82 Comments

Asprilla is a revelation. I mean, I used to think he was just an awful player 3-4 years ago, but he has slowly come into his own. He plays with his head up, he has game intelligence, he's fixed his touch, and his passing accuracy, he can school defenders 1 v 1, great hold up player, he never stops hustling, and he has that incredible athleticism where he can beat anybody in the air.

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Dairon's intelligence and enthusiasm for the game has been amazing these last few years. On the game-winning goal, his insistance that he was going to win that header was amazing, he was going to get to that ball even if it meant sacrificing his ability to make a safe landing.

The energy he plays with infects this team at times, and he's doing it again.

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Ya, it is remarkable. Also, he defends. And his decision-making has gotten better.

He tries stuff and generates chaos. I said he’s like an MLS Darwin Nuñez in that regard. He also has a knack for scoring clutch goals and is sort of a cult hero. My Liverpool analogy for that us Divock Origi.

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I like this, as much as any comment there is about Asprilla. I’ve had questions about his dribbling, and had questions about his decision making I’ve had questions about his shot line up. But there’s never been any question in my mind that he’s always been an agent of chaos. And now that his skill set and his decision making has matured that agent of chaos factor has been multiplied.

Come to think of it maybe someone from the TA would like to volunteer a Tifo in Asprilla‘s honor as agent of chaos. Isn’t there some DC or Marvel character with this name?

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He's the Timbers equivalent of "chaos muppet" Morgan Weaver on the Thorns. In fact there are more than a few similarities in their game: maximum hustle, nasty 1-on-1 skills, superior athleticism, confidence, etc.

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Back in the old STF site, I once said that Morgan Weaver reminded me of Asprilla and I got reamed for disrespecting Weaver, lol...

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I think they're both wonderful players!

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100%! There's some people that are like "We could do much better than Dairon..." At his price point? No way!

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OMG I love it. Agent of chaos!

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asprilla is on my very short list for team mvp!

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I was thinking the same thing. Also, isn't there a fan favorite award of some kind that Diego Chara usually wins?

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Are you thinking of the TA 'Supporters Player of the Year'? Been a while since Diego Chara won (2015), and at this point a little embarrassing that Ivacic won last year, but Asprilla took the belt in 2021.

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This is exactly the kind of game I was hoping for from the rest of this season. Weird as hell, not exactly dominant, fun to watch, and fortunately the Timbers came out on top. But honestly, I wouldn't have been all that sad with a draw, because, unlike most of this season, I was ENTERTAINED last night. And that's all I'm looking for from my, well, entertainment.

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Will be an interesting last 3 games. As hot as we have been, all 3 are technically winnable - BUT:

1. Does LAG really want the playoffs? They have 5 left, 15 points on the table. The playoffs are within their reach but they have to win - a lot, against 4 of 5 teams who are above the line at present. I suspect we get "hair on fire" LAG before they get pushed out of the playoff picture the following 2 games on the road. They have a leaky defense - most GA in the entire league, which is good for us, possible we could score a lot in this one given the clicking midfield and offense of late. I think 5-4 win or 4-4 draw in this one.

2. Montreal -- I haven't seen them play since very early in the season. They looked pretty good in that game, but their form has been up and down all year (very streaky). Currently they are on 2 points in 5 matches, struggling to stay above the line in the East, and we get them at the end of a 3 game week for them with us being rested mid week, so should be able to start our best available. Lots lines up well for Timbers potential success here, but throw that all out with a late season East Coast trip against a desperate team - I think probably draw or loss in this one.

3. Houston. They embarrassed us in Gio's final game. With as tight as the west is, if we don't get a win in one of the above games, this one is probably fighting for staying out of the play-in game, or even possibly for a high playoff seed for both teams. Houston has 2 weeks off before this game after a stretch of Sa/W/Sa/W/Sa of which they are currently on game #2 (one of which is USOC final where they will play their starters), but that congestion could push them down in the standings before this "decision day" matchup. We will absolutely get their best line up. At home so better opportunity for a win. This game could go any possible way, but should be entertaining as hell with both teams' best lineups and playing for something.

The last 3 games, despite being against teams that are not exactly setting the world on fire, will all be challenges - and here's hoping we are up to them.

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I'm wondering if PTFC can afford to lose or draw any of those 3 games.

It probably depends on the performance of teams like KC and Dallas, who are technically behind us on the table for the time being... but could be well ahead if they win the two games they need to catch up with our matches played.

The season final will be epic, looking forward to it

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While it is certainly possible that we could get knocked out of playoff position with anything less than 9 points, it is highly unlikely. The average team currently in playoff position gets 1.44 PPG. Those averages will break down with 3, 4 or 5 games left to go, the reality is that most teams get less than half a win worth of points out of most games. Even 2nd and 3rd place are getting half of a win out of their average match.

This is something we see every single year (part and parcel to the Timbers under performing under every coach since MLS to start just about every season, except Porter's first) - Timbers fans are usually convinced there is abosolutely no way we can catch up in about June or July. The reality is that it only takes a small run of 10-15 points to dramatically improve your situation in thsi league. It is simply impossible for both PTFC and all of the other teams around us to get 9, 12, 15 points to end the season because teams play each other, these outcomes are mutually exclusive.

I think probably the bottom of the West will be 44-45 points to get in 9th or better place. 49-50 may well get you 2nd place. St Louis probably wins the West (which is pretty amazing for an expansion team given their 8 point separation at present because everyone within striking distance only has 1 game in hand. They would have to crash and burn completely (3 losses) with someone else all but winning out to screw that up. After them there are 6 points separating 2nd from 9th place, 10 points 2nd from 10th place.

I think 4 points will be enough, but would feel a whole lot better about 6 - 7. 9 might be enough to be the host of a best of 3.

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"Timbers fans are usually convinced there is abosolutely no way we can catch up in about June or July"

I'm not convinced of that at all. I'm just super tired of it having to be a thing. I want the Timbers to be competitive from day one of the season.

44 points is probably gonna be the playoff floor this season, and the Timbers will probably get there. I'd just like them to get to 44 points in July or so, so we don't have this annual ridiculous turnaround have to be a thing. As we saw last season, miraculous runs to get into the playoffs are not a repeatable skill, nor should they need to become one.

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I don't disagree, but we see so many people lament halfway through the season in a parity league that we are "done" when we are only 6-8 points off a playoff spot and 10-15 out of first place. It is ridiculous.

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Montreal has 2 ties, 3 losses in their last 5 (inc. 2 losses in their last 3) and LAG has 3 ties, 1 loss, and 1 win. LAG has scored a good bit (1 fewer than Portland, though) but has allowed 12 goals in their last 5 and Montreal has allowed 9 but only scored 3 in their last 5. LAG also played till like 1 AM on Sunday before flying back to LA, so Monday and likely partially Tuesday were shot practice-wise and Puig got off the plane in crutches after limping the whole second half. I think that 3 points are ripe for the taking in LA. Montreal can't score for shit (third lowest in the whole league after Colorado and Toronto (lol, Insigne...)) and over the year have been essentially as leaky as Portland (45 vs. 48 GA), so if we can get up early, we should be able to pick up points there too.

Obviously, there are no gimmes left and the boys will have to play lights out, especially to get to the top 4 and home field advantage (which is massive with the best of 3 series), but I think our chances at more than "draw, loss, and hope for the best" are better than 50%.

Bonus picture: Riqui Puig's ankle today... https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fnzgcheumilqb1.jpg

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Looks like he should have stayed off it second half.

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If both teams keep up their current form and the west remains extremely congested, PTFC vs Houston might actually be the game of decision day, which would be exciting! Should make for a really great game. Of course I’d rather our playoff spot be secured by then

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Getting destroyed by Houston, dropping the coach, making a comeback then facing our former tormentors for payback on decision day, with the playoffs on the line, I love it

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boy the "no coach could get better results with this roster" crowd should be feeling a little silly by now

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Fair. I’m guilty.

We’re even winning without Diego or Evander. Wild.

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Without Diego, Evander, AND Paredes. Might as well throw Ivacic, Yimmi, Ayala, and Williamson in there for extra credit. Those are seven potential starters just based on skill level

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Ayala and Williamson would add zero to the current roster. I mean, they'd be useful depth for sure, but I don't start either of them ahead of Evander, Paredes, Diego, or even Moreno or Acosta in my Best XI.

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Haha, right? As a "Gio gotta go" person, I'll admit that I didn't think a turnaround would be this dramatic. Fun to watch though.

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There was some beautiful justice on that third goal. Rubio went down dying on a soft foul and writhed for three full minutes. He’s then given a yellow walking off the field looking perfectly fit.

Then he watches us score against his ten-man team as he waits to come back on.

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I forgot about that! Yes, given the poor refereeing throughout, that one felt completely justified. And what a tool.

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If you had told me the Timbers would win 3-2 this way before the game started, I would have been a bit disappointed against a team like Colorado. But to be missing the players they were missing and be able to win, this was a really good result! When I saw Evander and Yimmy were both out, I had a bad feeling about the game. But it was great to see other players really step up and play. Antony had a really nice game, Acosta played well, and Asprilla was really solid all game long. Good win!

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Yes, the whole game in general was very weird with questionable refereeing decisions. The overall result is a little disappointing but we got the three points without our entire starting midfield. That’s definitely good enough for me! I’ll admit I was quite worried around the 60th minute mark because I was thinking “man, who’s gonna come off the bench to make a difference? Blanco and Boli maybe, then who else?” But Miles managed to pull the right strings and changed formations with an extra center back and we held on fairly comfortably

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Thats the thing, I'm not disappointed. I was really concerned when Evander and Yimmi were not available, and then they come out and really play well. Along with Paredes that is 3 legit starters on this team, and they will out a 3-2 victory. Its a really good result, and a well earned week break.

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Right, I’m not disappointed either! I didn’t word that properly, I meant that the result on paper is a little disappointing, but considering all the factors and everything that happened during the game, it’s a good result. And proof that even when we’re missing players, we can still have some expectations for this team

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I thought Colorado played with heart, especially considering the circumstances. Certainly made the game more entertaining than a serious drubbing.

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I guess we have some more insight into Ivacic's absence from the scene

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You mean the guy who will never play for the Timbers again?

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Turns out Ivacic's contract expires at the end of 2025. Unfortunately his trade value has plummeted. And what team would want him considering his crap attitude , which no doubt his agent (same as Moreno's former agent) has contributed to.

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I would be surprised if he plays anywhere in MLS again at this point; filing a grievance against your team for not acceding to your demand to be traded, that you make every time you don't play, tends to sour people on you.

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Agree. Perhaps he'll return to Europe. I noticed that Bingham's contract expires at the end of the year. A raise is in his future.

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I sense a "mutually agreed to part ways" message coming on over the winter. Whether that is possible with an ongoing MLSPA investigation we will see.

Translation: Timbers paid him to end his contract early and he never plays at this level again because nobody wants to touch such a terrible attitude.

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Yes, there could be a deal reached or the Timbers could trade him and save money. But Ivacic is damaged goods. His guaranteed annual compensation is $460,000 including base salary of $375,000). That means $115,000 more this year and $920,000 through the end of 2025. Perhaps the Timbers can show he's violated terms of his contract.

Here's a handy way to learn the compensation of any MLS player: https://mlsplayers.org/resources/salary-guide

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Just to add some context: those numbers are published twice a year, once in March and once in Sept. I also use this site (https://www.capology.com/club/portland-timbers/salaries/2023/) which gets a little more granular about contract length and salary breakdown.

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Wow. Paredes gets paid a third as much as Yimmi Chara?

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This roster is a hot mess right now, salary-wise, and it's all thanks to the wonderful work of the departed Gavin Wilkinson. That's why I keep saying this summer is so crucial - a lot of GW's mistakes and over-generous contracts are coming off the books, so they can finally get roster construction right.

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Moreno making half as much as Niezgoda is another good one. That table really puts a lot of this into perspective.

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Thanks. More granular is good!

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I’ve never considered myself pro-grandular

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As long as it's another MLS team giving Bingham that raise, that's fine. I don't want him on the team next year - they can do better.

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He’s been a good backup keeper, especially with man-child Ivacic melting down. Will be intriguing to see if Grabavoy upgrades. Also, when will Sulte be ready for first-team minutes? He’s definitely filling out his tall frame.

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Yeah, and I'm 100% fine with him being a backup. Like with the coaching situation, though, I don't want the team thinking everything is fine with this roster/team now that Gio's gone and they're playing better; Bingham shouldn't be a starter anywhere at this stage of his career. He's working out well now, but over 34 games...no thanks.

Give him a little raise, bring in a better #1, and I'm fine with him sticking around as backup.

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I’d also rather have a different starting keeper, but let’s give the guy some credit, he’s been very solid the last few games and made some key saves

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Sep 25, 2023
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Yeah, it's kinda weird given how inconsistent the US is at producing really good outfield players, that GK is a position where this country does pretty well at producing talent. I'm not worried about finding someone better, especially if they can monetize Ivacic's departure somehow.

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Sep 26, 2023
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I've been trying to figure out exactly what Ivacic's transfer value is and found it to have been 600k and rising since he joined PTFC, at least according to transfermarkt: https://www.transfermarkt.com/ivacic-aljaz-600-tsd-euro-portland-timbers-/thread/forum/609/thread_id/621

Meanwhile Bingham, at least according to transfermarkt, is only 150k and dropping since he joined the timbers: https://www.transfermarkt.com/david-bingham/marktwertverlauf/spieler/176157

I suppose age accounts for a lot of this... Ivacic has more years of soccer in him and would therefore be a better investment?

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Shakespeare-inspired chant proposal:

Can can Ca-Caliskan.

He’a a midfielder. I’m a stan!

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Love the effort, but...oof.

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Will would be disappointed in me.

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i don't know...it's a comedy of errors!

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Substack questions. Several months in and I’m still frustrated.

(1). Can you mark read comments? Search/sort for unread comments?

(2). Can you look for your own post history?

(3). Can you search for another’s post history?

(4). Can you see who has liked a comment?

(5). Can you display comments in different ways— oldest, newest, most comments, etc.?

(6). Can you kill the “see other comments” and “load more” bits and just see the whole convrrsation?

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Best I've been able to do is to choose the comments be displayed chronologically instead of top first. Wish I could set that as the default.

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(1). Can you mark read comments? Search/sort for unread comments?

-- Not that I can find, which is weird with a system that I have to sign into every time.

(2). Can you look for your own post history?

-- Not without using the search feature in my browser (I also have the app on my phone, but use the web based version 99% of the time).

(3). Can you search for another’s post history?

-- Not in any useful way. There is a search function in the top right corner (you have to scroll to get it) on the web version. If I search "Withdrawn Striker" it will take me to articles you have commented on, but not right to the comments.

(4). Can you see who has liked a comment?

-- Using the icon at the top right that looks like a bell ("activity"), it tells you who liked and replied to your posts, but you can't see who likes someone else's comments. Fairly useless and if it is an older comment not very easy to figure out who even liked your own comment without manually scrolling and finding it.

(5). Can you display comments in different ways— oldest, newest, most comments, etc.?

-- At the top of comments section - "Chronological" (which is not the default and I always change to this) = oldest first, "new first" and "top" (which is the default, I presume the comment with the most likes or most responses?) which makes it really hard to follow a thread, thus I always change to chronological.

(6). Can you kill the “see other comments” and “load more” bits and just see the whole convrrsation?

-- Boy do I wish. I have seen other comment platforms like this which are even worse - take you to a new "page" and when you back out of it, you have to start all the way over. But it is annoying to have things hidden. If I want to skip over it, I can scroll past, no need to hide longer conversations web designers!

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Excellent. Thanks.

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I haven't been able to do any of those things.

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I think that goal might be where Dairon Asprilla goes from gotta love him fan favorite to club legend. I just love that goal. Just dominating the hapless defender and putting a throughball header to Mora on a dime. Very early in his tenure, he had a break the laws of physics wonder strike from outside the box that was about the sweetest thing I'd ever seen a Timbers player do. A hypersonic, inverse bending missile to the top corner. But that header man, I dunno, I may tear up if I keep talking about it. Where can we put all the statues?

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Club legend? really? I mean, he's definitely gotten better in the last few months, but let's maybe pump the brakes on talking about his statue until he puts together at least 2-3 more seasons that are as good as the last half of this season has been for him.

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He’s not a club legend in the sense that he’s been a fantastic player his entire tenure, but more in the sense of his story and journey from cult playoff hero, to having strife with Gio, to losing his dad, to coming back and being a legitimate great winger after all that (for like a season and a half). And now he’s an ok winger at this point in his career and has been playing better since Gio left (crazy how that happens), but he’s a legend for me. Just love the guy, even when he’s not playing well

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Oh and not to mention the bicycle kicks and worldies and aerial dominance. Just amazing stuff from the guy

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Rewatched that Antony - Moreno - Caliskan - Moreno build up goal and celebration. Brighten your day right there.

https://youtu.be/vIaqIVRkMT4?si=OX38OR0P0EwmmUVq

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Those were amazing goals. I've seen other good goals in other games around the league, but they seem like more of an individual effort. What we're seeing is some real class and real team effort goals, the likes of which you don't see on a whole lot of other teams. We're special.

Now, about that defense. No, seriously, the backline defense is not a big worry. I chalk it up to three games in a row and not being as sharp as usual. Other than their two shots, they didn't have much else, though. The worry is the goal keeper situation: no backup to Bingham.

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I would argue they didn't have much else because the Timbers have recommitted to possessing more. It is amazing how much pressure it takes off the back line when you have the ball. Possession is defense as much as it is offense.

On Ivacic / Bingham, could be a weird off season. Bingham is going to get some quality offers (he is out of contract). I think we should beat them to the punch and re-sign him as our #1, find a backup (is that Sulte yet? I don't know, haven't seen him play any significant minutes in a while and he is still very young for a keeper at 21). If we don't aggressively try to retain Bingham, we are almost surely signing 2 new keepers this off season.

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I don’t see anyone offering anything much for Bingham, he was a pool keeper for a year and was just training with us before we picked him up. I think we’ll sign him to an extension and sign a new number 1 keeper

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I think it is unrealistic to think the he will end up starting more games than a non-injured "#1" and still take Sulte money (or a small raise). He will get offers that are at least double his current salary, if not up to 4x because his current salary is ridiculously low.

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"Bingham is going to get some quality offers (he is out of contract). I think we should beat them to the punch and re-sign him as our #1"

absolutely not. He's 33, which is not super old for a keeper, but he's also not going to be anything other than what he is now by now. Which isn't 34 games a year good. He's good at stopping shots for the most part, but his distribution is really, really bad (REALLY BAD), and his play out from the back is nonexistent.

Don't be fooled by the small sample size of "he's been good this last month" or by the fact he is a pro athlete who makes less than a lot of reasonably-well-compensated IT people make. He has no business being a starter anywhere (don't forget that he spent the entire 2022 season without a club, and not because he was injured), and he should not be a starter here.

if he wants to go be a starter somewhere and cash in on his small sample size, that's his right; I just don't want it to be here.

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I can all but promise he at gets offers which are 3-4x his current salary which is ridiculously low at $85k/y. That is all I am saying - not that he is suddenly going to command $500k+, but somewhere in the 200-300k region is probable for his next contract. If the Timbers want to keep him, even as a 2nd capable of competing for the starting role, they are going to have to pay more.

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Oh, for sure he'll get a raise. The Timbers wouldn't pay Steve Clark the money he was looking for in a new contract, though, and he was a starter who was a genuine asset to the team. Bingham is a career journeyman who, again, didn't even play in 2022, and if they pay him that $250K or so, though, that means he'll probably be a starter. And that is bad.

The Timbers can do better than David Bingham as a starting GK in that price range. If Bingham wants that money, he should go get it - just don't let it be in Portland.

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Sulte had worst numbers at T2 than Bilichuk. T2 were 4th worst in goals allowed. Obviously this is not all the GKs fault but also does not give me *any* confidence in Sulte being able to step in in any capacity for the first team.

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Asprilla is just a force of nature when he's on. If he could focus on the days he's not, he'd be a world class player. I'm glad he's a Timber. What an exciting player!

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Sep 29, 2023
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I was on that boat last year, and I’m not gonna pretend like I know much about the ins and outs of the Galaxy, but word from others is that he has just not been all that good when he’s started. To the point where it’s a question whether he should be starting over Preston freaking Judd. It’s not a great sign, though I’d be down to take a risk on him if he’s available, at a reasonable price. Hope the problem is the Galaxy, not him. I’m just a little more weary about it now

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Sep 25, 2023Edited
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What the hey, bench Moreno?

My three would be Antony, Yimmi, Williamson.

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agree!

There is nothing better than seeing Moreno and Evander in the midfield together.

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Play Moreno (great offensive form, plays decent defense), bench Evander (loving his offensive form now, but not sold entirely on his consistence of effort and his defense can be a liability), trade Williamson (very high ceiling, but feels like he’s slipping away from this team.)

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