We as fans tend to get very focused on individual players and their strengths and weaknesses. Great teams are better than the sum of their players - they have cohesive strategies on both offense and defense that covers for weaknesses, maximizes strengths plus the combination of players available to them allows that to happen. I will add that they generally have at least 1, if not multiple players who dominate their position and their opponent.
The Timbers roster largely looks put together by a fantasy league manager who is looking for upside and statistics, not winning soccer.
I did a lot of complaining about Evander last year and still there are times when he seems switched off, but they are a lot less frequent now. It is very clear that this is his team and everything runs through him offensively - he has grown into the Valeri role and I think will continue to do so even more with time. He is becoming one of those dominant players, but he is the only one on this roster.
Looking from back to front:
I am not concerned about goal keeping. Crepeau is a starting MLS keeper, Pantemis a reasonable backup though I would prefer to see Crepeau 90% of the time.
Our back line is a shambles. Bravo is the best player by far but is prone to the occasional brain fart often because he is too aggressive. Mosquera's primary upside was what he brought offensively - he has never been a great defender and it feels like his offensive threat has become less and less since he has been here - watching him frequently just look like he isn't flowing, massively overthinking and you can see it with how he passes and dribbles. I honestly thought he would end up getting converted to a wing. E. Miller is a backup outside defender, limited offensively and slightly below average defensively for the league. That isn't a criticism, just his ceiling - everyone needs backups though who don't cost an arm and a leg -- right now he is a better player both ways than Mosquera though. Then we move to the center backs who are slow, communicate poorly, clear the ball poorly, mark intermittently. None have speed and reliable physical presence. McGraw looked pretty good much of last season and has taken a huge step back. Zuparic has apparently moved to bench/out of 18 role, senior citizen and while he is the smartest of our CBs, age and physical limitations seem to be catching up to him. K. Miller plays balls out, but seems way too emotional for a CB who mostly needs to keep their head no matter what happens, also slow, not very communicative. Araujo, in limited looks, appears to be a 30th percentile MLS CB. It isn't just that we are individually a mess, but there is no combination of defenders here that I think we are going to get clean sheets with, we are always going to have to score 3-4x to make up for their collective inadequacies if we want to win, 1-2 might get you a draw vs loss.
Moving to the midfield. Talisman Diego Chara is starting to look his age (and has for 2 seasons now). He still has amazing plays in him, but they are getting fewer and fewer. Paredes is a very different style of DM than Chara, as is Ayala. While together those two are much more mobile than Chara, they are also much more likely to get caught up field or misread the field defensively. Until those two mature, we are going to struggle on counters with them on the field. Williamson is on and off (has always been on and off, but before his knee injuries would have long stretches of looking dangerous). He is a reasonable backup central midfielder / box to box, but the kind of guy you want to bring on at 70 minutes to try to get a goal or kill the game. Sorry to say, not a regular starter and probably won't be in the future. Out on the wings we have Moreno who reminds me more and more of Kalif Alhassan every week. Slight of build, easy to push off the ball (and frequently is because he tries to dribble too much), not a great passer, average to poor defender - average to below average MLS wing. Apparently our new #9, Rodruguez, is really a wing (should be no surprise since that is what he was playing before he came here) and is good, but still has a while to acclimate to this team, certainly isn't fast and going to beat anyone 1v1, but he is obviously smart and has a nose for goal. I so wanted Antony to be the answer, and still seems like he can be so much better than he is, but he has many of the same faults as Moreno - gives up the ball too easily, not a great defender, and I thought after game 1 this might be a huge diamond in the rough, he has regressed to the mean. Asprilla I love due to his history, but he isn't the player he was 2-5 years ago. Clearly backup that you bring on late also. As a unit the midfield has some problems with age and weakness/strengths that don't mesh. Evander is able to paper over some of that and be the facilitator, but I am not sure he can glue this rag tag bunch together to get results especially when our defense digs a 2-3 goal deficit in the first 45 minutes every single week.
Up front - Mora is an accomplished poacher, has good off ball movement, reasonably good passer and is in a lot of ways what Evander, Rodriguez, Antony and Moreno need up there, but isn't what the back 6 need as they are so frequently pinned back and need a target. He isn't going to beat anyone off the dribble or in a foot race, he isn't going to win headers or even be a lay-off target forward. While the attack with Mora is good, I do worry about his durability and then the options are essentially playing someone out of position (Rodriguez or Evander or even Antony / Moreno) because the dropoff is so very steep to his backups (Asprilla - again, not his ideal position, Focaga - the consumate backup, I think Ikoba is still on the team, right?).
I think the only thing a different coach could do with this group is pressure MP and NG to just make some trades for expiring contracts to make the rebuild happen faster. I am fine with rebuilding around a core of Creoeau, Bravo, Paredes, Evander and Rodruguez ... but literally everyone else on the roster can go to the bench (where I would want Chara) or off the team at this point and construct something that makes sense for 2025 with a much higher ceiling. I doubt that happens because leadership believes they still can do something with this. If that is true, then at least completely rebuild 3 of the 4 starting back line positions and see if we can get better results if we just give up fewer goals (I have a bad feeling that the reason we look so good in the 2nd half is the pressure of being behind though, and other teams mentally thinking they have it in the bag).
"I am fine with rebuilding around a core of Creoeau, Bravo, Paredes, Evander and Rodruguez ... but literally everyone else on the roster can go to the bench (where I would want Chara) or off the team at this point and construct something that makes sense for 2025 with a much higher ceiling. I doubt that happens because leadership believes they still can do something with this"
I mean, you're talking about turning over, what, 10-12 roster spots in two transfer windows? I share some of your concerns about some of the roster as currently put together, but we gotta be at least slightly realistic about how teams get built. There's no way that level of turnover is going to happen in two transfer windows, that's just not how these things work.
This summer, Phil/Ned need to focus on upgrading defense. Period. Get one or two starting defenders, outside backs preferably, and maybe a cheap backup if there's one floating around, and tighten up the mess that's happening back there. Get that stabilized, see what happens the rest of the season, and then this winter focus on shoring up the midfield a bit.
The rumored new financial rules coming this summer should help the Timbers a bit in this regard, as well, and should allow them to spend more GAM on building out their depth to a much greater quality than they have currently.
Agree that turning over the back line and seeing if we can do better with the middle and front with a better defensive back line is the starting point.
It isn't that unprecedented to have massive roster turnover in MLS, you just have to be motivated and trade for expiring contracts within the league or sell overseas.
Even the Timbers did it once -- 2012. After firing Spenny, we moved Perkins and Chabala out immediately. Brought in Mwanga, Ricketts, Kimura and (LOL) Ian Hogg which were semi- to entirely related to the rebuild. That offseason we brough in Harrington, Will Johnson, Ryan Johnson, Zemanski, Silvestre, Nanchoff, Ryan Miller, and during that next season Kah, Powell, Piquione, Rashawn McKenzie, Diego Valeri and Urruti. Drafted Andrew Jean-Baptiste.
We waived Braun, Renken, Hogg, traded Kimura, Brunner, Bednik, Fucito Mwanga and Alexander and Dike. Waived Songo'o (who I loved ... but ...) and let contracts expire for Palmer, Purdy, Steven Smith. Parted ways with Boyd and Mosquera.
A little less than 16 months and the only guys left over who were starting were Jewsbury, Wallace, Nagbe and Chara with Kalif Alhassan, Valencia, Zizzo and Danso still floating back and forth from bench to spot starter. At a minimum that is the same amount of turnover as what I am saying - probably more.
I just don't think this is a team where hole plugging works - it is too big of a mess.
"Brought in Mwanga, Ricketts, Kimura and (LOL) Ian Hogg which were semi- to entirely related to the rebuild. That offseason we brough in Harrington, Will Johnson, Ryan Johnson, Zemanski, Silvestre, Nanchoff, Ryan Miller, and during that next season Kah, Powell, Piquione, Rashawn McKenzie, Diego Valeri and Urruti. Drafted Andrew Jean-Baptiste."
Of that list, let's go over which of those players were actually worth getting.
That first swath of moves only resulted in Ricketts being worth keeping (up till now, he's the best keeper the Timbers have had). And let's face it, the Timbers can't afford a 25% success rate on roster moves right now.
That next offseason's moves: Harrington, WJ, RJ, Zemanski, Silvestre, Nanchoff, Miller. Of that crop: Will Johnson was a success, Harrington slightly less so but still decent (particularly as depth), Silvestre gets an incomplete because of injury (sadly, because as a now-30-year Arsenal fan I had very high hopes for him), and the rest were...not great. Unless you wanted a guy to chase a ball into the corner and then have no clue what to do with it, which seemed to be Ben Zemanski's main skillset.
During that next season: Valeri obviously and Urruti, Kah for a season or so (I still think he was overrated, but he was at least decent depth for most of his time here), but Powell, Piquionne, and RM weren't so great.
Long story short: I'd much rather they make one or two moves and get those absolutely right than make 4-5 moves in hopes that they get one right. MLS in 2024 is a vastly different animal financially than it was in 2012; there's not exactly the runway at this point to take wild swings on a bunch of squad players in hopes that some of them pay off. There's not that many contracts coming off the books this off-season (https://www.capology.com/club/portland-timbers/salaries/2024/) and while there is now the ability to waive two players a season, not just one, that waived salary still has to be paid so it's very much a last resort move as far as roster construction goes, and the era of waiving three guys a season isn't even possible any more.
I absolutely agree that the squad as currently built is too big of a mess, and that a serious overhaul is needed, but the way that MLS roster construction and salary budget rules work right now, it's just not feasible to dismiss a big swath of the roster and bring in a bunch of guys at once, hoping a few will come good.
This team hasn't been in the ascendancy for several seasons, you're right. I'm just saying that the way MLS works now, financially and roster-construction-wise, it will take several windows for it to be put right. It can't be done all at once, as much as I would love for it to be.
With a roster in as messy of a state as the Timbers', it makes sense to pick an area of focus each window and improve that. I don't see that as "tinkering", really, because that's really the only way to do things - the Timbers had as much roster flexibility as they're gonna get this past off-season, with a ton of contracts coming off the books, and they did a pretty decent job in a few areas, but that's not an opportunity they're gonna get again for a while, so they have to be a little more tactical with their moves going forward.
I can't help but highly disagree with much of your analysis here, my friend.
"None have speed or reliable physical presence." Araujo is not slow, and McGraw is an extremely physically imposing center back and is dominant in the air. "McGraw looked pretty good much of last season and has taken a huge step back." McGraw has not taken a step back, the problem is the style of play is so different than Gioball and it accents his weaknesses. I also don't think he's been as bad as people say, just got left out to dry a few times. That being said, Araujo is playing well and deserves his starting job over him. Same with Zuparic, I think he will be back this weekend. "K. Miller plays balls out, but seems way too emotional for a CB who mostly needs to keep their head no matter what happens, also slow, not very communicative" I'd argue emotion is exactly what we need in our backline, and I certainly wouldn't call him "way too emotional," I guess I don't see how that's currently negatively impacting his play. McGraw and Zuparic are very stoic on the field, we need some personality, some flare, some energy. Also he's pretty communicative, he's talking all the time on the field. He's also been pretty darn good in my opinion, one of the best performers from this game despite the own goal. This is a starter for the Canadian national team that knows how to win in MLS. That is the exact player we need.
Midfield - Paredes isn't a DM and we know the kind of player he is, I don't think he's been particularly great this year but he's a good guy to have, he's got a lot of fight and hustle. Ayala is a true DM but hasn't gotten a run out at that position with any consistency. I love him but he's not gotten the time on the field to be entirely judged (I think he's immensely talented, but I know that's mostly just me). Williamson is for sure starting caliber, I also think he's been quite good, his ability to switch play, control and advance the ball are not things you can quantify but are extremely valuable to a team. Moreno... he's frustrating to me, he definitely isn't stepping up in the way I'd like him too. That being said... "not a great passer, average to poor defender" is odd to me when those are some of his best attributes. Especially his defense which I think has been pretty darn good recently. And the stats back this up, according to FBRef he's a pretty darn solid passer and defender. His problems, for me, are his mis-controls and ability/decision making in the final third. He just can't seem to figure it out there, which is weird to me because he has to much talent. "average to below average MLS wing" I can't help but disagree considering he has 3 goals and 5 assists this season, averaging him out to a goal contribution every 98 minutes. That's a pretty strong output.
"Rodriguez... certainly isn't fast and going to beat anyone 1v1." I mean, despite his pace, he's been one of our best 1v1 wingers we've had in a while, he's actually willing to take players on and put crosses in from the endline, and he does it with a decent consistency. I mostly agree on Antony, but again, "not a great defender"? He's a fantastic defender. He's in the 99th percentile in tackles won and in tackles+interceptions, plus has plenty of other stats where he's in the 90+ percentiles. His passing has been very poor but his defending is great. I agree he's been disappointing this season. "Mora... isn't going to win headers or even be a lay-off target forward," again, those are two of his biggest strengths to me. I mean sure he probably isn't going to out-jump a center back to a punt from the keeper, but because he's so smart as you pointed out, he wins tons of headers in the box. And he's great at holding the ball up and laying it off or drawing a foul, he knows how to use his body extremely well. (Ikoba is technically on the team but he's out on loan for the season at Indy 11 in the USL).
I know I'm very much naively positive on here, but this still feels overly harsh. This team has lots of talent and despite this loss, I do think they could be on the right track. Charlotte will be interesting, I feel like we should be able to get a win there, but we've been on the road so much and that will take a toll. I look forward to when our schedule softens up a bit because we've been going through the fire recently, and all things considered we've done alright.
It's not updated yet with the salaries of this winter's acquisitions, but otherwise it's a pretty solid source of info.
the MLSPA also puts out salary info for players once a season, in the fall. I thought they used to do it in the spring, too, but it seems they've gone to once a year. It's here - it's not very searchable/filterable though, beyond just by team or player:
It is definitely imbalanced but not sure massively so (but that is true of most teams - offensive players get all of the chicks, and bucks). ;). It isn't that we are spending nothing in back, but definitely not midfield numbers where our two DPs sit and there has been. Our highest paid CB was Zuparic last year (though I am not clear if his pay came down in the off season). Araujo is next highest paid with Bravo and Miller are similar but about 20% less, McGraw probalby now on similar contract just behind them (Zac got a big raise last year). Mosquera is bargain bin shopping.
We saved a bunch of money in the offseason by getting rid of big contracts in Niezgoda, Blanco and Y. Chara, but I suspect much of that savings went to Rodriguez - though from cap standpoint, he is a DP so doesn't hurt us as much as others).
The majority of the problems on the defensive end have been said over and over again by a couple folks here, and were laid very bare by the Kamal Miller own goal. Just look how high the line - which, to be fair, looks to be a pretty solid defensive line - was playing on that goal. A high line like that only works if you have guys on that line that are athletic enough to get back FAST when a ball inevitably gets behind them and teams break that line.
The Timbers, as currently built, do not have guys that can do that. At all. They have good defenders, objectively, but they are not even remotely constituted to play a high press, and Neville/Ridgewell's insistence on them doing so is absolutely killing this team. They're almost to the point of being asked to play out of position, it's so unnatural.
The world's most annoying broadcaster, Max Bretos, kept bringing up the good point last night that the Timbers are very close to being a good team; they have the pieces, especially going forward. But until they solve the defense, they'll keep having games like this, and they'll keep losing games they should be competitive in.
On the plus side, I was happy to see Jonathan finally get rewarded with another goal - he should have had at least two last night, but his goal was good to see and hopefully will lead to many more.
"Set-piece defending isn't really the problem this year."
Are we watching the same team? Set pieces are a HUGE problem for this team, particularly corners. So many guys not marking as they should, lots of confusion as to who should be covering the posts, etc. It's a massive issue and it has led to a bunch of goals that reasonably competent defenses wouldn't have given up. Whether it's Liam not coaching them properly or whether it's the players just not executing/being good enough, there is definitely a problem with set piece defending.
At some point you just have to shore up the defense, and I think that means E Miller starts over Mosquera, who does ok defending one v one but seems like he refuses or doesn't realize he has to or is oblivious to track runners in behind. I will trade steady defense over a good cross or two and terrible defense. Not to mention, I think Mosquera gets in the way of Antony and crowds him, or does some dumb overlapping run - not necessary. Miller did calm things down and what's more, you could see him winning balls by playing tight when LAFC tried to counter.
I see the same thing with Williamson. He just seems super soft to me, playing five yards off the ball and letting the opponent easily pass around him. One time in particular in the first half, when we had them in their third, he was not defending tight and just let them out. He's just soft, imo, except when he takes a shot at Atuesta who was running down the field off the ball.
LAFC was gassed, we had them on the ropes after we tied, and the red was just a what the hell moment. Really? A yellow? It wasn't much of a breakaway, with other defenders right there, and it just let the air out of the game. Terrible call, imo. Once again, LAFC gets away with a lot worse. I remember Antony turned Hollingshed in the first half and would have been in and headed into the box, but Hollingshed swept his legs and cut him down. That's not a yellow? Or Sanchez cutting down someone cynically in the first half. Or Atuesta knocking down Moreno in the second half on another counter. No yellows. Just terrible reffing.
The winning goal: c'mon Asprilla. You gotta clear that or at least keep Kamara out initially. You just fell down. And Zach, your one job is to clear out corners. Make a play.
I really think the Timbers are going to have a chip on their shoulder the rest of the year, and I hope this game stings and stays with them for the rest of the season. Because this result really sucks.
If tonight clarified one thing it’s that Mosquera is not a right back. As mentioned by Lefthanded49, he refuses to track runners and thinks his defensive job against some of the league’s top attackers is to pretend every player is offside then watch while they run into the box unguarded … and score or set up a score. He is a talented player, but I think he has to move into Portland’s already crowded midfield or be traded for a better defender.
It's bizarre. I remember when Mosquera arrived the buzz was that he wouldn't be in Portland long, he was going to Europe, he was a big league talent, gonna be MLS best eleven, etc., etc. And it's just not playing out in the position he's playing. And I'm not really sure why.
I think we have some lofty exceptions sometimes with young players coming arriving (maybe other mls fans do it). We heard we beat out several Spanish teams for Melano and we thought he'd be all world. Santi better turn it on really quick or he's going to be an average MLS player going forward. Same with Mosquera.
We have a reasonable right to expect great things, but it often doesn't happen.
"At some point you just have to shore up the defense, and I think that means E Miller starts over Mosquera"
That's just shuffling deck chairs, basically, and Eric Miller isn't regular starter-quality, really. This team needs two things: At least one better defender to be brought in this summer, and at least one defensive coach who understands how to organize a defense to maximize what the team has instead of aspiring to play to what it doesn't.
And the winning goal was, as per Timbers custom, not just Asprilla, but a hot mess on the part of several people; Asprilla has blame, but there were like five guys basically just standing there ball-watching when they should have been closing guys down or trying to get the ball out of danger or doing literally ANYTHING other than just standing around. That is inexcusable.
"I really think the Timbers are going to have a chip on their shoulder the rest of the year,"
If they haven't grown one yet, I'm skeptical they can. I hope you're right, but we shall see.
I appreciate the analogy, but we're talking about an actual hole that needs to be plugged. Miller did just that last night. I didn't hear much from Bouanga in the second half, and we had control of the game. Like I said above, I think it frees Antony a bit more, too, where he doesn't have to cover for Mosquera so much. Is Miller a regular starter quality? I think he's a better choice than Mosquera because he's defense first, and I think he can scoot pretty well, too. Of course there are better guys out there; he's the best option on the team right now, in my opinion.
As for the deck chairs, I would consider those would be the midfielders, and we do have a regular shuffling going on. I'm disappointed in Chara, to be honest, even though I think he got robbed a bit on the second yellow. He's done some crazy stuff this year - hand ball in the box vs DC (which was called), take down of Cucho in the box (which wasn't called), and some extra curricular on the counter (which was called). These are all big plays that have cost us points. Maybe a game off will be good for him. The other deck chair that should be playing is Paredes. He's a warrior. I'd be putting guys on the field who are willing to defend, and he would be one of them.
Mosquera had an absolutely awful game last night, to be sure. I think on balance he's better than Miller overall, but that's also not a hill I'd be willing to die on long-term and I think this summer the Timbers should go find at least one, maybe two players that are better than both of them, to be sure.
Chara's definitely getting a bit more ragged, a bit looser this year; I don't know if that's a function of an age-related decline or just sorta coincidence (the handball, in particular, could happen to anyone), but I definitely think taking the game off might be good for him and, like a couple weeks ago, good for the team as well to keep building out their eventual post-Chara identity.
Mosquera is talented and he delivered a couple of really good crosses. He also put the defense under pressure by not doing his most important job: playing defense. I think the scale tips way in the favor of out of balance, because you aren't going to pick up three points any time soon when you are giving up two to three goals per game. Last night was a perfect example of this. We went on a good run of form last year to get in the thick of a playoff berth, and the one constant there - Mosquera was not playing. I think it's pretty simple, and the evidence is there. We don't need more offense from an offense first RB to start winning games. And to balance this comment out - The own goal is not all Mosquera's fault. No pressure on Tillman and for some reason Antony was on the back line. Both he and Mosquera are expecting Bouanga to get the ball wide, but the whole first half he is making inside runs. It is fundamental to clog the channel and force the ball out wide where you can get extra help if you need it. It was like the Timbers expected the ball to go out wide and weren't ready for the channel through ball, which is lethal because then you do need a CB to get over quick. On the goal, there was a big channel to pass through. It was disgusting. Once that happened the first time, you'd think you would be prepared for that the next time. You'd think. Dumb. I think if you get some guys in there who are prepared to play defense, they talk and work it out on the field how they are going to stop this run and that run. Obviously LA was trying something they'd worked on all week, and it worked and the Timbers didn't react to it - until the second half when Phil put in E Miller.
There are so many players that just look like they aren't even mls level. The amount of jogging around and not giving everything on the field is maddening. It's like maybe these players don't want to be professional soccer players and are just looking for a check. Cause a lot of them look like they need to be transferred out. Lazy AF. It's hard to watch this team anymore after so many years of trash. I seriously find myself watching other teams. I can't stand terrible soccer. And this team has been playing it for years.
MLS just released the roster status for every team in MLS, which is just fantastic! We have clarity on roster designations and contract lengths. We only have a few senior roster players that will be out of contract at the end of this season, so this team will not be largely overhauled in the winter I’d imagine. But this is a great source for us to have now!! Hopefully this is a regular thing
Been a busy and, uh, eventful week in Portland the past few days and I haven’t really given my thoughts on this game. To me, this was our worst game of the season. Yes the Philly game was technically a worse loss, but we played very well in that game and should’ve been up 2 or 3-0 by halftime. In this game we got torn apart defensively, and if it weren’t for some poor finishing and heroics by Crepeau (he was fantastic), we would’ve lost by 2 or 3. The defending was rough, it seemed like all the good defensive work we saw in Columbus went out the window (that result gets better by the week as we see how Columbus walked over Monterrey in CCC, getting a point on the road there is great). We were disorganized and undisciplined. After defending Bouanga very well in Portland, Mosquera had a nightmare game. To me, it seemed like the mentality going in was all off. In Columbus, Phil clearly knew we were going to suffer and he had us sit lower and be more rigid defensively, and coming out and playing when we had the chances. Before the LAFC match, Phil was talking about how we were going to take it to them and play, and that did not work. We were too open and not ready to handle the pressure.
The pessimism is warranted, many of the defensive frailties we’ve seen too many signs of this season all came bubbling up and they exploited us. It has to change, and we’ve seen very little evidence thus far that it can or will change. Mosquera needs to get his mindset right, I think he can be a good defender but he just stops defending. He has very little awareness. I don’t think he’s a lost cause because I believe these things can be coached into him, but it’s gotta happen fast. Well done on Neville for pulling him out at halftime, Bouanga was mostly quiet in the second half until his goal. We need another outside back in the summer, someone who can play both the right and left either to start over Mosquera or back up Bravo. There was one moment on the broadcast when Kamal Miller made a great last ditch tackle/block and the ball went out for a corner, and the camera zoomed in on his face as he just held his arms out to the rest of the team with an extremely exasperated look on his face. His face was just “come on, what the hell guys, can I get some help?” He was not happy whatsoever. The defensive structure needs to get on the same page, that look showed me these players are not working together.
With that ALL being said, and this game being our worst of the year… we were playing in a very difficult environment, playing without our star DP 10 who is by far our best player, while on the sixth road game in the past 8 games, against a very good team, down two goals in the first half, and STILL came back to tie the game in the second half and damn near stole a point. I’m unhappy with the game, but I’m very happy about *that.* Neville is getting this team to fight, he just needs to figure out how to do it from the start. This team is not rolling over and playing like a USL2 side whenever they go down on the road like we have in the past. If we hadn’t gotten that red card there’s a very real chance we walk away with a point, and I would’ve been happy with that. I know we’re getting tired of ties, but considering our schedule I think many of them have been good results. This stretch could’ve been disastrous, but it hasn’t been. We just need to show it at home.
I think this team is on a tipping point, and they can go two ways: this could all fall apart, the defense doesn’t improve, and we just can’t keep up. Or the defense improves enough as our schedule softens and Araujo gets more playing time, and our offense keeps clicking and the team goes where I think this roster has the capability of going, which is top four in the west. I think this is a good group of players with tons of talent. For all its faults I’m really enjoying watching this team
The Charlotte game should be a win. We gotta have a good showing. Things have to start turning around in terms of the results and defending. I’m looking forward to Ayala hopefully starting in place of Chara, and Evander being back.
Bravo was a goddamn beast out there. Miller was quite good too. I thought Williamson was good when he got the ball, but wasn’t involved enough. There were many times where he faked going one way and then went the other way, opening up the defense. Unfortunately, he gave the ball to Mosquera and Antony a lot, and they just lost the ball constantly. I feel like I’m one of three people who thought Moreno played well, and I hope he can keep producing, because when he’s in form it brings a different dynamic to the offense. Two goals in two games on the road is a good place to start. But we need to see improvement, not bursts of form… that goes for the entire team. The good is not consistent enough
That's the thing - to me it's not bewildering. The Timbers are not set up defensively to maximize their abilities. Phil/Liam are trying to make them play a way in which they are not capable, and we can all see that it's not working. Except the two of them.
What’s the change you would make defensively? And then how would that change dictate offensively what we do? Mosquera had a ROUGH game yesterday. But the pieces were in the right place. I mean the last goal? He hits it off the frame and in, kind of a perfect shot. So for all our “ineptitude” it is still taking a hell of an effort to beat us. The last time I remember an early season like this with such tantalizing potential? 2015.
Ditch the high defensive line, ASAP. The Timbers don't have the speed to play a high press. Just look, again, at that first LAFC goal, the Miller OG. The defensive line was soooooo high, they had absolutely zero chance of getting back to cover once the LAFC pass broke the line. And they play that high up far too often.
I honestly don't think the Timbers need to change too much offensively, and I don't think there's too much that needs to shift as far as a transition game. Just play a lower block, recognizing that for all the strengths the Timbers have as defenders, speed is not one of them. They don't need to "park the bus", or whatever cliche is cool at the moment; just back that high defensive line up about 5-6 yards and things will improve dramatically, because the back line won't have to be as frantic or as panicked as they are now when they inevitably have to chase things and have no idea how to.
That is seemingly what leads to a lot of the forehead-slappingly bad moments we've seen so far this season, when they get pulled out of their high line and have to scramble to cover and they end up clueless.
I'm on board with your analysis and plan for the D. I don't usually listen to post game interviews with the manager so I don't know if anyone ever poses a question to him about why he continues to use the high line when it clearly isn't working and he doesn't have the players to deploy with that formation?
I would trade or sell Mosquera. Also trade McGraw and K. Miller (or move them to backups). Would not spend DP money in back, but would bring in competent communicative defenders and hopefully one who can get up field similarly to Mosquera but also defend.
These guys are not going to get better, they all have fatal flaws which collectively are a total disaster for cohesive defense.
You can drop the high line all day long, but it will still be individual f ups even when we are deeper. It isn't like we are constantly getting scored on by guys running free from midfield in behind, we are getting scored on because we have defenders who either cannot identify or execute their role in defending. All of these guys have been pros for years, they shouldn't look like a bunch of buddies who got together for a match on the weekend and nobody wanted to play on the back line.
You would trade Kamal Miller, who has played in Portland for all of 10 games and is one of the best defenders on the team, and arguably one of the better defenders in the league in the last couple seasons? Really?
I’m surprised you say that about Kamal Miller. I think he was the best timber on the field in the first half. He was the main defender keeping them from scoring.
I can understand your thought on the high line. And when we have miller out wide I agree. Hence why lafc changed sides in the second half. When it is Mosquera out wide though I would argue we do have the speed. The problem isn’t where we start. The problem is unmarked runners. He is young. What can the coaches do to get him moving towards the ball? Or maybe it just isn’t in his makeup. In basketball some guys will dive on the floor for a loose ball and some will not. No amount of coaching changes that desire.
My expectations for this season and this squad were always low, but were also higher than last season. This roster is a mess, albeit an improving mess over this time last year. Ned's done good work but there's more to do, for sure.
When they announced Neville as the coach, I gave up hoping for a radical improvement, even with the roster the team has; he's not a good enough coach to do that. With Neville as coach, my expectation shifted to merely wanting the Timbers to become a more cohesive squad, and to being a somewhat disciplined unit that might play with purpose this season, with an eye towards becoming a real contender again in 2025.
What we've seen, though, is still a mess. On the offensive/attacking side of things, we've seen some progress, for sure, and there has been some real signs of "this could be something great" here and there. On defense, and in transition, though? It's been a mess, all season, and the most disappointing thing to me is the issues from the beginning of the season haven't really gotten any better, now 10 games in.
That tells me It's both a roster problem AND a coaching problem, honestly. I never expected the 2024 Timbers to go from missing the playoffs last year to being Supporters' Shield contenders; I did expect them to show progress week over week towards being a more solid, maybe mid-table or slightly better team. And I'm just not seeing that.
We have a DP slot and need a dominant 6/8. I'd start there. (For the near term, an upgrade at that position would help paper over our defensive woes, especially since Chara doesn't have the legs he once did. For the long term, that's a position we need shored-up to build a team around. IMHO, neither Paredes or Ayala are that player. We need to think 'splash' signing here.)
"Instead I am wondering about the vision for the club and how Ned/Phil plan to get there?"
I don't know that a vision such as that has ever really been articulated, and I would also love to hear one. I would love to hear a statement of ambition, of "we want to be (whatever goal they want to achieve)". But...nothing.
"Is the slide in fan stadium experience indicative of how Timbers do business and treat players now?"
I don't think that's exclusive to the Timbers, honestly. I think all sports have gone through the exercise of seeing what a post-COVID sports world looks like, and what they see is...people still showing up no matter what, now almost more than at any time in the last 10 years or so.
Which, to be blunt, gives them license to do whatever they want to do, business-wise. They know they've got a business model that works, so they don't really even need to pay more than cursory lip service to "we love our fans!!!!" any more, they way they used to. Because butts still fill seats, and because eyeballs still watch streams.
"What can Davis do on her side of things to help facilitate a winning culture?"
If she is truly calling the shots (and I have my doubts, despite MP saying he's "stepped aside"), she can keep giving Ned the resources - monetary, scouting, and analytics - to build the team he wants to build. We've seen the start of this in the last couple windows, and yet the Timbers are at a point in their playing evolution where they're being left in the dust by the newer and more well-resourced teams in the league.
To keep up with those teams is Portland's challenge; there's no market-sized based reason they can't, it's just a question of whether MP will write the checks (I know nobody writes checks in 2024, but the metaphor persists) to support the infrastructure needed to build that level of winning.
We as fans tend to get very focused on individual players and their strengths and weaknesses. Great teams are better than the sum of their players - they have cohesive strategies on both offense and defense that covers for weaknesses, maximizes strengths plus the combination of players available to them allows that to happen. I will add that they generally have at least 1, if not multiple players who dominate their position and their opponent.
The Timbers roster largely looks put together by a fantasy league manager who is looking for upside and statistics, not winning soccer.
I did a lot of complaining about Evander last year and still there are times when he seems switched off, but they are a lot less frequent now. It is very clear that this is his team and everything runs through him offensively - he has grown into the Valeri role and I think will continue to do so even more with time. He is becoming one of those dominant players, but he is the only one on this roster.
Looking from back to front:
I am not concerned about goal keeping. Crepeau is a starting MLS keeper, Pantemis a reasonable backup though I would prefer to see Crepeau 90% of the time.
Our back line is a shambles. Bravo is the best player by far but is prone to the occasional brain fart often because he is too aggressive. Mosquera's primary upside was what he brought offensively - he has never been a great defender and it feels like his offensive threat has become less and less since he has been here - watching him frequently just look like he isn't flowing, massively overthinking and you can see it with how he passes and dribbles. I honestly thought he would end up getting converted to a wing. E. Miller is a backup outside defender, limited offensively and slightly below average defensively for the league. That isn't a criticism, just his ceiling - everyone needs backups though who don't cost an arm and a leg -- right now he is a better player both ways than Mosquera though. Then we move to the center backs who are slow, communicate poorly, clear the ball poorly, mark intermittently. None have speed and reliable physical presence. McGraw looked pretty good much of last season and has taken a huge step back. Zuparic has apparently moved to bench/out of 18 role, senior citizen and while he is the smartest of our CBs, age and physical limitations seem to be catching up to him. K. Miller plays balls out, but seems way too emotional for a CB who mostly needs to keep their head no matter what happens, also slow, not very communicative. Araujo, in limited looks, appears to be a 30th percentile MLS CB. It isn't just that we are individually a mess, but there is no combination of defenders here that I think we are going to get clean sheets with, we are always going to have to score 3-4x to make up for their collective inadequacies if we want to win, 1-2 might get you a draw vs loss.
Moving to the midfield. Talisman Diego Chara is starting to look his age (and has for 2 seasons now). He still has amazing plays in him, but they are getting fewer and fewer. Paredes is a very different style of DM than Chara, as is Ayala. While together those two are much more mobile than Chara, they are also much more likely to get caught up field or misread the field defensively. Until those two mature, we are going to struggle on counters with them on the field. Williamson is on and off (has always been on and off, but before his knee injuries would have long stretches of looking dangerous). He is a reasonable backup central midfielder / box to box, but the kind of guy you want to bring on at 70 minutes to try to get a goal or kill the game. Sorry to say, not a regular starter and probably won't be in the future. Out on the wings we have Moreno who reminds me more and more of Kalif Alhassan every week. Slight of build, easy to push off the ball (and frequently is because he tries to dribble too much), not a great passer, average to poor defender - average to below average MLS wing. Apparently our new #9, Rodruguez, is really a wing (should be no surprise since that is what he was playing before he came here) and is good, but still has a while to acclimate to this team, certainly isn't fast and going to beat anyone 1v1, but he is obviously smart and has a nose for goal. I so wanted Antony to be the answer, and still seems like he can be so much better than he is, but he has many of the same faults as Moreno - gives up the ball too easily, not a great defender, and I thought after game 1 this might be a huge diamond in the rough, he has regressed to the mean. Asprilla I love due to his history, but he isn't the player he was 2-5 years ago. Clearly backup that you bring on late also. As a unit the midfield has some problems with age and weakness/strengths that don't mesh. Evander is able to paper over some of that and be the facilitator, but I am not sure he can glue this rag tag bunch together to get results especially when our defense digs a 2-3 goal deficit in the first 45 minutes every single week.
Up front - Mora is an accomplished poacher, has good off ball movement, reasonably good passer and is in a lot of ways what Evander, Rodriguez, Antony and Moreno need up there, but isn't what the back 6 need as they are so frequently pinned back and need a target. He isn't going to beat anyone off the dribble or in a foot race, he isn't going to win headers or even be a lay-off target forward. While the attack with Mora is good, I do worry about his durability and then the options are essentially playing someone out of position (Rodriguez or Evander or even Antony / Moreno) because the dropoff is so very steep to his backups (Asprilla - again, not his ideal position, Focaga - the consumate backup, I think Ikoba is still on the team, right?).
I think the only thing a different coach could do with this group is pressure MP and NG to just make some trades for expiring contracts to make the rebuild happen faster. I am fine with rebuilding around a core of Creoeau, Bravo, Paredes, Evander and Rodruguez ... but literally everyone else on the roster can go to the bench (where I would want Chara) or off the team at this point and construct something that makes sense for 2025 with a much higher ceiling. I doubt that happens because leadership believes they still can do something with this. If that is true, then at least completely rebuild 3 of the 4 starting back line positions and see if we can get better results if we just give up fewer goals (I have a bad feeling that the reason we look so good in the 2nd half is the pressure of being behind though, and other teams mentally thinking they have it in the bag).
"I am fine with rebuilding around a core of Creoeau, Bravo, Paredes, Evander and Rodruguez ... but literally everyone else on the roster can go to the bench (where I would want Chara) or off the team at this point and construct something that makes sense for 2025 with a much higher ceiling. I doubt that happens because leadership believes they still can do something with this"
I mean, you're talking about turning over, what, 10-12 roster spots in two transfer windows? I share some of your concerns about some of the roster as currently put together, but we gotta be at least slightly realistic about how teams get built. There's no way that level of turnover is going to happen in two transfer windows, that's just not how these things work.
This summer, Phil/Ned need to focus on upgrading defense. Period. Get one or two starting defenders, outside backs preferably, and maybe a cheap backup if there's one floating around, and tighten up the mess that's happening back there. Get that stabilized, see what happens the rest of the season, and then this winter focus on shoring up the midfield a bit.
The rumored new financial rules coming this summer should help the Timbers a bit in this regard, as well, and should allow them to spend more GAM on building out their depth to a much greater quality than they have currently.
That is 6 starters.
Agree that turning over the back line and seeing if we can do better with the middle and front with a better defensive back line is the starting point.
It isn't that unprecedented to have massive roster turnover in MLS, you just have to be motivated and trade for expiring contracts within the league or sell overseas.
Even the Timbers did it once -- 2012. After firing Spenny, we moved Perkins and Chabala out immediately. Brought in Mwanga, Ricketts, Kimura and (LOL) Ian Hogg which were semi- to entirely related to the rebuild. That offseason we brough in Harrington, Will Johnson, Ryan Johnson, Zemanski, Silvestre, Nanchoff, Ryan Miller, and during that next season Kah, Powell, Piquione, Rashawn McKenzie, Diego Valeri and Urruti. Drafted Andrew Jean-Baptiste.
We waived Braun, Renken, Hogg, traded Kimura, Brunner, Bednik, Fucito Mwanga and Alexander and Dike. Waived Songo'o (who I loved ... but ...) and let contracts expire for Palmer, Purdy, Steven Smith. Parted ways with Boyd and Mosquera.
A little less than 16 months and the only guys left over who were starting were Jewsbury, Wallace, Nagbe and Chara with Kalif Alhassan, Valencia, Zizzo and Danso still floating back and forth from bench to spot starter. At a minimum that is the same amount of turnover as what I am saying - probably more.
I just don't think this is a team where hole plugging works - it is too big of a mess.
Okay, so:
"Brought in Mwanga, Ricketts, Kimura and (LOL) Ian Hogg which were semi- to entirely related to the rebuild. That offseason we brough in Harrington, Will Johnson, Ryan Johnson, Zemanski, Silvestre, Nanchoff, Ryan Miller, and during that next season Kah, Powell, Piquione, Rashawn McKenzie, Diego Valeri and Urruti. Drafted Andrew Jean-Baptiste."
Of that list, let's go over which of those players were actually worth getting.
That first swath of moves only resulted in Ricketts being worth keeping (up till now, he's the best keeper the Timbers have had). And let's face it, the Timbers can't afford a 25% success rate on roster moves right now.
That next offseason's moves: Harrington, WJ, RJ, Zemanski, Silvestre, Nanchoff, Miller. Of that crop: Will Johnson was a success, Harrington slightly less so but still decent (particularly as depth), Silvestre gets an incomplete because of injury (sadly, because as a now-30-year Arsenal fan I had very high hopes for him), and the rest were...not great. Unless you wanted a guy to chase a ball into the corner and then have no clue what to do with it, which seemed to be Ben Zemanski's main skillset.
During that next season: Valeri obviously and Urruti, Kah for a season or so (I still think he was overrated, but he was at least decent depth for most of his time here), but Powell, Piquionne, and RM weren't so great.
Long story short: I'd much rather they make one or two moves and get those absolutely right than make 4-5 moves in hopes that they get one right. MLS in 2024 is a vastly different animal financially than it was in 2012; there's not exactly the runway at this point to take wild swings on a bunch of squad players in hopes that some of them pay off. There's not that many contracts coming off the books this off-season (https://www.capology.com/club/portland-timbers/salaries/2024/) and while there is now the ability to waive two players a season, not just one, that waived salary still has to be paid so it's very much a last resort move as far as roster construction goes, and the era of waiving three guys a season isn't even possible any more.
I absolutely agree that the squad as currently built is too big of a mess, and that a serious overhaul is needed, but the way that MLS roster construction and salary budget rules work right now, it's just not feasible to dismiss a big swath of the roster and bring in a bunch of guys at once, hoping a few will come good.
This team hasn't been in the ascendancy for several seasons, you're right. I'm just saying that the way MLS works now, financially and roster-construction-wise, it will take several windows for it to be put right. It can't be done all at once, as much as I would love for it to be.
With a roster in as messy of a state as the Timbers', it makes sense to pick an area of focus each window and improve that. I don't see that as "tinkering", really, because that's really the only way to do things - the Timbers had as much roster flexibility as they're gonna get this past off-season, with a ton of contracts coming off the books, and they did a pretty decent job in a few areas, but that's not an opportunity they're gonna get again for a while, so they have to be a little more tactical with their moves going forward.
I can't help but highly disagree with much of your analysis here, my friend.
"None have speed or reliable physical presence." Araujo is not slow, and McGraw is an extremely physically imposing center back and is dominant in the air. "McGraw looked pretty good much of last season and has taken a huge step back." McGraw has not taken a step back, the problem is the style of play is so different than Gioball and it accents his weaknesses. I also don't think he's been as bad as people say, just got left out to dry a few times. That being said, Araujo is playing well and deserves his starting job over him. Same with Zuparic, I think he will be back this weekend. "K. Miller plays balls out, but seems way too emotional for a CB who mostly needs to keep their head no matter what happens, also slow, not very communicative" I'd argue emotion is exactly what we need in our backline, and I certainly wouldn't call him "way too emotional," I guess I don't see how that's currently negatively impacting his play. McGraw and Zuparic are very stoic on the field, we need some personality, some flare, some energy. Also he's pretty communicative, he's talking all the time on the field. He's also been pretty darn good in my opinion, one of the best performers from this game despite the own goal. This is a starter for the Canadian national team that knows how to win in MLS. That is the exact player we need.
Midfield - Paredes isn't a DM and we know the kind of player he is, I don't think he's been particularly great this year but he's a good guy to have, he's got a lot of fight and hustle. Ayala is a true DM but hasn't gotten a run out at that position with any consistency. I love him but he's not gotten the time on the field to be entirely judged (I think he's immensely talented, but I know that's mostly just me). Williamson is for sure starting caliber, I also think he's been quite good, his ability to switch play, control and advance the ball are not things you can quantify but are extremely valuable to a team. Moreno... he's frustrating to me, he definitely isn't stepping up in the way I'd like him too. That being said... "not a great passer, average to poor defender" is odd to me when those are some of his best attributes. Especially his defense which I think has been pretty darn good recently. And the stats back this up, according to FBRef he's a pretty darn solid passer and defender. His problems, for me, are his mis-controls and ability/decision making in the final third. He just can't seem to figure it out there, which is weird to me because he has to much talent. "average to below average MLS wing" I can't help but disagree considering he has 3 goals and 5 assists this season, averaging him out to a goal contribution every 98 minutes. That's a pretty strong output.
"Rodriguez... certainly isn't fast and going to beat anyone 1v1." I mean, despite his pace, he's been one of our best 1v1 wingers we've had in a while, he's actually willing to take players on and put crosses in from the endline, and he does it with a decent consistency. I mostly agree on Antony, but again, "not a great defender"? He's a fantastic defender. He's in the 99th percentile in tackles won and in tackles+interceptions, plus has plenty of other stats where he's in the 90+ percentiles. His passing has been very poor but his defending is great. I agree he's been disappointing this season. "Mora... isn't going to win headers or even be a lay-off target forward," again, those are two of his biggest strengths to me. I mean sure he probably isn't going to out-jump a center back to a punt from the keeper, but because he's so smart as you pointed out, he wins tons of headers in the box. And he's great at holding the ball up and laying it off or drawing a foul, he knows how to use his body extremely well. (Ikoba is technically on the team but he's out on loan for the season at Indy 11 in the USL).
I know I'm very much naively positive on here, but this still feels overly harsh. This team has lots of talent and despite this loss, I do think they could be on the right track. Charlotte will be interesting, I feel like we should be able to get a win there, but we've been on the road so much and that will take a toll. I look forward to when our schedule softens up a bit because we've been going through the fire recently, and all things considered we've done alright.
MLS as a league is very biased towards offense, spending-wise, and the Timbers are no exception. I generally use this site for salary info:
https://www.capology.com/club/portland-timbers/salaries/2024/
It's not updated yet with the salaries of this winter's acquisitions, but otherwise it's a pretty solid source of info.
the MLSPA also puts out salary info for players once a season, in the fall. I thought they used to do it in the spring, too, but it seems they've gone to once a year. It's here - it's not very searchable/filterable though, beyond just by team or player:
https://mlsplayers.org/resources/salary-guide
It is definitely imbalanced but not sure massively so (but that is true of most teams - offensive players get all of the chicks, and bucks). ;). It isn't that we are spending nothing in back, but definitely not midfield numbers where our two DPs sit and there has been. Our highest paid CB was Zuparic last year (though I am not clear if his pay came down in the off season). Araujo is next highest paid with Bravo and Miller are similar but about 20% less, McGraw probalby now on similar contract just behind them (Zac got a big raise last year). Mosquera is bargain bin shopping.
We saved a bunch of money in the offseason by getting rid of big contracts in Niezgoda, Blanco and Y. Chara, but I suspect much of that savings went to Rodriguez - though from cap standpoint, he is a DP so doesn't hurt us as much as others).
The majority of the problems on the defensive end have been said over and over again by a couple folks here, and were laid very bare by the Kamal Miller own goal. Just look how high the line - which, to be fair, looks to be a pretty solid defensive line - was playing on that goal. A high line like that only works if you have guys on that line that are athletic enough to get back FAST when a ball inevitably gets behind them and teams break that line.
The Timbers, as currently built, do not have guys that can do that. At all. They have good defenders, objectively, but they are not even remotely constituted to play a high press, and Neville/Ridgewell's insistence on them doing so is absolutely killing this team. They're almost to the point of being asked to play out of position, it's so unnatural.
The world's most annoying broadcaster, Max Bretos, kept bringing up the good point last night that the Timbers are very close to being a good team; they have the pieces, especially going forward. But until they solve the defense, they'll keep having games like this, and they'll keep losing games they should be competitive in.
On the plus side, I was happy to see Jonathan finally get rewarded with another goal - he should have had at least two last night, but his goal was good to see and hopefully will lead to many more.
"Set-piece defending isn't really the problem this year."
Are we watching the same team? Set pieces are a HUGE problem for this team, particularly corners. So many guys not marking as they should, lots of confusion as to who should be covering the posts, etc. It's a massive issue and it has led to a bunch of goals that reasonably competent defenses wouldn't have given up. Whether it's Liam not coaching them properly or whether it's the players just not executing/being good enough, there is definitely a problem with set piece defending.
At some point you just have to shore up the defense, and I think that means E Miller starts over Mosquera, who does ok defending one v one but seems like he refuses or doesn't realize he has to or is oblivious to track runners in behind. I will trade steady defense over a good cross or two and terrible defense. Not to mention, I think Mosquera gets in the way of Antony and crowds him, or does some dumb overlapping run - not necessary. Miller did calm things down and what's more, you could see him winning balls by playing tight when LAFC tried to counter.
I see the same thing with Williamson. He just seems super soft to me, playing five yards off the ball and letting the opponent easily pass around him. One time in particular in the first half, when we had them in their third, he was not defending tight and just let them out. He's just soft, imo, except when he takes a shot at Atuesta who was running down the field off the ball.
LAFC was gassed, we had them on the ropes after we tied, and the red was just a what the hell moment. Really? A yellow? It wasn't much of a breakaway, with other defenders right there, and it just let the air out of the game. Terrible call, imo. Once again, LAFC gets away with a lot worse. I remember Antony turned Hollingshed in the first half and would have been in and headed into the box, but Hollingshed swept his legs and cut him down. That's not a yellow? Or Sanchez cutting down someone cynically in the first half. Or Atuesta knocking down Moreno in the second half on another counter. No yellows. Just terrible reffing.
The winning goal: c'mon Asprilla. You gotta clear that or at least keep Kamara out initially. You just fell down. And Zach, your one job is to clear out corners. Make a play.
I really think the Timbers are going to have a chip on their shoulder the rest of the year, and I hope this game stings and stays with them for the rest of the season. Because this result really sucks.
If tonight clarified one thing it’s that Mosquera is not a right back. As mentioned by Lefthanded49, he refuses to track runners and thinks his defensive job against some of the league’s top attackers is to pretend every player is offside then watch while they run into the box unguarded … and score or set up a score. He is a talented player, but I think he has to move into Portland’s already crowded midfield or be traded for a better defender.
It's bizarre. I remember when Mosquera arrived the buzz was that he wouldn't be in Portland long, he was going to Europe, he was a big league talent, gonna be MLS best eleven, etc., etc. And it's just not playing out in the position he's playing. And I'm not really sure why.
It was like he wasn't there when Bouanga came knocking.
I think we have some lofty exceptions sometimes with young players coming arriving (maybe other mls fans do it). We heard we beat out several Spanish teams for Melano and we thought he'd be all world. Santi better turn it on really quick or he's going to be an average MLS player going forward. Same with Mosquera.
We have a reasonable right to expect great things, but it often doesn't happen.
"At some point you just have to shore up the defense, and I think that means E Miller starts over Mosquera"
That's just shuffling deck chairs, basically, and Eric Miller isn't regular starter-quality, really. This team needs two things: At least one better defender to be brought in this summer, and at least one defensive coach who understands how to organize a defense to maximize what the team has instead of aspiring to play to what it doesn't.
And the winning goal was, as per Timbers custom, not just Asprilla, but a hot mess on the part of several people; Asprilla has blame, but there were like five guys basically just standing there ball-watching when they should have been closing guys down or trying to get the ball out of danger or doing literally ANYTHING other than just standing around. That is inexcusable.
"I really think the Timbers are going to have a chip on their shoulder the rest of the year,"
If they haven't grown one yet, I'm skeptical they can. I hope you're right, but we shall see.
RE: "Shuffling deck chairs"
I appreciate the analogy, but we're talking about an actual hole that needs to be plugged. Miller did just that last night. I didn't hear much from Bouanga in the second half, and we had control of the game. Like I said above, I think it frees Antony a bit more, too, where he doesn't have to cover for Mosquera so much. Is Miller a regular starter quality? I think he's a better choice than Mosquera because he's defense first, and I think he can scoot pretty well, too. Of course there are better guys out there; he's the best option on the team right now, in my opinion.
As for the deck chairs, I would consider those would be the midfielders, and we do have a regular shuffling going on. I'm disappointed in Chara, to be honest, even though I think he got robbed a bit on the second yellow. He's done some crazy stuff this year - hand ball in the box vs DC (which was called), take down of Cucho in the box (which wasn't called), and some extra curricular on the counter (which was called). These are all big plays that have cost us points. Maybe a game off will be good for him. The other deck chair that should be playing is Paredes. He's a warrior. I'd be putting guys on the field who are willing to defend, and he would be one of them.
Mosquera had an absolutely awful game last night, to be sure. I think on balance he's better than Miller overall, but that's also not a hill I'd be willing to die on long-term and I think this summer the Timbers should go find at least one, maybe two players that are better than both of them, to be sure.
Chara's definitely getting a bit more ragged, a bit looser this year; I don't know if that's a function of an age-related decline or just sorta coincidence (the handball, in particular, could happen to anyone), but I definitely think taking the game off might be good for him and, like a couple weeks ago, good for the team as well to keep building out their eventual post-Chara identity.
Mosquera is talented and he delivered a couple of really good crosses. He also put the defense under pressure by not doing his most important job: playing defense. I think the scale tips way in the favor of out of balance, because you aren't going to pick up three points any time soon when you are giving up two to three goals per game. Last night was a perfect example of this. We went on a good run of form last year to get in the thick of a playoff berth, and the one constant there - Mosquera was not playing. I think it's pretty simple, and the evidence is there. We don't need more offense from an offense first RB to start winning games. And to balance this comment out - The own goal is not all Mosquera's fault. No pressure on Tillman and for some reason Antony was on the back line. Both he and Mosquera are expecting Bouanga to get the ball wide, but the whole first half he is making inside runs. It is fundamental to clog the channel and force the ball out wide where you can get extra help if you need it. It was like the Timbers expected the ball to go out wide and weren't ready for the channel through ball, which is lethal because then you do need a CB to get over quick. On the goal, there was a big channel to pass through. It was disgusting. Once that happened the first time, you'd think you would be prepared for that the next time. You'd think. Dumb. I think if you get some guys in there who are prepared to play defense, they talk and work it out on the field how they are going to stop this run and that run. Obviously LA was trying something they'd worked on all week, and it worked and the Timbers didn't react to it - until the second half when Phil put in E Miller.
There are so many players that just look like they aren't even mls level. The amount of jogging around and not giving everything on the field is maddening. It's like maybe these players don't want to be professional soccer players and are just looking for a check. Cause a lot of them look like they need to be transferred out. Lazy AF. It's hard to watch this team anymore after so many years of trash. I seriously find myself watching other teams. I can't stand terrible soccer. And this team has been playing it for years.
MLS just released the roster status for every team in MLS, which is just fantastic! We have clarity on roster designations and contract lengths. We only have a few senior roster players that will be out of contract at the end of this season, so this team will not be largely overhauled in the winter I’d imagine. But this is a great source for us to have now!! Hopefully this is a regular thing
https://mlssoccer.app.box.com/s/e8eu9jpgtk09j03ynasb6zpd6hur37yk
Every small bit of clarity is good. Hopefully someday they'll release it in a more searchable/sortable format, but I'll definitely take this.
This team is really starting to look a lot like Neville's 2022 Miami team. And that's not a good thing.
Been a busy and, uh, eventful week in Portland the past few days and I haven’t really given my thoughts on this game. To me, this was our worst game of the season. Yes the Philly game was technically a worse loss, but we played very well in that game and should’ve been up 2 or 3-0 by halftime. In this game we got torn apart defensively, and if it weren’t for some poor finishing and heroics by Crepeau (he was fantastic), we would’ve lost by 2 or 3. The defending was rough, it seemed like all the good defensive work we saw in Columbus went out the window (that result gets better by the week as we see how Columbus walked over Monterrey in CCC, getting a point on the road there is great). We were disorganized and undisciplined. After defending Bouanga very well in Portland, Mosquera had a nightmare game. To me, it seemed like the mentality going in was all off. In Columbus, Phil clearly knew we were going to suffer and he had us sit lower and be more rigid defensively, and coming out and playing when we had the chances. Before the LAFC match, Phil was talking about how we were going to take it to them and play, and that did not work. We were too open and not ready to handle the pressure.
The pessimism is warranted, many of the defensive frailties we’ve seen too many signs of this season all came bubbling up and they exploited us. It has to change, and we’ve seen very little evidence thus far that it can or will change. Mosquera needs to get his mindset right, I think he can be a good defender but he just stops defending. He has very little awareness. I don’t think he’s a lost cause because I believe these things can be coached into him, but it’s gotta happen fast. Well done on Neville for pulling him out at halftime, Bouanga was mostly quiet in the second half until his goal. We need another outside back in the summer, someone who can play both the right and left either to start over Mosquera or back up Bravo. There was one moment on the broadcast when Kamal Miller made a great last ditch tackle/block and the ball went out for a corner, and the camera zoomed in on his face as he just held his arms out to the rest of the team with an extremely exasperated look on his face. His face was just “come on, what the hell guys, can I get some help?” He was not happy whatsoever. The defensive structure needs to get on the same page, that look showed me these players are not working together.
With that ALL being said, and this game being our worst of the year… we were playing in a very difficult environment, playing without our star DP 10 who is by far our best player, while on the sixth road game in the past 8 games, against a very good team, down two goals in the first half, and STILL came back to tie the game in the second half and damn near stole a point. I’m unhappy with the game, but I’m very happy about *that.* Neville is getting this team to fight, he just needs to figure out how to do it from the start. This team is not rolling over and playing like a USL2 side whenever they go down on the road like we have in the past. If we hadn’t gotten that red card there’s a very real chance we walk away with a point, and I would’ve been happy with that. I know we’re getting tired of ties, but considering our schedule I think many of them have been good results. This stretch could’ve been disastrous, but it hasn’t been. We just need to show it at home.
I think this team is on a tipping point, and they can go two ways: this could all fall apart, the defense doesn’t improve, and we just can’t keep up. Or the defense improves enough as our schedule softens and Araujo gets more playing time, and our offense keeps clicking and the team goes where I think this roster has the capability of going, which is top four in the west. I think this is a good group of players with tons of talent. For all its faults I’m really enjoying watching this team
The Charlotte game should be a win. We gotta have a good showing. Things have to start turning around in terms of the results and defending. I’m looking forward to Ayala hopefully starting in place of Chara, and Evander being back.
Bravo was a goddamn beast out there. Miller was quite good too. I thought Williamson was good when he got the ball, but wasn’t involved enough. There were many times where he faked going one way and then went the other way, opening up the defense. Unfortunately, he gave the ball to Mosquera and Antony a lot, and they just lost the ball constantly. I feel like I’m one of three people who thought Moreno played well, and I hope he can keep producing, because when he’s in form it brings a different dynamic to the offense. Two goals in two games on the road is a good place to start. But we need to see improvement, not bursts of form… that goes for the entire team. The good is not consistent enough
We are very lucky that wasn't 4-2 or 5-2.
But, as the announcers said, the Timbers have some bewildering paradoxical potential despite all the mistakes and ineptitude.
I was almost gave up watching at that first own goal but came back, inevitably, to an ultimately disappointing but still entertaining match.
That's the thing - to me it's not bewildering. The Timbers are not set up defensively to maximize their abilities. Phil/Liam are trying to make them play a way in which they are not capable, and we can all see that it's not working. Except the two of them.
What’s the change you would make defensively? And then how would that change dictate offensively what we do? Mosquera had a ROUGH game yesterday. But the pieces were in the right place. I mean the last goal? He hits it off the frame and in, kind of a perfect shot. So for all our “ineptitude” it is still taking a hell of an effort to beat us. The last time I remember an early season like this with such tantalizing potential? 2015.
Ditch the high defensive line, ASAP. The Timbers don't have the speed to play a high press. Just look, again, at that first LAFC goal, the Miller OG. The defensive line was soooooo high, they had absolutely zero chance of getting back to cover once the LAFC pass broke the line. And they play that high up far too often.
I honestly don't think the Timbers need to change too much offensively, and I don't think there's too much that needs to shift as far as a transition game. Just play a lower block, recognizing that for all the strengths the Timbers have as defenders, speed is not one of them. They don't need to "park the bus", or whatever cliche is cool at the moment; just back that high defensive line up about 5-6 yards and things will improve dramatically, because the back line won't have to be as frantic or as panicked as they are now when they inevitably have to chase things and have no idea how to.
That is seemingly what leads to a lot of the forehead-slappingly bad moments we've seen so far this season, when they get pulled out of their high line and have to scramble to cover and they end up clueless.
I'm on board with your analysis and plan for the D. I don't usually listen to post game interviews with the manager so I don't know if anyone ever poses a question to him about why he continues to use the high line when it clearly isn't working and he doesn't have the players to deploy with that formation?
I would trade or sell Mosquera. Also trade McGraw and K. Miller (or move them to backups). Would not spend DP money in back, but would bring in competent communicative defenders and hopefully one who can get up field similarly to Mosquera but also defend.
These guys are not going to get better, they all have fatal flaws which collectively are a total disaster for cohesive defense.
You can drop the high line all day long, but it will still be individual f ups even when we are deeper. It isn't like we are constantly getting scored on by guys running free from midfield in behind, we are getting scored on because we have defenders who either cannot identify or execute their role in defending. All of these guys have been pros for years, they shouldn't look like a bunch of buddies who got together for a match on the weekend and nobody wanted to play on the back line.
You would trade Kamal Miller, who has played in Portland for all of 10 games and is one of the best defenders on the team, and arguably one of the better defenders in the league in the last couple seasons? Really?
I’m surprised you say that about Kamal Miller. I think he was the best timber on the field in the first half. He was the main defender keeping them from scoring.
I can understand your thought on the high line. And when we have miller out wide I agree. Hence why lafc changed sides in the second half. When it is Mosquera out wide though I would argue we do have the speed. The problem isn’t where we start. The problem is unmarked runners. He is young. What can the coaches do to get him moving towards the ball? Or maybe it just isn’t in his makeup. In basketball some guys will dive on the floor for a loose ball and some will not. No amount of coaching changes that desire.
My expectations for this season and this squad were always low, but were also higher than last season. This roster is a mess, albeit an improving mess over this time last year. Ned's done good work but there's more to do, for sure.
When they announced Neville as the coach, I gave up hoping for a radical improvement, even with the roster the team has; he's not a good enough coach to do that. With Neville as coach, my expectation shifted to merely wanting the Timbers to become a more cohesive squad, and to being a somewhat disciplined unit that might play with purpose this season, with an eye towards becoming a real contender again in 2025.
What we've seen, though, is still a mess. On the offensive/attacking side of things, we've seen some progress, for sure, and there has been some real signs of "this could be something great" here and there. On defense, and in transition, though? It's been a mess, all season, and the most disappointing thing to me is the issues from the beginning of the season haven't really gotten any better, now 10 games in.
That tells me It's both a roster problem AND a coaching problem, honestly. I never expected the 2024 Timbers to go from missing the playoffs last year to being Supporters' Shield contenders; I did expect them to show progress week over week towards being a more solid, maybe mid-table or slightly better team. And I'm just not seeing that.
We have a DP slot and need a dominant 6/8. I'd start there. (For the near term, an upgrade at that position would help paper over our defensive woes, especially since Chara doesn't have the legs he once did. For the long term, that's a position we need shored-up to build a team around. IMHO, neither Paredes or Ayala are that player. We need to think 'splash' signing here.)
"Instead I am wondering about the vision for the club and how Ned/Phil plan to get there?"
I don't know that a vision such as that has ever really been articulated, and I would also love to hear one. I would love to hear a statement of ambition, of "we want to be (whatever goal they want to achieve)". But...nothing.
"Is the slide in fan stadium experience indicative of how Timbers do business and treat players now?"
I don't think that's exclusive to the Timbers, honestly. I think all sports have gone through the exercise of seeing what a post-COVID sports world looks like, and what they see is...people still showing up no matter what, now almost more than at any time in the last 10 years or so.
Which, to be blunt, gives them license to do whatever they want to do, business-wise. They know they've got a business model that works, so they don't really even need to pay more than cursory lip service to "we love our fans!!!!" any more, they way they used to. Because butts still fill seats, and because eyeballs still watch streams.
"What can Davis do on her side of things to help facilitate a winning culture?"
If she is truly calling the shots (and I have my doubts, despite MP saying he's "stepped aside"), she can keep giving Ned the resources - monetary, scouting, and analytics - to build the team he wants to build. We've seen the start of this in the last couple windows, and yet the Timbers are at a point in their playing evolution where they're being left in the dust by the newer and more well-resourced teams in the league.
To keep up with those teams is Portland's challenge; there's no market-sized based reason they can't, it's just a question of whether MP will write the checks (I know nobody writes checks in 2024, but the metaphor persists) to support the infrastructure needed to build that level of winning.