42 Comments

Didn't have much hope for a result with Zup and Bravo out, but dang! Score one of those headers, please. I would have been fine with a 2-2 draw against a good team like Cincy.

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Just cannot compete in MLS with a backline where 2 of 4 guys are not MLS quality. Mabs is, sadly and obviously, now a has-been; Rasmussen was utterly bereft of poise and looks more with every game like a never-will-be.

That group just CANNOT start again - we can't afford it.

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Thats for sure! If the Timbers had Bravo and Zup playing, that could have highly likely made the difference of at least getting a draw or good chance of winning at a good Cincinnati team.

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Mabiala was bad. He’s a great guy as a person, but he’s easily beaten by speedy players on the field. Even so, he spent most of the first half way too far forward. The other Timbers kept having to chase long balls behind Mabiala. When he was in the penalty area, he only guarded space.

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Rasmussen has regressed a bit this year. I still think he has moments and potential as a second string left back but it's not going in the right direction. Mabiala was disasterous, just so much too slow it was painful. That said that first header they scored, while a nice ball and good finish, I kinda put on McGraw. If he'd closed the distance and put any kind of a body on that dude I don't think he gets such a clean touch on it. All around bad game from the back line. On the flip side the Timbers had some great looks and just choked. That Ayala header over the top was painful.

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"...Rasmussen has regressed a bit this year. I still think he has moments and potential as a second string left back but it's not going in the right direction..."

100% this, Delusional Shill; and it's directly because he's been thrown in the deep end and it's way over his head.

The guy has some talent and could likely be an end-of-bench guy in MLS, but he desperately needs coaching in defensive fundamentals and a chance to get seasoning against players of comparable experience. As it is, he's in real danger of losing confidence and the regression we're seeing might even be a sign of that.

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Dude is 24, though... Like what defensive fundamentals is he gonna learn at this point? I hope that we can move on from him after this season. Dude is a USL player at best.

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Hell, I would rather see Bonilla in instead of Rasmussen. Where was he?

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Not too bad against a really good Cincinnati team. Most of their chances came from mistakes on our part thanks to Mabiala and Rasmussen (mostly Mabiala). Having Zuparic and Bravo would’ve made a world of difference. Ayala was great yet again. Evander showed more this game than I think he has all season, we’re most dangerous when he’s on the ball. The game seems to slow down for him and he looks like he sees everything, and then has the skill to pick out any pass. Him and Moreno started to really click, that was exciting. Boli hasn’t been able to show enough of what he can do imo, he seems like a good player but like Evander he hasn’t quite figured the league out and hasn’t established a connection with his teammates. Feels like he gets crowded by defenders as soon as he gets the ball

We could’ve scored several headers today. Ayala and Evander both had free headers. Asprilla had one where he just completely mistimed his jump, and I think he had another one off of a corner kick which he whiffed. Asprilla is usually a monster in the air too. Having Mora on the field today would’ve made such a massive difference. McGraw was again great as usual, and Mosquera was MOTM for me. He’s so much fun to watch, I love how casually he can blow by players

Overall a pretty decent game in all honesty, considering how bad we usually are on the road and how good Cincinnati is. We go to St Louis which is gonna be really difficult, I’m definitely not expecting much from that game. After that our schedule finally gets easier, with back to back games against Austin and Vancouver at home, RSL away, Minnesota at home, then SKC and Seattle away. Minnesota will be the hardest, because we already know that we can beat Seattle. The next month of games will be key to turning our season around

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Minnesota is our fucking kryptonite. Far and away they we have the fewest ppg against them compared to anyone in the West* over the last 7 years. It's not even close.

*Not counting newer teams that we've only played a handful of times.

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At home against Minnesota we have five wins, two losses and a draw, including playoffs. Not a terrible record, though Minnesota always gives us a touch match and they’ve been decent this year without Reynoso. Hopefully during that stretch we can get healthier and get some sort of rhythm. I think we’ll look very different from now until when we play them. I’m not sure they are the kryptonite you say they are

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Within about 20 minutes it was obvious that Cincy's entire game plan was "go at Larrys as much and as hard as you can". And I don't blame them - it worked, because they know what we all know, that Larrys is not starting quality at this point.

While the Timbers didn't play all that badly, particularly in the first half, I will say that all I could think of while watching Cincinnati was "this is the way that Gio says the Timbers want to play". Counter after counter, always moving forward with the ball, good pressing on the defensive end. FCC is good at it; the Timbers are not.

There were some encouraging signs on the offensive end on Saturday, for sure, and once the regular defenders come back, that should shore things up back there a bit. there's still way more "what the hell just happened" moments than I would like to see, but at least yesterday I'm pinning a lot of that on the makeshift back line.

Play the kids on Wednesday, and hopefully next weekend we'll see a more complete performance. I'm still not sold on this team being any good, but yesterday showed me that there is a good future in building around Evander, Mosquera, and Moreno. Evander looked a lot more comfortable yesterday, even though I don't think he's at his best yet, which was good to see.

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Honestly during parts of this game I thought the performance spoke to the West being a bit tougher than the East. Cincy is a good team that has been finding ways to win but they didn't look stellar--we shot ourselves in the foot more than they dominated the result. I'm not totally sure where I stand on that at the end of the day but I don't feel like there are that many teams that are really scary good in the east. Maybe this is just a weird year though. Honestly think when you look at the matchups, the West games are at a bit of a higher level right now. Cincy has been good but if things continue as they are idk if they're as good as their points indicate, while I think a lot of talented West teams have been underperforming.

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I agree. With a makeshift backline it seemed like the Timbers were on the crest of a result.

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Sucks to lose. But there were positive signs. Moreno seems a bit unlocked the last couple weeks. Mosquera continues to set up danger.

We look good when Paredes is on.

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This was a decent game for the Timbers. Played well, but not well enough to beat a legit team. A few weeks ago I feel like they would have been beaten like a drum, but getting players back really helped. That said, losing Bravo and Zup really hurt the team as the drop off to Rasmussen and Mabiala is really big. I would have liked to have seen Miller start in place of Rasmussen, and then bring Rasmussen on for Mabiala at the 60th minute. It is so nice to have Paredes back, but that being said Ayala has played very well the past two games. We need to keep finding minutes for Ayala.

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“We need to keep finding minutes for Ayala”

I remember saying a similar thing at the beginning of last year when he had some really solid performances near the start of the season, at least in my eyes. But then his minutes dropped significantly and he lost rhythm, he was then called to start four games in a row out of nowhere in place of Chara and he wasn’t at his best. Then right after that he played in only two of the next seven games for a total of 16 minutes right before starting on decision day, and he wasn’t good. We can’t let that happen again, we gotta give him consistent good minutes, not only to continue his development but also because he’s just a damn good player

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Yes. More good stuff after the first several games went by with very little offense. At Cincy, the team had plenty of quality possession. Now it’s time to play a bit sharper in the final third. And to get more injured players back!!

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Just keep in mind we have played the toughest schedule in MLS, by a good bit. I calculate the record of opponents based on home and away results, and our average opponent PPG is 1.85 PPG. 2nd place is DC United at 1.64 PPG.

I mean we've already played the #2 and #3 teams in the east (both on the road I might add), and the #1, #2, #3, and #4 teams in the west. Yes we have a tough hill to climb but the schedule will be a bit easier going forward (22nd hardest for remainder of the season) and (hopefully) we'll eventually start getting healthy.

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Yes but... in reality the Timbers are cooked. We will get killed by St. Louis, and still be on 8 pts. after 10 games. The *best* case scenario after 11 games, effectively the 1/3 mark of the season, is 11 pts, i.e. on pace for a blistering 34 pt. season. We would have to average almost 2 pts a game the rest of the season to become a serious playoff team (sorry, not buying an 8th or 9th seed with a losing record will be any kind of threat). What would give anyone reason to believe that's even remotely a possibility? Y. Chara and the remains of Blanco are not going to save us. Neither is getting a rusty Mora back in July or August going to make much of a difference. The MLS season is all but over, and the best we can realistically hope for is to see Mosquera and Moreno continue to make progress and hope Evander can learn how to fit in, and we finally get some defender depth, so we can come back stronger next season.

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In reality MLS is wild and anything can happen. Will Blanco, Yimmi, and Mora save us? No. But what can save us is improvement from players who are already playing. Evander is still playing with pain, he said that after this past game after he put in a very solid performance in his only fourth start of the year. He still has plenty of room to improve and adapt. Boli has only started two games, he can get better as he adapts. If Paredes can find form he fits in very well. Moreno has been steadily improving throughout the season. Asprilla is just finding form. Players are starting to gel. We just went toe to toe with one of the top contenders for supporters shield. Our schedule has been hard as hell so far, and will even out soon

Not saying we will turn things around, just saying there are reasons to have a bit of faith if you choose. It’s more fun than being depressed about everything. We thought we’d get killed by Dallas, Seattle, and Cinci, but those ended up being our three best performances of the year. St. Louis is very strong and I’m not expecting great things from that game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we look better than we expect. It is far from over. This is MLS

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If we set 48 points as the entry point for the playoffs, which is the average points of the last-playoff-place finisher in the Western Conference since 2011, that means the Timbers need 40 points from their remaining 25 games to make the playoffs, or 1.6 PPG. They're currently playing at a 0.89 PPG pace.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's a biiiiiiiiiig hill to climb, and with each subsequent good-performance-but-bad-result game, that hill gets more and more mountainous.

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Apr 26, 2023·edited Apr 26, 2023

And also, despite that, I'm not depressed about everything - there are encouraging signs from the last couple weeks, and definitely getting guys healthy is gonna help. But this season is playing out as I'd feared in January/Feb - by the time they get it all together, health and play-quality wise, it might be too late, as far as playoff qualification goes.

I'll still go to all the home games, I still love watching the team (most of the time), but I'm adjusting my expectations almost on the fly every week at this point because this team right now is very much a work in progress. It's fun to watch the Morenos/Ayalas/Mosqueras play and develop, and that's what I'm focusing on this season - how we'll be set up for next season.

If we make the playoffs this year, that's awesome, but I'm not expecting it - I am expecting next season to be dramatically better, though, so I'll focus on the fun individual storylines for now and we'll see where it goes.

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And Ayala too, don't want to forget about hopes for his development too.

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Yes, I am done with the wait till everyone gets back or wait until this team gels. Even fully healthy they have a big mountain to climb with a lot of breaks going their way. I hope the teams has more faith than I do ;)

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https://youtu.be/1zvQavgbwWE

Highlight video for Evander! He had a pretty solid game, really. I want to point out the clip at 1:09. This is a great example of how narrow we play, with Mosquera being the only one to provide some sort of width. Boli and Asprilla are both making essentially the same run away from Evander, right to goal. Evander is then just dribbling into empty space with no one in front of him. He does well with a flick to Ayala but when we get Evander in that sort of space we have to take better advantage of it. He’s got tons of time and is a good distance away from goal, the team needs to work on making these moments more dangerous, because when they do, good things happen. Case and point: the clip at 6:40

Also I want to point out - the sequence at 6:05 is one of the best sequences of play I’ve seen from the Timbers in a long time. That was really nice, and a reminder that Moreno, Evander, Boli, and Paredes may be a really great collective on the field

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founding

Somehow this loss was a positive result. Didn't get to see whole match, maybe 60 percent throughout the full ninety. Committed to attacking soccer not just sitting back. Much more enjoyable to watch some quality play out there. If the Timbers can go out there and play entertaining football. and lose to a quality side I am ok with that. Was that Llamosa?

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It was exciting to watch but then frustrating to see the result when the goals were there to be had.

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But that’s progress! It’s much better that we’re frustrated with not putting away chances than feeling nothing at all from a completely listless performance

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The positive spin is good, and much appreciated. The reality is the Timbers seem to be forever mired in the "can't get all our players on the field at the same time" zone. When is it ever going to come together for this team?

It was very frustrating to see Mabiala out there. They had no other option, except play Miller at CB, and we haven't seen that yet, and I wonder why, when there has been the opportunity. Does he not rate at CB? Are they thinking he is a worse option than Mabiala? How is that possible?! (Sorry Larrys!)

I have to believe that Gio has his imprint on the lineup and Llamosa executed it. Does Gio think outside the box? Ever? Ancelotti puts Camavinga, one of the most highly touted midfielders in the game, to go play left back because they need him out there. He gets the job done. It works - for the most part - because he is a good player and is the best option, despite him being a midfielder. But no one would ever think to do something like that unless you had to, and there have been plenty of opportunities for the Timbers to think outside the box this year - not in tactical stuff but personnel.

The simple operative procedure is to get the best players on the field. What we saw is that Gio rates Mabiala over Miller at CB, and Rasmussen over anyone else. You could also say that he has limited options when even one CB is out, and that is on the front office. The result is that the Timbers are shaky in the back beyond the starters, and despite their best efforts offensively, can't overcome that shakiness. So, despite the optimism on your part, I see the Timbers hovering around the playoff line, showing glimpses of what could be, but more often than not, missing players, and missing opportunities to play the best 11 through the rest of the year.

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I agree with everything you’re saying. I’d much rather have Miller at CB than Mabiala. I think Gio sometimes believes in his players more than he should

I’m just happy to see progress through the types of conversations we’re having here

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It was painful watching Mabiala play at Cincinnati. It seemed that any other Timbers player would have been better at center back, even a forward. Why is he allowed to ever cross the midfield line? I like his personality and he seems like a supportive teammate, but he is not a plus on defense.

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It's still kinda mind blowing to me that we moved Tuiloma and then failed to add a replacement. They must have thought they were getting good value for him and would easily add a CB that was an upgrade but they're not so easy to come by. Bill got "pass of the week" this week for a great long diagonal leading to a goal for Charlotte. Really thought this would be his year to claim a starting spot full time in Portland. If we don't add someone at least at that level then letting him go was a big mistake.

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Apr 24, 2023·edited Apr 24, 2023

The point of moving Tuiloma was not to add a like-for-like or better replacement. It was done to get salary budget charge relief, and to start to fix the financial mess GW made of the roster. Eric Miller is the stopgap there until the Timbers' cap woes ease up.

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We’re reportedly trying to sign a “top CB target” by the end of today according to Tom Bogert, so hopefully that goes through because we desperately need it

When we traded away Bill so close to the start of the season it felt like we would have a replacement ready to go, but that wasn’t true

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We obviously need to practice headers on frame more by the forwards and midfielders. Should have put at least one of those chances in. Cincy sure did on a low probability angled cross and a good finish.

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Evander, Ayala, and even Asprilla all had wide open headers they should’ve scored in the first half. Knowing we had three clear chances to score in the first half is honestly really refreshing because so far this year we’ve rarely had three shots at all in one half...

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Again, I agree that the extra attacking efforts were a positive development for the Timbers, creating a good game to watch. Also, the Timbers had a lot more quality passes and creative play in the midfield and the offensive buildup. A tying goal and a winning goal would have completed a solid performance on the road.

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"Was that Llamosa?"

I was wondering that myself but I didn't want to say anything because my anti-Gio bias is well known. I would assume that Gio was heavily involved in training/prep during the week, and I would also assume he was in contact with the staff one way or the other during the game. I know he can't be on Llamosa's AirPods during a game, but he was probably talking with someone on the ground in Cincinnati and giving feedback.

I would love to give all the credit for a decent performance to Llamosa, and maybe there is something about Gio not being on the sidelines that gave the team a different feel, but I have a sense that Gio was as involved this week as he always is, except on game day.

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Yeah the coaching staff is just there to execute Gio’s game plan when he’s not there. I never take anything away from that

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