67 Comments

Bruin made a great play. Mabialla jumped a half sec too soon. Gotta live with that. Many finishes missed to make the third goal. Overall Gio did a good job.

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founding

Too bad, because Mabiala played his strongest game in the past couple seasons, IMO. There was even a play where he tracked down an Austin attacker on the break. Mabiala running fast to get back?! Say whaaaaat?!

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One of the problems on that goal was Diego Chara did not step up to his man which allowed him to do a great cross

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The open cross was Claudio Bravo's man. He was out of position and Chara was doing his best (as always) to cover the lapse.

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The first goal was bravos man for sure. I rewatched the second goal. I think it was Chara’s man, but he was defending it slightly better than I originally thought. I recommend watching it again.

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I don’t think so RE: first goal being Bravo’s man. The defense had slid over to accommodate for Mosquera being high and out of position, so Bravo was essentially playing as a CB there and marking Zardes. Either a CM needed to drop back earlier to mark Zardes so Bravo could stay on the far post, or Loria needed to cover. Neither happened so it left Bravo to mark two players. He loses no matter who he decides to mark. It was just a disorganized defense and Bravo did his best to cover the most dangerous man, which was their striker right in front of goal

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In the "Hindsight is 20:20 vision" (patent pending), if you watch Timbers players only on the replays:

Goal 1: Started because of a bad giveaway centrally among our DMs. Not a good place to lose the ball because 9x out of 10 the counter will be on. Ball initially pushed up the middle and Loria jogs back, even slows down at one point to just follow, head turned the whole time ball watching - doesn't even see the back line shift right. to make up for the fact that Mosquera was caught up field on the turnover - Mabiala needs to shift out to the right side (left winger), Zup slides over to fill the space with 2 runners coming down the channels (Evander has picked up one of them, the other with the ball who Chara pressures) and Bravo steps over to pick up Zardes (has to go past the center of the box to do so). Loria's man gets more and more open as he ball watches and slowly drifts the wrong way before he finally sees what is happening and by then it is far too late, 12 yards behind the play before he accelerates as the cross is hit ... nobody can make up that space, but the space should have been 3-5 yards at most if Loria has any awareness whatsoever.

Goal 2: Honestly, this one was because of the cross then a mistimed jump. That cross should have never come in and happened because space was created with Chara, Bravo (and Evander, but largely the other two on this play) were running in circles trying to decide how to defend outside and ultimately gave waaaay too much space for a free cross in. You just can't do that with 20 seconds left on the clock.

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I agree. I initially thought it was Loria but then wasn't sure. In any case our midfield need to track back and support the defense.

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May 8, 2023·edited May 8, 2023

So this was the post that prompted me to ask the mods if a weekly open thread was possible (thanks, by the way!). The Timbers are deficient in the coaching ranks, and we believe they may be deficient in the training/medical staff ranks, and it also appears that they're deficient in the analytical ranks as well:

https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2023/5/1/2023-mls-analytics-survey

I am a big believer in using stats, I've seen over the years how they have changed baseball and changed the way we evaluate baseball players. I do not believe that stats in and of themselves are a silver bullet, a magic formula, or the automatic solution to all a team's problems, but if having a robust statistical analysis group can find enough of an edge to give the Timbers one or two extra wins a year, it's worth it.

The whole Timbers operation should be under a microscope and constantly trying to be better; the fact that they seemingly aren't is squarely on the shoulders of MP. If he really doesn't want to invest that time or money, he should either sell and cash in or bring in a group of investors who are willing to be more active.

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I remember when we thought we were cutting edge because we had a high schooler on our payroll doing analytics :(

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There was a time in soccer when that WAS cutting edge! Sadly, that time was like a decade ago.

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ya that list feels spot on, great article

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founding

If we’ve learned anything over the years, it’s that we sure can count on MP to do what’s right and best for the club 🙄

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yeah, I don't know why I hope for anything better, structure-wise, from this club, because I'm almost always disappointed when I do.

It's a good thing I still enjoy going to games and watching individual players develop, otherwise I would seriously consider dumping my season tickets because Merritt is running this team on fumes.

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founding

That was awful kind of you to imply he’s running anything at all

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I have faith that he approves payroll, because otherwise there'd be a revolt. Beyond that, though, he's checked out.

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May 8, 2023·edited May 8, 2023

Anyone else skeptical of Gio's late-match tactics against Austin? Why not sub in Clegg for a third CB and keep Bravo and Mosquero from racing forward? Tired legs and a must-score-a-third goal approach spelled disaster.

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founding

Honestly not really. If Mabiala had been struggling prior then I’d be calling for that sub, too, but Mabiala was honestly our strongest defender up until that last minute play. In my eyes the bigger struggles were with getting Loria, Moreno and Boli to string together cohesive passes and attacks, and so for that matter, I think the subs made sense. Only thing I would have rather seen were the full slate of subs happen at the 60th minute.

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My point was not to sub Mabiala but give him and Zuparic some help. Going into stoppage with a 2-1 lead typically means employing a strong defensive approach and alignment.

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From that standpoint I thought it was weird to take out Paredes and insert a winger (Asprilla) when up 1. It wasn't weird that we took Paredes out (he was on a time limit from the training staff coming back from injury), it was weird that we didn't:

A) Sub like for like.

B) If that was impossible change formations to something more defensive oriented.

C) Change tactics ... hold the damn ball, dark arts in that last few minutes!!

Option A was pretty limited. His defensive subs were T2 guys. Not by choice ... injury, illness and YC accumulation left the cupboard bare. Throwing Caliskan or Clegg out there in the waning moments might have worked, might have gotten the same result, might have even been worse.

I have no idea why they didn't go more 4-4-2 or even 4-5-1 and tell Chara and Asprilla they needed to drop off and help Chara/Evander in the middle. Instead we essentially went to a 4-1-3-2. Chara can't do that anymore ... sorry guys!

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The cupboard was definitely bare for replacing Paredes with defensive mids with MLS experience. And it will remain bare for the rest of the season unless someone is brought in during the July window.

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A T2 guy can't play defense for five minutes? I think Gio just wanted to give Asprilla some minutes.

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Asprilla played 16 minutes (sub at 78th minute + 4 stoppage). We still could have subbed again, even taken Asprilla off in the 89th if that is what you mean.

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founding

I think bringing Asprilla on actually helped. If you looked at what Austin was making us do clear it long instead of playing out of the back as soon as Asprilla came on that became more effective. Also but for a real cute weird reverse back heel turn in the box he may of had a goal. Gio put the team in a great position just didn’t come together.

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founding

I get that, my counterpoint was that Gio was going for a 3rd, rather than asking our beat up (Zup) and aging (Mab) CBs to trust a 23y/o with 0 MLS minutes, and only 6 games with the 2nd team. If we parked the bus with 3 CBs I bet we have the same result.

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You're right in that quality depth was a legitimate concern, Clepp being case in point. But I also pointed out that in my 20-20 hindsight it was questionable to keep using Bravo and Mosquera the same way. They could have hung back more to slow down the Austin attack and help out Mabiala and Zuparic.

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Is there a timeline for Sauerbrunn's return? We're missing her.

"When we draw, we draw 3-3."

-Portland Thorns

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OK there was the 2-2 draw vs Houston, but that was just experimental error. Three out our last four draws were 3-3.

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I never heard the official injury severity other than foot injury. Obviously it did not require surgery. I am sure they want to make sure she is fully healed before the World Cup in July, which seems like forever but maybe not if dealing with a foot injury. But her quiet presence on the pitch is magnified by what has happened to our defense with her off the pitch. I am ready for the Thorns to try someone besides Menges at CB at this point, though.

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If it's a lisfranc injury without displacement the typical timeline is 6-8 weeks. No idea what it is, but let's assume that's a baseline.

But as Constant Weeder points out, it's not a "Sauerbrunn will fix it!" thing. The backline has some sort of issue this season.

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We are missing her, but the back line hasn't been that great with her either. And with the WC looming, we need to be solid on defense without her anyway. Hoping that Menges will regain her form is not a plan. I just hope there is a plan.

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Not sure I can agree. Sauerbrunn has played 4 games, during which we shipped 2 goals. In the 2 games without her, we've shipped 6 goals. That's more goals given up in *each game* without her than in *all games combined* with her. Admittedly we've had some issues all along, but still that's a pretty stark difference.

And for me the eye test agrees - we've looked more disorganized in back since she's been out.

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May 10, 2023·edited May 10, 2023

The numbers by themselves don't support my point, but I think you also have to consider:

1) Strength of opposition

2) Dropoff in Bixby's form - she saved some early shots she shouldn't have had to face.

3) Dropoff in Sinclair's defensive activity - the midfield has become very porous.

4) Disappointing performance by Menges, who I hope will regain her previous form..

While a healthy Sauerbruunn is obviously an asset to the team, there are currently more problems than just her absence.

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Does anyone know what's up with getting our money back from the Brian Fernandez situation? I thought it went through some kind of sports arbitration something-or-another, or has it even gotten to that point yet? Any infos would be appreciated. P.S. - really dislike Will Bruin by this point

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I haven't heard anything beyond the fact that a resolution was being discussed. I would love to know as well, but I have a feeling that is something that won't be made public if and when it's finally resolved.

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Agree. Nor will it suddenly cause us to go out and get a DP 9 because we are flush with cash.

Oh wait we have a DP 9 ... who comes off the bench.

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It feels like Will Bruin has played for 20 years and worn the uniform of every one of Portland’s Western Conference opponents!

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Yet the Timbers never learn to put a body on Will Bruin when he comes in because he is always looking to score and usually does against the Timbers. Be very physical on Bruin and you shut him down.

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Yes. The Timbers almost always give him space. That’s a mistake.

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In response to FDChief's comments on Riveting!, where I can't seem to log in anymore-

Bixby was so hot and cold this game. She certainly should have saved the early goal. And possibly the second one too, though if she had we'd be calling it a fantastic save - Kerolin's shot was well struck, caromed in off the post, and got deflected to boot. But then Bixby did go and make at least two fantastic saves later in the game, on Lussi's header and another point-blank one that saved the game.

For me she's earned the right to keep starting despite some poor plays lately. That won't be true indefinitely, of course, but for now it is.

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I tend to agree on this. The first goal was so strange with the deflection at short range. I think Bixby is going to be fine, but the coaching staff needs to pay close attention and give her a break if she is getting into her own head. I'll have to go back and look at them, but I seem to recall that the goals have been great shots. There was little to nothing she could have done on the goals by Alyssa Thompson, Ertz and Kerolin.

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I like a weekly thread like this. Thanks for doing it.

I wonder what kind of lineup we will have for SLC in the OC. This seems like a good game for Loria but he may still be tired from Saturday. Maybe we get another Blanco siting and Gutierrez. This also seems like a good chance for Bonilla to get minutes. Too bad Miller will probably still be sick. Do you play Rasmussen or Bravo and go for the win. Anyway it will be interesting to see how hard Gio goes for a win with such a depleted squad.

Speaking of a depleted squad is there any exception the team gets to sign a player when they have had multiple season ending injuries? It seems like need to pick up someone like Flores or Fochive to fill a spot in the middle for yellow card accumulations etc. the way we got Ketterer as keeper when we were short.

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May 10, 2023·edited May 10, 2023

Teams are allowed one "hardship signing" per season, but that also has to coincide with a player being placed on the Season-Ending Injury list. Placing a player on that list removes their salary budget charge from a team's overall payroll, but also placing a player on the list and getting a hardship replacement can only be done a) if the player is making more than $100K and b) if that injury happened prior to the end of the Primary Transfer Window. So that is not a mechanism that is available to the Timbers now.

I also learned, in looking up that answer, that MLS has an Injured List mechanism. Placing a player on the Injured List means that the injured player must miss a minimum of six games. That player can be replaced on the roster as long as the club has salary cap space available to sign players (no salary budget charge relief is given for players on the IL). That's probably why clubs don't use that mechanism all that much.

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"Hardship" signings are distinct from Season-Ending Injury replacements and regular Injury List replacements. SEI and regular IL replacements works as you said. Hardship signings are allowed at any time (even after the roster freeze date), whenever you have fewer than 16 outfield players or fewer than 2 goalkeepers. You can add as many players as you want with not hit toward the cap to get you to 16 OF players or 2 GKs. The replacement players can only be signed to contracts of up-to 4 days at a time. Hardship is how we ended up with that goalie from El Paso a couple of years ago, when Ivacic, Clark, and Attinella went out and we only had Sulte.

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Oh and also the SEI rules changed. Players must now be placed on the SEI list prior to the opening of the second transfer window, not the closing of the primary one.

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Ah, thanks for the clarifications.

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Thanks for the research and answer (feeling a little guilty for not researching the answer myself). I guess Williamson wasn’t injured before the end of the primary transfer window? So we will have to wait for the Summer window for a stopgap defensive mid and depth at center back? Maybe losing in the OC wouldn’t be such a bad thing to keep everyone fresh for league games but I still want to win.

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Not necessarily... See my comment to the parent comment.

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time to get revenge for 2013

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Regarding the Thorns, I'm a little concerned that they are not coming out with enough intensity early in their games. The past few games have seen the opposition come at us early to try and control the game, and the Thorns have been on the backfoot. Perhaps it is simply the early goals that bother me, but I would think putting the opposition on the defensive would pay huge dividends throughout the game.

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It might be just me, but I haven't really noticed Mosquera the past few games. I can't tell if he is more committed to defense, or just not as involved in the offense as much as he was earlier. If he is more focused on defense that is a good thing as it appears to be tightened up from earlier, but I would like to see more of him going forward. He is such a threat.

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I don’t think it’s just you, but I also don’t think it’s because he’s being any less amazing than normal. He got into a great position in the first half where he mishit a shot that he honestly could’ve scored. He had another great play where he cut inside and had a wonderful little pass through to Boli. He’s still been great, I think we’re either just getting used to him now or we finally have other players doing good things so we don’t notice as much

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Good points. I don't think he has hit a wall or anything, but did notice that he was less involved recently. Thedefense has been a lot better in the last few games, and I think he does a good job defending. He is very dynamic with the ball and hopefully the team finds ways to take advantage of that. Perhaps it is because the attacking players are more effective that he doesn't have to push up as much as he did early. Its a nice problem to have, with both he and Bravo as good two way players. Take advantage of each, and put pressure on the opposition.

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He has been pushed back to right back with a 4 man back line. He was def noticeable against St. Louis offensively despite this and I think was trying to get into that Austin game but just wasn't factoring in much in the final third. He was playing wing and wingback before that.

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Did anyone who went to the match notice a "laurel garland and all seeing eye" illuminati flag being flown by the section 104 capo? I've been trying to figure out what that was all about. Even the capo didn't know.

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I did not notice, but I'll definitely keep an eye out tomorrow and this weekend, because now I'm curious.

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Keep an eye out for it. Big flag, black on white with a laurel and an eye in the middle of it. I'm always in the 204, I'll be at tomorrow's match and I'll try to get a photo of it if it pops up again.

I'm just glad it wasn't yellow on black, because that hints at the Proud Boys & hate speech we can't tolerate in our park.

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Does anyone have an informed assessment of Tyler Clegg and his potential? I am not interested in half-assed observations based on watching him play for five minutes, his looks, or where he is from. He is 6' 3." -- which is a strong asset in this league.

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Unfortunately, what you not-at-all-condescendingly call "half-assed observations based on watching him play for five minutes" are all you'll likely to get on an internet forum where nobody has any inside information, access, or knowledge. None of us that I'm aware of go to training; none of us have tracked his development in more than an occasional way.

I would be willing to wager nobody here is an obsessive T2 watcher/follower - if so, please accept my apologies and share what you know, because I'm curious about Clegg too - so all that most of us have to go by is the minutes he played for the first team in the USOC last week.

To answer your question, I do not have an "informed assessment", but I also wish you would have phrased the question in a way that didn't make it sound like we're all idiots trying to be experts.

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founding

I’ve only missed 1 T2 game this year and all I have are half assed assessments. Dude has played 6 games, lol. My assessment would be “he’s fine, we haven’t won the lottery or anything.”

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May 10, 2023·edited May 10, 2023

My half-assed assessment is even smaller sample size, the USOC game. He was OK, scored a goal which was good, was competent against a bad 2nd division team defensively.

Didn't he also play for T2 last year? Worst defense in the league by a long shot (66 GA, -37 GD ... league average GA looks like it was about 39?). EDIT: OK, wrong about that, I don't see him on the 2022 roster. That said, T2 has 3 points after 6 matches, still shipping goals with a -8 GD (14 GA) which can never really be blamed on one player alone, of course.

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He didn't play for us last year. We got him in the draft this year. Played college ball at JMU in Virginia. More details on his time there, here: https://www.whsv.com/2022/12/23/jmu-mens-soccer-standout-tyler-clegg-drafted-portland-timbers/

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That's the whole thing - Tyler Clegg, right now, seems to be the latest walking example of Small Sample Size. I'm not sure we can even make a good assessment of him until he has a much bigger run of games under his belt.

Side question: do you go to T2 games, or watch them online somehow? If so, how? I'd be curious to check them out more but I haven't taken the time to figure out how to watch them if not in person.

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founding

MLSNextPro.com and then the videos tab along the top, and then streams. Something like that. It’s a little clunky to navigate, but they’re YouTube streams and always work well for me.

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They are available in the MLS NextPro playlist on the Timbers' YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@TimbersFC/playlists

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To everyone optimistic about defensive prospects from T2 and the short lived hype surrounding them, I would start with one Rennico Clarke

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