You quoted it yourself: "Portland, meanwhile, are just weird. They’re still a super talented team individually, but the pieces don’t fit to provide enough balance."
Fleming is like the poster child for this. Worked tirelessly to go from "what do you do on this squad" to "good piece for this squad", but somehow still seems like eleven good players all doing their own things rather than a big wheel rolling.
I agree that Sinc will start tomorrow. What's weird, though, is that Sinc BARELY played in the 2022 semifinal match against SD. Remember that? Her pal Rhian recognized that they would need more pace than Sinc could deliver? That was TWO YEARS AGO.
That said, what would be a better option? Linnehan? Spaanstra?
Plus, there's always the chance that Sinc pots a poacher's goal for us. It's just a question of whether the chance of her helping us outweighs the risk of us getting run off the field.
I would start Linnehan and have the trio of her, Weaver and Smith harass the hell out of the Gotham backline, maybe get a cheap goal out of it. Will also put pressure on their midfield to get the ball out of their half. With Sinc, it's almost a free pass and you can't really pressure with just two. Besides, I give Linnehan just as good a chance at scoring as Sinc.
That lineup will also play Hina at some point a bit deeper than that harassing front line, ready to use her terrific speed of reaction and decision-making to pounce on any opportunity created and turn it instantly into an attack. We can't conduct our game at granny speed against Gotham and have a chance.
Sinclair's superpower seems to be that when she's on the field the defense is even more likely to collapse on Smith and Weaver and leave her open. Also, if she has time she's still a great goal scorer.
I won't be mad if she starts this game. Yeah, I'd prefer Linnehan in theory, but on the road in a QF, I'm fine with Sinc. I'd also be worried that if Sinc doesn't start, there's a decent chance we'd see Moultrie on the RW which is actually worse imo.
(Sinc starting is also a lot more palatable when Smith and Weaver are both available)
I think the only real wild cards are whether 1) having most of their important players back will help Portland enough to overcome 2) KenBall's obvious tactical limitations (everyone and their dog has figured out Smith hero-ball), with the 3) SincMiracleWin being the real black swan - was it a big enough dopamine hit to spark this squad into a mad three-game playoff run?
I won't say that's impossible. ALL the Thorns playoff runs have started from below the top seed. Admittedly this is as low as it goes; short another miracle we will not host anything.
But...remember 2013. CPC was going to bottle the final regular season match, accepting a road draw in Seattle. Someone...perhaps...Christine Sinclair! said "fuck THAT" and scored in the 83rd minute to take the win into the semifinal. There in Kansas City the Thorns were down 2-nil at the half hour and needed an Allie Long overtime goal to make the Final in Rochester, where we all remember what happened.
So...I dunno. I'm not super optimistic, but I'm also not utterly despairing. Upsets happen, teams can rise to glory, playoff soccer is a different thing. We'll see.
Any starting lineup with Sinc up front is SOP Ken SurrenderBall. Which is why I expect him to do just that.
Fool me once, Ken. There's talent enough, relative health and after the last win, energy to grab the road upset. The bwaaain trust needs to allow the Thorns space to accomplish this.
I watched the KC v. NC match today. Everyone, and I mean everyone, on the field can out pace Sinclair. As I've said for years, speed kills. I look at KC and Orlando as proof.
My biggest concern for tomorrow is not whether Sinc starts, but whether Hubly does. I'm pretty confident she will, but I can't for the life of me figure out what the reasoning would be....and she's far more likely to contribute directly to a loss and has a clear better player sitting on the bench behind her, whereas I'm less enthusiastic about the options behind Sinc.
Hoping Soph is available for more than 45 mins, otherwise I think it's gonna be a long game for us. Gotham generally starts really hot with a super high press, and Portland really slow. Having Soph out there for only the first 45 (when Gotham generally accrues their highest xG) could be the dagger for us if she comes out at half. We'll need to accrue a lead, somehow.
He's right! She's so big and strong that it's not always as obvious as when it happens to Soph, but it's the exact same stuff- Defenders can't catch her so they just kick, grab, and hack.
Of course he's right, but he's aggrieved about it, as if the Current doesn't target Soph and other big scoring threats just as much. It's the hypocrisy I was calling out.
Sure, but I'd want and expect Gale to do the same if it was Smith, regardless of the hypocrisy. I think we all would.
I think his main complaint is less that the other teams do it, more that the refs don't do anything to punish/discourage it. Which is also my complaint when it happens to Soph.
Certainly agree with you there. Teams get around the persistent fouling rule by spreading the fouls around, and it's hard to think how to counter that, but it needs to be done. Card the coach for unsportsmanlike tactics?
Persistent infringement is *supposed* to be a team offense as much an individual one. Refs are supposed to warn the captain if they notice targeted infringements and book whoever the next player is regardless. Of course, they'd have to be good at their jobs to do that, so they don't actually do so.
It's not just that she's big and strong, though. It's all of her pushing, shoving, holding, grabbing, hooking, stiffarming. As long as the refs continue to allow that.... in a game that is supposed to be played without your arms and hands... then defenders don't have much choice. As I said in a different thread, I think we're seeing the beginning of the formation of "The Jordan Rules" for dealing with Chawinga. Only difference is that in Jordan's case, he didn't deserve the physical play against him when it started. In Chawinga's case, all you have to do is watch how she roughhouses defenders; that started long before what we saw yesterday.
Could not disagree more. She's a physical athlete with a tremendous defensive work rate, which is why we see her in more duels than other players in her positions. Hell yeah she roughhouses defenders! She should! Soccer is a physical game (which actually, yes, often does get played with arms and hands), and teams need to adapt or keep getting beat. If that includes giving it to her the other direction and hoping the refs let it go, that's fine!
If anything, I'd argue she gets refereed differently than other players the other direction in the same way Shaq did: She doesn't get the benefit of the doubt because she's faster and stronger, so smaller players are allowed to do all the things she gets called for without repercussions.
(Also, Jordan ABSOLUTELY deserved the physical play. Dude was one of the underrated nastiest players in the league, it's one of the many reasons he was so good)
Jordan Rules started before Jordan became dirty himself. He was not dirty on his way up. Maybe that's part of why the Bulls weren't able to get past the Pistons in those first few years, tho. He certainly learned the lesson.
Which brings me to Chawinga, and where this is heading.
Go back and rewatch how Chawinga manhandled (yes, that's the word I want) our defenders here. Stiffarms to truck people on the way to the goal. Grabbing, hooking, holding. This was going on LONG before yesterday. She doesn't need to do it to be effective, and it's making the game worse, because there's not much you can do except return the favor.
https://www.allforxi.com/2024/11/9/24292355/jessie-fleming-ready-for-nwsl-playoff-debut-with-portland-thorns-canwnt-canada
You quoted it yourself: "Portland, meanwhile, are just weird. They’re still a super talented team individually, but the pieces don’t fit to provide enough balance."
Fleming is like the poster child for this. Worked tirelessly to go from "what do you do on this squad" to "good piece for this squad", but somehow still seems like eleven good players all doing their own things rather than a big wheel rolling.
That's totally on the gaffer, not Fleming.
Can he pull the right strings today? We'll see!
Roster construction problem. Check.
Coaching acumen problem. Check.
Release, the anti-Ken.
I agree that Sinc will start tomorrow. What's weird, though, is that Sinc BARELY played in the 2022 semifinal match against SD. Remember that? Her pal Rhian recognized that they would need more pace than Sinc could deliver? That was TWO YEARS AGO.
That said, what would be a better option? Linnehan? Spaanstra?
Plus, there's always the chance that Sinc pots a poacher's goal for us. It's just a question of whether the chance of her helping us outweighs the risk of us getting run off the field.
I would start Linnehan and have the trio of her, Weaver and Smith harass the hell out of the Gotham backline, maybe get a cheap goal out of it. Will also put pressure on their midfield to get the ball out of their half. With Sinc, it's almost a free pass and you can't really pressure with just two. Besides, I give Linnehan just as good a chance at scoring as Sinc.
That lineup will also play Hina at some point a bit deeper than that harassing front line, ready to use her terrific speed of reaction and decision-making to pounce on any opportunity created and turn it instantly into an attack. We can't conduct our game at granny speed against Gotham and have a chance.
Sinclair's superpower seems to be that when she's on the field the defense is even more likely to collapse on Smith and Weaver and leave her open. Also, if she has time she's still a great goal scorer.
I won't be mad if she starts this game. Yeah, I'd prefer Linnehan in theory, but on the road in a QF, I'm fine with Sinc. I'd also be worried that if Sinc doesn't start, there's a decent chance we'd see Moultrie on the RW which is actually worse imo.
(Sinc starting is also a lot more palatable when Smith and Weaver are both available)
I think the only real wild cards are whether 1) having most of their important players back will help Portland enough to overcome 2) KenBall's obvious tactical limitations (everyone and their dog has figured out Smith hero-ball), with the 3) SincMiracleWin being the real black swan - was it a big enough dopamine hit to spark this squad into a mad three-game playoff run?
I won't say that's impossible. ALL the Thorns playoff runs have started from below the top seed. Admittedly this is as low as it goes; short another miracle we will not host anything.
But...remember 2013. CPC was going to bottle the final regular season match, accepting a road draw in Seattle. Someone...perhaps...Christine Sinclair! said "fuck THAT" and scored in the 83rd minute to take the win into the semifinal. There in Kansas City the Thorns were down 2-nil at the half hour and needed an Allie Long overtime goal to make the Final in Rochester, where we all remember what happened.
So...I dunno. I'm not super optimistic, but I'm also not utterly despairing. Upsets happen, teams can rise to glory, playoff soccer is a different thing. We'll see.
Brief playoff discussion here, too: https://rivetingpdx.com/2024/11/07/this-is-not-my-beautiful-house/
Any starting lineup with Sinc up front is SOP Ken SurrenderBall. Which is why I expect him to do just that.
Fool me once, Ken. There's talent enough, relative health and after the last win, energy to grab the road upset. The bwaaain trust needs to allow the Thorns space to accomplish this.
I watched the KC v. NC match today. Everyone, and I mean everyone, on the field can out pace Sinclair. As I've said for years, speed kills. I look at KC and Orlando as proof.
Yes, even Almuth Schult - Germany's answer to Bella Bixby - and Casey Murphy can outpace Sinclair.
https://btvc.beehiiv.com/p/nwsl-playoff-preview-nj-ny-gotham-fc-vs-portland-thorns-2024
"Portland, meanwhile, are just weird. They’re still a super talented team individually, but the pieces don’t fit to provide enough balance."
"[N]ow that things have gotten even worse than they were under Norris, they’re out of moves.."
"[T]he one other player who’s been determined to have a spectacular season despite the bumbling weirdness around her, Hina Sugita."
Have to give MarPar's McKeown experiment four stars, not easy for a striker to make that switch. She's quite accomplished now.
Same starting 11 as last game, except start Linnehan... victory damn near assured.
My biggest concern for tomorrow is not whether Sinc starts, but whether Hubly does. I'm pretty confident she will, but I can't for the life of me figure out what the reasoning would be....and she's far more likely to contribute directly to a loss and has a clear better player sitting on the bench behind her, whereas I'm less enthusiastic about the options behind Sinc.
Yeah, I'd feel better about Obaze's touch and composure out there.
Sheehan and Davidson both questionable for tomorrow- Both really important pieces, especially Sheehan with no Dunn available either.
I never want to see Michelle Kang dancing and high-fiving again. On an own-goal, no less.
Damn, for 5 minutes there I thought we were halfway to a home semifinal match. Maybe still. Go BAY!
SurrenderBall it is. You be you, Ken.
I just don't understand starting Hubly.
Probably just maturity - lots of playoff experience. But it's not the choice I would have made.
Hoping Soph is available for more than 45 mins, otherwise I think it's gonna be a long game for us. Gotham generally starts really hot with a super high press, and Portland really slow. Having Soph out there for only the first 45 (when Gotham generally accrues their highest xG) could be the dagger for us if she comes out at half. We'll need to accrue a lead, somehow.
Any idea if the broadcast will move to "ESPN+ only" if Washington-BFC is drawn at full time? That'd suck; the streaming is subscription-only.
SWAG they delay kick. Regular season they move it to MTV or HSN or Weather Channel.
I'd guess ESPN2 or ESPNNews
Kingsbury the Spirit's spirit.
Per Kassouf on ESPN: Andonovski is complaining about other teams "targeting" Chawinga. Pretty rich!
He's right! She's so big and strong that it's not always as obvious as when it happens to Soph, but it's the exact same stuff- Defenders can't catch her so they just kick, grab, and hack.
Of course he's right, but he's aggrieved about it, as if the Current doesn't target Soph and other big scoring threats just as much. It's the hypocrisy I was calling out.
Sure, but I'd want and expect Gale to do the same if it was Smith, regardless of the hypocrisy. I think we all would.
I think his main complaint is less that the other teams do it, more that the refs don't do anything to punish/discourage it. Which is also my complaint when it happens to Soph.
Certainly agree with you there. Teams get around the persistent fouling rule by spreading the fouls around, and it's hard to think how to counter that, but it needs to be done. Card the coach for unsportsmanlike tactics?
Persistent infringement is *supposed* to be a team offense as much an individual one. Refs are supposed to warn the captain if they notice targeted infringements and book whoever the next player is regardless. Of course, they'd have to be good at their jobs to do that, so they don't actually do so.
I didn't know that. Thanks. I wish it would happen.
Name the players
19 games, 18 fouls committed 29 fouls sustained.
26 games, 36 fouls committed 27 fouls sustained.
It's not just that she's big and strong, though. It's all of her pushing, shoving, holding, grabbing, hooking, stiffarming. As long as the refs continue to allow that.... in a game that is supposed to be played without your arms and hands... then defenders don't have much choice. As I said in a different thread, I think we're seeing the beginning of the formation of "The Jordan Rules" for dealing with Chawinga. Only difference is that in Jordan's case, he didn't deserve the physical play against him when it started. In Chawinga's case, all you have to do is watch how she roughhouses defenders; that started long before what we saw yesterday.
Could not disagree more. She's a physical athlete with a tremendous defensive work rate, which is why we see her in more duels than other players in her positions. Hell yeah she roughhouses defenders! She should! Soccer is a physical game (which actually, yes, often does get played with arms and hands), and teams need to adapt or keep getting beat. If that includes giving it to her the other direction and hoping the refs let it go, that's fine!
If anything, I'd argue she gets refereed differently than other players the other direction in the same way Shaq did: She doesn't get the benefit of the doubt because she's faster and stronger, so smaller players are allowed to do all the things she gets called for without repercussions.
(Also, Jordan ABSOLUTELY deserved the physical play. Dude was one of the underrated nastiest players in the league, it's one of the many reasons he was so good)
Two disagreements:
Jordan Rules started before Jordan became dirty himself. He was not dirty on his way up. Maybe that's part of why the Bulls weren't able to get past the Pistons in those first few years, tho. He certainly learned the lesson.
Which brings me to Chawinga, and where this is heading.
Go back and rewatch how Chawinga manhandled (yes, that's the word I want) our defenders here. Stiffarms to truck people on the way to the goal. Grabbing, hooking, holding. This was going on LONG before yesterday. She doesn't need to do it to be effective, and it's making the game worse, because there's not much you can do except return the favor.
I sure as hell hope your use of that word isn't for the the reason I think it is.
Call the waahmbulance.
I take it back y'all. Totally forgot Kouassi was out this week too cause of the suspension, def would have rather faced this Spirit lineup lol
(Though also, why are they leaving Santos on the bench for an NRI??)