Must Win? | Portland Thorns at North Carolina Courage Preview with Tyler Trent
The Portland Thorns are winless in their last five straight matches (in all competitions) and have one point from their first three matches to start the season. Is this a must win game?
NWSL WEEK 4
What: Portland Thorns at North Carolina Courage
When: Saturday, April 13 at 4pm PT
Streaming: NWSL+
Tyler Trent of TopBin90
We are honored to be joined by Tyler Trent of TopBin90 to help us preview this massive NWSL match between Portland Thorns and North Carolina Courage.
STF: Last season, NCC was at the bottom of most media pundits' preseason power rankings. This season, they are one of the top contenders. Has their approach to this season changed at all from last season?
Tyler Trent: I don’t think so. The Courage have some minor tweaks and additions to their system, but Nahas has made it clear that he wants to play their style and entertain fans. I don’t think any matchup will change that because he believes in the system and his team to adapt as needed.
STF: Can you tell us more about Denise O'Sullivan's impact on this team? Her leadership and captaincy seems to be in an elite tier of her own.
Tyler Trent: Denise O’Sullivan has been called one of the best midfielders in the world by both Coach Nahas and her former national team manager Vera Pauw - and I honestly think they are correct. There’s not many players who can perform multiple midfield roles to the level that the Courage Captain does - and on a consistent basis.
In addition to her obvious impact on the pitch, she is pretty universally loved by fans, coaches, and players - absolutely has the perfect mentality to balance her highly competitive nature, having fun playing the game, and leading teammates. Sully is one of a kind.
STF: The Courage are off to another great start to the season (frankly should have 3 wins with the loss being very unfortunate). What has been the key to the season even without Kerolin?
Tyler Trent: Continuing their development from last season. The Courage still look very similar to last season even without several regular starters absent from the squad to start the year.
While you can never really replace a player like Kerolin, Coach Nahas has really focused on a team mentality and approach to the game with any player capable of being that difference maker on the day. The addition of Dani Weatherholt, Bianca St-Georges, and Ashley Sanchez provides a great boost to the team with veteran and proven talent to help the team while they play without the MVP.
Additionally, I think there’s some maturity shown from players like Riley Jackson, Manaka Matsukubo, and Haley Hopkins that provide a great boost when they are called upon.
STF: North Carolina are flying high and Portland continues to struggle. What is your key matchup for this game? What type of game do you expect to see?
Tyler Trent: A matchup between these two teams means anything can happen. North Carolina will try to impose their style of play and at home, it’s likely that will control the majority of possession. The Courage will have to be weary of counterattacks off turnovers though, especially if Sophia Smith ends up getting minutes.
STF: Score prediction and why?
Tyler Trent: 2-1 Courage. I think it will be tight match regardless of form coming into the game. If Manaka and Sanchez are able to create, the Courage will win. The defense is still very strong, and Feli Rauch is about a good of a replacement as you can find for Emily Fox. However, Portland still has very dangerous attacking players and in a rivalry matchup like this, I could see the Thorns stepping up.
STF: Any concerns on international break?
Tyler Trent: We could possibly see some regular starters on the bench to begin. O’Sullivan, Rauch, Casey Murphy, and St-Georges were all called up over the international break. Even though O’Sullivan played two full games, I could still see her starting, but Nahas has enough trust in his squad to give her a break as needed. Expect Murphy and Rauch to start since they didn’t get minutes during the break. St-Georges is probably a toss up!
Stumptown Footy Corner
The team is currently tied for last with a single point alongside Angel City. The start to the season has been disastrous. This is an extremely difficult game for Portland Thorns. Getting any sort of result for this game would be massive. However, the way the team is playing compared to a red-hot North Carolina Courage side, it’s almost an impossible task.
Sean Nahas is one of the top coaches in the NWSL and will have the Courage ready to go. North Carolina is one of the best teams because of their top possession numbers and solid team defense. They are simply built different.
Sophia Smith won’t be available for a full minutes after playing the complete SheBelieves Cup finale against Canada. Would be quite a surprise if Jessie Fleming, Janine Beckie, and Sam Coffey to be available for more than 60 minutes as well.
The difficulty of the game doesn’t scream “must win” to me, but the Portland Thorns absolutely cannot get blown out of the water. They have to find ways to keep possession and convert on the chances they do get. This is one game where Mike Norris needs to have the fullbacks sit deeper to avoid any counterattacks and transition chances. The true “must win” game for me is next week at home against Houston Dash.
NCC is built the way Portland should be playing with a team predicated on possession and playing discipline defense. If Portland continually refuses to play through their strength in midfield and plays their usual defensively challenged formation, it’s going to be an extremely long day.
Projected Starting XI
Morgan Weaver - Christine Sinclair - Janine Beckie
Olivia Moultrie - Hina Sugita - Sam Coffey
Marie Müller - Becky Sauerbrunn - Kelli Hubly - Meghan Klingenberg
Expect Jessie Fleming to play a full second half
Reyna Reyes is coming off a full 90 against Australia, so will likely be a second half sub.
Klingenberg starting would be a surprise, but the chemistry has been lacking between the new players and she would provide some more stability.
Prediction
Portland Thorns 1, North Carolina Courage 3
The NWSL is all about matchups and this is one of the worst ones for Portland. NCC has speed, possession, and talent all over the pitch - they also have a terrific coach who rarely gets the tactics wrong. Norris’ refusal to have a more discipline approach on defense has cost the team, mightily. If he goes to a more balanced approach, it could change the outcome.
Thanks
We could not thank Tyler Trent enough for helping us out with this preview. His work for TopBin90 is phenomenal and he is one of the best. Be sure to follow him on Twitter and check out his amazing work.
Unfortunately I have to agree that Nahas and The Damned Courage have too many structural advantages to make this “must-win”.
But this has to be a “must-not-be-a-shitshow”. We can’t see a repetition of the first halves at KC or against Louisville. The squad needs to show that Norris has trained on defensive shape and possession under pressure. Players need to look like they’ve worked out roles and understand each other. I keep hearing about this midfield we’re supposed to have; let’s see it!
If we keep the match tight but lose 1-nil or 2-1 I’ll be disappointed but more forgiving than if this is a 3-nil beatdown where this squad is outplayed and Norris outcoached again. Win or lose today, given this start he has to be on borrowed time, but a good showing today could borrow him a bit more.
He’s put himself in a hole so far this season that this tough away game after a tournament really is a must-win. Not only has his record been dire since after players left for the World Cup, but the play this season has just hit a new low from what we got mid-end of last season. There’s not really any way around it…he’s used up his runway at this point. He leaves with anything less than a W and it should be problematic to the FO. Pretty simple. For me, a win would be great but it’s not really gonna change my opinion of the coach at this point…
I kinda feel like we’re gonna get a backline of Müller, Broon, Hubly, and Kling because they were all there this off period; and then I won’t be surprised to see Sinclair start also, but in midfield. There is absolutely NO reason for her to be starting in the 9. Soph should still be starting this game, even if she only goes 60…then you can bring out Izzy or Ana Dias in the 9. Get the goals early with your best on the field. Sam is gonna have to go a full 90 bc we literally have no backup 6. Hina HAS to start at this point, whether in midfield or at RW. Jessie did play 2 full 90’s, so I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Coffey, Hina, and Sinc/Moultrie in the midfield.