Portland Timbers vs. Minnesota United FC Match Preview: A chance for validation

Portland's third match in eight days provides the opportunity to cement their turnaround.

Just three days after a scoreless draw in Utah, the Portland Timbers (4-5-4, 16 points) host Minnesota United FC (4-5-3, 15 points) in a match that will prove to be a true litmus test for how real Portland’s recent turnaround in form proves to be (kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. PT, streaming on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV).

Photo Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer/Portland Timbers

A look at the opposition

After a five game unbeaten run that saw Minnesota amass 11 points to open the 2023 season, the Loons took a nosedive and went winless in six straight league games, gaining just a single solitary point over that stretch. They tallied their first league win since April 1 — which also served as their first league win at home — on Wednesday night when they beat Houston 1-0.

A big cause for the Loons’ downturn in form lie in their lack of goalscoring production — specifically in scoring more goals when it is needed. What I mean by that is that Minnesota has failed to score more than one goal in all but two games this season in MLS, and they’ve been on the receiving end of four one-goal losses. Scrapping out 1-0 wins or 1-1 draws works early in the season, but as Minnesota found out that type of run isn’t sustainable once teams start to figure themselves out.

Their goalscoring is middle-of-the-road, and perhaps an underlying reason that is so is they haven’t really benefitted from anyone providing good service on the field. Their talisman and usual chance creator Emanuel Reynoso failed to report to preseason training camp and was suspended by MLS in February. He just returned to the team last week and is reinstated, but is still working back to full fitness and will not make the trip to Portland.

The only player on their roster who has multiple assists is midfielder Robin Lod — and he also will miss out due to a torn meniscus he suffered midweek. The Loons have already suffered from a lack of service, and now that suffering will likely be compounded for some time.

So Minnesota are a team that started hot, went ice cold, and just started showing the signs of thawing two days ago (maybe). They usually don’t give up a ton of goals, but they don’t score a bunch of them either.

The only reason the Loons aren’t further down in the table is their strong road form, and it’s something the Timbers should be wary of. Yes, Minnesota has been winless in their last four league road trips, but they’ve also tallied three road wins. They might have forgotten how to do it recently, but Minnesota is a team that at one point in time knew how to get a result in a hostile environment.

Timbers team news and outlook

This game comes at a tricky and vital time for the Timbers. It’s their third game in eight days, and while it is at home, many players have put a considerable amount of minutes on their legs over the past week.

Giovanni Savarese opted not to rotate midweek, and so the same eleven players started Portland’s two most recent games. Because of that, and because Portland has got to be careful and mindful of any additional injuries, some rotation is inevitable tomorrow night.

It’s a bummer, because some of the likeliest candidates to be rotated out have been playing some pretty good ball. Cristhian Paredes is the first name that comes to mind — he has been excellent in his last two outings, and his shift at Real Salt Lake on Wednesday was perhaps the best defensive showing he’s had in a Timbers shirt.

Another candidate is Santiago Moreno. While he hasn’t found his goalscoring boots, he has been an integral piece for creating opportunities for his teammates (the sequence leading up to Evander’s first goal from last weekend comes to mind).

With the dearth of healthy wingers Portland now has, it would be wise to start one of Dairon Asprilla or Marvin Loria in Moreno’s place. Paredes is a bit tricker as Portland decidedly does not have depth in central midfield, but a home game against a weakened foe isn’t the worst of spots for Noel Caliskan to make his MLS debut.

Whomever starts for Portland (forward is another spot to watch, by the way), they will have to focus on limiting Minnesota’s opportunities to hit them on the counterattack. With their main creative presences unavailable, it is likely that the Loons will seek to do what many teams do when they come to Providence Park: sit back, stay organized, and then attack with pace on the counterattack.

Because of that, a start similar to the one Portland showed against Vancouver will be needed. An early goal will force Minnesota out of their shell, and make more gaps for the likes of Evander to pop up in and punish the Loons. It will also help prove to everyone at the Park that the Timbers have indeed not forgotten how to score, after their underwhelming offensive display in Utah on Wednesday night.

One specific area to watch is Portland’s fullbacks. The Timbers have seemed to live or die by that position, both in how well those players defend and how well they link up in the attack. Claudio Bravo is one of those players with 180 minutes logged in the past week, and Juan Mosquera has taken a bit of a beating in his past few outings, and exited Wednesday’s game early. Neither player is on the injury report, but they will be an area to keep your eyes on as Saturday night unfolds.

One player who also isn’t on the injury report and will be on the bench on Saturday is Sebastian Blanco. He has yet to make his MLS debut this season, and as we all know Seba does love to score goals against the Loons, so Saturday could be setting up rather well for Chucky.

Whether Seba sees the field or not, the Timbers have the chance to show that their recent turnaround in form isn’t just a mirage, and can be the signs of something more. If 2023 is to truly get back on track, it starts in earnest on Saturday night.

Projected Starting XIs

Portland (4-2-3-1): Ivacic; Mosquera, Zuparic, McGraw, Bravo; D. Chara, Caliskan; Asprilla, Evander, Y. Chara; Boli

Minnesota United (3-5-2): St. Clair; Boxall, Kallman, Tapias; Taylor, Trapp, Dotson, Hlongwane, Lawrence; Jeong Sangbin, Amarilla

Match Prediction

I am always nervous about being too optimistic with a prediction for a game like this — counter intuitively even moreso when the odds are actually stacked in Portland’s favor. Minnesota’s form, injuries, and lack of goalscoring production suggest that Portland should win this one handily.

But doing anything “handily” has decidedly not been Portland’s M.O. this season, so I’m leaning towards a “oh my god why was it this close” 2-1 Timbers win. Portland gets another goal from Evander and one from Moreno (he’s gotta score sometime, right?), and Minnesota keeps things interesting until the end with one from Amarilla.