Morgan Weaver surely did more for her team than Alex Morgan this year. Although their goal and assist stats are fairly close - Weaver had 7 non-penalty goals, Morgan 5, while Morgan had 5 assists and Weaver 4 - Weaver, to my eye, did a lot more to unlock defenses. Alex has more history in the league and better name recognition - just a tad - so she probably got votes because of that.
Hopefully Weaver's time will come. She took huge strides forward last offseason and I'm hopeful she'll do that again this year, in which case it will be impossible to ignore her.
I have loved watching Morgan Weaver since the Cougars' run for the college cup. Her joy is infectious, and, as the Equalizer article showed, Weaver's stats should put her clearly in the best XI. But I think most voters, both fans and pros, go by the eye test and don't necessarily restrict themselves to the current season. In spite of several very nuanced goals and crosses, what people tend to remember about Weaver's attack are the rockets into Row K. I'm confident her time will come.
I'd argue more so that Williams or Hatch are even more egregious. Ashley Hatch, especially. She was the F who underperformed her xG the most out of any in the league. Baffling how someone who had such a non-year was chosen over Weaver.
Was just coming here to post this! Do you think with the sale we even have a shot? Also, the fact that our coach hasn’t been let go yet lol. I can’t imagine Sinc and KK letting their buddy Carm go elsewhere, but they are also buddies with Mike too….too much Canada, man. KK and Carm are v close. She is also close with Rhian also so I dunno if that’s weird. But yeah, doesn’t really matter if sale is imminent and all hands are tied. I will be so sad if we spend the last of Sophia’s seasons here with Mike again. The most likely I could think would be the Spirit. They’ve got a ton of money and a big vision, and are way ahead of the race than we currently are. Such a fumble to be going into another offseason behind the game, or just not even competing.
"I think recruiting rosters that can execute that is another thing altogether and the coach and GM have to have that vision. I think of Portland and [coach] Mike Norris, not just because he’s Canadian and we have a very similar background, if not the same background. I think he’s about how he plays more so than the results and I really enjoy that style."
She implies that she’s either been interviewing or will be shortly- So, Spirit, Chicago, Houston, or Louisville.
Q: :I recognize you won’t name names here if you’re mid-interview process, but when you say you want to be in the NWSL and you want the right fit, what does that look like?
“It looks like analyzing particular projects. A lot of it has to do with me. Will I have a sustainable [structure]? Me personally, it’s looking at the GM, the president, the structure, the staff organization, looking at the sustainability of the project and if we have an actual chemistry through the interview process. I think that’s really important. A lot of what I’ve been doing is looking at a club, looking at the current roster, areas of improvement, style of play suggestions, maybe moving the chess pieces around a little differently to throw some divergent thinking into the group, so it’s not, what do I bring and how can I bring that culture, but looking and understanding the culture – and you never know until you live it, but really digging into what that currently is.
“Really looking across the globe, I think what I can bring is that idea that I do have a very good handle on not every player and every league, by no means, but I definitely have a good handle on the game and really know where some internationals can come in and impact this league when you only get five [per roster]. I think that the teams who have done that the best, I think of Jess Fishlock and what she’s done in this league for 10 years-plus, like that was a great find, at the beginning: a No. 8 who could do what she did, she’s played multiple roles for the Reign. The difference between one or two or three key internationals is everything and I think some projects can really benefit from looking at how those are utilized.
“And then the Expansion Draft, really digging into what the impact of that is going to be. Nobody really knows. The free agency – there’s a lot and you report on it better than anyone – but I sort of present all of it during the interview processes that I’ve been through. And then we see if we go to the next round. It’s been pretty cool. I’ve been really enjoying this process. It’s been really a lot of work and I’m happy about it. I feel better off for it.”
Q: You hope to be in that position for next season?
“Exactly. And everyone has a different process and timeline. So, also aligning that and being patient with that and keeping the patience going, because some are longer. One was a three-month process. Some of them are a month long. It just depends on the speed at which they want to work. So, I’m still in two processes at the minute and excited about both in different ways. Every project has pros and cons.”
Seems a good fit, but idk if they have the juice to get her. Seems like she’s pretty highly regarded... hence why I think the spirit would be the faves if they’re interested.
Crystal just posted on her instagram a goodbye to Portland, as her time here is up. No word on where she's headed, but, that's a big loss....
I only hope it's not for another NWSL team, but I doubt she's headed overseas. Still, not a great look for Portland to be losing their high profile players in free agency (regardless of what happened with her husband), and will now just be the next thumb in the eye for Thorns fans. More fodder for the internet to just drag this city down a little more. Frees up some cap space, but we lose her for nothing. Not unexpected, but I'm pretty bummed regardless because she had long been one of my favorite players. Kinda hope she goes to France or something so I don't have to see her elsewhere in this league, but my guess, she's off to Gotham or Angel City.
...but at least Sinc is staying around another year right?! Frees up space in the midfield for her. :(
Looking on the bright side - this forces the FO's hand. They have to do something this offseason and if Becky leaves then all the more so. And we have TAM and cap space to do it with. Standing pat is not an option.
I just don't know what big options exist out there for us. I just reviewed the 2024 free agency list and felt pretty underwhelmed. In Europe? There are some interesting names, but I don;'t know that I see too many I think we could get. Maybe Grosso? Maybe go with a big splash and go for Earps?
Also, I see Dydasco and Gorden on the list - I would be happy to get them! In terms of GK, I would wait for the expansion draft to make a move. As Abell4 pointed out elsewhere, there will be plenty of unprotected keepers and we might be able to swing a deal (e.g. you take Hiracik in expansion and we'll swap her for X).
The Spain WNT players have been bolting and there seem to be prime pickings there. I am *certain* that KK spent her off-camera time in Australia chatting them up.
I think the plan should be to get a few NWSL FAs for depth, and then go abroad for the splashes.
This also gets to what we were discussing elsewhere in this thread: We’re (most likely) not going to be able to lure top talent already in Europe, so developing a scouting network is crucial. Japan would be the first place I’d start, but I’d also want to be looking to poach young South Americans from subpar leagues. A “splash” signing doesn’t necessarily need to be bringing Lena Oberdorf here, it should be finding inefficiencies in under-appreciated talent. As Aidan said above, Hina should be the model for the type of signings we’re looking at.
Yeah, and like, who would wanna come here from overseas? I'd really love for them to try for Emily Fox. I did see that Grosso's contract is up in 2024...
I'm sure any of those big name players would wanna know who they were gonna be playing for, and Mike Norris isn't really a tantalizing pull for players lol.
Yeah, that was my second thought after "goddamnit" hah. They will have to find at least 2 pretty high-level signings, and many more depth players. Just not sure if I trust KK to get that work done, to be honest...I really can't deal if she spends the Horan money on another Janine Beckie (who was one of the most expensive transactions in the NWSL, at the time.)
Also, how do we draw any big names right now with the state of this club over the last several years? No doubt players overseas have seen the dumpster fire in Portland from their European flats. Add the sale on top of it and potentially a new coach and selling a rebuild of sorts to a European star could be difficult...especially in an Olympic year where they might wanna stay close to home.
I hate to see it, especially since it seemed Smith really looked up to her as a role-model of sorts. But honestly, IMO Dunn wasn't a great fit on the field, and the Thorns best midfield going forward would likely have been Coffey, Hina and Moultrie (and Rodriquez if 4) either way. Also, not for nuthin', but: on a team with a shaky defense that was sorely lacking speed and athleticism, and also missing a fast winger to pair with Weaver, she could have helped the team tremendously moving to LB or F. But she was set on proving herself a playmaking MF on a team that already had a bunch of those. As a result, the Thorns had to endure games where the likes of Nally and others were trying to plug holes on a struggling back line, while the likes of Rodriguez and Hina had to join Moultrie on the bench because of the logjam at MF.
Crystal Dunn’s whole thing is that she’s a *perfect* fit In pretty much every team. She’s a midfielder/attacker and has been her whole career. Implying that she outright refused to play FB or wing is totally unsubstantiated anyhow, but beyond that, she’s a better midfielder than a winger or a FB, and it was in the team’s best interests to play her there. It’s not her job to fix roster gaps. She easily fits into the Thorns best 11, and I’d say Hina is the only midfielder I value more.
It’s a huge loss. It’s OK to acknowledge that. This is a good example of what most of us have been saying for a while now: The Thorns are simply not the best place for free agents to be anymore, and there’s work to be done to change that.
I don't know if present day 2023 Crystal Dunn is a huge loss in all honesty, but I do think there's a perception that's more damaging. It all goes back to the sale needing to be wrapped up ASAP so we can actually move forward as an organization.
I don’t really agree with the notion that Crystal Dunn isn’t a big loss on-field. She’s not necessarily what she was athletically 5 years ago, but I think a lot of the weird fit issues were because of the deeper role she was asked to play and the uncertainty around how Norris wanted the midfield to function. I didn’t really notice a loss of anything individually, and she’s certainly not gonna be an easy player to replace.
But yes: I do agree that the bigger concern is the off-field connotations of her announcing her departure days after the season ended.
Just to be coldly clinical, it is always better to lose a great player before their inevitable decline sets in. And Dunn is in the later stages of her career.
She’s a massive loss, but I’ve been expecting this day as soon as Pierre got let go. Orlando or a return to Charlotte would seem like a fit. I can’t imagine not wanting to be close to Pierre and Orlando needs midfielders.
Curious to see what’s next, but I’d like to see Moscato hired which may open up the possibility of Deanne Rose.
Moscato has good football connections all over the world as well, and is very well-liked. Wonder how she feels though if her Canadian compatriots are given the boot here. Again, the draw will really depend on WHO will be in the FO. And, we don’t even know if we’re getting a new coach yet….
The only NWSL teams she DOESN’T follow on Instagram (incl expansion teams): San Diego, Thorns, Kansas City, Utah, NC Courage.
Yes. What I mean is that we've had two top-flight players in a row who didn't want to stay when they had an option to go. Horan was under contract, I know, but her statements about the organization back at the end of 2022 weren't great. And here too, Crystal makes reference to "trust and accountability" in thinking back on her 3 years here.
What bugs me about this (beyond just losing a talented player) is what it suggests about the sale - that Dunn wasn't willing to wait here for the new owner(s) to make her an offer makes me wonder if she is dubious ABOUT the new owner(s), or the timing of the sale...or even IF there's a sale.
As far as her role here (re: Stefan's comment below), she's an excellent player. If she wasn't a good fit here (and I agree that she seemed to struggle to find her best role on the pitch) that's just another big questionmark about the series of coaches we've had going back to Parsons (who never seemed to find a way to use her well...)
So while I tend to agree with kielbj that some player signings need to be in the works, the really critical signing is a head coach. This club has bobbled along since 2018 with "good enough, I guess..." in the technical box. It's time for the owner(s) - whoever the hell they are or will be - to reach big.
Yep. The new FO has to show that they’re ready to make a big splash, and that starts with the coach. There’s always a level of uncertainty with any coach hire, but the fact that a number of players --Dunn included-- were unable to lock into a role doesn’t speak well of latter stage Parsons, RW, or Norris. Just find someone who knows how to they want their team to play. I beg!
Re: Dunn....it’s certainly possible her decision was made entirely due to external factors (Pierre, “new challenge,” desire to move back home, etc). But, if those weren’t the primary reasons, it is concerning she announced this days after the Thorns season ended. Seems to indicate that she had her mind made up.
We’ll probably never know unless she does an interview or something, but it could be something....or nothing at all. Kinda hoping she goes to Gotham just so it’s a “retire at home” type situation.
Regardless, the next 1.5 months will tell us a lot even before we know who the new owners are. If there are any other significant departures, it’ll bring me a lot closer to panic time. Dreading the random day after thanksgiving Meg Linehan tweet with bad news about Hina or Soph requesting out, however unlikely that is. Dunn staying would have made me more confident, rightly or wrongly.
I do tend to think it had something to do with Pierre. I posted about this back when it happened in August, but Pierre got a job in Tallahassee with the brand new USL W side, Tallahassee Reckoning, who begin their inaugural season in 2024. Outside Seattle, Portland is about as far away as you can get.
With this, Orlando would make the most sense....although anyone wanting to live (or play) in FL is baffling. But, she's already shown that she'd move across country to follow her husband. It's what brought her here in the first place...Still though, Tallahassee is a 4 hr drive to Orlando.
Marta is signed for 2024, and they also have Adriana. It would be lovely if KK could use that money to get Adriana here, if they indeed acquire Dunn as another 10. ::)
I don't think it has to do with where Pierre is but I wouldn't be shocked if Pierre's firing (and I think it's pretty clear he couldn't come back here after a year) has some part to do with it, tbh.
Ooh I must have missed your post about that. Given how far Florida is (even NYC is half the flight time from Tallahassee than from the west coast), that probably was a decent indicator.
(Doubt she does go to Orlando, but that would be v cool!)
For goodness sakes her not wanting to be here is most likely overwhelmingly because she is essentially a single mom who travels alot. Got to think getting nearer to her husband has to be objective 1 through 100.
Not great! Hopefully doesn’t portend other big exits as well. Dunn leaving isn’t a total disaster on its own, but I would have felt a whole lot better about how the players felt about the direction of the org if she had re-signed.
New FO has some real work to do. Really can’t afford to cruise into next season with this roster plus a few rookies and low level free agents. I’d say two real, marquee signings are needed.
Yeah, the squad needs a big refresh, and also needs to get a lot younger IMV. I don't know if we need genuine name recognition stars but more Hina type signings.
Was literally going to say the exact same thing about Hina-type signings: well regarded players in their early 20s that have a reasonably high floor. Hope the new owners invest in scouting.
It’s also the model NWSL as a whole need to adopt, because it’s going to be harder and harder to sign big name players in their primes.
I think we might be too optimistic about Becky here too.
There are so many unanswered questions going into the offseason, but "run it back" is clearly not an option and yet we still have no idea if/when there will be a new owner.
Stuff we knew/suspected/sensed that turn out to be true--women's sports about to become a fiscal juggernaut.
"Deloitte predicts that in 2024, revenue generated by women’s elite sports will surpass US$1 billion for the first time, with US$1.28 billion in total forecast revenues. This total is projected to be at least 300% higher than when we last wrote our prediction on this topic in 2021. Our forecast is composed of commercial (US$696 million, 55%), broadcast (US$340 million, 27%), and matchday (US$240 million, 18%) revenues.
"A sharp increase in commercial revenue is the major growth driver, followed by income from broadcast and matchday sources. The largest geographical markets are forecast to be North America (US$670 million, 52%) and Europe (US$181 million, 14%) while the two most valuable sports are projected to be football/soccer (US$555 million, 43%) and basketball (US$354 million, 28%).
Global competitions such as the FIFA Women’s World Cup, Ladies Professional Golf Association (LPGA) tour, and Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) tour, are expected to contribute US$425 million (33%) of the forecast total.
"As an indicator of the potential in, and momentum behind, women’s elite sports, Deloitte expects valuations for teams and leagues to continue to rise, with several teams’ values predicted to exceed US$100 million in 2024. The allure for investors could be the opportunity to buy into a growing sector for a modest outlay relative to other elite sports properties. Spending by new and established investors is likely to fund increased professionalization and commercialization across women’s elite sports, which in turn could lead to more spectacular playing performances, increased spectator interest, and thus potentially higher returns on investment. The experience of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup was a testament to the continuing improvement in the technical capability of the players, coaches, and referees. As one example of the increasing prowess of female athletes, in the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, England’s Chloe Kelly’s penalty kick peaked at 111 km/h, a speed higher than every kick speed recorded in the 2022-2023 men’s England Premier League season.
"Surpassing the billion-dollar revenue milestone is expected to be significant, especially given the turbulence of recent years for elite sports. In 2024, women’s elite sports should continue to bask in the multi-faceted success of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup which generated more than US$570 million in revenue.2 Women’s elite sport is developing swiftly in stature, but is also still nascent, with many of the major leagues only established in the last decade, and many territories yet to establish a mainstream culture around women’s elite sports."
I would not be surprised to see them turn around and sell the team again in a few years.
They're real estate developers.
They're getting in now when they think an asset is still undervalued and is about ready to take a big leap in value.
They're also using that asset to have access to where the real lucrative opportunities lie. It's just smart.
Say what you will about Merritt, and it's all deserved, but we also have to acknowledge that he loved the Thorns, got into the NWSL for the right reasons, and never wanted to sell the team.
I don't know that we will always be able to say the same things about future owners.
Honestly, that's one of the most frustrating things about the whole mess: MP seemed (and for the most part _behaved_) like a model owner, someone deeply committed to the team and the league they play in. But the feet of clay proved to be clown-shoe-sized and afflicted with a nuclear case of bromodosis.
I've been worried all along that forcing him out could end up being a "careful what you wish for" scenario. I'm not getting that vibe from these prospective new owners (or much of a vibe at all, tbh), but who knows what's coming down the line.
It's so funny you mention this because I just went DOWWWN the rabbithole on upcoming large building projects coming to the city very soon. Your comment on future new buildings at PSU and how City of Portland really has a need/want to revitalize the downtown core had me looking around for info...
So, a few days ago I mentioned that Revitate has some other new investments in Portland...specifically here's Sandy Pine. Revitate has invested in the multifamily building, and it looks like Lever Architecture (Portland and LA-based) is involved in the project. Looking at their projects, Lever Architecture does beautiful work, btw...:
I got a PSU newsletter email a few days ago, and inside (among many other news items) was the announcement of the new Art + Design Center at PSU. Lever architecture is the firm chosen for the project. (set to start building in 2024):
PSU has also recently (last month) entered a proposal to City of Portland/Metro to replace the old Keller Auditorium on campus as part of more revitalizing of the downtown area...if approved, I'm curious if Lever will be also picked for that project as well:
I listened to this short interview (15 mins) with Alex Bhathal today (it's from last year) about real estate "opportunity zones" (I have no idea still what that means, but...), but the question (starting around 9:45) about what type of markets Revitate is looking for is kind of illuminating...
Anyways, whew. Revitate and Lever do seem to have some sort of relationship, given the Sandy Pine development that is/was supposed to start building this fall. And these other huge projects seem to fit their profile. As you mention, purchase of the Thorns, with one (new facilities), possibly two (new stadium) huge real estate deals could be the hook here and, also as you say, I wouldn't be surprised to see them flip the team in a few years, when projects are done (and valuations are way up.) Regardless of if they’re investing in the PSU projects with Lever, they definitely seem interested in the real estate potential of the Thorns, but I'm not sure if they care two shits about the technical side of things (or women's soccer in general....)
Hmmm. Still pretty murky for me, but it seems like they’d be looking for real estate deals in those highlighted areas on the map to benefit? Wonder where they’d wanna put a training facility out of the Portland OZ’s shown… 🤔
It would be cool if they built a world-class training facility, and received a tax break for doing so, and contributed to development of good, affordable housing, shopping, etc. around it.
Trying to be positive here...even if they built them a beautiful training facility, and then split, it would still make the soccer side much more valuable because it would draw top players, and keep our stars now. Provided, of course, there's some remediation of our reputation and there's no further scandals...and getting more housing built in the process isn't a bad thing for this city. They do really seem interested in putting these sorts of things in the urban core, though. Is there anywhere that a world class practice facility (+ development) would fit within the city core? I wonder if there is some chunk of land in the NW industrial area, or heading up north along the 30...
my guess/fear is they come in low ball effort cant get new stadium then declare portland is not a sustainable market without new stadium and then move at that point.
At that point we went from having an owner that loved portland loved his thorns but made a mistake. Instead of showing him grace as a fallible human we whined and screamed and now we have no team.
You cannot seriously be defending Merritt Paulson in November 2023 after MULTIPLE independent reports found him at fault for many many instances of sexual assault and/or abuse.
There’s showing grace for a mistake if someone takes ownership of that mistake. Paulson never did. Everything he did after October 2021 was underhanded and done while he was kicking and screaming. And when there are patterns, as several reports found, you cannot say that someone is “just” making a mistake.
That is incorrect he was not at fault for the actions of a disgusting person. He may have been responsible for not promptly and openly outing his behavior, but he certainly did not participate. What is that they say about hindsight?
Paulson didn't know the abuse was happening until after it happened, so I see him at fault for that only to the extent that "he's in charge, so ultimately everything is his responsibility." But Riley was a sly dog and I don't know any owner who would have known.
But Paulson completely knew about the abuse after it happened, the Thorns investigated, and he fired Riley - AND HE DIDN'T ENSURE THAT THE BASTARD NEVER COACHED AGAIN. That to me is his real sin - not protecting the players. In fact Paulson was apparently a Twitter pal of Riley afterwards, which just rubs his nose in the stinking pile.
"Lots of fans I read 1) love Weaver to death and 2) were pretty pissed that she was overlooked on the league honors list. No Best XI, not even a Second XI.
Here’s the thing; matches like this are why Weaver isn’t a consensus First XI.
Now I love Weaver, too; Happy Warrior Chaos Muppet that she is. But if you don’t see the whole player all you might see the holes in her game. She passes well…until she doesn’t (Sunday? 22 of 38, 58%). She shoots well…until she doesn’t (2 shots on frame, but both right at Haught and we saw the uglier of the two of those earlier…).
Unless you see her a lot you probably haven’t noticed how she’s upgraded her game all season and over the past seasons. She used to “run fast shoot hard and straight”; now she’s got more guile and precision. She used to occasionally help out on defense; now she’s a forechecking beast (6 of 12 duels won, same as Sam Coffey’s 50%) and a persistent presser.
But until she can consistently be all those things, all the time, especially in big matches like this one where neutrals can see that? She’s going to continue to be low-rated by those outsiders and neutrals."
To be fair to her Sunday, she was pretty clearly still feeling the effects of whatever happened to her knee against ACFC. Looked about 70% as explosive as she usually does, though that doesn’t excuse the sitter she missed.
She’s not a perfect player, but she pretty objectively had a better --and, importantly, more consistent-- year than pretty much any forward in the league not named Kerolin or pre-WC Smith. She had more non-penalty goals than Morgan, Williams, and Hatch, more assists than Hatch and Williams, and a better G+ than all three of them.
We can quibble about why she doesn’t have the name recognition, but there’s no legitimate reason why she didn’t at least make the second team.
Legitimate or not, fair or not, she didn't help her cause Sunday, and that's been an issue for the past season, too. The thing about being "not-Kerolin" or Williams or Morgan is that those players will always have a head start purely on name recognition, and the problem with journos either not understanding or willfully disregarding soccer stats like G+. "Oh, sure, she scored more and assisted more...but Morgan! Veteran! Leadership! Baby Horse! Legend!"
That's not "legitimate"...but it's really typical and that was my point; that given the circumstances it wasn't surprising she got overlooked this year.
I think if she and Smith continue the production they had this year she'll be a shoo-in in 2024.
And let me add; I'm dismissive of these yearly awards in general and have been for years. The voters seem clueless at best, and obsessed with name-recognition - the Morgan award you point out is a great example. So it doesn't bug me about Weaver this year - the fact that a major sports publication just had a whole piece on her as "underrated" should help raise her profile for 2024
OT: Watching the Barry Sanders documentary. I see the same kind of balance, footwork, fakes, and refusal to be taken down from our Soph. Hina has some similarities too. =)
I leave all 3 keepers unprotected because at this point I don't really see a major reason to keep Bix over Hogan and I'm okay with losing my 3rd keeper.
If one of the expansion sides selects Bix or Hogan, then I move the other into my 10th slot.
If an expansion side selects Beckie or Betfort, I am still okay with letting Bix and Hogan remain exposed because at the end of the day I will have one of them. In that case, I use the 10th spot to protect Beckie or Befort (whichever one was not drafted)
I protect Hubly over Betfort and Beckie because the CB situation remains an unknown.
I am okay with losing Beckie, D'Aquila, and Nally.
I personally am not happy about exposing Betfort, but there are clearly 9 players ahead of her that I have to protect if I don't have a roster protection deal in place. If I were one of the expansion teams I'd think long and hard about taking Betfort over Beckie.
I recently had occasion to talk with a couple of women's coaches, and they're very high on Betfort's upside because of her work rate and physical tools, as well as how much she improved and showed flashes this past year.
That said, I think Betfort would be better here than she would be on an expansion team, because she's going to need strong players around her; that's not typically what happens on an expansion team (SD Wave notwithstanding). It's too easy for developing players to get lost on struggling young teams where everybody is fighting for minutes.
Yeh, those are the same 9 I would protect as well.
I'd go slightly different after that, though. Or moreso, I think for slightly differing reasons.
I'd leave all 3 keepers unprotected as well. But, I do so because there will be at least 4 other 2nd keepers also left unprotected from other teams who I think are better than any we can offer. That's not to say that Bix or Hogan wouldn't get take anyway as a 2nd keeper for an expansion side because they may not be super interested in the rest of our roster (slim pickings)...I do still think Bixby or Beckie would be the two most valuable players of ours left unprotected, and could get taken regardless of need. Beckie is coming back from injury, though, so maybe that's risky....
Even if an expansion side took one of the two GK's (likely it'd be Bixby), I wouldn't use the +1 on Hogan because I really don't think she'd be taken so I'd rather use it for a field player. That player would probably be Beckie, for me. She's not really starting quality, but she's the good depth B-level player we are severely lacking. We are also dying for wingers and I think she might be more effective than we've seen so far...so long as I never see her as a defender.
I know you're high on Betfort, but I am still not there yet with her. I very much like her personality (she's hilarious), but I'd be less upset to lose her than I think I remember feeling with Charley at the time...I still think we need a better backup 9. And now we have Betfort and D'Aquila and neither have super impressed me thus far. If she can be converted to a winger? Fine, I actually think she'd be better there.
The rest of your reasoning I agree with, though!
Wild card scenario....Nadine Angerer goes to Bay FC and is interested in taking either Bix or Hogan.
My take on the keepers is you protect Hogan as designated Keeper to Keep, then presume the only way you lose Kozal is to Nadine, who is the sole person in the league with adequate insight on whether she'd be worth the investment cost to bring in.
What good things has KK LeBlanc done as GM here? I'm trying to think of moves and not coming up with much. We drafted Coffey, which is GREAT. Anything else? We drafted Reyes, which is good, but we could have had USWNT-bound Nighswonger.... we got Beckie, who was kinda meh even when she could play.... we got Leon and Sevecke, which are true "WTF?" signings.... We got a bunch of bench-warmers.... anything else of note? What/who have I forgotten?
And I totally disagree with the idea that "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." A better adage for sports teams is, "If you aren't moving forward, you're falling behind." Look at Man City for example. They're active in every transfer window despite winning the league pretty nearly every year. Real Madrid and Barcelona don't sit on their hands either. The Thorns are that level of team in the WoSo world and should act like it.
Maybe a better job for KK would be community relations director or something, since she seems great personally.
Coffey was a Parsons draft pick who ended up spending her 5th year in college because of the covid eligibility thing.
On KK's watch...brought in Vasconcelos (first as an NTRP), Beckie, and drafted Reyes, among other end of bench rookie players. Weird transactions of Leon and Sevecke. And then all of those other weird transactions of NTRP's over the summer that were pointless...
So, really, nothing.
Agree with everything here. You're in the best shape to stay on top if you make little tweaks each season when you have a championship caliber team. It's a lot harder to build that back up again. She's really done nothing and I've been super disappointed. I’m hoping new owners will move her to a different role in the club (wouldn’t mind her staying) and get us a GM who knows what they’re doing. There is the caveat of the sale, but she's been here over two years. She's now had two offseasons before this one...let's hope she's learned something!
I kinda think she meant more so that each league game is as competitive as each UWCL game, not that the quality of each NWSL team is that of a Barca (they're absolutely not) but I do think it's hilarious how big mad people are lol. People aren't even ready to admit THAT (which is correct)...
I watched the most recent Liga F Barca game randomly yesterday while I was cleaning my house (on DAZN youtube), and the other team's keeper was just giving away the worst goals, like comically worse than college level. Aitana racked up 2 or 3 that should've been easily dealt with, so did Oshoala. It was just like, not a competition AT ALL. Barca didn't even look amazing either, but it was still like 7 or 8-1. The announcers were hilarious too, because when it was 6-1, they were praising the losing team for "keeping it close" because it was Barca. Fans of that league aren't serious lmao.
Yeah she wasn’t implying that the NWSL is all at the level of Barcelona, but I do think she was saying that quality of the teams means that the competitiveness is higher....not just that the parity makes the league level. She wouldn’t have referenced the champions league if she was just talking about competitiveness vis parity.
Yep. From what I've watched, there are three genuinely competitive leagues in 1st division WoSo. They are, in order of competitiveness: the NWSL, followed pretty closely by the WE League and then, a bit further behind, the FAWSL. I haven't recently seen much from countries like Denmark and Sweden, but Liga F, L1F, and the Frauen-Bundesliga are absolutely a couple stellar teams + tomato cans.
Yes Esther, you tell them. It is what people here have been saying all along. The NWSL is the most competitive league in the world. The best European teams could beat most of the time the top teams in the NWSL, but every European league is pretty top heavy.
Yeah, I mean that's what happens when you have no salary cap. Euro clubs can buy top int'ls from top to bottom and have a roster full of 'em if that's where they wanna spend. They can also pay for the best players in their prime. As long as NWSL has a salary cap, they will never be able to compete with Euro clubs. BUT, there are iterations of some NWSL clubs that could at least compete with their starting XI's. Still, even then it's still a tad lopsided. Comparing full rosters, it's pretty easy to see.
Euro clubs can (and do) have better top teams, but their leagues suffer because of it. NWSL is a more balanced/competitive league because all clubs are capped and talent is much more dispersed throughout the league. It's not a hard concept, but many people don't get that both can be true.... that the top Euro clubs are better than the top of the NWSL, but also that the NWSL is the most competitive league in the world. Would the best NWSL teams win sometimes against those teams? Sure!
we may be more balanced but I also feel there is a subsequent lack of technical and tactical development we dont see with top European clubs. We saw this in last wwc. US tactically and technically was pretty much outrun and outmuscle compared to the quality of team play seen with Sweden, Japan and Spain for example. This starts in youth, watching top level ECNL teams play much of the game is still about athletics over tactics.
NWSL playoffs expanding to top 8 in 2024. That's a mistake. I could live with 7, with #1 receiving a first-round bye. But 8 out of 14 is approaching NHL-level of rewarding mediocrity with a chance to get hot and win a championship. Boo-urns!
It’s so gross. This league has enough parity without having over 50% of the league having a chance to win three playoff games and get a title. Idk why we’re trying to turn NWSL into MLS.
I was already there, but this pushes me even more into “shield over championship” territory.
And you hear it from players too. In the most recent Re-Cap, Tobin said winning the shield is much more impressive and that playoff form can be thrown off because of the NWSL playoff schedule.
When more than half a league makes the playoffs, it just reeks of "milking it for profit." What's next? NBA-style glitz-n-glamor halftime "entertainment" complete with shit-tier music? Hey, maybe they could change the rules and/or officiating protocols to allow more scoring! Fans love scoring, right?
I think the issues we've seen are largely because we've been sort of drifting along without real vision in the technical box. We can slag off on KK all we like, but in a better organization it'd be the HC whose vision for the team pointed her at the players wanted for that vision.
That needs to happen first, and done right. Then we'll see who's in what tier in that HC's plans...
Yeah, I do think this should be Job 1, and hope new ownership have already started putting feelers out for who is available/interested. They gotta get someone in before the college draft in January for sure, but ideally before the expansion draft as well.
Agree with all of that, and I'd say we could also really use a decent fullback (or two, dep on Kuikka.) Still not sure about Reyes as a starter, so I'd say we should try for a starting quality LB. If Natu sticks around, Kling can be the backup RB (or LB.)
Yeah could definitely use a Westphal type. I loved what I’ve seen out of Reyes though; to the point where I feel pretty confident in her as the LB of the future. She had a few mistakes in her first couple games, but has rarely put a foot wrong since. In a position that’s damn hard to play as a rookie, she’s been super impressive.
Her and Po are on the FA list...but yeah, would be great to have a fullback that's around year-round but is still pretty consistently a great player. I was actually quite bummed when she left because I think she's a great fullback.
But honestly, if we lose Kuikka too, we should have a lot of damn money and cap space and I hope we throw lots of money at Emily Fox, who is also a restricted free agent. Though, with all of NC's lower levels players I'm sure they can afford to pay her quite well. We need some high caliber players on our backline though, and I'd say a US-based player is a better bet than finding an international. She can play both LB and RB pretty well, and she'd be a player to build that backline around who is still young.
Still a wish! She’s a FA, so, you never know…wanting to leave a very bad Louisville team wasn’t too surprising. She won’t be protected/signed until after the draft and thus will probably at least be entertaining offers, even if she has no intention of leaving.
We don't have much of an aerial game, but we also don't get great service into the box. I liked that about Westphal a lot. I'd be happy to have Westphal and Po back here, especially if we're losing Kuikka and Kling is, well, getting older.
Her time will come. She deserved it this year, but I do think the end of the season may have tarnished her run a tad. Not sure why Washington had 3, but I respect the game of all on the list
Morgan Weaver surely did more for her team than Alex Morgan this year. Although their goal and assist stats are fairly close - Weaver had 7 non-penalty goals, Morgan 5, while Morgan had 5 assists and Weaver 4 - Weaver, to my eye, did a lot more to unlock defenses. Alex has more history in the league and better name recognition - just a tad - so she probably got votes because of that.
Hopefully Weaver's time will come. She took huge strides forward last offseason and I'm hopeful she'll do that again this year, in which case it will be impossible to ignore her.
I have loved watching Morgan Weaver since the Cougars' run for the college cup. Her joy is infectious, and, as the Equalizer article showed, Weaver's stats should put her clearly in the best XI. But I think most voters, both fans and pros, go by the eye test and don't necessarily restrict themselves to the current season. In spite of several very nuanced goals and crosses, what people tend to remember about Weaver's attack are the rockets into Row K. I'm confident her time will come.
I'd argue more so that Williams or Hatch are even more egregious. Ashley Hatch, especially. She was the F who underperformed her xG the most out of any in the league. Baffling how someone who had such a non-year was chosen over Weaver.
Moscato left Tigres with the intention of coaching in the NWSL.
She's Canadian, and a longtime CWNT teammate of Sinc's.
Just sayin'...
Was just coming here to post this! Do you think with the sale we even have a shot? Also, the fact that our coach hasn’t been let go yet lol. I can’t imagine Sinc and KK letting their buddy Carm go elsewhere, but they are also buddies with Mike too….too much Canada, man. KK and Carm are v close. She is also close with Rhian also so I dunno if that’s weird. But yeah, doesn’t really matter if sale is imminent and all hands are tied. I will be so sad if we spend the last of Sophia’s seasons here with Mike again. The most likely I could think would be the Spirit. They’ve got a ton of money and a big vision, and are way ahead of the race than we currently are. Such a fumble to be going into another offseason behind the game, or just not even competing.
Someone with an equalizer sub give us the deets plz: https://equalizersoccer.com/2023/11/17/carmelina-moscato-interview-leaving-tigres-nwsl-interviews/
Also in the Equalizer story.
"I think recruiting rosters that can execute that is another thing altogether and the coach and GM have to have that vision. I think of Portland and [coach] Mike Norris, not just because he’s Canadian and we have a very similar background, if not the same background. I think he’s about how he plays more so than the results and I really enjoy that style."
So Carm may not be planning to coach here.
Hm. Wonder when that actual interview took place because was she watching the latter parts of the season? Lol.
Also not sure I like “he cares more about how he plays than the results” But yeah, seems about right. Inflexible, indeed.
She implies that she’s either been interviewing or will be shortly- So, Spirit, Chicago, Houston, or Louisville.
Q: :I recognize you won’t name names here if you’re mid-interview process, but when you say you want to be in the NWSL and you want the right fit, what does that look like?
“It looks like analyzing particular projects. A lot of it has to do with me. Will I have a sustainable [structure]? Me personally, it’s looking at the GM, the president, the structure, the staff organization, looking at the sustainability of the project and if we have an actual chemistry through the interview process. I think that’s really important. A lot of what I’ve been doing is looking at a club, looking at the current roster, areas of improvement, style of play suggestions, maybe moving the chess pieces around a little differently to throw some divergent thinking into the group, so it’s not, what do I bring and how can I bring that culture, but looking and understanding the culture – and you never know until you live it, but really digging into what that currently is.
“Really looking across the globe, I think what I can bring is that idea that I do have a very good handle on not every player and every league, by no means, but I definitely have a good handle on the game and really know where some internationals can come in and impact this league when you only get five [per roster]. I think that the teams who have done that the best, I think of Jess Fishlock and what she’s done in this league for 10 years-plus, like that was a great find, at the beginning: a No. 8 who could do what she did, she’s played multiple roles for the Reign. The difference between one or two or three key internationals is everything and I think some projects can really benefit from looking at how those are utilized.
“And then the Expansion Draft, really digging into what the impact of that is going to be. Nobody really knows. The free agency – there’s a lot and you report on it better than anyone – but I sort of present all of it during the interview processes that I’ve been through. And then we see if we go to the next round. It’s been pretty cool. I’ve been really enjoying this process. It’s been really a lot of work and I’m happy about it. I feel better off for it.”
Q: You hope to be in that position for next season?
“Exactly. And everyone has a different process and timeline. So, also aligning that and being patient with that and keeping the patience going, because some are longer. One was a three-month process. Some of them are a month long. It just depends on the speed at which they want to work. So, I’m still in two processes at the minute and excited about both in different ways. Every project has pros and cons.”
My hunch would be Houston. It would be a nifty transition to go from Tigres to coaching some players who play for Mexico.
Seems a good fit, but idk if they have the juice to get her. Seems like she’s pretty highly regarded... hence why I think the spirit would be the faves if they’re interested.
Would be quite the get! We also still have a coach, unfortunately, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Moscato would be a spirit-t hire imo.
New Riveting stuff. Thanks, Chief!
https://rivetingpdx.com/2023/11/12/into-the-woods/
You forgot Iffy as the 9th former Thorn who won the 'ship with Gotham.
9 former players? It's almost like a 4th star for Portland! For now, I'll just settle for 0-for-3 for Harvey.
Welp.
Crystal just posted on her instagram a goodbye to Portland, as her time here is up. No word on where she's headed, but, that's a big loss....
I only hope it's not for another NWSL team, but I doubt she's headed overseas. Still, not a great look for Portland to be losing their high profile players in free agency (regardless of what happened with her husband), and will now just be the next thumb in the eye for Thorns fans. More fodder for the internet to just drag this city down a little more. Frees up some cap space, but we lose her for nothing. Not unexpected, but I'm pretty bummed regardless because she had long been one of my favorite players. Kinda hope she goes to France or something so I don't have to see her elsewhere in this league, but my guess, she's off to Gotham or Angel City.
...but at least Sinc is staying around another year right?! Frees up space in the midfield for her. :(
Looking on the bright side - this forces the FO's hand. They have to do something this offseason and if Becky leaves then all the more so. And we have TAM and cap space to do it with. Standing pat is not an option.
I just don't know what big options exist out there for us. I just reviewed the 2024 free agency list and felt pretty underwhelmed. In Europe? There are some interesting names, but I don;'t know that I see too many I think we could get. Maybe Grosso? Maybe go with a big splash and go for Earps?
https://twitter.com/womenstransfer/status/1722568878079758504?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Also, I see Dydasco and Gorden on the list - I would be happy to get them! In terms of GK, I would wait for the expansion draft to make a move. As Abell4 pointed out elsewhere, there will be plenty of unprotected keepers and we might be able to swing a deal (e.g. you take Hiracik in expansion and we'll swap her for X).
They're both good players, but Dydasco is 30 and Gorden 31. I think we need to go younger.
Where are all the other Girma's when you need one?
The Spain WNT players have been bolting and there seem to be prime pickings there. I am *certain* that KK spent her off-camera time in Australia chatting them up.
spend as much money as possible to get Jaeden Shaw from SD. She is the best midfielder in the US.
I think the plan should be to get a few NWSL FAs for depth, and then go abroad for the splashes.
This also gets to what we were discussing elsewhere in this thread: We’re (most likely) not going to be able to lure top talent already in Europe, so developing a scouting network is crucial. Japan would be the first place I’d start, but I’d also want to be looking to poach young South Americans from subpar leagues. A “splash” signing doesn’t necessarily need to be bringing Lena Oberdorf here, it should be finding inefficiencies in under-appreciated talent. As Aidan said above, Hina should be the model for the type of signings we’re looking at.
Yeah, and like, who would wanna come here from overseas? I'd really love for them to try for Emily Fox. I did see that Grosso's contract is up in 2024...
I'm sure any of those big name players would wanna know who they were gonna be playing for, and Mike Norris isn't really a tantalizing pull for players lol.
Earps isn't coming to NWSL.
Yeah, that was my second thought after "goddamnit" hah. They will have to find at least 2 pretty high-level signings, and many more depth players. Just not sure if I trust KK to get that work done, to be honest...I really can't deal if she spends the Horan money on another Janine Beckie (who was one of the most expensive transactions in the NWSL, at the time.)
Also, how do we draw any big names right now with the state of this club over the last several years? No doubt players overseas have seen the dumpster fire in Portland from their European flats. Add the sale on top of it and potentially a new coach and selling a rebuild of sorts to a European star could be difficult...especially in an Olympic year where they might wanna stay close to home.
I hate to see it, especially since it seemed Smith really looked up to her as a role-model of sorts. But honestly, IMO Dunn wasn't a great fit on the field, and the Thorns best midfield going forward would likely have been Coffey, Hina and Moultrie (and Rodriquez if 4) either way. Also, not for nuthin', but: on a team with a shaky defense that was sorely lacking speed and athleticism, and also missing a fast winger to pair with Weaver, she could have helped the team tremendously moving to LB or F. But she was set on proving herself a playmaking MF on a team that already had a bunch of those. As a result, the Thorns had to endure games where the likes of Nally and others were trying to plug holes on a struggling back line, while the likes of Rodriguez and Hina had to join Moultrie on the bench because of the logjam at MF.
Oh cmon now.
Crystal Dunn’s whole thing is that she’s a *perfect* fit In pretty much every team. She’s a midfielder/attacker and has been her whole career. Implying that she outright refused to play FB or wing is totally unsubstantiated anyhow, but beyond that, she’s a better midfielder than a winger or a FB, and it was in the team’s best interests to play her there. It’s not her job to fix roster gaps. She easily fits into the Thorns best 11, and I’d say Hina is the only midfielder I value more.
It’s a huge loss. It’s OK to acknowledge that. This is a good example of what most of us have been saying for a while now: The Thorns are simply not the best place for free agents to be anymore, and there’s work to be done to change that.
I don't know if present day 2023 Crystal Dunn is a huge loss in all honesty, but I do think there's a perception that's more damaging. It all goes back to the sale needing to be wrapped up ASAP so we can actually move forward as an organization.
I don’t really agree with the notion that Crystal Dunn isn’t a big loss on-field. She’s not necessarily what she was athletically 5 years ago, but I think a lot of the weird fit issues were because of the deeper role she was asked to play and the uncertainty around how Norris wanted the midfield to function. I didn’t really notice a loss of anything individually, and she’s certainly not gonna be an easy player to replace.
But yes: I do agree that the bigger concern is the off-field connotations of her announcing her departure days after the season ended.
Just to be coldly clinical, it is always better to lose a great player before their inevitable decline sets in. And Dunn is in the later stages of her career.
Certainly correct, I just think Crystal has 2-3 good years left.
She’s a massive loss, but I’ve been expecting this day as soon as Pierre got let go. Orlando or a return to Charlotte would seem like a fit. I can’t imagine not wanting to be close to Pierre and Orlando needs midfielders.
Curious to see what’s next, but I’d like to see Moscato hired which may open up the possibility of Deanne Rose.
Moscato has good football connections all over the world as well, and is very well-liked. Wonder how she feels though if her Canadian compatriots are given the boot here. Again, the draw will really depend on WHO will be in the FO. And, we don’t even know if we’re getting a new coach yet….
The only NWSL teams she DOESN’T follow on Instagram (incl expansion teams): San Diego, Thorns, Kansas City, Utah, NC Courage.
That's two straight top-flight players we lose - Horan and Dunn.
i mean we didn't really lose Horan this summer.
She didn't exactly come back, did she?
right we lost her in January 2022
Yes. What I mean is that we've had two top-flight players in a row who didn't want to stay when they had an option to go. Horan was under contract, I know, but her statements about the organization back at the end of 2022 weren't great. And here too, Crystal makes reference to "trust and accountability" in thinking back on her 3 years here.
horan left to 1. be with SO and 2. play in europe
What bugs me about this (beyond just losing a talented player) is what it suggests about the sale - that Dunn wasn't willing to wait here for the new owner(s) to make her an offer makes me wonder if she is dubious ABOUT the new owner(s), or the timing of the sale...or even IF there's a sale.
As far as her role here (re: Stefan's comment below), she's an excellent player. If she wasn't a good fit here (and I agree that she seemed to struggle to find her best role on the pitch) that's just another big questionmark about the series of coaches we've had going back to Parsons (who never seemed to find a way to use her well...)
So while I tend to agree with kielbj that some player signings need to be in the works, the really critical signing is a head coach. This club has bobbled along since 2018 with "good enough, I guess..." in the technical box. It's time for the owner(s) - whoever the hell they are or will be - to reach big.
Yep. The new FO has to show that they’re ready to make a big splash, and that starts with the coach. There’s always a level of uncertainty with any coach hire, but the fact that a number of players --Dunn included-- were unable to lock into a role doesn’t speak well of latter stage Parsons, RW, or Norris. Just find someone who knows how to they want their team to play. I beg!
Re: Dunn....it’s certainly possible her decision was made entirely due to external factors (Pierre, “new challenge,” desire to move back home, etc). But, if those weren’t the primary reasons, it is concerning she announced this days after the Thorns season ended. Seems to indicate that she had her mind made up.
Given that Soph's under contract for just one more year, it's time to make a splash.
Yeah, it's the timing that's disturbing. Not even a head-nod to the possibility that new owners might be a draw to keep her here, just "CYA!"
Admittedly, that might instead be a sign that this is more about off-field issues, and that the decision was made long before last Sunday...
it indicates her desire to leave must be something very strong or impt. like being with her husband so she is not a single mom
We’ll probably never know unless she does an interview or something, but it could be something....or nothing at all. Kinda hoping she goes to Gotham just so it’s a “retire at home” type situation.
Regardless, the next 1.5 months will tell us a lot even before we know who the new owners are. If there are any other significant departures, it’ll bring me a lot closer to panic time. Dreading the random day after thanksgiving Meg Linehan tweet with bad news about Hina or Soph requesting out, however unlikely that is. Dunn staying would have made me more confident, rightly or wrongly.
I do tend to think it had something to do with Pierre. I posted about this back when it happened in August, but Pierre got a job in Tallahassee with the brand new USL W side, Tallahassee Reckoning, who begin their inaugural season in 2024. Outside Seattle, Portland is about as far away as you can get.
https://disruptmagazine.com/pierre-soubrier-to-join-tlh-reckoning-staff-ahead-of-usl-w-expansion/
With this, Orlando would make the most sense....although anyone wanting to live (or play) in FL is baffling. But, she's already shown that she'd move across country to follow her husband. It's what brought her here in the first place...Still though, Tallahassee is a 4 hr drive to Orlando.
Marta is signed for 2024, and they also have Adriana. It would be lovely if KK could use that money to get Adriana here, if they indeed acquire Dunn as another 10. ::)
I don't think it has to do with where Pierre is but I wouldn't be shocked if Pierre's firing (and I think it's pretty clear he couldn't come back here after a year) has some part to do with it, tbh.
Ooh I must have missed your post about that. Given how far Florida is (even NYC is half the flight time from Tallahassee than from the west coast), that probably was a decent indicator.
(Doubt she does go to Orlando, but that would be v cool!)
For goodness sakes her not wanting to be here is most likely overwhelmingly because she is essentially a single mom who travels alot. Got to think getting nearer to her husband has to be objective 1 through 100.
Not great! Hopefully doesn’t portend other big exits as well. Dunn leaving isn’t a total disaster on its own, but I would have felt a whole lot better about how the players felt about the direction of the org if she had re-signed.
New FO has some real work to do. Really can’t afford to cruise into next season with this roster plus a few rookies and low level free agents. I’d say two real, marquee signings are needed.
Yeah, the squad needs a big refresh, and also needs to get a lot younger IMV. I don't know if we need genuine name recognition stars but more Hina type signings.
Was literally going to say the exact same thing about Hina-type signings: well regarded players in their early 20s that have a reasonably high floor. Hope the new owners invest in scouting.
It’s also the model NWSL as a whole need to adopt, because it’s going to be harder and harder to sign big name players in their primes.
they gotta get a wyscout subscription for sure
Not surprising at all.
I think we might be too optimistic about Becky here too.
There are so many unanswered questions going into the offseason, but "run it back" is clearly not an option and yet we still have no idea if/when there will be a new owner.
Stuff we knew/suspected/sensed that turn out to be true--women's sports about to become a fiscal juggernaut.
"Deloitte predicts that in 2024, revenue generated by women’s elite sports will surpass US$1 billion for the first time, with US$1.28 billion in total forecast revenues. This total is projected to be at least 300% higher than when we last wrote our prediction on this topic in 2021. Our forecast is composed of commercial (US$696 million, 55%), broadcast (US$340 million, 27%), and matchday (US$240 million, 18%) revenues.
"A sharp increase in commercial revenue is the major growth driver, followed by income from broadcast and matchday sources. The largest geographical markets are forecast to be North America (US$670 million, 52%) and Europe (US$181 million, 14%) while the two most valuable sports are projected to be football/soccer (US$555 million, 43%) and basketball (US$354 million, 28%).
Global competitions such as the FIFA Women’s World Cup, Ladies Professional Golf Association (LPGA) tour, and Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) tour, are expected to contribute US$425 million (33%) of the forecast total.
"As an indicator of the potential in, and momentum behind, women’s elite sports, Deloitte expects valuations for teams and leagues to continue to rise, with several teams’ values predicted to exceed US$100 million in 2024. The allure for investors could be the opportunity to buy into a growing sector for a modest outlay relative to other elite sports properties. Spending by new and established investors is likely to fund increased professionalization and commercialization across women’s elite sports, which in turn could lead to more spectacular playing performances, increased spectator interest, and thus potentially higher returns on investment. The experience of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup was a testament to the continuing improvement in the technical capability of the players, coaches, and referees. As one example of the increasing prowess of female athletes, in the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, England’s Chloe Kelly’s penalty kick peaked at 111 km/h, a speed higher than every kick speed recorded in the 2022-2023 men’s England Premier League season.
"Surpassing the billion-dollar revenue milestone is expected to be significant, especially given the turbulence of recent years for elite sports. In 2024, women’s elite sports should continue to bask in the multi-faceted success of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup which generated more than US$570 million in revenue.2 Women’s elite sport is developing swiftly in stature, but is also still nascent, with many of the major leagues only established in the last decade, and many territories yet to establish a mainstream culture around women’s elite sports."
In conclusion, screw you, Ron Burkle.
Thoughts about the rumored new ownership:
I would not be surprised to see them turn around and sell the team again in a few years.
They're real estate developers.
They're getting in now when they think an asset is still undervalued and is about ready to take a big leap in value.
They're also using that asset to have access to where the real lucrative opportunities lie. It's just smart.
Say what you will about Merritt, and it's all deserved, but we also have to acknowledge that he loved the Thorns, got into the NWSL for the right reasons, and never wanted to sell the team.
I don't know that we will always be able to say the same things about future owners.
Honestly, that's one of the most frustrating things about the whole mess: MP seemed (and for the most part _behaved_) like a model owner, someone deeply committed to the team and the league they play in. But the feet of clay proved to be clown-shoe-sized and afflicted with a nuclear case of bromodosis.
I've been worried all along that forcing him out could end up being a "careful what you wish for" scenario. I'm not getting that vibe from these prospective new owners (or much of a vibe at all, tbh), but who knows what's coming down the line.
It's so funny you mention this because I just went DOWWWN the rabbithole on upcoming large building projects coming to the city very soon. Your comment on future new buildings at PSU and how City of Portland really has a need/want to revitalize the downtown core had me looking around for info...
So, a few days ago I mentioned that Revitate has some other new investments in Portland...specifically here's Sandy Pine. Revitate has invested in the multifamily building, and it looks like Lever Architecture (Portland and LA-based) is involved in the project. Looking at their projects, Lever Architecture does beautiful work, btw...:
https://revitate.com/investments
https://leverarchitecture.com/innovation/Sandy_Pine_Utilizing_mass_timber_in_high-rise_residential_design
I got a PSU newsletter email a few days ago, and inside (among many other news items) was the announcement of the new Art + Design Center at PSU. Lever architecture is the firm chosen for the project. (set to start building in 2024):
https://www.psuf.org/s/1904/21/page.aspx?sid=1904&gid=2&pgid=1193
https://www.koin.com/news/education/new-portland-state-building-to-unify-the-school-of-art-and-design/
PSU has also recently (last month) entered a proposal to City of Portland/Metro to replace the old Keller Auditorium on campus as part of more revitalizing of the downtown area...if approved, I'm curious if Lever will be also picked for that project as well:
https://www.pdx.edu/news/energy-access-portland-state-proposal-rebuild-replacement-keller-auditorium-leverages-downtown
I listened to this short interview (15 mins) with Alex Bhathal today (it's from last year) about real estate "opportunity zones" (I have no idea still what that means, but...), but the question (starting around 9:45) about what type of markets Revitate is looking for is kind of illuminating...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ay18x4Sm1eo&t=377s
Anyways, whew. Revitate and Lever do seem to have some sort of relationship, given the Sandy Pine development that is/was supposed to start building this fall. And these other huge projects seem to fit their profile. As you mention, purchase of the Thorns, with one (new facilities), possibly two (new stadium) huge real estate deals could be the hook here and, also as you say, I wouldn't be surprised to see them flip the team in a few years, when projects are done (and valuations are way up.) Regardless of if they’re investing in the PSU projects with Lever, they definitely seem interested in the real estate potential of the Thorns, but I'm not sure if they care two shits about the technical side of things (or women's soccer in general....)
Here's what the IRS says about "qualified opportunity zones"...
https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/opportunity-zones-frequently-asked-questions#general
....and here's what all of it means for Portland:
https://opportunitydb.com/cities/portland-oregon/
Hmmm. Still pretty murky for me, but it seems like they’d be looking for real estate deals in those highlighted areas on the map to benefit? Wonder where they’d wanna put a training facility out of the Portland OZ’s shown… 🤔
It would be cool if they built a world-class training facility, and received a tax break for doing so, and contributed to development of good, affordable housing, shopping, etc. around it.
Trying to be positive here...even if they built them a beautiful training facility, and then split, it would still make the soccer side much more valuable because it would draw top players, and keep our stars now. Provided, of course, there's some remediation of our reputation and there's no further scandals...and getting more housing built in the process isn't a bad thing for this city. They do really seem interested in putting these sorts of things in the urban core, though. Is there anywhere that a world class practice facility (+ development) would fit within the city core? I wonder if there is some chunk of land in the NW industrial area, or heading up north along the 30...
There is the Post Office blocks - a big enough chunk of land to build a good-sized stadium and a practice facility and apartments, etc. It's about 6x6 blocks. Much of it is without cross streets, so very developable. The developer who owns has no real specific plans yet. https://www.kgw.com/article/entertainment/television/programs/straight-talk/downtown-portlands-broadway-corridor-future/283-28d1c3a4-4cec-464c-a8b8-962fe82810de
my guess/fear is they come in low ball effort cant get new stadium then declare portland is not a sustainable market without new stadium and then move at that point.
At that point we went from having an owner that loved portland loved his thorns but made a mistake. Instead of showing him grace as a fallible human we whined and screamed and now we have no team.
Here's to hoping some positive news soon.
You cannot seriously be defending Merritt Paulson in November 2023 after MULTIPLE independent reports found him at fault for many many instances of sexual assault and/or abuse.
There’s showing grace for a mistake if someone takes ownership of that mistake. Paulson never did. Everything he did after October 2021 was underhanded and done while he was kicking and screaming. And when there are patterns, as several reports found, you cannot say that someone is “just” making a mistake.
That is incorrect he was not at fault for the actions of a disgusting person. He may have been responsible for not promptly and openly outing his behavior, but he certainly did not participate. What is that they say about hindsight?
He let it happen. He knew about it. He’s at fault!
Paulson didn't know the abuse was happening until after it happened, so I see him at fault for that only to the extent that "he's in charge, so ultimately everything is his responsibility." But Riley was a sly dog and I don't know any owner who would have known.
But Paulson completely knew about the abuse after it happened, the Thorns investigated, and he fired Riley - AND HE DIDN'T ENSURE THAT THE BASTARD NEVER COACHED AGAIN. That to me is his real sin - not protecting the players. In fact Paulson was apparently a Twitter pal of Riley afterwards, which just rubs his nose in the stinking pile.
From the match report (https://rivetingpdx.com/2023/11/08/thorns-fc-like-tears-in-rain/)
"Lots of fans I read 1) love Weaver to death and 2) were pretty pissed that she was overlooked on the league honors list. No Best XI, not even a Second XI.
Here’s the thing; matches like this are why Weaver isn’t a consensus First XI.
Now I love Weaver, too; Happy Warrior Chaos Muppet that she is. But if you don’t see the whole player all you might see the holes in her game. She passes well…until she doesn’t (Sunday? 22 of 38, 58%). She shoots well…until she doesn’t (2 shots on frame, but both right at Haught and we saw the uglier of the two of those earlier…).
Unless you see her a lot you probably haven’t noticed how she’s upgraded her game all season and over the past seasons. She used to “run fast shoot hard and straight”; now she’s got more guile and precision. She used to occasionally help out on defense; now she’s a forechecking beast (6 of 12 duels won, same as Sam Coffey’s 50%) and a persistent presser.
But until she can consistently be all those things, all the time, especially in big matches like this one where neutrals can see that? She’s going to continue to be low-rated by those outsiders and neutrals."
To be fair to her Sunday, she was pretty clearly still feeling the effects of whatever happened to her knee against ACFC. Looked about 70% as explosive as she usually does, though that doesn’t excuse the sitter she missed.
She’s not a perfect player, but she pretty objectively had a better --and, importantly, more consistent-- year than pretty much any forward in the league not named Kerolin or pre-WC Smith. She had more non-penalty goals than Morgan, Williams, and Hatch, more assists than Hatch and Williams, and a better G+ than all three of them.
We can quibble about why she doesn’t have the name recognition, but there’s no legitimate reason why she didn’t at least make the second team.
Legitimate or not, fair or not, she didn't help her cause Sunday, and that's been an issue for the past season, too. The thing about being "not-Kerolin" or Williams or Morgan is that those players will always have a head start purely on name recognition, and the problem with journos either not understanding or willfully disregarding soccer stats like G+. "Oh, sure, she scored more and assisted more...but Morgan! Veteran! Leadership! Baby Horse! Legend!"
That's not "legitimate"...but it's really typical and that was my point; that given the circumstances it wasn't surprising she got overlooked this year.
I think if she and Smith continue the production they had this year she'll be a shoo-in in 2024.
And let me add; I'm dismissive of these yearly awards in general and have been for years. The voters seem clueless at best, and obsessed with name-recognition - the Morgan award you point out is a great example. So it doesn't bug me about Weaver this year - the fact that a major sports publication just had a whole piece on her as "underrated" should help raise her profile for 2024
OT: Watching the Barry Sanders documentary. I see the same kind of balance, footwork, fakes, and refusal to be taken down from our Soph. Hina has some similarities too. =)
Now, I wish Sinc would have retired like Barry too.
Smith makes Forbes 30 Under 30 list.
https://www.forbes.com/30-under-30/2024/sports?profile=sophia-smith
Here's my mock expansion draft w/r/t Thorns:
Protected (9): Smith, Weaver, Coffey, Sugita, Moultrie, Rocky, Reyes, Menges, Hubly
Unprotected: Bixby, Hogan, Kozal, Nally, D'Aquila, Beckie, Betfort
I leave all 3 keepers unprotected because at this point I don't really see a major reason to keep Bix over Hogan and I'm okay with losing my 3rd keeper.
If one of the expansion sides selects Bix or Hogan, then I move the other into my 10th slot.
If an expansion side selects Beckie or Betfort, I am still okay with letting Bix and Hogan remain exposed because at the end of the day I will have one of them. In that case, I use the 10th spot to protect Beckie or Befort (whichever one was not drafted)
I protect Hubly over Betfort and Beckie because the CB situation remains an unknown.
I am okay with losing Beckie, D'Aquila, and Nally.
I personally am not happy about exposing Betfort, but there are clearly 9 players ahead of her that I have to protect if I don't have a roster protection deal in place. If I were one of the expansion teams I'd think long and hard about taking Betfort over Beckie.
I recently had occasion to talk with a couple of women's coaches, and they're very high on Betfort's upside because of her work rate and physical tools, as well as how much she improved and showed flashes this past year.
That said, I think Betfort would be better here than she would be on an expansion team, because she's going to need strong players around her; that's not typically what happens on an expansion team (SD Wave notwithstanding). It's too easy for developing players to get lost on struggling young teams where everybody is fighting for minutes.
Yeh, those are the same 9 I would protect as well.
I'd go slightly different after that, though. Or moreso, I think for slightly differing reasons.
I'd leave all 3 keepers unprotected as well. But, I do so because there will be at least 4 other 2nd keepers also left unprotected from other teams who I think are better than any we can offer. That's not to say that Bix or Hogan wouldn't get take anyway as a 2nd keeper for an expansion side because they may not be super interested in the rest of our roster (slim pickings)...I do still think Bixby or Beckie would be the two most valuable players of ours left unprotected, and could get taken regardless of need. Beckie is coming back from injury, though, so maybe that's risky....
Even if an expansion side took one of the two GK's (likely it'd be Bixby), I wouldn't use the +1 on Hogan because I really don't think she'd be taken so I'd rather use it for a field player. That player would probably be Beckie, for me. She's not really starting quality, but she's the good depth B-level player we are severely lacking. We are also dying for wingers and I think she might be more effective than we've seen so far...so long as I never see her as a defender.
I know you're high on Betfort, but I am still not there yet with her. I very much like her personality (she's hilarious), but I'd be less upset to lose her than I think I remember feeling with Charley at the time...I still think we need a better backup 9. And now we have Betfort and D'Aquila and neither have super impressed me thus far. If she can be converted to a winger? Fine, I actually think she'd be better there.
The rest of your reasoning I agree with, though!
Wild card scenario....Nadine Angerer goes to Bay FC and is interested in taking either Bix or Hogan.
My take on the keepers is you protect Hogan as designated Keeper to Keep, then presume the only way you lose Kozal is to Nadine, who is the sole person in the league with adequate insight on whether she'd be worth the investment cost to bring in.
What good things has KK LeBlanc done as GM here? I'm trying to think of moves and not coming up with much. We drafted Coffey, which is GREAT. Anything else? We drafted Reyes, which is good, but we could have had USWNT-bound Nighswonger.... we got Beckie, who was kinda meh even when she could play.... we got Leon and Sevecke, which are true "WTF?" signings.... We got a bunch of bench-warmers.... anything else of note? What/who have I forgotten?
And I totally disagree with the idea that "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." A better adage for sports teams is, "If you aren't moving forward, you're falling behind." Look at Man City for example. They're active in every transfer window despite winning the league pretty nearly every year. Real Madrid and Barcelona don't sit on their hands either. The Thorns are that level of team in the WoSo world and should act like it.
Maybe a better job for KK would be community relations director or something, since she seems great personally.
Coffey was a Parsons draft pick who ended up spending her 5th year in college because of the covid eligibility thing.
On KK's watch...brought in Vasconcelos (first as an NTRP), Beckie, and drafted Reyes, among other end of bench rookie players. Weird transactions of Leon and Sevecke. And then all of those other weird transactions of NTRP's over the summer that were pointless...
So, really, nothing.
Agree with everything here. You're in the best shape to stay on top if you make little tweaks each season when you have a championship caliber team. It's a lot harder to build that back up again. She's really done nothing and I've been super disappointed. I’m hoping new owners will move her to a different role in the club (wouldn’t mind her staying) and get us a GM who knows what they’re doing. There is the caveat of the sale, but she's been here over two years. She's now had two offseasons before this one...let's hope she's learned something!
Haha! Suck it, eurosnobs!
https://x.com/womenstransfer/status/1724102239994945932?s=20
I kinda think she meant more so that each league game is as competitive as each UWCL game, not that the quality of each NWSL team is that of a Barca (they're absolutely not) but I do think it's hilarious how big mad people are lol. People aren't even ready to admit THAT (which is correct)...
I watched the most recent Liga F Barca game randomly yesterday while I was cleaning my house (on DAZN youtube), and the other team's keeper was just giving away the worst goals, like comically worse than college level. Aitana racked up 2 or 3 that should've been easily dealt with, so did Oshoala. It was just like, not a competition AT ALL. Barca didn't even look amazing either, but it was still like 7 or 8-1. The announcers were hilarious too, because when it was 6-1, they were praising the losing team for "keeping it close" because it was Barca. Fans of that league aren't serious lmao.
Yeah she wasn’t implying that the NWSL is all at the level of Barcelona, but I do think she was saying that quality of the teams means that the competitiveness is higher....not just that the parity makes the league level. She wouldn’t have referenced the champions league if she was just talking about competitiveness vis parity.
Yep. From what I've watched, there are three genuinely competitive leagues in 1st division WoSo. They are, in order of competitiveness: the NWSL, followed pretty closely by the WE League and then, a bit further behind, the FAWSL. I haven't recently seen much from countries like Denmark and Sweden, but Liga F, L1F, and the Frauen-Bundesliga are absolutely a couple stellar teams + tomato cans.
Yes Esther, you tell them. It is what people here have been saying all along. The NWSL is the most competitive league in the world. The best European teams could beat most of the time the top teams in the NWSL, but every European league is pretty top heavy.
Yeah, I mean that's what happens when you have no salary cap. Euro clubs can buy top int'ls from top to bottom and have a roster full of 'em if that's where they wanna spend. They can also pay for the best players in their prime. As long as NWSL has a salary cap, they will never be able to compete with Euro clubs. BUT, there are iterations of some NWSL clubs that could at least compete with their starting XI's. Still, even then it's still a tad lopsided. Comparing full rosters, it's pretty easy to see.
Euro clubs can (and do) have better top teams, but their leagues suffer because of it. NWSL is a more balanced/competitive league because all clubs are capped and talent is much more dispersed throughout the league. It's not a hard concept, but many people don't get that both can be true.... that the top Euro clubs are better than the top of the NWSL, but also that the NWSL is the most competitive league in the world. Would the best NWSL teams win sometimes against those teams? Sure!
we may be more balanced but I also feel there is a subsequent lack of technical and tactical development we dont see with top European clubs. We saw this in last wwc. US tactically and technically was pretty much outrun and outmuscle compared to the quality of team play seen with Sweden, Japan and Spain for example. This starts in youth, watching top level ECNL teams play much of the game is still about athletics over tactics.
Excellent writeup of Sunday's loss over on Rose City Review and the moment we're now in:
https://rosecity.review/the-end-of-an-era-thorns-0-gotham-1/
NWSL playoffs expanding to top 8 in 2024. That's a mistake. I could live with 7, with #1 receiving a first-round bye. But 8 out of 14 is approaching NHL-level of rewarding mediocrity with a chance to get hot and win a championship. Boo-urns!
It’s so gross. This league has enough parity without having over 50% of the league having a chance to win three playoff games and get a title. Idk why we’re trying to turn NWSL into MLS.
I was already there, but this pushes me even more into “shield over championship” territory.
And you hear it from players too. In the most recent Re-Cap, Tobin said winning the shield is much more impressive and that playoff form can be thrown off because of the NWSL playoff schedule.
When more than half a league makes the playoffs, it just reeks of "milking it for profit." What's next? NBA-style glitz-n-glamor halftime "entertainment" complete with shit-tier music? Hey, maybe they could change the rules and/or officiating protocols to allow more scoring! Fans love scoring, right?
So....in light of the Dunn news, a revised state of the roster:
Tier 1: Foundational pieces, keep at all costs- Smith, Weaver, Coffey, Hina
Tier 2: High potential kids who are already good- Moultrie, Reyes.
Tier 3: The vets- Becky, Menges, Rocky, Hubly, Natu, Beckie
Tier 4: Old and staying- Sinc, Kling.
Tier 5: Danish uncertainty- Sevecke
Tier 6: Nice to have here, but ultimately indifferent- Betfort, Izzy, Hogan
Tier 7: Idc if they’re on the roster next year- Nally, Porter, Bixby, Beckman, Provenzano, Vasconcelos, Kozal
Needed:
Coach- Preferably one who’s good at coaching.
Signings: CB, Striker, Winger, Midfielder
Tier 1: Head Coach
I think the issues we've seen are largely because we've been sort of drifting along without real vision in the technical box. We can slag off on KK all we like, but in a better organization it'd be the HC whose vision for the team pointed her at the players wanted for that vision.
That needs to happen first, and done right. Then we'll see who's in what tier in that HC's plans...
Yeah, I do think this should be Job 1, and hope new ownership have already started putting feelers out for who is available/interested. They gotta get someone in before the college draft in January for sure, but ideally before the expansion draft as well.
True, and it doesn't make sense to worry about roster construction unless your GM and HC are on the same page. Witness KC Current...
Indeed
Lol at "Danish uncertainty."
Agree with all of that, and I'd say we could also really use a decent fullback (or two, dep on Kuikka.) Still not sure about Reyes as a starter, so I'd say we should try for a starting quality LB. If Natu sticks around, Kling can be the backup RB (or LB.)
Yeah could definitely use a Westphal type. I loved what I’ve seen out of Reyes though; to the point where I feel pretty confident in her as the LB of the future. She had a few mistakes in her first couple games, but has rarely put a foot wrong since. In a position that’s damn hard to play as a rookie, she’s been super impressive.
Her and Po are on the FA list...but yeah, would be great to have a fullback that's around year-round but is still pretty consistently a great player. I was actually quite bummed when she left because I think she's a great fullback.
But honestly, if we lose Kuikka too, we should have a lot of damn money and cap space and I hope we throw lots of money at Emily Fox, who is also a restricted free agent. Though, with all of NC's lower levels players I'm sure they can afford to pay her quite well. We need some high caliber players on our backline though, and I'd say a US-based player is a better bet than finding an international. She can play both LB and RB pretty well, and she'd be a player to build that backline around who is still young.
I don't think we're going to get Fox. She played at UNC and she wanted the trade there.
Still a wish! She’s a FA, so, you never know…wanting to leave a very bad Louisville team wasn’t too surprising. She won’t be protected/signed until after the draft and thus will probably at least be entertaining offers, even if she has no intention of leaving.
We don't have much of an aerial game, but we also don't get great service into the box. I liked that about Westphal a lot. I'd be happy to have Westphal and Po back here, especially if we're losing Kuikka and Kling is, well, getting older.
Where is Hogan on your list?
Whoops- In the last tier. Might create a tier higher for her, Izzy, and Betfort tbh.
"Nice to have here, but ultimately indifferent" tier for me with those 3 also lol.
Izzy is there as opposed to not caring at all because our coach sucks and maybe a different coach would do better for her (and she was a rookie.)
Her time will come. She deserved it this year, but I do think the end of the season may have tarnished her run a tad. Not sure why Washington had 3, but I respect the game of all on the list
Congrats to Sophia and Sam. Well deserved