Whether it's Moultrie, Hina, or Smith...players are finding a way to find Dunn, and she's finding a way to be open for passes. I think she goes top of the golden boot!
I’d love to see a lockdown defensive game out of the Thorns. Scoreless draw? Not ideal…but I’d take it if it’s because the defense didn’t give SDW a look. Even Chicago, as hapless as they are, got some joy after Sinc came in and the midfield lost a step because people in back were missing marks or ballwatching.
So hopefully we’ll be strong in back, nick an early goal and make it stand up.
I’d take a scoreless draw as well, especially if Kling is out and/or Sinc is out there getting extended minutes.
I really really hope Norris has got it drilled into their heads about paying attention as soon as Sheridan picks up the ball. They have scored lots of goals, this season and last, going route one from Sheridan —-> midfielder (often Kornieck) —-> Alex Morgan —-> goal. They need to be switched on for that play at all times. I’m sure they’ll try to bypass our press with Sheridan going long, esp early game. Stoney does a lot of bunker and then counter football. Defense needs to be awake.
It would be very *rude* of Norris to start Sinc in midfield if Kling is out lol. We can’t afford exposing our defense even more. Moultrie has earned it, she’s had either a goal or an assist in her past 4 games. You don’t slow that down. If it’s tied around 60mins (when his scheduled subs always come in), I hope he considers leaving her out there if she’s not dragging. Bring Sinc on if we’re ahead by at least 2…all of the Wave attackers can punish us late. This will truly need to be a 90 min game.
SDW tends to play direct, and quickly. Our backline has issues when forced out of position and scrambling; disorganization is always a breakout away.
I don’t WANT a scoreless draw - too big an opportunity for SDW to nick a cheap goal - but I’d prefer that to the sort of comedy defending and demoralizing concessions we’ve been seeing…
I would rather play against SDW than a team like OLR any day of the week and twice on Sundays. They'll let Portland be on the front foot which is what they're accustomed to. Unfortunately this team has not done well absorbing waves of attacking football from opposition.
1/6 of their previous matchups have gone to a tie.
But THIS OL Reign without Lavelle, and with Sonnett/Fishlock as a double pivot? I'd take it! Rapinoe has also looked more Sinc-like this season. Could be v fun. ::)
Yep. Would I take 0-0 over 2-2 or 3-3? Absolutely. SD has a good backline and an exceptional keeper. Holding the SD to 0 goals at home would help the argument that things are turning around, even it were a draw. If they put 2 or 3 past us? Even if we score also? Still highlights major issues on defense. Our attack has been far and away a record-breaking attack. The defense needs to do their jobs on the other end. I do tend to think it'll be high-scoring on both ends though because A) our attack is clicking and, B) our defensive breakdowns may persist.
Funny…I had Sheridan pretty much written in permanent ink as “top keeper in the league” for so long I was caught out last season when Haracic, Naeher, and Bixby had better G/xGa (“goals prevented”) stats. Still in the positive numbers, but nowhere her usual +O.5/90.
This season? Same…only fourth behind Orlando’s Moorhouse, Abby Smith, and Katie Lund. Still to the good, but barely 0.12G/90.
Bottom three? Bixby-Naeher-Franch. Even Haracic is below the red line, if barely (-0.04G/90).
I also don't see a scoreless draw happening, but I'm encouraged by Menges' play in the last game. If we can get that (or better) from her it goes a long way in helping the defense. And while I think the world of Kling, I'm okay seeing Reyes in this game for her defense. Kling is really good on offense, but when isolated she struggles. Reyes could really help on the defensive side in this game.
Against teams who hold possession more, Kling is the better fit. Reyes will do well against opposition who plays direct like SD. I have no concern if she were to start today.
My concern is the counter, I do hope the defenders aren't too aggressive coming forward, especially our fullbacks.
Phuoc, would you say Reyes, or Kling, is faster? They both aren't super speedy, but I'm curious who has the edge there...
The counter from SD is def a worry. Fullbacks will need to really be switched on to not get too high up, especially if the other-sided FB is already up high. I hope Norris is a bit more conservative with his approach in this game.
Kling's evaluation of her own speed is best summed up comparing herself to Marta when they were teammates in Sweden: "Marta is faster with the ball than I am just running."
Kling has rebooted herself into a much more effective player after being seemingly in decline, leading into the lost covid year. I'm very impressed and grateful she's still such a valuable player and leader.
Kling has definitely evolved her game and learned to minimize her declining speed with much better anticipation and positioning, for sure. Reyna is definitely learning from a very smart player!
If there was a concern about Reyes having the speed of Klingenberg, she wouldn't have been drafted so high. Kling wins with her smarts and her ability to pass, not with pace.
I'm intrigued to see what everyone considers a lockdown game for a couple of reasons:
1. San Diego, habitually, doesn't put up a lot of chances in games against the Thorns. You can't completely limit a team as good as them, so it's about limiting the quantity and quality.
2. What happens if San Diego scores on a Kornieck header and a 25-yard strike?
I don't think there's a lot you can do about Kornieck in the air. Obviously you try to stop the cross and try to win the first ball but she's just taller. Also if you are aggressive to stop crosses you open up different areas.
I’ll be looking at xG in this one- I think the Thorns allowed one shot on goal and conceded an own goal in the CC game, but there was a lot of “we didn’t have control of the game” in the postgame. I just want to see Coffey get a little more help than she has been.
And we also had a Porter/Rocky/Sinc midfield against SD in the CC: lol.
If we have Coffey/Moultrie/Dunn? And they don't have Kornieck? I do like our chances better. It's the backline I'm concerned about, though. SD ran out a B team and I don't think Morgan even came in at all...maybe a late sub. But it's also true Soph didn't play either. I think this will be a very different game....
Yep, my guess will be a late sub. I hope Norris understands this and avoids bringing on Sinc tonight. Save her for a start Wednesday! Things have gone bad in the late game for us vs. this team (Kornieck specifically) and the defense we'll likely have can't be on their heels for 20-30 mins at the end of a game with Morgan and Kornieck (and their other competent F's) running at them.
A lot of this could come down to game-planning, and I hope Norris is up for it!
Might be a moving target based on the opponent. Red Stars with no shots on goal qualifies as lock down, but also in part self-determined after falling behind 3-0 in an eyeblink so they're already pondering window or aisle seats.
Wave and Thorns have each surrendered 10 goals while Portland has scored 7 more., and 11 more than Chicago has.
I'll say just 1 SD goal is an effective night's defensive job. Clearly then, the offence needs to be firing in order to take the points and run. I liked the offensive variety and four different goal scorers from Sunday. Do that.
Well, first, right up there with not getting into land wars in Asia is “don’t give Korneick free headers”…if you do you better hope you got a couple of golazos in you
But I don’t think it’s complicated; mark up, tackle, stay organized. If SDW scores on a 0.01xG miracle? That’ll suck, but that happens sometimes, it’s a cruel game.
But the Thorns haven’t put in a solid 90 of organized defense that I’ve seen so far this season. If we can do that? I’ll be impressed. If we do that and still lose 1-0 on some freakish accident? I’ll be pissed…but still impressed.
Phuoc, I like how you've been getting these local media people for the opponents each week. Really adds perspectives to the preview and I learn about a new podcast/paper/blog to maybe follow for other NWSL coverage!
I have made it a huge goal of mine for Stumptown Footy to get you all the coverage you deserve.
It's also important as I am not an expert on any other team besides Portland. I may know about all the other teams, but not like someone who covers them on a daily basis.
I'll be sure to keep this going :) Thanks for supporting the wonderful people we collab with!
It's a great addition and much appreciated! Field Gulls has done something like it with upcoming Seahawks opponents and they're always insightful, because the other writers are usually brutally honest about their club. "Enemy Reactions" is also a hoot, but has to be lots of work to prepare.
I know Sam does it for Timbers matches quite often, so thought I'd do it for my coverage too. I actually follow Detroit's SB Nation blog closely and they do it too. I love the brutal honesty lol
Definitely a different style for sure, as I think everyone knows what Portland needs to do on a weekly basis to win. However, hearing the other point of view is more important and newer. I think it keeps the previews more fun and more insightful.
Not feeling *great* about this game- SD’s struggles were heavily linked to missing Morgan and Kornieck, and they’ve looked much better -- if still a little muted -- in attack. Sounds like there’s a good chance we won’t see Kling, and with Becky already out and Norris’ penchant for overcommitting the midfield/FBs, I wouldn’t bet on this being the game the Thorns look more structured. I’d expect Shaw to find a lot of space. Girma has also been the Smith-stopper so far...so pls score Soph.
That said, I want to preempt the inevitable Reyes criticisms/Hocking regret that will come *if* she struggles tonight: She’s a rookie defender- She’s going to look a little overwhelmed at times, she’s going to play aggressively and make some mistakes....and that’s fine. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from her so far, but she’s going to take a decent amount of polishing- It’s reallly hard to find good NWSL FBs (look at the national team pool!), and I think she has the traits of a really good one.
It's a weird feeling about this game. Any scoreline would not surprise me. Yeah they were terrible without those two. I am thinking Portland will have a ton of possession tonight.
It's not in this team's nature to play more reserved, so it'll be interesting if they can hold back just a bit so the defense isn't caught on counters.
I understand the Reyes and Hocking debate will always continue. However, I don't think Hocking would be playing much more than her or Izzy right now. She has all the tools and has learned and gotten better after each game. That's what you want to see and it's happening.
Agreed re: Reyes/Hocking. Hocking has been impressive in a horrible Chicago team, but is she ever gonna be as good or better than the Weaver/Purce tier of just sub -national team attackers? If not, she’s simply not someone worth getting fomo over, especially since we drafted Izzy.
Hocking is USC's scoring record holder with 54, plus 22 assists (the previous record was 48 and lasted 21 years) then polished her resume with a fifth year at Penn State, with 7 goals and 11 assists.
What numbers don't reveal is her competitiveness, which is set to 11. I'll be surprised if she doesn't get called up to the Nats eventually. Hopefully the NWSL can keep her stateside.
She’s great, but there are A LOT of really, really successful four year college players that turn into B-level NWSL players because the level is just higher. Especially in this era of NWSL, the non-elite tier attackers aren’t just aren’t that scarce.
Hell, Izzy had 50 goals and 16 assists in college and I don’t think she’ll ever be in the national team pool. Same with Kelsey Turnbow, who had 56 goals and 38 assists.
That’s not to say that these players aren’t valuable because they very much are.... it’s just that there’s a lot of them.
Have to frame player stats in light of their conference competition, e.g., comparing USC and Santa Clara, Pac 12 is a lot tougher than WCC, which ironically makes Santa Clara's continual success all the more impressive. Both programs schools won College Cups in the recent era, but between the two it's Izzy who has a championship, plus a runner-up, while Penelope made it just to the quarterfinals with USC and round of 16 with Penn State. Brutal tourny, the College Cup. SC won the Cup the year before she started.
As Penelope once played second threat behind Savannah DeMelo and Tara McKeown, Izzy played behind Turnbow all but her final year. Those were incredible teams.
In sum, I'll generally go with players having this pedigree versus this or that 18YO phenom, and also agree it's not necessarily predictive of pro success. US colleges crank out hundreds of elite players every year and a fraction succeed as pros.
Fair enough re: competetion, but I think the general point (mostly) stands: Big college numbers aren't all that predictive of real NWSL success.
I also do disagree fundamentally about mapping college pedigree vs. "phenom" status into the pros, especially as Woso continues to grow in terms of scouting and overall investment. I feel veryyy confident saying that there is going to be more Alyssa Thompsons, Olivia Moultries, and Jaedyn Shaws than 4-year college stars among the NWSL's best players in the coming years. The best young players aren't going to go to college now that Woso offers financially viable alternatives, both domestically and abroad. There's a reason why ACFC sold the farm to get Thompson, but not Cooper or Hocking: Teams know how to identify the prodigies and do so successfully at a pretty high rate. I have to imagine Soph -- who already left Stanford early -- would have considered skipping college entirely if she was 5 years younger.
Yeah, I don't really either. Winning 4-0 over the wooden spoon doesn't really address the lingering defensive issues we've had. Some we can't control, like players out injured. But, some have been entirely structural, as you've noted. Midfield with Sinc: porous. This just has carry over effects to the defense. CB's are directly exposed to a ton of 1v1s (or 2v1s) because FB's have been pressed so high on both sides. We've been killed in transition with all of these things happening at once. I can't count how many times I've seen Menges megged since she's been in (she's got skinny little legs so it's prob easier, honestly.) And, then opponents are in on goal. Then Bella, she's a question mark also.
They didn't really have to confront these issues last game, so, I kinda worry they'll persist tonight. Having Kling out is a bit concerning as well, despite her up and down form...I do think there'll be goals on both sides, because our attack as been doing the work, but I think we'll also concede from defensive breakdowns or individual mistakes. I think personnel for both teams could be a factor. Do we see Kornieck for only 20 mins as a sub? She came in the 87th minute last game. I could foresee a situation where Norris has made a sub for Moultrie too early to bring on Sinc, and then Kornieck is brought on at the same time and then a late Thorns destruction ensues...If Dunn or Moultrie needs to come out, move Hina to midfield and bring on D'Aquila at RW. Her height would be an advantage in this game particularly. Unless the scoreline is lopsided, I think Sinc should sit this one out.
I'd be happy to leave with a draw though. 2-2 or 3-3.
I’d like to see Izzy get her minutes at the 9, but I don’t like shifting Smith out wide- Soph’s whole deal is that she roams across the whole field and finds pockets where the defense can’t just follow her around and man mark her out of the game. Honestly, I think playing on the RW is one of the reasons she’s not as effective for the nats: She wants all the space she can get and limiting her to one side takes that away.
I also haven’t seen enough from Izzy that would justify her getting Hina’s minutes.
I don't disagree. Sophia is better out wide than Izzy though. I was hoping to see it this way if they were on the same pitch together. However, going to a 2 forward front would make more sense and drop Hina back into midfield. Izzy winning headers playing it up to Sophia will be dangerous. Just another wrinkle I'd like to see.
In a perf...better-than-average world the Thorns land at that miserable SD airport feeling loose and happy like Sunday, then go forth, TCOB and hand the Wave a 1-2 defeat, giving them a 3-point happy flight back to PDX.
Tegan McGrady is finally off the injury report completely after being listed as out all season. I’m sure her minutes will still be sparse, but it’s great that’s she’s on her way back.
Bad news…Kling is listed as “questionable (thigh).” I remember her going down late last game and grabbing at her hamstring, so, pretty on edge about that. We’re so light in the back already…Reyes (or Nally) on the left side with Menges sounds…very questionable, very nervy against some scary attackers. Kornieck is off the IR as well. I hope those goals our defenders scored can manifest into some confidence and some great defending, because Chicago was not a valid test of strength. Our backline falling apart is the last thing we want in this stretch…everyone light some candles for Kling. She’s had some rough games, but this game isn’t the one we wanna go second or third-string for…
Tegan coming back is perfect timing for challenge cup too. San Diego isn’t a team that makes possession a big part of their identity. If Kling misses this game it’s a huge loss but not compared to a team OL who could take advantage more. If Reyna is asked to start, I hope Mike Norris has her play back a bit more and not too far up. I’d like them to go to Natu more often to venture forward.
Excited for the game tmrw, it will tell a lot of where this team is.
Agreed that Natu is the fullback to be pressing into the attack in the absence of Kling. She's an excellent contributor to the attack, and her pressing forward supports the growing understanding between Crystal and Hina.
Agreed, our right side has been brutal! It also means their left side (generally Alex Morgan’s side) will be pinned back. Alex Morgan playing defense is what you like to see, and I think what happened in the Spirit game (where they were thoroughly outplayed) if I remember correctly. This game will be won or lost in the midfield. Norris….be smart!
Did Reyna play that side in college? Don't know that I trust her to sub for Kling, because of all the uniquely Kling things she brings to the field, but a rusty Teagan versus an inexperienced first-round rookie? This is fundamental to why I shall never coach.
Yeah she played LB and midfield in college. She has also played times at RB. As a naturally right footed player, she is very comfortable on both sides.
McGrady has been good in practice, but don't think she's ready for many minutes quite yet.
I have no concerns about Reyes in a game that features a direct SD team.
I don't mind her playing RB during CC games when McGrady is fully fit. However, I know this is will sound weird, but wouldn't mind seeing Reyna play some midfield during the break or cup games.
Yes, agreed she should be the starter at LB if Kling can't go.
Can she play an 8, or has she played mostly defensive mid/6? Could be fun to have her in the 8 with Coffey and Moultrie, if she could do it, but I really think she'd need to clean up her passing before taking any midfield role. CC though? Sure, why not try it?
I’d be curious to see her play there eventually....but I’m not sure her passing or field awareness is at the requisite level to play a pro midfield position just yet.
Also I think stability is really important for a rookie. I kinda want her to just learn a role and get good at it.
Yeah, I do remember that specific game where Kling just had Jakobsson in her pocket all game long! I think she's been playing more on the left side of the attack lately, so Natu would be tasked with keeping her quiet probably. Natu has done really well against her before though. She was one of the few players who came out looking solid in the semi against SD, and she was shutting down Jakobsson left and right! More of that, Natuuuu
Kling's been fine in the last few games, but not outstanding. And we already had some nervy minutes defensively down that side.
I noticed that Abby Dahlkemper has been moved to a SEI (back) listing. Don't know when that switch happened, but she's been dealing with that for almost a year now. Glad the club is taking that slow and hope she can eventually return. Persistent back injuries are scary. As Thorns fans, we've seen Kling and Heath go through long back issues. At one point, I thought it was going to be the end of Kling's career.
Elton Garcia, the man who ref’d our home game against Angel City, is our ref tonight.
I don’t think Sophia will have any relief. The man missed multiple Ertz yellows, including one that led to a goal for them, and play was generally very rough.
SD rebounded from a pair of losses, and looked lost in both those defeat, with a couple of wins. Thorns deep sixed the worst team in the league. I don’t know that either team has fixed what’s ails them. This game is a good measuring stick for both teams. Thorns will need to get on the front foot, score first, and remind those SoCal people the Northwest rules. And maybe tie Kornieks boot laces together when she sets up in the box. Thorns win the midfield and take 3. 2-1 sounds right.
2-1 was my initial prediction, but opted for the draw. This is definitely a measuring stick game for both teams. Thorns definitely a front-foot team and luckily SD does not really play that way. Portland should have the bulk of possession and hopefully can contain the direct and counter attack from the Wave.
Do you reckon Soph is sufficiently frustrated with the scoring drought she goes in with that extra bit of motivation? We'd love to see the dam break and her finding the net again, something to counter Alex Morgan's Left Foot.
I’m sure she’s been frustrated during the drought and would love to find the back of the net. I hope she does, too; hopefully without a lot of fruitless attempts to break through one on three situations. I’ve consoled myself during the drought with her total offensive production--goals plus assists--being far greater than anyone else in the league. Plus, her assists provide others the opportunity to score and make the offense even more dangerous. Ultimately I hope this might even lighten the defensive pressure on Sophia a bit as defenses need to spread out and cover more threats.
I expect Soph to be very focused on ending her drought...but I also expect her maturation as a player to continue, and if/when SD warms her on every attack, she'll find open teammates. There _should_ be opportunities for goals, either way.
The key to having these opportunities will be in the midfield. We'll get an early clue about that when the starting 11 is rolled out. I'm sure I needn't elaborate...
Honestly, I feel like we're already seeing the effects of Soph's scoring drought in the form of her going full tunnel-vision again. She wants to score so bad, that she will often try to dribble through multiple players, or will overlook a better pass to take a low percentage shot. She needs to play more free and not care about not scoring. She has extremely competent players around her and needs to feel ok if others are scoring instead. That's when the goals will come. Right now I feel like she's trying too hard. She is still contributing greatly to this team's success.
We're scoring more by committee right now, and it makes us more dangerous. I think we just need to get Soph more comfortable with not being the only goalscorer. Look at Kevin DeBruyne's goals/assists last year vs. this year. It's kinda nuts how the addition of Haaland has really changed his role....although, he's still arguably the most valuable player on the field, if not the planet. Last year, pre-Haaland: 19G/14A, and this year with Haaland: 10G/28A. Half the goals, double the assists. Soph just has to find her role with a more attacking/high-pressing midfield than last season. Weaver, same.
Tobin Heath went the other direction between 2016 and 2018; in ‘16 she was the queen of assists, creating and distributing. When the forwards couldn’t score two seasons later she stepped up and converted. Great players have that versatility; we’ll see where Smith falls on that scale…
Who is going to score a goal tonight?
Soph! And how about another from the Chaos Muppet--Weaver deserves one for all the work she's been putting in.
Whether it's Moultrie, Hina, or Smith...players are finding a way to find Dunn, and she's finding a way to be open for passes. I think she goes top of the golden boot!
I’d love to see a lockdown defensive game out of the Thorns. Scoreless draw? Not ideal…but I’d take it if it’s because the defense didn’t give SDW a look. Even Chicago, as hapless as they are, got some joy after Sinc came in and the midfield lost a step because people in back were missing marks or ballwatching.
So hopefully we’ll be strong in back, nick an early goal and make it stand up.
I’d take a scoreless draw as well, especially if Kling is out and/or Sinc is out there getting extended minutes.
I really really hope Norris has got it drilled into their heads about paying attention as soon as Sheridan picks up the ball. They have scored lots of goals, this season and last, going route one from Sheridan —-> midfielder (often Kornieck) —-> Alex Morgan —-> goal. They need to be switched on for that play at all times. I’m sure they’ll try to bypass our press with Sheridan going long, esp early game. Stoney does a lot of bunker and then counter football. Defense needs to be awake.
Yeah I’d guess the SD game plan will be bypassing Moultrie/Sinc-Dunn section of the midfield and isolating Coffey against Shaw and Kornieck.
Could be a another rough one for Sam, especially if Sinc starts.
It would be very *rude* of Norris to start Sinc in midfield if Kling is out lol. We can’t afford exposing our defense even more. Moultrie has earned it, she’s had either a goal or an assist in her past 4 games. You don’t slow that down. If it’s tied around 60mins (when his scheduled subs always come in), I hope he considers leaving her out there if she’s not dragging. Bring Sinc on if we’re ahead by at least 2…all of the Wave attackers can punish us late. This will truly need to be a 90 min game.
SDW tends to play direct, and quickly. Our backline has issues when forced out of position and scrambling; disorganization is always a breakout away.
I don’t WANT a scoreless draw - too big an opportunity for SDW to nick a cheap goal - but I’d prefer that to the sort of comedy defending and demoralizing concessions we’ve been seeing…
I would rather play against SDW than a team like OLR any day of the week and twice on Sundays. They'll let Portland be on the front foot which is what they're accustomed to. Unfortunately this team has not done well absorbing waves of attacking football from opposition.
1/6 of their previous matchups have gone to a tie.
I think either SDW win 2-0 or Portland wins by 1.
But THIS OL Reign without Lavelle, and with Sonnett/Fishlock as a double pivot? I'd take it! Rapinoe has also looked more Sinc-like this season. Could be v fun. ::)
Depends on who can score first, I think, and whether Portland can jump on SDW early. If they can I think they can win. If not, I’ll be worried.
Yep. Would I take 0-0 over 2-2 or 3-3? Absolutely. SD has a good backline and an exceptional keeper. Holding the SD to 0 goals at home would help the argument that things are turning around, even it were a draw. If they put 2 or 3 past us? Even if we score also? Still highlights major issues on defense. Our attack has been far and away a record-breaking attack. The defense needs to do their jobs on the other end. I do tend to think it'll be high-scoring on both ends though because A) our attack is clicking and, B) our defensive breakdowns may persist.
Funny…I had Sheridan pretty much written in permanent ink as “top keeper in the league” for so long I was caught out last season when Haracic, Naeher, and Bixby had better G/xGa (“goals prevented”) stats. Still in the positive numbers, but nowhere her usual +O.5/90.
This season? Same…only fourth behind Orlando’s Moorhouse, Abby Smith, and Katie Lund. Still to the good, but barely 0.12G/90.
Bottom three? Bixby-Naeher-Franch. Even Haracic is below the red line, if barely (-0.04G/90).
Tough year for normally solid keepers.
I see Kling's "questionable" and wonder if she traveled with the team?
Turnbow is out, which could be a bigger deal than it seems at first glance.
I also don't see a scoreless draw happening, but I'm encouraged by Menges' play in the last game. If we can get that (or better) from her it goes a long way in helping the defense. And while I think the world of Kling, I'm okay seeing Reyes in this game for her defense. Kling is really good on offense, but when isolated she struggles. Reyes could really help on the defensive side in this game.
Against teams who hold possession more, Kling is the better fit. Reyes will do well against opposition who plays direct like SD. I have no concern if she were to start today.
My concern is the counter, I do hope the defenders aren't too aggressive coming forward, especially our fullbacks.
Phuoc, would you say Reyes, or Kling, is faster? They both aren't super speedy, but I'm curious who has the edge there...
The counter from SD is def a worry. Fullbacks will need to really be switched on to not get too high up, especially if the other-sided FB is already up high. I hope Norris is a bit more conservative with his approach in this game.
Definitely Reyna. Nothing against Kling at all, as she makes up for it in so many other ways. However, WWC winning Kling was deceptively fast.
Yes, it's okay to let the frontline and Dunn create on their own in this game.
If we have everyone else back a bit more, I don't see how SDW can break down the team enough to score. They rely on very direct approach.
Kling's evaluation of her own speed is best summed up comparing herself to Marta when they were teammates in Sweden: "Marta is faster with the ball than I am just running."
Kling has rebooted herself into a much more effective player after being seemingly in decline, leading into the lost covid year. I'm very impressed and grateful she's still such a valuable player and leader.
What a quote!
Yes her reinventing the game has been amazing to see. Honestly last year played some of her best soccers since WWC years.
Kling has definitely evolved her game and learned to minimize her declining speed with much better anticipation and positioning, for sure. Reyna is definitely learning from a very smart player!
Kuikka has been getting caught upfield quite a bit lately.
If there was a concern about Reyes having the speed of Klingenberg, she wouldn't have been drafted so high. Kling wins with her smarts and her ability to pass, not with pace.
I'm intrigued to see what everyone considers a lockdown game for a couple of reasons:
1. San Diego, habitually, doesn't put up a lot of chances in games against the Thorns. You can't completely limit a team as good as them, so it's about limiting the quantity and quality.
2. What happens if San Diego scores on a Kornieck header and a 25-yard strike?
I don't think there's a lot you can do about Kornieck in the air. Obviously you try to stop the cross and try to win the first ball but she's just taller. Also if you are aggressive to stop crosses you open up different areas.
Everything about this.
I’ll be looking at xG in this one- I think the Thorns allowed one shot on goal and conceded an own goal in the CC game, but there was a lot of “we didn’t have control of the game” in the postgame. I just want to see Coffey get a little more help than she has been.
And we also had a Porter/Rocky/Sinc midfield against SD in the CC: lol.
If we have Coffey/Moultrie/Dunn? And they don't have Kornieck? I do like our chances better. It's the backline I'm concerned about, though. SD ran out a B team and I don't think Morgan even came in at all...maybe a late sub. But it's also true Soph didn't play either. I think this will be a very different game....
Kornieck played a few minutes against Houston, so I'd expect her for 30-ish tonight.
Yep, my guess will be a late sub. I hope Norris understands this and avoids bringing on Sinc tonight. Save her for a start Wednesday! Things have gone bad in the late game for us vs. this team (Kornieck specifically) and the defense we'll likely have can't be on their heels for 20-30 mins at the end of a game with Morgan and Kornieck (and their other competent F's) running at them.
A lot of this could come down to game-planning, and I hope Norris is up for it!
Might be a moving target based on the opponent. Red Stars with no shots on goal qualifies as lock down, but also in part self-determined after falling behind 3-0 in an eyeblink so they're already pondering window or aisle seats.
Wave and Thorns have each surrendered 10 goals while Portland has scored 7 more., and 11 more than Chicago has.
I'll say just 1 SD goal is an effective night's defensive job. Clearly then, the offence needs to be firing in order to take the points and run. I liked the offensive variety and four different goal scorers from Sunday. Do that.
You mean like the 8th minute in the 2022 semi?
Well, first, right up there with not getting into land wars in Asia is “don’t give Korneick free headers”…if you do you better hope you got a couple of golazos in you
But I don’t think it’s complicated; mark up, tackle, stay organized. If SDW scores on a 0.01xG miracle? That’ll suck, but that happens sometimes, it’s a cruel game.
But the Thorns haven’t put in a solid 90 of organized defense that I’ve seen so far this season. If we can do that? I’ll be impressed. If we do that and still lose 1-0 on some freakish accident? I’ll be pissed…but still impressed.
Phuoc, I like how you've been getting these local media people for the opponents each week. Really adds perspectives to the preview and I learn about a new podcast/paper/blog to maybe follow for other NWSL coverage!
Thank you so much!
I have made it a huge goal of mine for Stumptown Footy to get you all the coverage you deserve.
It's also important as I am not an expert on any other team besides Portland. I may know about all the other teams, but not like someone who covers them on a daily basis.
I'll be sure to keep this going :) Thanks for supporting the wonderful people we collab with!
It's a great addition and much appreciated! Field Gulls has done something like it with upcoming Seahawks opponents and they're always insightful, because the other writers are usually brutally honest about their club. "Enemy Reactions" is also a hoot, but has to be lots of work to prepare.
I know Sam does it for Timbers matches quite often, so thought I'd do it for my coverage too. I actually follow Detroit's SB Nation blog closely and they do it too. I love the brutal honesty lol
I really appreciate this too! It’s fun to have the opponent’s perspective going into match day.
Definitely a different style for sure, as I think everyone knows what Portland needs to do on a weekly basis to win. However, hearing the other point of view is more important and newer. I think it keeps the previews more fun and more insightful.
Thanks so much for the support :)
Not feeling *great* about this game- SD’s struggles were heavily linked to missing Morgan and Kornieck, and they’ve looked much better -- if still a little muted -- in attack. Sounds like there’s a good chance we won’t see Kling, and with Becky already out and Norris’ penchant for overcommitting the midfield/FBs, I wouldn’t bet on this being the game the Thorns look more structured. I’d expect Shaw to find a lot of space. Girma has also been the Smith-stopper so far...so pls score Soph.
That said, I want to preempt the inevitable Reyes criticisms/Hocking regret that will come *if* she struggles tonight: She’s a rookie defender- She’s going to look a little overwhelmed at times, she’s going to play aggressively and make some mistakes....and that’s fine. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from her so far, but she’s going to take a decent amount of polishing- It’s reallly hard to find good NWSL FBs (look at the national team pool!), and I think she has the traits of a really good one.
It's a weird feeling about this game. Any scoreline would not surprise me. Yeah they were terrible without those two. I am thinking Portland will have a ton of possession tonight.
It's not in this team's nature to play more reserved, so it'll be interesting if they can hold back just a bit so the defense isn't caught on counters.
I understand the Reyes and Hocking debate will always continue. However, I don't think Hocking would be playing much more than her or Izzy right now. She has all the tools and has learned and gotten better after each game. That's what you want to see and it's happening.
Agreed re: Reyes/Hocking. Hocking has been impressive in a horrible Chicago team, but is she ever gonna be as good or better than the Weaver/Purce tier of just sub -national team attackers? If not, she’s simply not someone worth getting fomo over, especially since we drafted Izzy.
Hocking is USC's scoring record holder with 54, plus 22 assists (the previous record was 48 and lasted 21 years) then polished her resume with a fifth year at Penn State, with 7 goals and 11 assists.
What numbers don't reveal is her competitiveness, which is set to 11. I'll be surprised if she doesn't get called up to the Nats eventually. Hopefully the NWSL can keep her stateside.
She's got quick feet and a quick trigger, and her dribbling has been really good. She's also really quick with and without the ball.
She’s great, but there are A LOT of really, really successful four year college players that turn into B-level NWSL players because the level is just higher. Especially in this era of NWSL, the non-elite tier attackers aren’t just aren’t that scarce.
Hell, Izzy had 50 goals and 16 assists in college and I don’t think she’ll ever be in the national team pool. Same with Kelsey Turnbow, who had 56 goals and 38 assists.
That’s not to say that these players aren’t valuable because they very much are.... it’s just that there’s a lot of them.
Have to frame player stats in light of their conference competition, e.g., comparing USC and Santa Clara, Pac 12 is a lot tougher than WCC, which ironically makes Santa Clara's continual success all the more impressive. Both programs schools won College Cups in the recent era, but between the two it's Izzy who has a championship, plus a runner-up, while Penelope made it just to the quarterfinals with USC and round of 16 with Penn State. Brutal tourny, the College Cup. SC won the Cup the year before she started.
As Penelope once played second threat behind Savannah DeMelo and Tara McKeown, Izzy played behind Turnbow all but her final year. Those were incredible teams.
In sum, I'll generally go with players having this pedigree versus this or that 18YO phenom, and also agree it's not necessarily predictive of pro success. US colleges crank out hundreds of elite players every year and a fraction succeed as pros.
Fair enough re: competetion, but I think the general point (mostly) stands: Big college numbers aren't all that predictive of real NWSL success.
I also do disagree fundamentally about mapping college pedigree vs. "phenom" status into the pros, especially as Woso continues to grow in terms of scouting and overall investment. I feel veryyy confident saying that there is going to be more Alyssa Thompsons, Olivia Moultries, and Jaedyn Shaws than 4-year college stars among the NWSL's best players in the coming years. The best young players aren't going to go to college now that Woso offers financially viable alternatives, both domestically and abroad. There's a reason why ACFC sold the farm to get Thompson, but not Cooper or Hocking: Teams know how to identify the prodigies and do so successfully at a pretty high rate. I have to imagine Soph -- who already left Stanford early -- would have considered skipping college entirely if she was 5 years younger.
Yeah, I don't really either. Winning 4-0 over the wooden spoon doesn't really address the lingering defensive issues we've had. Some we can't control, like players out injured. But, some have been entirely structural, as you've noted. Midfield with Sinc: porous. This just has carry over effects to the defense. CB's are directly exposed to a ton of 1v1s (or 2v1s) because FB's have been pressed so high on both sides. We've been killed in transition with all of these things happening at once. I can't count how many times I've seen Menges megged since she's been in (she's got skinny little legs so it's prob easier, honestly.) And, then opponents are in on goal. Then Bella, she's a question mark also.
They didn't really have to confront these issues last game, so, I kinda worry they'll persist tonight. Having Kling out is a bit concerning as well, despite her up and down form...I do think there'll be goals on both sides, because our attack as been doing the work, but I think we'll also concede from defensive breakdowns or individual mistakes. I think personnel for both teams could be a factor. Do we see Kornieck for only 20 mins as a sub? She came in the 87th minute last game. I could foresee a situation where Norris has made a sub for Moultrie too early to bring on Sinc, and then Kornieck is brought on at the same time and then a late Thorns destruction ensues...If Dunn or Moultrie needs to come out, move Hina to midfield and bring on D'Aquila at RW. Her height would be an advantage in this game particularly. Unless the scoreline is lopsided, I think Sinc should sit this one out.
I'd be happy to leave with a draw though. 2-2 or 3-3.
I don't know why he doesn't move Sophia to RW and Izzy to the 9. They could also just do a 2 forward look too, but hasn't really happened.
I’d like to see Izzy get her minutes at the 9, but I don’t like shifting Smith out wide- Soph’s whole deal is that she roams across the whole field and finds pockets where the defense can’t just follow her around and man mark her out of the game. Honestly, I think playing on the RW is one of the reasons she’s not as effective for the nats: She wants all the space she can get and limiting her to one side takes that away.
I also haven’t seen enough from Izzy that would justify her getting Hina’s minutes.
I don't disagree. Sophia is better out wide than Izzy though. I was hoping to see it this way if they were on the same pitch together. However, going to a 2 forward front would make more sense and drop Hina back into midfield. Izzy winning headers playing it up to Sophia will be dangerous. Just another wrinkle I'd like to see.
Yeah I think that’s a pretty good idea and I wouldn’t hate testing out a diamond with tall/smol forward combo.
Maybe have Hina and Dunn as the shuttlers with Moultrie in the 10? Would add some stability no doubt.
I personally have benefitted from a tall/smol combo lol, so I wouldn't hate to see this tried!
In a perf...better-than-average world the Thorns land at that miserable SD airport feeling loose and happy like Sunday, then go forth, TCOB and hand the Wave a 1-2 defeat, giving them a 3-point happy flight back to PDX.
That would be lovely.
Good news and bad news…
Tegan McGrady is finally off the injury report completely after being listed as out all season. I’m sure her minutes will still be sparse, but it’s great that’s she’s on her way back.
Bad news…Kling is listed as “questionable (thigh).” I remember her going down late last game and grabbing at her hamstring, so, pretty on edge about that. We’re so light in the back already…Reyes (or Nally) on the left side with Menges sounds…very questionable, very nervy against some scary attackers. Kornieck is off the IR as well. I hope those goals our defenders scored can manifest into some confidence and some great defending, because Chicago was not a valid test of strength. Our backline falling apart is the last thing we want in this stretch…everyone light some candles for Kling. She’s had some rough games, but this game isn’t the one we wanna go second or third-string for…
Tegan coming back is perfect timing for challenge cup too. San Diego isn’t a team that makes possession a big part of their identity. If Kling misses this game it’s a huge loss but not compared to a team OL who could take advantage more. If Reyna is asked to start, I hope Mike Norris has her play back a bit more and not too far up. I’d like them to go to Natu more often to venture forward.
Excited for the game tmrw, it will tell a lot of where this team is.
Agreed that Natu is the fullback to be pressing into the attack in the absence of Kling. She's an excellent contributor to the attack, and her pressing forward supports the growing understanding between Crystal and Hina.
Facts!
Agreed, our right side has been brutal! It also means their left side (generally Alex Morgan’s side) will be pinned back. Alex Morgan playing defense is what you like to see, and I think what happened in the Spirit game (where they were thoroughly outplayed) if I remember correctly. This game will be won or lost in the midfield. Norris….be smart!
Did Reyna play that side in college? Don't know that I trust her to sub for Kling, because of all the uniquely Kling things she brings to the field, but a rusty Teagan versus an inexperienced first-round rookie? This is fundamental to why I shall never coach.
Yeah she played LB and midfield in college. She has also played times at RB. As a naturally right footed player, she is very comfortable on both sides.
McGrady has been good in practice, but don't think she's ready for many minutes quite yet.
I have no concerns about Reyes in a game that features a direct SD team.
It will and should be Reyes.
Also, I really hope they stop playing her at RB, even with McGrady back. Let the rookie play her natural position as she gets adjusted to the league.
I don't mind her playing RB during CC games when McGrady is fully fit. However, I know this is will sound weird, but wouldn't mind seeing Reyna play some midfield during the break or cup games.
Yes, agreed she should be the starter at LB if Kling can't go.
Can she play an 8, or has she played mostly defensive mid/6? Could be fun to have her in the 8 with Coffey and Moultrie, if she could do it, but I really think she'd need to clean up her passing before taking any midfield role. CC though? Sure, why not try it?
I’d be curious to see her play there eventually....but I’m not sure her passing or field awareness is at the requisite level to play a pro midfield position just yet.
Also I think stability is really important for a rookie. I kinda want her to just learn a role and get good at it.
Uggg, I really like how Kling has handled Jakobsson in the past!
Natu too
Yeah, I do remember that specific game where Kling just had Jakobsson in her pocket all game long! I think she's been playing more on the left side of the attack lately, so Natu would be tasked with keeping her quiet probably. Natu has done really well against her before though. She was one of the few players who came out looking solid in the semi against SD, and she was shutting down Jakobsson left and right! More of that, Natuuuu
Yes, good. Thank you for keeping my hopes and dreams alive.
Here for the realistic, sometimes pessimistic takes, peppered in with some occasional optimism lol.
This sport can beat the optimism right out of you!
Kling's been fine in the last few games, but not outstanding. And we already had some nervy minutes defensively down that side.
I noticed that Abby Dahlkemper has been moved to a SEI (back) listing. Don't know when that switch happened, but she's been dealing with that for almost a year now. Glad the club is taking that slow and hope she can eventually return. Persistent back injuries are scary. As Thorns fans, we've seen Kling and Heath go through long back issues. At one point, I thought it was going to be the end of Kling's career.
Elton Garcia, the man who ref’d our home game against Angel City, is our ref tonight.
I don’t think Sophia will have any relief. The man missed multiple Ertz yellows, including one that led to a goal for them, and play was generally very rough.
Gross. I don’t know if you can get much worse than Penso last week (non-Koraleva division) in terms of enabling Soph-abuse, however.
SD rebounded from a pair of losses, and looked lost in both those defeat, with a couple of wins. Thorns deep sixed the worst team in the league. I don’t know that either team has fixed what’s ails them. This game is a good measuring stick for both teams. Thorns will need to get on the front foot, score first, and remind those SoCal people the Northwest rules. And maybe tie Kornieks boot laces together when she sets up in the box. Thorns win the midfield and take 3. 2-1 sounds right.
2-1 was my initial prediction, but opted for the draw. This is definitely a measuring stick game for both teams. Thorns definitely a front-foot team and luckily SD does not really play that way. Portland should have the bulk of possession and hopefully can contain the direct and counter attack from the Wave.
Do you reckon Soph is sufficiently frustrated with the scoring drought she goes in with that extra bit of motivation? We'd love to see the dam break and her finding the net again, something to counter Alex Morgan's Left Foot.
Girl was HOT chewing out the ref last Sunday.
I’m sure she’s been frustrated during the drought and would love to find the back of the net. I hope she does, too; hopefully without a lot of fruitless attempts to break through one on three situations. I’ve consoled myself during the drought with her total offensive production--goals plus assists--being far greater than anyone else in the league. Plus, her assists provide others the opportunity to score and make the offense even more dangerous. Ultimately I hope this might even lighten the defensive pressure on Sophia a bit as defenses need to spread out and cover more threats.
I expect Soph to be very focused on ending her drought...but I also expect her maturation as a player to continue, and if/when SD warms her on every attack, she'll find open teammates. There _should_ be opportunities for goals, either way.
The key to having these opportunities will be in the midfield. We'll get an early clue about that when the starting 11 is rolled out. I'm sure I needn't elaborate...
Honestly, I feel like we're already seeing the effects of Soph's scoring drought in the form of her going full tunnel-vision again. She wants to score so bad, that she will often try to dribble through multiple players, or will overlook a better pass to take a low percentage shot. She needs to play more free and not care about not scoring. She has extremely competent players around her and needs to feel ok if others are scoring instead. That's when the goals will come. Right now I feel like she's trying too hard. She is still contributing greatly to this team's success.
We're scoring more by committee right now, and it makes us more dangerous. I think we just need to get Soph more comfortable with not being the only goalscorer. Look at Kevin DeBruyne's goals/assists last year vs. this year. It's kinda nuts how the addition of Haaland has really changed his role....although, he's still arguably the most valuable player on the field, if not the planet. Last year, pre-Haaland: 19G/14A, and this year with Haaland: 10G/28A. Half the goals, double the assists. Soph just has to find her role with a more attacking/high-pressing midfield than last season. Weaver, same.
Tobin Heath went the other direction between 2016 and 2018; in ‘16 she was the queen of assists, creating and distributing. When the forwards couldn’t score two seasons later she stepped up and converted. Great players have that versatility; we’ll see where Smith falls on that scale…