131 Comments
Sep 17, 2023·edited Sep 17, 2023

Fantastic win, great crowd, excellent response to whatever last week was.

- Rocky wotm for me, Weaver and Coffey a close second. She has these games sometimes where she’s impossible to dispossess and it makes the midfield flow so much better. Trucking Fishlock the cherry on top.

- Becky’s presence makes a world of difference, mostly because of her ability to play accurate, well-weighted balls into the midfield.

- Some credit to Norris for the narrow 4-2-3-1. Lets Dunn roam centrally, protected the fullbacks against the cross, and got his best players on the field. Hope that stays with Smith replacing Sinc, who was virtually invisible.

- Still seeing a lot of Hubly slander. Too many people adjusted their expectation for her from “solid but would prefer she was third choice” to “top level CB” after last season. She is what she is, and what she is not is Becky Sauerbrunn (maybe a top 10 CB ever) or even Emily Menges (arguably one of the top ten CBs the NWSL has seen). Norris asks *a lot* out of his CBs on the ball because of how high he pushes the fullbacks. They have to be able to see the field and distribute accurately and under pressure. It’s just not Hubly’s game, and it’s why the best pairing is always going to the one we saw tonight. That’s not a knock on on Hubly.

- It’s time we had a talk about the Reign and Harvey: Huitema out wide? No pace? Kling and Kuikka got to play on easy mode because there was no pace threat whatsoever. Big picture, they have no young talent. It’s Lavelle, Olo, and a bunch of olds! Future is not bright imo.

Lastly, a formal apology to Morgan Weaver for ever even *thinking* I might rather have Ashley Sanchez. Absolute star, and she’s completely risen to the occasion with Soph out. Ice cold celebration in front of the visiting section too: This whole clip is immediately a Thorns hall-of-famer: https://x.com/NWSL/status/1703250389733171316?s=20

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Sep 17, 2023·edited Sep 18, 2023

Yes on Hubly is our third best CB. Now comes the problem: Becky isn't going to play forever. But it's visible how much more settled everyone is with Becky back out there, and how much that helps Menges.

Yes on the need to talk about Harvey. I am watching Orlando and North Carolina now, and what I see is that each has the ability to be suddenly dangerous. Reign used to have that too, but it's been a minute. Is that age? Is that match fitness? Is that hunger? Is it time for a change on the sideline?

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Sep 18, 2023·edited Sep 18, 2023

Some of it’s on Harvey -- what is a front line of Rapinoe-Balcer-Huitema on the road in PDX??-- but it’s absolutely a talent thing at the end of the day.

The best non-Lavelle Reign attacking players are:

Rapinoe (38 and retiring)

Fishlock (36)

Balcer (Good player, wouldn’t start for many NWSL teams)

Huitema (only semi-talent is getting on the end of crosses)

Bennett/King (fine subs, nothing more)

How many Thorns players do you pick before you get to the first Reign player? I’d take (at least) Soph, Weaver, Hina, Dunn, Coffey, and Becky over any non-Lavelle Reign player. They just don’t have much talent in the pipeline.

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It sometimes happens with veteran clubs. They don't train as hard and aren't as hungry as younger ones, and speed kills.

I think it's quite telling that PTJ left them for ManU.

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Van Der Jagt is an upcoming talent sez me. Balcer is legit bur not even always even starting. Huitema is an absolute terror when used correctly.

Hard to pin down why they're not in the top 3 but here we are.

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Sep 18, 2023·edited Sep 18, 2023

I do like Van der Jagt, but I’m yet to see Huitema look anything like a terror for club or country. She’s in the 40th percentile or lower in every meaningful attacking stat and doesn’t really have an elite trait to her game.

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Oh lord, Huitema's upside is stratospheric. She's all of 22 and three years ago lit up Jamaica with five goals in CONCAF play. Just needs the right system.

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Sep 18, 2023·edited Sep 18, 2023

She might well have another gear, but the numbers (https://fbref.com/en/players/3d1f29d9/Jordyn-Huitema) speak for themselves: She hasn’t been particularly impressive for any extended period of time during her pro career in a way that would suggest stratospheric upside. The best version of her (to me) is Ashley Hatch.... a real good player, but not someone I’d build a team around.

It’s just really hard to be an elite level striker unless you are either really fast, really skilled, or are a really high-level finisher. Nothing I’ve seen from her suggests she has any of those traits, let alone multiple. I'm curious what makes you think so highly of her? What would be the system where she would blossom?

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I would gladly take Bennett off the Reign’s hands. Of course I wouldn’t take her over any the the Thorns’ players you mentioned but seeing a front line of Smith, Weaver, and Bennett?? That’s a pressure cooker for the opposing team’s backline. Kind of what I envisioned, but we never got to see enough of with Smith, Weaver, and Charlie

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i know Reign have a GM now, but hasn't *this* iteration of them basically been Harvey's team?

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Fair point. It does stand out that they’ve really struggled to obtain any young talent outside of Huitema, Angelina, and Van der Jagt.....like we’ve had Smith, Weaver, Coffey, and Hina all come in at 25 or under in the last three years and become locked in starters on a championship team, and that’s not even including Yaz Ryan, Moultrie, or Reyes.

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Harvey seems to have a strong preference for veterans.

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Best part of the match was Weaver's celebration taunting the Seattle away section! Total legend!

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If you haven't already watch her post game interview with Sinc. There is a lovely back story behind it as well.

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Underrated part of that interview was the “well I’m from Tacoma, but OK” line. She’s like our Rapinoe (who obviously played at UP), coming from Tacoma and WSU before becoming a fan favorite in PDX.

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Sep 18, 2023·edited Sep 18, 2023

Here’s a Reyes extension; they’ve clearly seen enough. Hopefully more to follow on the contract front.

https://x.com/ThornsFC/status/1703840416427291031?s=20

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As Morgan Weaver turns into a Portland soccer icon in front of our eyes, does anyone remember what it took to get the second pick that was used on her?

(I do. It was 70K and the 15th and 16th picks. An absolutely hilarious, ridiculous fleece of a trade.)

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Thanks for this bit of info. I just remember that after seeing her in the NCAA College Cup tournament I was ecstatic that the Thorns picked her. I would have been happy with Sanchez, mind you, and I thought she would be the pick, but I really liked what I had seen of Weaver's attitude and energy. Now I'm also really impressed with her determination to work on her weaknesses and her success in becoming more savvy and controlled.

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Watching the replay and halfway through it's Thorns and Thorns with the nod to Bix for at least two goals stopped. Loving the 3-way connection among Kuikka, Dunn and Sugita. Hina also pantses Pino by doing Hina things. Bliss.

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Bella's quick reflex on Rapinoe's poach attempt early in the game put a big grin on my face.

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Kling's comment before the game and following it up with a win is goosebumps status. These are the moments that make being a sports fan worth it! RCTID

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Lots of results went our way this weekend: SD lost, allowing us to leapfrog them to the top. NC lost, giving us a 2-point cushion. Of course Reign lost, which is always good. The only troubling result was Gotham's win, since they're only two points back and who knows how good they are now.

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Thoughts on the game:

- We dominated in the first half. I was SO happy we scored two goals then because with how hard we were playing, there's no way we could keep it up for 90 minutes. For a while it looked like it might be one of those games where we dominate but can't put a goal away, but then Rocky-to-Sugita happened (with help from Huitema) and then Morgan Weaver happened.

- Sure enough, the second half was a very different story. Reign was on the front foot, but the Thorns put on a very good defensive display and kept the clean sheet. I kinda enjoyed how well we frustrated Reign in this half.

- We gave up some heart-stopping moments in the game though, most prominently Latsko's complete whiff on a cross at the back post and Bixby's dive to her right to save Rapinoe's shot by the post.

- Overall though we gave Reign far more heart-stopping moments than they gave us. I wouldn't be surprised if the xG score is something like 3 - 1 or even 3 - 0.5.

- Coffey, Weaver, Sugita, Rodríguez, Kuikka, Dunn, and Menges all had terrific games. Weaver and Coffey WOTM for me.

- Weaver's goal was right past Rapinoe, fulfilling Kling's pre-game wish to give Rapinoe a proper send-off by kicking her ass.

- I really really hope the intensity of this game doesn't mean we come out limp next game, against San Diego. Hopefully the 2-week gap will help forestall any mental relaxation, as will the fact that SD is breathing down our neck in the table.

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Correction: Weaver's goal was right past Sonnett, not Rapinoe. Pinoe did, however, have a front-row view of it.

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Sep 19, 2023·edited Sep 19, 2023

Totally agree with you about Pinoe and kayfabe, but I think you're misreading Fishlock. It's also kayfabe, but of a different stripe. Pinoe is Roddy Piper, Fishlock is the Iron Sheikh.

Pinoe said it all when she said she's been trying to impress Portland since she was 18.

Fishlock is a terrific person too, but she's not trying to impress Portland. She's more like Bill Laimbeer. In other words, she's not the "bad guy you love to hate." She's "the bad guy you hate but you'd love to have on your team." But, unlike Laimbeer (who was genuinely a dick until later in life), she's also a terrific person, so that's kayfabe for me too.

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I've got a hell of a lot of respect for Fishlock. Great player. She's also a real assassin, and, yes, she's the Diego Chara of Seattle; on your squad she's a hard-nosed asset, on an opponent a thug, albeit a supremely gifted one...

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Yeah, Fishlock always struck me as someone willing to beat us by whatever means possible. If that meant some rough physical play, so be it.

As a Thorns fan, I hated how good she was against us, but that feeling was based on respect for how good she is period. I'd have loved to have her on the Thorns at any point in her career.

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founding

All the proof you need: one of the loudest cheers of the night was when Rocky sent her flying and Koroleva swallowed her whistle.

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Yep. I cheered. Revenge is a dish &tc…

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Was also fun when Fishlock got deked and came up with nothing despite her dogged efforts to press and win the ball right at midfield along the far touchline. I think Rocky did that to her as well.

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It is pretty cool how fluid Norris allows this formation to play- Rocky’s allowed to get forward, Hina drifts wherever to get involved, Sinc just kinda drifts in general. I think the freedom kinda hurts them against quicker teams when a strict shape is more important, but it works really well against Seattle.

Only thing I’d add is that I thought Dunn was playing as a pretty classic 10, though she certainly drifted out wide right more frequently to combine with Hina and Natu. Out of possession it played as a 4-2-2-2, but in possession it looked more like a 4-1-4-1.....except Sinc isn’t really capable of playing as that point striker so it was almost a 4-1-5. There were a lot of nice passing sequences between Rocky/Kling/Weaver down the left and Hina/Kuikka/Dunn on the right.

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What Sinclair did a lot was lope back and forth across the top of the Seattle box when they were in position. I didn't feel she actually posed a threat to intercept a pass between the CBs, but she did make them think about it. I think that hampered their efforts to find an outlet and slowed their attack. And it meant Sinc was in position to join in the attack in transition.. If she is going to play a lot of minutes, I think this is her most helpful position.

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Sep 20, 2023·edited Sep 20, 2023

Thanks as always for the writeup, John. Some thoughts:

- Moultrie's PMR would equate to +20/-0 over 90 minutes. That's incredible, especially for a teenager.

- I can't criticize Sonnett much for Weaver's goal. Reign is using zonal marking on that corner and Sonnett is occupying space where a ball would be even more dangerous than the one that reached Weaver. IOW, Sonnett was doing what she was supposed to.

- Speaking of Weaver's goal, that volley was a thing of beauty, just a really sweet hit that no one had any chance whatever of stopping. Again, this struck me as a shot Weaver doesn't make 1-2 years ago - she'd have rushed the kick and missed the goalmouth. She's taken some big steps this year.

- I've been thinking about all the wandering about that Thorns players did. Was this genius-level total football, letting the players be maximally creative wherever they are on the field and having teammates primed to fill in spaces when someone ended up on the far side of the pitch? Or was it merely chaos of the sort that, say, Casey Stoney will lick her chops over? I'm not a good enough tactician to know the difference, so if anyone can enlighten me, please do!

- I'm loving the Rocky-Sam double pivot. Dunno if it was that or Sauerbrunn's presence for half the game, but that defense felt solid in a way it hasn't for most of the season.

- When was the last time we had a pass network that looked, well, normal? I can't even remember.

- I do remember Huerta sending in a few nice crosses, with either Thorns defenders heading them out or Bixby catching them. But that's Huerta's bread and butter; if we can limit her to a small handful of those crosses, we're doing well.

- To my eye, Coffey did better than her +10/-2 PMR suggests. She seemed to be everywhere in defense, heading off threats before they could develop. Her relatively low score might be a fault of the PMR stat itself, the same fault that makes Sauerbrunn's PMRs low: you get PMR numbers for on-ball actions, not for preventing a threat from ever developing in the first place. I generally like PMRs but no stat is perfect.

- Coffey seems about as difficult to dispossess as Horan, and I say that as the highest possible praise. They do it differently though: Horan keeps the ball by using her foot skills and body to maximum effect, while Coffey always finds and makes just the right pass to a teammate who has some time and space.

- I often find myself gaping in astonishment at Coffey's passes - how in the world did she know that teammate was open?! and how did she execute that perfect pass to her in the tenth of a second she had to get it off her boot?? One if the joys of sports spectating is seeing players do incredible things, and Coffey satisfies that desire pretty darn often.

- San Diego is actually here in two weeks, since we have an international break now.

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The problem with Sonnett is that she does that sort of thing more often than a player of her experience should. Zonal marking or no, 1) standing in the middle of the box three yards from the nearest attacker is worthless, and she should know it, as is 2) ballwatching rather than headchecking the attacker behind you is defending 101 and she should know that.

I was kind of fascinated by the tactical fluidity. I can't see it as a Norris instruction - he seems like a doctrinaire 4-3-3 guy - so maybe it's the players improvising? I'll be curious to see what happens against a defend-and-counter outfit like SDW...

As I mentioned, I think what happened with Coffey is that she was so effective early on that Harvey went to working around her. The weakness of the PMR ratings is that it misses what is that sort of "dark matter". If the opponents fear you so much they'd rather take a chance on running at your teammates to get around you then you don't get the pluses you'd otherwise. I still gave her several "forechecking" pluses when it was obvious that was what happened...but those are tough to suss out.

Brunn's, on the other hand, are pretty much because Seattle was ineffective at getting into the heart of the box. As the passing diagram shows, many of their attacks were halted short of the 18, and many more were either directed at the fullbacks, or were just long lobs that were easily headed away (which is neither a plus or minus...).

And I was woolgathering; yes, this weekend is a FIFA break, so we won't see SDW until 9/30

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Becky Glue. Brunn has played five matches this season and Thorns are four wins and one draw in those.

We can discuss cause and effect until the bovines wander in but I'll go there: she makes this team better.

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Yep. Plainly visible that everybody is more comfortable and confident in their own role knowing that there's no chance of a surprise fire drill in our own half or in our own box.

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I want to believe that, but 1) that’s a small N, and 2) two of those wins were against opponents the Thorns would have had to just stop playing at halftime to lose to.

We’ll see; Brunn should be fully fit by 9/30, and against a good opponent she’ll have the chance to prove you right. At the moment we have the most porous defense of the top four clubs.

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https://x.com/arielle_dror/status/1703490889811636557?s=20

I mean......kinda speaks for itself! AND, look how dangerous Weaver is when she gets on the ball. Menges so positive on ball too back at RCB with Becky next to her.

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For once the eyes and stats match.

And oof, look at Emily Fox trying her damnedest to prop up the Couragettes.

https://nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FF6UCHosX0AAzlDn.jpg

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With this weekend's results done we know what needs to be done. We have 2 home games. If we can win both against the 2nd and 3rd place teams the shield is ours and can have a great vacation in LA. Courage can only get 37 and Gotham/Wave with a loss will only be able to get to 36, Reign can only get to 36, and the Thorns will be on 38.

If we can scoop up a win and a draw a first round bye isn't guaranteed, but is very likely and leave the shield up for another final game of the year loss of first place like we did last year.

If we cannot get at least 4 of the next 6 points then the shield and first round byes are very much out of our hands. I hope everyone comes back healthy and not overworked during this international break.

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Given how this team hasn't strung more than 2 wins in a row since 2021. (Okay with the 2022 playoffs and the first two league games we did win 4 in a row just split between years) winning our next 2 is going to be very hard but we have been great at home all year and Becky is back. Fingers crossed it can be done.

6 wins (ORL, CHI, WAS, SEA, NCC, LOU)

2 draw (HOU and LA)

1 loss (KC)

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I think there'll be more musical chairs at the top of the table. We'll lose games we should win, but so will other teams (see: NC and SD today). Having a two-point lead gives us an edge but I'll bet anything the shield and playoff bye slots come down to the last day.

Go Thorns!

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at some point this team is gonna have to win 2 in a row. no time like the present.

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I think 5 points over the next three wins the shield lol

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Statistically, yeah. In that scenario the most Gotham/SD can get is 37...which the Thorns would be on, with a vastly superior goal difference

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Honestly, 4 might do it as long as the loss is to ACFC and not Gotham or SD

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Gotham do have to play the current on the final day who incredibly might not be out of it

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Summary of key moments credits Sincy with the pass to Hina but it was Rocky.

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Sep 17, 2023·edited Sep 18, 2023

Recent Run of Form Rankings:

Form and (points) from 6 most previous matches. Look at who's hot and who's not over the past approx. 1/3rd of the season:

Pride (In the Name of Love): 4-0-2 (12)

ACFCNFT: 3-3-0 (12)

Champipple: 3-1-2 (10)

KCFUBAR: 3-1-2 (10)

No Stars: 3-1-2 (10)

Gotham's Dark Night: 2-3-1 (9)

Loovull: 2-3-1 (9)

Thorns: 2-1-3 (7)

Courgettes: 1-2-3 (5)

DoorDash: 1-2-3 (5)

PSWST: 1-1-4 (4)

DC Kang: 0-3-3 (3)

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Some things to note:

A few of these teams are finally starting to put it together, a few are surprising, and it looks to me like we could have some off-season coaching changes among the respected vets. Namely, something's wrong in Seattle, and I think Parsons could be looking for a job too.

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Reason the infinity those dreary March-April matches are so important, and "finding early season form" is a recipe for failure. By the end of April Fool's Day PTFC was on top of the table with a goal differential of +7.

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Sep 18, 2023·edited Sep 18, 2023

With Alex Morgan leaving the game with an injury…anyone else pondering a Morgan Weaver call up to replace her for this int’l window? If not, what other forwards in the league might fill that spot…? Not trying to be a homer but it has to be her, methinks. Currently tied for 3rd with Debinha in the golden boot race! Thankfully Hatch and Kerolin didn’t bag any this weekend , so Soph’s lead remains intact with 11.

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author

Her call-up is definitely overdue.

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It’ll probably be Hatch, but Weaver should be getting call-ups over Thompson and Purce at this point. I know NT managers are almost universally terrified about making new call-ups based on form, but at some point ya gotta give those bench spots to the players who have, ya know, earned them. Now is also the time, with a new manager who seems to be changing it up a little bit.

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Hatch is already at this camp though. Thompson and Purce as well. I meant specifically for this camp (happening now) for the games this Thursday and Sunday against South Africa. I was just wondering if Alex was out, would they not fill her spot, or would they add another forward. Weaver would be the most obvious spot-filler to me, in that case...

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founding

I'm not sure what i'm missing, but the only time i've ever seen Alyssa Thompson look dangerous was against the Thorns (earlier this season). Granted, i'm not watching alot of ACFC games, but I don't see what everybody else seems to see- to me, she's fast but looks tentative and doesn't work her way to dangerous spots very often.

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ACFC has really eased up on her playing time...She’s only 18, so that makes sense. Her biggest strength right now is ball carrying and that hasn’t quite translated into goals and assists yet. I have no doubt that it will though, she’s a very smart player and has that Soph-like combination of pace and skill that maybe two other players in the entire league do. I get why they want to get her into the national team picture cause she’ll be there for a while.

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Sep 19, 2023·edited Sep 19, 2023

I agree, I think she’s a super talented kid. She has very Mal Swanson-esque tendencies and skill set imo. But, I think ACFC were dying for a hero and hyped the hell outta her initially (which is unfair and not her fault), but she’s still gonna be a very dangerous player in the future. I still think Weaver deserves a call-up over her at this moment, but that decision to make sure she’s on the team smells more political to me. She’s been in the USSF youth pipeline (with her sister, who I think is at Barca or PSG or something?), and again, she plays for sparkly Angel City with a lot of USWNT-adjacent folk.

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Yeah agree with everything. She’s definitely Pugh-esque, but with way more on-ball ability than Pugh did early in her career.

I want Weaver there and she deserves it, but it’s not at all surprising (and doesn’t bother me at all) that the USWNT is making sure Thompson is there. She’s that good.

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She isn't a particularly hard puzzle to solve and has perhaps run into her inevitable rookie wall. Last league play goal was 1st week of May.

Work in progress and as to spot on the nats, do not see it at all. Heck, Liv has more applicable experience.

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Ah yes, yeah she should definitely get that spot, not sure who would even be the second choice. Maybe Bright?

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Sep 18, 2023·edited Sep 18, 2023

Yeah that's a pretty good shout since she's a central forward. She isn't even a in-pen starter for Orlando, though. I think it would be strange for her to get the call up over Weaver, who I think is years ahead of her in development. Of course, getting ahead of myself, but when Alex goes down she seems to be out for a while....

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I agree she is absolutely on fire, But it may depend on the need on the USWNT attacking front. Hatch is more of a like for like with Alex Morgan and I am not sure what they see as a role for Shaw and Fishel. That said I wouldn't trade Weaver for Hatch. I am not sure any other forward, except possibly Lynn Williams, matches Weaver's work rate on defense.

What I noticed in the game against Seattle were Morgan's changes in pace. She is fast and faster. IIRC she hasn't had more than a handful, if that many, offside calls. That is because she has speed to burn. If she is even she is leaving. With all her experience Alex Morgan still gets called on that and if you plotted Thorn's attacking players offside infractions and included Allie Long the graph would need to be on logarithmic paper.

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founding

Agreed, Weaver's strong suit as a fast, high-work-rate compliment to the primary scorers is covered on the USWNT with Williams and Rodman, though, as great as Rodman is, her stats sure don't seem to stand up to Weaver's.

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I’d be surprised if they call up another forward as they’ve already called up seven forwards other than Morgan.

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Ok, how good is Gotham now that they have Esther González? I'm suddenly a lot more worried about them as real competition for us. They managed to put together a pretty good record before she arrived, though they always seemed a bit lucky to be where they are. Is she as good as she looked today?

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author

Esther is a baller. Would not shock me one bit if these teams finished 1-2 in some order.

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I think they’re nearly unquestionably the most *talented* team outside of a full-strength Thorns lineup. Purce-Esther-Williams is a terrifying front three. Still don’t love their midfield or defense especially with their current injury list, but they’re really deep.

I will say that they’re definitely on my list of teams that match up really well with the Thorns because of the chaos and pace they have up front....same reason I think the Thorns match up better with Seattle and SD in comparison to Gotham or even teams like Louisville or Orlando.

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And then being able to bring in Stengel, Iffy, and Guðmundsdóttir as subs. That's some nice depth up top.

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Hard to say. They were definitely the better team against Washington, but Washington haven't looked good in quite a while.

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Pride scored their fastest goal in club history and currently lead 2-0. Hope they stay in front. Nice to have some breathing room in the table. BTW our number two forward might look a little different next time you see her.

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The Pride win that is great!

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Results really went the Thorns way this weekend for sure. Another DOGSO red today. I don't know past season stats on those but it sure seems like a lot have happened this season. Probably a record.

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Without VAR to back them up refs in the NWSL tended to only remember they had a yellow card. I can remember seasons where the teams collectively earned 2 red cards all year.

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