in possession to make it work....and that's certainly not Portland.
You'd think the extra CB would at least give the backline stiffness down the middle and a bit tougher "bunker" inside the 18...and it did pretty much do a decent job cutting off crosses. But you're right; the danger came through the midfield - damn near all the shots in all three games come straight in from near the center of the 18.
It bugs me, because I think Vytas is good people, but his backline has been kind of a mess for a while now. Working for tactical doofs like Norris and Ken can't have helped, but at the end of the day he's the "defensive assistant"...
I would say the well-run versions of the 3-back that utilize three midfielders instead of two can be (and are often meant to be) more solid because they have the ability to accordion in to and out of five backs depending on phase of play. Portland had neither that well-drilled tactical flexibility or the midfield/defensive personnel.
Somewhat relatedly, the history and reasoning behind how the Italian "catenaccio" 3-5-2 developed post-war is actually pretty interesting- It's still the most commonly used formation group in Italy and pretty rarely used everywhere else.
And I think that was Wilkinson's initial plan; that when possession was lost it'd go to a flat back five. Unfortunately she didn't tell her squad that (or have the wingback players who could do it...)
"This extra midfielder is lost against a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, but since the 3-5-2 then benefits from a 3 v 1 at the back, one of the centre backs can step forward into midfield when in possession, a role expertly performed by Leonardo Bonucci at Juventus."
Now I have this mental image of Kelli Hubly "stepping forward into midfield"...
If I read these stats correctly (both Thornando's and FDChief's), they confirm that Sauerbrunn-Obaze was our best pairing by a big margin. This matches the eye test as well, making one wonder even more why Gale continued to leave Obaze on the bench. Some mysteries are just impenetrable.
What is oddest to me is the collapse of the three-CB set. Not just the metrics but the opponents. Even not being familiar with the formation the backline should have done better against those cans.
I'm curious how post shot xG figures here - mostly because it's an after the fact shot that has more to do with the attacker or things outside of a defender's control than say xG
Just a way to add context; was the opponent creating opportunities but failing to finish them? If so then a favorable result might be more a case of a breakdown of the opponent in the final third letting the Thorns defending off the hook after they gave up a dangerous chance.
Hubs appeared in 20 regular season matches, starting all but 1 of them. Team record in those matches was 4-5-11, including 0-0-3 with Arnold and 4-5-8 with Hogan.
Sauerbruun appeared in 25 regular season matches, starting all but 1 of them. Team record was 10-4-11, includng 0-1-4 with Arnold and 10-3-7 with Hogan.
I'm sure there's a more sophisticated analysis to be had, but it does look like our best chance of winning came from having Obaze next to Sauerbruun in front of Hogan, and it's not even close.
Also, it's pretty hard not to notice that the Thorns' decline coincided with the return from the Olympics and the installation of Macca in goal. It wasn't all Macca's fault, of course. Soccer is a series of complex, dynamic interactions. Also, there was a loss leading up to her one-month stint and two more losses (but also two wins) after it. Still, it's hard to deny that the Thorns' season spiraled while Macca was in goal.
Well, the return from the Olympics also coincided with Smith having an injury, so it wasn't just Macca in goal. Smith scored 1 goal in the 5 games Macca started after the Olympics, as opposed to 10 in the 14 games before them. And the Thorns had fallen off a cliff well before the Olympics too, starting with that drab 0-0 draw in Seattle in mid-June. But I agree Macca is no better than our other keepers - to my eye, slightly worse at shot-stopping than Hogan but noticeably better with the ball at her feet.
Agreed. Thorns weren't good from June until the Olympics break - 2-2-1, but bad performances against the Reign, Royals, and Current.
The 0-1-4 wasn't all Macca's fault, by any means. All I'm pointing to is that the spiral happened while she was in goal.
I said before the switch to Macca happened that it was a mistake to make an abrupt change midseason when Hogan and the team around her had settled down.
No way of knowing whether the team would have gone 0-1-4 with Hogan in there instead, but they could hardly have done worse during those 5 games.
That Angelina shoulder check win (and shove lol) leading to the Banda goal is why she's been the best six in the league and why she should have been in the best 11, just sayyyyin
Watching Emily Sams read intentions early and cut play out is like watching someone who lives 3 seconds in the future. Jason Anderson so true she is a good one. If he USWNT has a pairing of Girma and Sams they are set for the next decade.
To me, this just reinforces your point about the shield being a better measure of a team. Having the championship decided by a missed call underscores the randomness of the playoffs.
"Seeing only one Portland Thorn named to the list compared to multiple selections for the top four teams says it all."
Is there an echo around here (at my house)? :-D :-D :-D
Tell it, Phuoc!!!!!!
In what world does combining midfielders and forwards in the vote make sense? Especially since it somehow differentiated between FBs and CBs? How hard is it to separate midfielders and attackers?
I do love Trinity Rodman, the famous central midfielder.
To be fair, Rodman is easily one of the 11 best players in the league.
Yes, but I am of the old fashioned belief that even a best 11 should put players in the correct positions lol
(I had Rodman over Soph in mine fwiw)
How shortly will the GM be hired. Is there a timeline?
There may exist a Bhathal temporal unit, expressed in "Bhathals" and for which we seek a value.
I propose 1.0 Bhathals=2 calendar months and thus, we will know in no more than 2 Bhathals.
Ah, so THAT's what BTUs are!
Love it! Like measuring heat in kelvins… (who was kelvin?) 🤣
Kelvin was the owner of the ThermoDynamics, a team whose all-time point total was absolute zero.
Ha!!!
We gots some smarty pants on this discussion board.
AFAIK the owners haven't set one. A genuinely thorough search does, indeed, take time, which was a great argument for 1) recognizing early in 2024 that LeBlanc wasn't up to the challenge, and 2) easing her upstairs to begin looking for a real GM before the offseason.
But they didn't, so here we are.
A real world wide search takes time. Having said that, the search should have started like a month ago.
I feel like there is a "If a tree falls in the forest " metaphor in there somewhere. If a global coaching search happens at providence park, a no one sees it, did it really happen?
ROFL
Orlando scores a goal that should never have been allowed (clear foul in the build-up), parks the bus for the rest of the match. Dubious un-called PK in extra time. Basically a match full of earlier-days-of-the-league direct, rough play with minimal tactical sophistication.
I want my two hours back.
Not scintillating footy.
How have we all missed the most obvious, low-hanging-fruit nickname option for Rob Gale?
Gob.
Think about how much better his post-match pressers would be if he spoke like Gob...
"Illusions, Michael. A trick is something a whore does for money, or cocaine."
"You brought up money earlier. I would actually like to borrow some."
"Dad always said that was your fault."
"There's not a lot of logic to it. It's kind of like on a boat with "Women and children first." I mean, why should they..."
"My gut is telling me no... but my gut is also very hungry."
"Well, I'm not the president, so I don't deserve a fancy phone."
"Is this a business decision, or is it personal? 'Cause if it's business, I'll go away happily. But if it's personal, I'll go away, but I won't be happy."
"I've made a huge mistake."
And my favorite to imagine hearing from Gale:
"Oh, sure, first you dump all over it, now you want to know how it's done."
Points for all the great AD lines, and I can just imagine Stacey Grenrock-Woods calling him "Gawb" on the PP big screen during the pre-game intros.
I do have to admit my favorite line in the series is probably this one:
MICHAEL (to Gob): "Get rid of the 'Seaward'."
LUCILLE: "I'll leave when I'm good and ready."
What I wouldn't pay to see Gale coming down the tunnel by himself, the last person onto the pitch, entering to "The Final Countdown."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9u5injC-4vo
Our own Phuoc is now the new site manager of SB Nation's AllforXI.
https://www.allforxi.com/masthead
Looks like this happened in early-November.
Melina's been contributing pieces there since early-November too.
I absolutely, 100% get that you want to build the NWSL, as a TV brand, around women playing, women (hopefully increasingly) owning and coaching, women in the broadcast booth, and so on. Still... you've got at least three all-time NBA greats connected to what's happening on the field last night - Magic Johnson and Grant Hill as part owners of Washington and Orlando, and Dennis Rodman as Trinity's father (admittedly with a complicated history of relationship). Game respects game, so why not do more to tout that respect, that sense that while this is the women's game to play and lead, it is also everyone's game to enjoy, admire, appreciate, celebrate, venerate? Why not get a halftime interview, or some quotes, from Magic and Hill talking about what drew them to the NWSL, or contextualizing the greatness and competitive fire of players like Banda, Rodman, Marta?
OMG, this is the best. From Marta, about last weekend's worldie:
"But I was a little bit mad before I scored the goal. I tried to be nice most of the time during the game and I tried to speak to somebody else and she was a little bit diva. I said, OK, you made me mad. I'm gonna go 1-v-1 with you. It happened for a good reason and resulted in a nice goal and really important goal for the team."
One way or another, Marta is crying tomorrow:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/42549356/marta-nwsl-championship-biggest-game-career-orlando-pride
New Exit Survey Diaries! A post-mortem on our two toppled semi-finalists, featuring:
- KC shattering offensive records
- Claire freakin Hutton
- Gotham's absurd talent backfill
- Delanie freakin Sheehan
- Amoros increasing Gotham's verticality
https://www.theeaststandnwsl.com/post/2024-nwsl-exit-survey-diaries-the-semifinalists
A look back between the sticks: https://rivetingpdx.com/2024/11/20/2024-final-grades-goalkeepers/
So, here's something fun...
https://www.instagram.com/p/DCgei0SshxO/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading
I'd call their pairing SamMewis, but that's already taken. The best part is that it looks like we're gonna be able to call them parents.
In addition to Kielbj's great work in identifying the impact of the Obaze-Sauerbruun (positive) and Hubly-Sauerbruun (negative) pairings on W-D-L and xG differential, I thought this might be worth considering:
Arnold was 0-1-4. The starting CB pairings in those matches?
1-3 Bay FC: Obaze-Hubly (Sauerbruun subbed for Coffey, Muller subbed for Obaze)
1-2 Spirit: Hubly-Sauerbruun (no subs)
0-1 Red Stars: Hubly-Sauerbruun (no subs)
2-2 Angel City: Obaze-Sauerbruun (no subs)
0-2 Wave: Obaze-Sauerbruun (no subs)
So, Thorns were 10-4-12. Arnold was 0-1-4. Hogan was 10-3-8. Obaze was 6-1-6 in 13 regular season matches, including 0-1-2 with Arnold and 6-0-4 with Hogan.
Funny you should bring this up...
I'm working on a defenders postseason post. In the process I tried to do the same sort of breakdown; which defensive set was more/less effective. Since W/L has a lot of "attacking" elements involved I used opponents' "xG-against per 90 minutes" and post-shot xG-against/90 as a crude measure of defensive sturdiness. The better the opponents looks, the shakier the defense.
The defense breakdowns and xGa/PSxGa are as follows:
The "one-offs" group (oddball defenses seen once all season, 2 matches):
Matchday 1 and 18 - 4-3-3 with Hubly/Obaze at CB:
average xGa 2.36, average PSxGa 2.93
The "Sauerbrunn-Hubly CB" group (14 matches - 4-4-2/4-3-3/4-2-3-1):
average xGa 1.54, average PSxGa 1.67
The "Sauerbrunn-Obaze CB" group (8 matches - 4-4-2/4-3-3/4-2-3-1)
average xGa 1.04, average PSxGa 0.93
The "three-CB" group (3 matches - 3-5-2, 3-4-2-1)
average xGa 1.64, average PSxGa 1.35
The surprising results (to me anyway) are how the three-back underperformed what's supposed to be it's purpose, keeping things tight at the back. And it wasn't the opponents shooting the lights out - it was MD 21, 22, and 23, ACFC, San Diego, and Utah away - or the Thorns not getting chances; the opponents' looks were better only in LA (ACFC had a better xG but not post-shot) and San Diego (Wave's xG was lower but post-shot higher than Portland's).
Go figure.
I wouldn't say a three back isn't really intended to be more inherently "tight" formation defensively, especially the 3-4-3 variant the Thorns were rolling out. Just looking at it numbers-wise, you're functionally sacrificing a defender for a wide midfielder. The Thorns weren't really playing a rotating 3/5 back either like the famous Conte Juventus sides or the Italian NTs that really popularized the 3-5-2; it was mostly just a gung-ho 3-4-3.
Even with that said, the three back failed in this case cause they didn't have the personnel or the tactical nous to run it in properly. They only started using it in the first place because they had no midfielders available because of the olympics and injuries and then kept using it even after it was clear it wasn't working. You need your three CBs to be fast, strong, and good in possession to make it work....and that's certainly not Portland.
You'd think the extra CB would at least give the backline stiffness down the middle and a bit tougher "bunker" inside the 18...and it did pretty much do a decent job cutting off crosses. But you're right; the danger came through the midfield - damn near all the shots in all three games come straight in from near the center of the 18.
It bugs me, because I think Vytas is good people, but his backline has been kind of a mess for a while now. Working for tactical doofs like Norris and Ken can't have helped, but at the end of the day he's the "defensive assistant"...
I would say the well-run versions of the 3-back that utilize three midfielders instead of two can be (and are often meant to be) more solid because they have the ability to accordion in to and out of five backs depending on phase of play. Portland had neither that well-drilled tactical flexibility or the midfield/defensive personnel.
Somewhat relatedly, the history and reasoning behind how the Italian "catenaccio" 3-5-2 developed post-war is actually pretty interesting- It's still the most commonly used formation group in Italy and pretty rarely used everywhere else.
Cool article here: https://outsideoftheboot.com/2015/03/25/catenaccio-3-5-2-italy-tactics-strategy/
And I think that was Wilkinson's initial plan; that when possession was lost it'd go to a flat back five. Unfortunately she didn't tell her squad that (or have the wingback players who could do it...)
This made me chuckle:
"This extra midfielder is lost against a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, but since the 3-5-2 then benefits from a 3 v 1 at the back, one of the centre backs can step forward into midfield when in possession, a role expertly performed by Leonardo Bonucci at Juventus."
Now I have this mental image of Kelli Hubly "stepping forward into midfield"...
I've blocked that particular mental image from my head, she did *try* to step into midfield pretty frequently and it rarely ended well!
Also:
W/L records and opponents for each group:
Sauerbrunn-Hubly: 4-3-7 (W-D-L); opponents - top 4 (6 of 14) bottom 4 (4 of 14)
Sauerbrunn-Obaze: 6-0-2; opponents - top 4 (2 of 8) bottom 4 (2 of 8)
Three-back: 0-1-2; opponents - top 4 (none of 3) bottom 4 (2 of 3)
One-offs: 0-0-2; opponents - top 3 (1 of 2) bottom 4 (none of 2)
If I read these stats correctly (both Thornando's and FDChief's), they confirm that Sauerbrunn-Obaze was our best pairing by a big margin. This matches the eye test as well, making one wonder even more why Gale continued to leave Obaze on the bench. Some mysteries are just impenetrable.
What is oddest to me is the collapse of the three-CB set. Not just the metrics but the opponents. Even not being familiar with the formation the backline should have done better against those cans.
I'm curious how post shot xG figures here - mostly because it's an after the fact shot that has more to do with the attacker or things outside of a defender's control than say xG
Just a way to add context; was the opponent creating opportunities but failing to finish them? If so then a favorable result might be more a case of a breakdown of the opponent in the final third letting the Thorns defending off the hook after they gave up a dangerous chance.
Hubs appeared in 20 regular season matches, starting all but 1 of them. Team record in those matches was 4-5-11, including 0-0-3 with Arnold and 4-5-8 with Hogan.
Sauerbruun appeared in 25 regular season matches, starting all but 1 of them. Team record was 10-4-11, includng 0-1-4 with Arnold and 10-3-7 with Hogan.
I'm sure there's a more sophisticated analysis to be had, but it does look like our best chance of winning came from having Obaze next to Sauerbruun in front of Hogan, and it's not even close.
Also, it's pretty hard not to notice that the Thorns' decline coincided with the return from the Olympics and the installation of Macca in goal. It wasn't all Macca's fault, of course. Soccer is a series of complex, dynamic interactions. Also, there was a loss leading up to her one-month stint and two more losses (but also two wins) after it. Still, it's hard to deny that the Thorns' season spiraled while Macca was in goal.
Well, the return from the Olympics also coincided with Smith having an injury, so it wasn't just Macca in goal. Smith scored 1 goal in the 5 games Macca started after the Olympics, as opposed to 10 in the 14 games before them. And the Thorns had fallen off a cliff well before the Olympics too, starting with that drab 0-0 draw in Seattle in mid-June. But I agree Macca is no better than our other keepers - to my eye, slightly worse at shot-stopping than Hogan but noticeably better with the ball at her feet.
Agreed. Thorns weren't good from June until the Olympics break - 2-2-1, but bad performances against the Reign, Royals, and Current.
The 0-1-4 wasn't all Macca's fault, by any means. All I'm pointing to is that the spiral happened while she was in goal.
I said before the switch to Macca happened that it was a mistake to make an abrupt change midseason when Hogan and the team around her had settled down.
No way of knowing whether the team would have gone 0-1-4 with Hogan in there instead, but they could hardly have done worse during those 5 games.
Happy for Marta. Even happier for not Kang.
Not a great game, tho.
That Angelina shoulder check win (and shove lol) leading to the Banda goal is why she's been the best six in the league and why she should have been in the best 11, just sayyyyin
She is amazing but that was an egregious foul and Banda’s goal should have been disallowed. Marta got her Championship, that is nice.
Two other defenders impressed me Krueger for the Spirit and Sams for the Pride. I was expecting more goals but both teams defended well.
I hope people watching soccer for the first time enjoyed it, but a wilder offensive game would have been better.
I saw a great comment on the Equalizer:
Watching Emily Sams read intentions early and cut play out is like watching someone who lives 3 seconds in the future. Jason Anderson so true she is a good one. If he USWNT has a pairing of Girma and Sams they are set for the next decade.
To me, this just reinforces your point about the shield being a better measure of a team. Having the championship decided by a missed call underscores the randomness of the playoffs.
Your 2024 Wall of Emilies. Wake Forest v Colorado round of 32:
Wake leads 3-1 with goals from Emily Colton, Emily Morris, Emily Murphy. Emily Murphy and Emily Colton 1 assist each.