I did the same thing but had to change before I posted when Evander had his miracle goal.
Watching the replay, it's shocking how much NYCFC was ball-watching at the end. Yes, I was expecting the whistle to blow at anytime during the runup to the game winner, but you really have to play to the whistle.
When Mosquera passed to Evander, not a singe NYCFC player moved toward him. He was wide open. Granted, he didn't hesitate to let loose his canon of a leg. What a turnaround.
Last minute wins are fun, but "Evander bails the Timbers out at the death with a wonderstrike" is not a repeatable skill. This game was a dirge for the most part, and Phil still has a whole lot of work to do to make this team a cohesive unit.
I'll take the points, on to the next, but this was a largely forgettable game, bordering on unwatchable for large stretches, and just showed how much work there still is to be done on this squad.
Something I like about Neville is that he's a realist , at least in most comments he reflects that PTFC is not out of the woods and has a lot of work to do to get to where he wants to see them.
15 minutes into the match: OMG, WTF has happened? They are completely outclassed. Why am I watching? I love me some Zac McGraw, and he's getting totally toasted.
Halftime: well thank goodness they held on by the skin of their teeth.
15 minutes into the second half: Timbers are playing way better, but why is Evander making back passes? Turn and go, dude. That's why your getting the big bucks.
30 minutes into second half: NYFC has gone to sleep, but looks like we won't break through and it will be another depressing road loss.
Wait, Mosquera makes a great turn, a great cross, and boom Antony roofs it to level the match! Kaboom! Now, don't let up a stupid second goal. 7 minutes of stoppage time? hold on boys, hold on.
OMG, WTF, did that go in? Was that really a goal? AMAZING!!!! OK, Stumptown Steve, STFU about Evander.
BTW, Apple TV, please stop showing the statistics about % chance of win/draw/lose. Those stats sure don't apply to the Timbers.
If Phil Neville's first goal was to change the culture, looks to me like he's started out well. Keep it up, coaching staff and team.
What is up with those stats anyhow? By whose metrics? And, how relevant? Especially in soccer, when a single goal can come out of nowhere and completely change everything.
I would prefer the stats to stick to possession, passes completed, shots on goal, etc., maybe some relevant historical statistics, but none of this fortune telling. It just takes up space on the screen.
I'd go so far as to say that sports broadcasting is not in Apple's wheelhouse. By- default spoilers , commentators often chatting over crucial plays, virtually no post match discussion, and their stupid Messi fixation (understandable but at this point starting to get dull), etc... I just hope they get better if they're going to be the only game in town.
I will forgive Apple so, so much if it means I can watch every game in one place for a reasonable price. In most leagues to follow a team you have to hunt for their games over three subscription services and two cable TV channels. It's beyond maddening. It's less frustrating to use pirate streams even if they're shit quality and sometimes get taken down halfway through the game.
I only ever watch Timbers games so it works for me, I'm actually pretty content with it. I wish they'd bundle Thorns games in there as well, that would be perfect.
My main frustration with Apple is that all the games in a time zone kick off at the same time, which has dramatically curtailed the amount of games I can watch. I'm not a big "go back and watch replays" person, if it's not live I'm not really gonna care, so I've gone from watching 3-4 games a weekend (or big chunks of 3-4 games) to maybe one if the Timbers are in Portland (I go to home games) and maybe two if the Timbers are on the road. It's really frustrating.
I don't know the exact data they use, but typically it is historical data across the league. Basically things like "At the start of the game the home team has won x% of games, it has been a draw x% and the away team has won x%" then adjusted for different points throughout the game. It is not meant to be a prediction, rather a look at the odds of something happening historically. So when a team is tied, on the road, in the 97th minute they have a (whatever the stat was at that point) chance of winning. It would have been very small since it is historically a very rare occurance.
I'm also sure every fanbase would say something like "this statistic does not apply to my team" since we always think of ourselves/teams as outliers, but the point of statistics is to draw out information across wide and varied data, so yes they absolutely do apply to the Timbers and every other team as their history is part of the data set.
Win probability isn't "fortune telling" though. I don't know the exact inputs used in the soccer version, but it's some combination of game state, possession, field tilt, and probably a few other game-flow metrics, and I actually find it kind of fun.
It's not like it's on the screen the entire game; they show it a few times per half, and to me, it's a useful supplement to what my eyes are showing me when I watch the game. It's not gospel, it's not replacing what the players are doing, it's just another data point.
They probably won't ever make their math public in any granular way (they make their money off selling this stuff to broadcasters and media - probably including Apple - after all), but here's a decent high-level explanation of how Opta (one of the premier data orgs in world soccer) does it:
I’m glad someone likes it. Every time I see it Han Solo’s voice says “never tell me the odds” in my head. The odds are great until the end and they turn out to be completely wrong.
That's...not how odds work? Evander's last second shot was a complete outlier, which happens every now and again, but that doesn't invalidate the overall premise of win probability. That's why it's called win "probability" and not win "certainty".
If you look at the WP in the moments after Antony's equalizer and before Evander's shot (they tend to show it after every goal), it was at something like 86% favoring a draw. Given the game state at the time, that wasn't invalid! Looking at the xG of Evander's shot, as well, there was no reason to doubt that the most probable outcome of the game was a draw, at the point at which that shot was taken. That was not an easy shot, from that angle or distance, at all.
But Evander hit the hell out of that shot, it went in, my cats freaked out with how much I yelled and screamed, and here we are. That doesn't mean the WP was "wrong" - it just means that this result was in the 14% bucket of probabilities labeled "not draw".
A fascinating game. The first 35 minutes were dreadful, felt like the Timbers at their worst the past few years. But there was an obvious shift after that, Moreno and Antony switched sides and Evander dropped deeper and started getting on the ball more. Any good we did came from him, and we started clawing back momentum. Then the second half... maybe I'm being overly positive, but it was a pretty dominant performance. We didn't create a lot (or anything), but neither did NYCFC, and I guess when juxtaposed with that first half, it felt dominant. We had all the possession... I mean seriously, when was the last time we had 60% possession at the end of the game, much less away from home?? After so many years of this team being allergic to possession, finally it seems we at least have some idea of how to hold on to the ball. I'm probably being overly positive but I really enjoyed seeing us move the ball around in that second half.
We've heard the players and Neville himself say that we're looking to play with the ball more, and I really hope we see more of that and not the team that we saw in the first half here, or the second half vs Colorado, or the last 30 minutes vs DC... it's so hard to get a read on how Neville is doing now. The defense looks really rough, but there are stretches where we play some really nice footy and we're scoring a bunch of goals. Are the rough stretches marks against Neville, or are they leftovers from the Gio era? Because the two sides of this team we've seen are so drastically different from each other, it's really hard to tell. Regardless, we need to shore things up defensively. That might be the worst half of soccer I've seen McGraw ever, he's usually so solid but he got beat way too easily several times. I don't think it was lack of pace that killed him (that didn't help), but rather poor positioning and diving in and getting beat. He wasn't getting help from Mosquera, who was terrible on defense. We were lucky to not be 2 or 3 goals down by half.
What a signing Crepeau has been. Generally decent distribution, but his footwork has been rough so far. Hopefully he can fix that because it might cause us a goal or two down the line. I'll take the tradeoff though because he's saved us so many times already. One of my favorite moments this game was when that one player flopped in front of him, and when he got up, Crepeau held him and made sure he turned around so Crepeau could tell him what a knob he is. Crepeau has what this team has been missing for awhile: personality. He just feels like a big time player. Speaking of personality and big time players, Evander is that guy. I thought he had a really solid game. And keep in mind, this is him coming back from an injury and going a full 90 for the first time. Neville said he was only meant to go 60 minutes, but he didn't want to come off and looked hungry. I love hearing that. I can't wait to see him play off of Cabecita, because Asprilla was terrible at the 9 (I love him, but man, he lost the ball every time... 5/13 accurate passes according to FotMob).
At the end of the day, this team had an awful first half, but fought back and got a win on the road in tough conditions on a terrible field. Was part of that NYCFC taking their foot off the gas and shooting themselves in the foot? Yes. But we had two away wins last year. This is a really big three points on the road for a team that usually struggles this time of year. To Houston we go!
great comments. I think Phil is doing wonders. He's getting the team to grow, and there is a learning curve, and there was a lot of growth in this game. He is demanding that they play with the ball. It basically took Evander to drop deeper - what a masterclass from him today - I don't think he lost a ball once - once he got on the ball.
Yeah, I'm not sure "doing wonders" is a phrase I'd use to describe Phil's coaching at this point. I don't know that I actually could describe his coaching, one way or the other. This is still a wildly inconsistent team that is a work in progress. I see some flashes of decent play, but overall it's far too early (at least for me) to assess how Phil's coaching is doing, especially on the heels of Saturday - after all, had Evander's shot not gone in, we'd all be just sighing a sigh of relief that the Timbers stole a single point which the Timbers overall barely deserved.
I'm not souring on Phil - it's only been three games - but I'm also not seeing the growth and change that you're seeing in the team as a whole. I hope I do, I hope he can get the team to play better than I've seen in the last couple outings, because what I saw Saturday was...not encouraging, for the most part.
On the surface, he's getting results, without a 9 and only one dp for one game. I think there is a real concious effort to get players to play a certain way - with the ball - and that there is a learning curve that goes along with that, so it may not look like a finished product yet, but I think it will.
I am hearing that any manager needs 3 transfer windows to achieve real results, and we aren't through Neville's first. He isn't a wizard. Needs time to build the squad. Let's see how it works out with Cabecita
Evander simply needs to be on the ball more. I'm not sure what it is, but he doesn't do it near enough. I'm not expecting him to be the only one to have the ball, but I would love to see him make 2-3 runs per half just to put pressure on the defense.
As for Neville, the jury is out for me. Its early in the season and we are seeing a lot of the Timbers from the past two years. That is to be expected since this is really the same team as last year. Hopefully we start seeing more of the second half road team matched with the first half home team. We have a difficult stretch coming up that will be a better test of where this team is. I will say it is really nice to get some early wins this year.
Once he dropped deeper he got on the ball. He's said it himself that the 10 role is new to him. He's a facilitator by nature and not a make a run player. New York, though, started swarming him later in the second half to get him off the ball. I'll be interested to see how Phil moves him around a bit to keep teams guessing.
I get the facilitator comment, but I still think he needs to develop the attacking mentality. Its the perfect time for him to work on it, because I don't know how many defensive players can really knock him off the ball in MLS. Good things happen when Evander, Moreno and JDM are moving forward together, and I would like to see more of it.
In addition, I would like to see him demand the ball when things are not going well for the Timbers. That first half was difficult to watch because we simply kept giving up the ball. Evander and Williamson are the two players who can put a stop to those periods,, and the recognition needs to happen earlier.
I've been a fan of Evander, and these are the things I think can bring him to the next level. I'm looking at him with a more critical eye this year, because he should be better prepared for what MLS has. If he can take that next step it will bring a lot of dividends to the Timbers and himself.
I'm not sure why he didn't get on the ball earlier, but once he did, it was basically game over for New York. They got the will beat out of them over the course of the game. Maybe that's something they work out next game.
He's definitely an attacker, once he gets in the final third. He just takes what the defense gives him.
True dat. I'm amazed that MLS is still stuck fifty years later playing in arrangements like this. There was a trench-like divot that ran diagonally about 20 yards near one goal. To be honest, my ultimate frisbee pickup league wouldn't play on a field like that, to avoid turning ankles. How can MLS get insurance on it, with professional athletes?
I'm amazed that we are still stuck a hundred years ago in the women's game. The country's best soccer athletes playing in standing water, the most popular women's team in the USA not having their own soccer ground, dressing room, or even their own freakin website...
They've been playing there for 10 years. They just announced plans to build their own stadium out in Queens, in what is currently a bunch of Citi Field parking lots; construction is due to start later this year or early next, I think.
It was very reminiscent of the USL days of the Timbers, where some of the fields had complete dirt infields, remains of pitcher's mounds, outfield gravel actually on the pitch, and other fields that had dramatic pointyball crowns.
It's nice that MLS doesn't allow that kind of thing and make you sort out your stadium situation before they'll let you into the league, right?
No, I think they use temporary sod. It's not a perfect solution by any means, and I don't think anyone involved has ever really been happy about it, but one of NYCFC's main tenets is, since they're called "NYC" FC, that they want to be in and of NYC, and not in NJ like the Red Bulls (not to mention the Giants/Jets).
I am in no way defending NYCFC here, but the reason they've stuck it out at Yankee Stadium this long is that it's reeeeeeeeeeeeeeally hard to find land to build on in NYC - they've tried to find a permanent home somewhere in the five boroughs since their inception, to no great success until just recently. They originally found and tried to get a site not far away from Yankee Stadium, but that fell through for a myriad of reasons, and it's taken them quite a while to find this site in Queens and get it all bought/zoned and ready to the point where they can start building.
To be fair, your ultimate frisbee league is probably riddled with OLD guys where turning an ankle is extremely high risk on concrete, or am I deflecting?
Things can be two things. It is both true that my league is full of old farts, and players hate fields that have injury written all over them. The risks of a 40 game season are already high.
I definitely prefer Cabecita to Bertrame. He's only 30, and the guy has a huge brand. Every shot he takes it bends the net back about five feet. The guy is saucy. You get two years out of him and then see what happens.
I'm sure this guy's good, but I guess my main hesitation is in that whole "you get two years out of him" part of the story.
I'd rather they commit DP money to someone younger for longer, if possible; I know the Timbers need a 9 now, but if waiting till summer means that getting a younger more promising 9 from somewhere that maybe isn't one of the three countries the Timbers seem only ever capable of scouting players from, and looking elsewhere to find that level of young talent, is possible, I'm OK with waiting.
EDIT: If he really only costs $5M, I'm not nearly as opposed to this signing. I'd still prefer someone younger, but that's not the worst.
I will give them credit for having a contingency plan here. If they aren't convinced that Cabecita is as good as Berterame, then getting him here when the preferred option didn't work out was solid planning. And two years isn't a huge investment if we don't see the quality that we would want to see.
As for waiting, it just isn't a good idea right now since we are really hurting on the depth issue. Since we were good with waiting for Berterame, we need to finalize the Cabecita signing since we only have the one DP right now. If we had two DPs, perhaps waiting on the thrid would have made sense but we were not prepared coming into the season.
yeah, that's true - it's a far cry from the GW days of "I'm going to call the two contacts I know and see who's available and if it's not a position of need, I'm going to buy anyway". And I do think that he'll be good here, for sure. I'm just reflexively ageist where big dollar signings are involved...hahaha
I’m glad they are putting some effort to filling the void. I’ve always been impressed when I’ve watched him, but haven’t seen him enough to know he’ll do great in this league. We need a 9 and hopefully he is better than the two DP’s that left
It looks like Berterame needed more time to qualify for the Mexican national team, and so couldn't transfer this early anyways.
Maybe he'll still be a prospect when the summer transfer window rolls around.
With Cabecita, who I think has been a prospect for a couple of months, I get the idea that we get our striker / winger for the time being, maybe he'll be amazing, who knows, but there's still lots of horse trading to be done in the season.
And he's def gonna cost a lot less than Berterame.
I didn't turn this game on until the second half due to the Arsenal game so I thought the game was great. ;) There are still holes in this team. I have to say I don't remember Zac McGraw being so damn slow last year. On the other hand, I'm amazed at how well Cristian Paredes still is. He's been a darn good servant to this club for quite a while. Still be glad to see Williamson back. Both Arsenal and Timbers with late, late winners. I need a drink.
I still think we would have won that MLS Cup final against NYCFC if Paredes had played. He was our midfield connector but he had some kind of knock and didn't play.
Yeah, I am going to comment on Paredes later when the milan game is over. It will probably change your mind about him. At this point I think it is time to put ayala through his hard knocks now, because Paredes has been bad.
I've always been a paredes supporter, but he's not really playing well. Only when the game opens up does he seem to do ok. His possession is not up to snuff. I hope Phil works with him and he shows some growth.
1. Timbers grew into the game (painfully). Once Evander dropped deeper and started facilitating, the whole game calmed down. NYCFC ran out of gas after 25 -30 minutes and the Timbers started dominating the ball.
2. We need a 9 bad.
3. Evander is amazing. This guy is way ahead of the league. He's an eight.
4. Just get the ball to Evander.
5. Very entertaining team. Phil is getting this team to grow.
6. A deserved win. Played to the end. They beat out the will of the Pigeons.
Looks like we will be losing Crepeau and K. Miller to the Canada national team for upcoming qualifiers. At least we will have Zack to pair with Zup and they have a lot of experience together from last year. I was afraid we might lose all 3...
and for once I'm not worried about the dropoff from starting keeper to backup! Pantemis can absolutely do the job in Crepeau's absence, and Zup isn't a dropoff either, he brings speed that Kamal doesn't have.
It's just nice to be the team that gets the winner at the death, rather than another heartbreaking loss or draw. Uncredited motm - Parades. Motm - Max. Area to be proud, pressing NYC through the 2nd half. Areas for concern... Phil, you're a fullback. Help that backline. Thank heavens for? Offsides strikers.
Paredes has one of the lowest average per game ratings at 6.8. Miller is the only other regular starter to have the same rating. The 3 under them are the lowest. They are the guys coming off the bench in ayala, zuparic and Nathan.
The more concerning part, especially in the last game (where he had the lowest player rating of 6.5 based on performance metrics) were his defensive numbers were not good. 0 clearances. 0 blocked shots. 0 interceptions. 2 tackles. 2 dribbled past. He was good in aeriel duels with 3/3 but that's about it. His ground duels were 2/7. Even Evander was 7/10 on ground duals and he was more advanced and playing as a playmaker. His passing accuracy was 44/55. His possession lost was also at 13. His positioning defensively has not been good and it has made it easy for defenders to pass through any pressure and out of trouble. If you look at the stats, a majority of midfield defensive responsibility has fallen on chara. Meaning any ability to win back balls or close passing lanes comes from chara. You can't control the game or possession when 2 of the 3 midfielders you have don't play defense particularly well, and Paredes has been the worst of the 2.
Even Antony has over all higher defensive numbers than Paredes over these 3 games.
It is time to give ayala a chance to win the spot because Paredes isn't earning it.
I'm beginning to think Paredes defensive numbers were good through the past few seasons because we were on defense so much. We had the ball a lot this past game so maybe his defensive numbers are down. I don't really question his defense; you can always count on him, but when Evander is controlling things deeper (as an 8) you really only need one of Paredes or Chara and you could add another more offensive piece. I'm definitely keen to see Ayala this season, and we'll see it. I've mentioned this before but bring in Moreno to midfield as an eight along with Evander and it would be cool to see Ayala in that three-man midfield.
I think we have a lot of good options overall, depending on fitness and game schedules etc.
Another tail of two halves for the Timbers. The team simply wasn't ready to play at the beginning and were lucky to only be down a goal at half. It was a very different story in the second half, but it certainly wasn't a dominant performance. It is great the team is taking advantage of the early schedule, because I don't feel they are where they need to be right now,
What was up with McGraw? I really like him but he was beaten like a drum in this game. I don't ever remember players going by him like he wasn't there before. I was shocked that he wasn't subbed off. It was nice to see Antony make a play (two actually) at the end, but he also had a rough game. Lets hope he continues to grow because he needs some work as well.
The simulation was pretty bad, but then again it helped us out in the end. Without it the game gets called before Evander gets that last shot off. From that viewpoint, NYCFC got what they deserved.
Mijatović gets what he deserves and so does the team. There was another one where the player faked getting hit in the face, I think, and actually Ross Smith called him out on it on the broadcast. Loved that!
One of the unfortunate side effects of the referee lockout is that MLS was set to introduce a couple new rules at the start of this season to cut down on time wasting, one of which also would have cut down on injury faking as well.
There was going to be a rule that "If a player with a suspected injury is on the ground for more than 15 seconds, referees will stop play so that the player can be removed from the field and evaluated, at which point they will remain off the field for a minimum of two minutes following treatment. There are a few exceptions, including head injuries, goalkeeper injuries, serious medical events, and fouls resulting in cards as those may need more time on the pitch."
It's unclear whether that will become a rule when the real refs eventually come back to work this season, or whether it will now wait until the beginning of next season, but this will really help when it eventually comes into being.
Yes, good point. In the DC game Hererra went down for about two minutes or more in stoppage time (huge injury fake and time wasting) and had to go off the field, but then the ref let him back on practically immediately. I thought he would be off for that minimum time.
I don’t think anything is “up” with McGraw necessarily, he just had a hard time with Bakrar. Bad day at the office. He was fine in the second half, it was an entire team “hey what the hell is going on” performance in that first 30 minutes, then it got better. He made some good clearances
3 games into the season might be too early to start evaluating coach Neville but here are a couple of early thoughts.
If I knew we would start the season with 7 points I would have been happy with that so a bonus for success. Coach Neville has had to manage a lineup without 3 starters and a thin bench so bonus for that. Our offense has scored goals, even though the XG was low, so bonus for that. Watching games has been mostly fun but first half against NYCFC and second half against DC were painful to see. So far I would say we are a step up from Gio but that DC’s new coach was a better choice than ours. With a new coach I always worry about taking a step backwards and we didn’t do that. But I don’t think it was the leap forward that we were hoping for either. Again, it is early and I will reserve judgment for when the roster is complete.
I was with you until you thought the D.C. coach was a better choice.
The thing I like about Phil is that he seems to be trying to improve the individual player within the system. And by doing so, the team will be better. He's making soccer players, and not trying to fit them into a system. I think the DC coach is a system coach, where it doesn't matter about the players, it just matters how they play within the system. I predict DC will peter out in about two to three months.
Agreed on the DC coach. His system + Benteke will still probably be good enough to make it back to the playoffs. But DC's press was not nearly as effective today against Cincy, and its in large part because of the refs not allowing the same level of physicality that we saw.
My thought on Lesesne is he has a group without a lot of talent and has them playing above the sum of their parts. The players knew their role and executed well IMO. But it is early and maybe the wheels fall off in time. Also with a long season Neville’s building and development may pay off in the long run. Like I said, it is early so not time for a conclusion yet. But I am interested to hear everyone’s thoughts on the coach so far.
Better check that title 🤣
Someone started writing this in the 96th minute. 🤣
I did the same thing but had to change before I posted when Evander had his miracle goal.
Watching the replay, it's shocking how much NYCFC was ball-watching at the end. Yes, I was expecting the whistle to blow at anytime during the runup to the game winner, but you really have to play to the whistle.
When Mosquera passed to Evander, not a singe NYCFC player moved toward him. He was wide open. Granted, he didn't hesitate to let loose his canon of a leg. What a turnaround.
Antony not Mosquera
Thanks for the correction. Victory at the death pumped too much adrenaline to my brain.
Last minute wins are fun, but "Evander bails the Timbers out at the death with a wonderstrike" is not a repeatable skill. This game was a dirge for the most part, and Phil still has a whole lot of work to do to make this team a cohesive unit.
I'll take the points, on to the next, but this was a largely forgettable game, bordering on unwatchable for large stretches, and just showed how much work there still is to be done on this squad.
Something I like about Neville is that he's a realist , at least in most comments he reflects that PTFC is not out of the woods and has a lot of work to do to get to where he wants to see them.
Agree. I really like that about him too. A breath of fresh air compared to our former coaches.
15 minutes into the match: OMG, WTF has happened? They are completely outclassed. Why am I watching? I love me some Zac McGraw, and he's getting totally toasted.
Halftime: well thank goodness they held on by the skin of their teeth.
15 minutes into the second half: Timbers are playing way better, but why is Evander making back passes? Turn and go, dude. That's why your getting the big bucks.
30 minutes into second half: NYFC has gone to sleep, but looks like we won't break through and it will be another depressing road loss.
Wait, Mosquera makes a great turn, a great cross, and boom Antony roofs it to level the match! Kaboom! Now, don't let up a stupid second goal. 7 minutes of stoppage time? hold on boys, hold on.
OMG, WTF, did that go in? Was that really a goal? AMAZING!!!! OK, Stumptown Steve, STFU about Evander.
BTW, Apple TV, please stop showing the statistics about % chance of win/draw/lose. Those stats sure don't apply to the Timbers.
If Phil Neville's first goal was to change the culture, looks to me like he's started out well. Keep it up, coaching staff and team.
What is up with those stats anyhow? By whose metrics? And, how relevant? Especially in soccer, when a single goal can come out of nowhere and completely change everything.
I would prefer the stats to stick to possession, passes completed, shots on goal, etc., maybe some relevant historical statistics, but none of this fortune telling. It just takes up space on the screen.
I'd go so far as to say that sports broadcasting is not in Apple's wheelhouse. By- default spoilers , commentators often chatting over crucial plays, virtually no post match discussion, and their stupid Messi fixation (understandable but at this point starting to get dull), etc... I just hope they get better if they're going to be the only game in town.
I will forgive Apple so, so much if it means I can watch every game in one place for a reasonable price. In most leagues to follow a team you have to hunt for their games over three subscription services and two cable TV channels. It's beyond maddening. It's less frustrating to use pirate streams even if they're shit quality and sometimes get taken down halfway through the game.
So true. I've counted 7 different broadcasters for the Thorns this season. It's just ridiculous.
It is SO RIDICULOUS. WTF can't they figure out a single broadcast entity and roll with it?
On a separate but similar note did anyone see the standing water on the pitch at the USWNT v Canada game?
I really hope this sub standard BS comes to an end soon, it's infuriating.
I only ever watch Timbers games so it works for me, I'm actually pretty content with it. I wish they'd bundle Thorns games in there as well, that would be perfect.
My main frustration with Apple is that all the games in a time zone kick off at the same time, which has dramatically curtailed the amount of games I can watch. I'm not a big "go back and watch replays" person, if it's not live I'm not really gonna care, so I've gone from watching 3-4 games a weekend (or big chunks of 3-4 games) to maybe one if the Timbers are in Portland (I go to home games) and maybe two if the Timbers are on the road. It's really frustrating.
One word: gambling.
It’s based on historical stats, just like you asked for
But what historical statistics? And how would they apply to the exact conditions of this particular game, at any given point and time?
I don't know the exact data they use, but typically it is historical data across the league. Basically things like "At the start of the game the home team has won x% of games, it has been a draw x% and the away team has won x%" then adjusted for different points throughout the game. It is not meant to be a prediction, rather a look at the odds of something happening historically. So when a team is tied, on the road, in the 97th minute they have a (whatever the stat was at that point) chance of winning. It would have been very small since it is historically a very rare occurance.
I'm also sure every fanbase would say something like "this statistic does not apply to my team" since we always think of ourselves/teams as outliers, but the point of statistics is to draw out information across wide and varied data, so yes they absolutely do apply to the Timbers and every other team as their history is part of the data set.
They do the same in football
Gridiron football has totally different dynamics though...
Win probability isn't "fortune telling" though. I don't know the exact inputs used in the soccer version, but it's some combination of game state, possession, field tilt, and probably a few other game-flow metrics, and I actually find it kind of fun.
It's not like it's on the screen the entire game; they show it a few times per half, and to me, it's a useful supplement to what my eyes are showing me when I watch the game. It's not gospel, it's not replacing what the players are doing, it's just another data point.
I'm trying to figure out exactly how Apple computes those probabilities.
They probably won't ever make their math public in any granular way (they make their money off selling this stuff to broadcasters and media - probably including Apple - after all), but here's a decent high-level explanation of how Opta (one of the premier data orgs in world soccer) does it:
https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/11/live-win-probability/
I’m glad someone likes it. Every time I see it Han Solo’s voice says “never tell me the odds” in my head. The odds are great until the end and they turn out to be completely wrong.
That's...not how odds work? Evander's last second shot was a complete outlier, which happens every now and again, but that doesn't invalidate the overall premise of win probability. That's why it's called win "probability" and not win "certainty".
If you look at the WP in the moments after Antony's equalizer and before Evander's shot (they tend to show it after every goal), it was at something like 86% favoring a draw. Given the game state at the time, that wasn't invalid! Looking at the xG of Evander's shot, as well, there was no reason to doubt that the most probable outcome of the game was a draw, at the point at which that shot was taken. That was not an easy shot, from that angle or distance, at all.
But Evander hit the hell out of that shot, it went in, my cats freaked out with how much I yelled and screamed, and here we are. That doesn't mean the WP was "wrong" - it just means that this result was in the 14% bucket of probabilities labeled "not draw".
A fascinating game. The first 35 minutes were dreadful, felt like the Timbers at their worst the past few years. But there was an obvious shift after that, Moreno and Antony switched sides and Evander dropped deeper and started getting on the ball more. Any good we did came from him, and we started clawing back momentum. Then the second half... maybe I'm being overly positive, but it was a pretty dominant performance. We didn't create a lot (or anything), but neither did NYCFC, and I guess when juxtaposed with that first half, it felt dominant. We had all the possession... I mean seriously, when was the last time we had 60% possession at the end of the game, much less away from home?? After so many years of this team being allergic to possession, finally it seems we at least have some idea of how to hold on to the ball. I'm probably being overly positive but I really enjoyed seeing us move the ball around in that second half.
We've heard the players and Neville himself say that we're looking to play with the ball more, and I really hope we see more of that and not the team that we saw in the first half here, or the second half vs Colorado, or the last 30 minutes vs DC... it's so hard to get a read on how Neville is doing now. The defense looks really rough, but there are stretches where we play some really nice footy and we're scoring a bunch of goals. Are the rough stretches marks against Neville, or are they leftovers from the Gio era? Because the two sides of this team we've seen are so drastically different from each other, it's really hard to tell. Regardless, we need to shore things up defensively. That might be the worst half of soccer I've seen McGraw ever, he's usually so solid but he got beat way too easily several times. I don't think it was lack of pace that killed him (that didn't help), but rather poor positioning and diving in and getting beat. He wasn't getting help from Mosquera, who was terrible on defense. We were lucky to not be 2 or 3 goals down by half.
What a signing Crepeau has been. Generally decent distribution, but his footwork has been rough so far. Hopefully he can fix that because it might cause us a goal or two down the line. I'll take the tradeoff though because he's saved us so many times already. One of my favorite moments this game was when that one player flopped in front of him, and when he got up, Crepeau held him and made sure he turned around so Crepeau could tell him what a knob he is. Crepeau has what this team has been missing for awhile: personality. He just feels like a big time player. Speaking of personality and big time players, Evander is that guy. I thought he had a really solid game. And keep in mind, this is him coming back from an injury and going a full 90 for the first time. Neville said he was only meant to go 60 minutes, but he didn't want to come off and looked hungry. I love hearing that. I can't wait to see him play off of Cabecita, because Asprilla was terrible at the 9 (I love him, but man, he lost the ball every time... 5/13 accurate passes according to FotMob).
At the end of the day, this team had an awful first half, but fought back and got a win on the road in tough conditions on a terrible field. Was part of that NYCFC taking their foot off the gas and shooting themselves in the foot? Yes. But we had two away wins last year. This is a really big three points on the road for a team that usually struggles this time of year. To Houston we go!
great comments. I think Phil is doing wonders. He's getting the team to grow, and there is a learning curve, and there was a lot of growth in this game. He is demanding that they play with the ball. It basically took Evander to drop deeper - what a masterclass from him today - I don't think he lost a ball once - once he got on the ball.
Yeah, I'm not sure "doing wonders" is a phrase I'd use to describe Phil's coaching at this point. I don't know that I actually could describe his coaching, one way or the other. This is still a wildly inconsistent team that is a work in progress. I see some flashes of decent play, but overall it's far too early (at least for me) to assess how Phil's coaching is doing, especially on the heels of Saturday - after all, had Evander's shot not gone in, we'd all be just sighing a sigh of relief that the Timbers stole a single point which the Timbers overall barely deserved.
I'm not souring on Phil - it's only been three games - but I'm also not seeing the growth and change that you're seeing in the team as a whole. I hope I do, I hope he can get the team to play better than I've seen in the last couple outings, because what I saw Saturday was...not encouraging, for the most part.
On the surface, he's getting results, without a 9 and only one dp for one game. I think there is a real concious effort to get players to play a certain way - with the ball - and that there is a learning curve that goes along with that, so it may not look like a finished product yet, but I think it will.
I am hearing that any manager needs 3 transfer windows to achieve real results, and we aren't through Neville's first. He isn't a wizard. Needs time to build the squad. Let's see how it works out with Cabecita
Evander simply needs to be on the ball more. I'm not sure what it is, but he doesn't do it near enough. I'm not expecting him to be the only one to have the ball, but I would love to see him make 2-3 runs per half just to put pressure on the defense.
As for Neville, the jury is out for me. Its early in the season and we are seeing a lot of the Timbers from the past two years. That is to be expected since this is really the same team as last year. Hopefully we start seeing more of the second half road team matched with the first half home team. We have a difficult stretch coming up that will be a better test of where this team is. I will say it is really nice to get some early wins this year.
Once he dropped deeper he got on the ball. He's said it himself that the 10 role is new to him. He's a facilitator by nature and not a make a run player. New York, though, started swarming him later in the second half to get him off the ball. I'll be interested to see how Phil moves him around a bit to keep teams guessing.
I get the facilitator comment, but I still think he needs to develop the attacking mentality. Its the perfect time for him to work on it, because I don't know how many defensive players can really knock him off the ball in MLS. Good things happen when Evander, Moreno and JDM are moving forward together, and I would like to see more of it.
In addition, I would like to see him demand the ball when things are not going well for the Timbers. That first half was difficult to watch because we simply kept giving up the ball. Evander and Williamson are the two players who can put a stop to those periods,, and the recognition needs to happen earlier.
I've been a fan of Evander, and these are the things I think can bring him to the next level. I'm looking at him with a more critical eye this year, because he should be better prepared for what MLS has. If he can take that next step it will bring a lot of dividends to the Timbers and himself.
I'm not sure why he didn't get on the ball earlier, but once he did, it was basically game over for New York. They got the will beat out of them over the course of the game. Maybe that's something they work out next game.
He's definitely an attacker, once he gets in the final third. He just takes what the defense gives him.
so we're just leaving the article title at 1-1, huh?
Still in disbelief
Lol... Looks like it!
What a crap field. First 30 min I thought I was watching a game at Oregon City Indoor.
True dat. I'm amazed that MLS is still stuck fifty years later playing in arrangements like this. There was a trench-like divot that ran diagonally about 20 yards near one goal. To be honest, my ultimate frisbee pickup league wouldn't play on a field like that, to avoid turning ankles. How can MLS get insurance on it, with professional athletes?
I'm amazed that we are still stuck a hundred years ago in the women's game. The country's best soccer athletes playing in standing water, the most popular women's team in the USA not having their own soccer ground, dressing room, or even their own freakin website...
Yeah that field looked really bad. Does NYCFC always have to play on that or was it a special event before baseball starts?
They've been playing there for 10 years. They just announced plans to build their own stadium out in Queens, in what is currently a bunch of Citi Field parking lots; construction is due to start later this year or early next, I think.
So do they just paint the infield dirt? Either way, pretty low budget.
It was very reminiscent of the USL days of the Timbers, where some of the fields had complete dirt infields, remains of pitcher's mounds, outfield gravel actually on the pitch, and other fields that had dramatic pointyball crowns.
It's nice that MLS doesn't allow that kind of thing and make you sort out your stadium situation before they'll let you into the league, right?
No, I think they use temporary sod. It's not a perfect solution by any means, and I don't think anyone involved has ever really been happy about it, but one of NYCFC's main tenets is, since they're called "NYC" FC, that they want to be in and of NYC, and not in NJ like the Red Bulls (not to mention the Giants/Jets).
I am in no way defending NYCFC here, but the reason they've stuck it out at Yankee Stadium this long is that it's reeeeeeeeeeeeeeally hard to find land to build on in NYC - they've tried to find a permanent home somewhere in the five boroughs since their inception, to no great success until just recently. They originally found and tried to get a site not far away from Yankee Stadium, but that fell through for a myriad of reasons, and it's taken them quite a while to find this site in Queens and get it all bought/zoned and ready to the point where they can start building.
To be fair, your ultimate frisbee league is probably riddled with OLD guys where turning an ankle is extremely high risk on concrete, or am I deflecting?
Things can be two things. It is both true that my league is full of old farts, and players hate fields that have injury written all over them. The risks of a 40 game season are already high.
Everyone was ready to settle for a point a piece. Then Evander thinks, "what the hell. They're backing off. I'll have a go." Class!
I didn’t see if this was reported in any threads. It looks like Cabecita
https://theathletic.com/5329143/2024/03/09/portland-timbers-cabecita-jonathan-rodriguez/?source=user_shared_article
Feels like a let-down after flirting with Berterame. Probably an overpay and definitely not a a long-term solution.
I definitely prefer Cabecita to Bertrame. He's only 30, and the guy has a huge brand. Every shot he takes it bends the net back about five feet. The guy is saucy. You get two years out of him and then see what happens.
I'm sure this guy's good, but I guess my main hesitation is in that whole "you get two years out of him" part of the story.
I'd rather they commit DP money to someone younger for longer, if possible; I know the Timbers need a 9 now, but if waiting till summer means that getting a younger more promising 9 from somewhere that maybe isn't one of the three countries the Timbers seem only ever capable of scouting players from, and looking elsewhere to find that level of young talent, is possible, I'm OK with waiting.
EDIT: If he really only costs $5M, I'm not nearly as opposed to this signing. I'd still prefer someone younger, but that's not the worst.
I will give them credit for having a contingency plan here. If they aren't convinced that Cabecita is as good as Berterame, then getting him here when the preferred option didn't work out was solid planning. And two years isn't a huge investment if we don't see the quality that we would want to see.
As for waiting, it just isn't a good idea right now since we are really hurting on the depth issue. Since we were good with waiting for Berterame, we need to finalize the Cabecita signing since we only have the one DP right now. If we had two DPs, perhaps waiting on the thrid would have made sense but we were not prepared coming into the season.
yeah, that's true - it's a far cry from the GW days of "I'm going to call the two contacts I know and see who's available and if it's not a position of need, I'm going to buy anyway". And I do think that he'll be good here, for sure. I'm just reflexively ageist where big dollar signings are involved...hahaha
I’m glad they are putting some effort to filling the void. I’ve always been impressed when I’ve watched him, but haven’t seen him enough to know he’ll do great in this league. We need a 9 and hopefully he is better than the two DP’s that left
It looks like Berterame needed more time to qualify for the Mexican national team, and so couldn't transfer this early anyways.
Maybe he'll still be a prospect when the summer transfer window rolls around.
With Cabecita, who I think has been a prospect for a couple of months, I get the idea that we get our striker / winger for the time being, maybe he'll be amazing, who knows, but there's still lots of horse trading to be done in the season.
And he's def gonna cost a lot less than Berterame.
I'm at the point where the Timbers need to make this happen. Depth is a huge problem right now, and we can't get whomever it is here soon enough.
Looks like it's really happening, the official announcement should come some time today, I would imagine.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C4ZEg4HpWGp/?igsh=bGJnbGExMTBiNjI5
I didn't turn this game on until the second half due to the Arsenal game so I thought the game was great. ;) There are still holes in this team. I have to say I don't remember Zac McGraw being so damn slow last year. On the other hand, I'm amazed at how well Cristian Paredes still is. He's been a darn good servant to this club for quite a while. Still be glad to see Williamson back. Both Arsenal and Timbers with late, late winners. I need a drink.
I still think we would have won that MLS Cup final against NYCFC if Paredes had played. He was our midfield connector but he had some kind of knock and didn't play.
He would have been better than the guy who started who I can't think of his name now, and of course, Blanco was not fully fit.
Yeah, I am going to comment on Paredes later when the milan game is over. It will probably change your mind about him. At this point I think it is time to put ayala through his hard knocks now, because Paredes has been bad.
As a Tottenham supporter I’ll remain silent about Arsenal. But Paredes seems under appreciated. He’s a classic glue-guy. He’s quietly doing good work.
I've always been a paredes supporter, but he's not really playing well. Only when the game opens up does he seem to do ok. His possession is not up to snuff. I hope Phil works with him and he shows some growth.
My son, the Tottenham supporter, doesn't want to talk about Arsenal nowadays either.
Cheers! I get to watch Spurs at 5:00 am . . . er. . . 6:00 am tomorrow. Maybe a late winner?
I hate those games. I'll get up for a 7:00 am game no problem but earlier than that it's a recording for me then scrupulously avoiding any media.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C4ZEg4HpWGp/?igsh=bGJnbGExMTBiNjI5
That's just a random fan account... His instagram is here: https://www.instagram.com/jona_rodriguez21/
Takeaways:
1. Timbers grew into the game (painfully). Once Evander dropped deeper and started facilitating, the whole game calmed down. NYCFC ran out of gas after 25 -30 minutes and the Timbers started dominating the ball.
2. We need a 9 bad.
3. Evander is amazing. This guy is way ahead of the league. He's an eight.
4. Just get the ball to Evander.
5. Very entertaining team. Phil is getting this team to grow.
6. A deserved win. Played to the end. They beat out the will of the Pigeons.
Looks like we will be losing Crepeau and K. Miller to the Canada national team for upcoming qualifiers. At least we will have Zack to pair with Zup and they have a lot of experience together from last year. I was afraid we might lose all 3...
and for once I'm not worried about the dropoff from starting keeper to backup! Pantemis can absolutely do the job in Crepeau's absence, and Zup isn't a dropoff either, he brings speed that Kamal doesn't have.
It's just nice to be the team that gets the winner at the death, rather than another heartbreaking loss or draw. Uncredited motm - Parades. Motm - Max. Area to be proud, pressing NYC through the 2nd half. Areas for concern... Phil, you're a fullback. Help that backline. Thank heavens for? Offsides strikers.
Paredes has one of the lowest average per game ratings at 6.8. Miller is the only other regular starter to have the same rating. The 3 under them are the lowest. They are the guys coming off the bench in ayala, zuparic and Nathan.
The more concerning part, especially in the last game (where he had the lowest player rating of 6.5 based on performance metrics) were his defensive numbers were not good. 0 clearances. 0 blocked shots. 0 interceptions. 2 tackles. 2 dribbled past. He was good in aeriel duels with 3/3 but that's about it. His ground duels were 2/7. Even Evander was 7/10 on ground duals and he was more advanced and playing as a playmaker. His passing accuracy was 44/55. His possession lost was also at 13. His positioning defensively has not been good and it has made it easy for defenders to pass through any pressure and out of trouble. If you look at the stats, a majority of midfield defensive responsibility has fallen on chara. Meaning any ability to win back balls or close passing lanes comes from chara. You can't control the game or possession when 2 of the 3 midfielders you have don't play defense particularly well, and Paredes has been the worst of the 2.
Even Antony has over all higher defensive numbers than Paredes over these 3 games.
It is time to give ayala a chance to win the spot because Paredes isn't earning it.
I'm beginning to think Paredes defensive numbers were good through the past few seasons because we were on defense so much. We had the ball a lot this past game so maybe his defensive numbers are down. I don't really question his defense; you can always count on him, but when Evander is controlling things deeper (as an 8) you really only need one of Paredes or Chara and you could add another more offensive piece. I'm definitely keen to see Ayala this season, and we'll see it. I've mentioned this before but bring in Moreno to midfield as an eight along with Evander and it would be cool to see Ayala in that three-man midfield.
I think we have a lot of good options overall, depending on fitness and game schedules etc.
Paredes
Another tail of two halves for the Timbers. The team simply wasn't ready to play at the beginning and were lucky to only be down a goal at half. It was a very different story in the second half, but it certainly wasn't a dominant performance. It is great the team is taking advantage of the early schedule, because I don't feel they are where they need to be right now,
What was up with McGraw? I really like him but he was beaten like a drum in this game. I don't ever remember players going by him like he wasn't there before. I was shocked that he wasn't subbed off. It was nice to see Antony make a play (two actually) at the end, but he also had a rough game. Lets hope he continues to grow because he needs some work as well.
I think there should have been a yellow for NY for "offside abuse" and also for simulating fake injuries.
The MLS Disciplinary Committee has fined New York City FC forward Jovan Mijatović an undisclosed amount for violating the Simulation-Embellishment Policy: https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/orlando-minnesota-players-fined-after-mass-confrontation-policy-violation
The simulation was pretty bad, but then again it helped us out in the end. Without it the game gets called before Evander gets that last shot off. From that viewpoint, NYCFC got what they deserved.
Mijatović gets what he deserves and so does the team. There was another one where the player faked getting hit in the face, I think, and actually Ross Smith called him out on it on the broadcast. Loved that!
One of the unfortunate side effects of the referee lockout is that MLS was set to introduce a couple new rules at the start of this season to cut down on time wasting, one of which also would have cut down on injury faking as well.
There was going to be a rule that "If a player with a suspected injury is on the ground for more than 15 seconds, referees will stop play so that the player can be removed from the field and evaluated, at which point they will remain off the field for a minimum of two minutes following treatment. There are a few exceptions, including head injuries, goalkeeper injuries, serious medical events, and fouls resulting in cards as those may need more time on the pitch."
It's unclear whether that will become a rule when the real refs eventually come back to work this season, or whether it will now wait until the beginning of next season, but this will really help when it eventually comes into being.
Yes, good point. In the DC game Hererra went down for about two minutes or more in stoppage time (huge injury fake and time wasting) and had to go off the field, but then the ref let him back on practically immediately. I thought he would be off for that minimum time.
I don’t think anything is “up” with McGraw necessarily, he just had a hard time with Bakrar. Bad day at the office. He was fine in the second half, it was an entire team “hey what the hell is going on” performance in that first 30 minutes, then it got better. He made some good clearances
Where and when can I watch a replay of this match?
I think you can watch the match replays for free on Apple TV
https://tv.apple.com/us/sporting-event/new-york-city-football-club-vs-portland-timbers/umc.cse.3rqkafwy1udgga6qweisr4pmc
There you go. Watch it any time you please. You might have to sign in, not sure if you have to give Apple / Lionel Messi any money to watch it.
ThErE's NoThInG wRoNg WiTh GiO
3 games into the season might be too early to start evaluating coach Neville but here are a couple of early thoughts.
If I knew we would start the season with 7 points I would have been happy with that so a bonus for success. Coach Neville has had to manage a lineup without 3 starters and a thin bench so bonus for that. Our offense has scored goals, even though the XG was low, so bonus for that. Watching games has been mostly fun but first half against NYCFC and second half against DC were painful to see. So far I would say we are a step up from Gio but that DC’s new coach was a better choice than ours. With a new coach I always worry about taking a step backwards and we didn’t do that. But I don’t think it was the leap forward that we were hoping for either. Again, it is early and I will reserve judgment for when the roster is complete.
I was with you until you thought the D.C. coach was a better choice.
The thing I like about Phil is that he seems to be trying to improve the individual player within the system. And by doing so, the team will be better. He's making soccer players, and not trying to fit them into a system. I think the DC coach is a system coach, where it doesn't matter about the players, it just matters how they play within the system. I predict DC will peter out in about two to three months.
Agreed on the DC coach. His system + Benteke will still probably be good enough to make it back to the playoffs. But DC's press was not nearly as effective today against Cincy, and its in large part because of the refs not allowing the same level of physicality that we saw.
My thought on Lesesne is he has a group without a lot of talent and has them playing above the sum of their parts. The players knew their role and executed well IMO. But it is early and maybe the wheels fall off in time. Also with a long season Neville’s building and development may pay off in the long run. Like I said, it is early so not time for a conclusion yet. But I am interested to hear everyone’s thoughts on the coach so far.
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