Season. Is. Over. Not even pissed at this point. Sad, but not pissed. Needed to win nearly all their home games and get points on the road from here on out. Will probably start Mabiala for Zup next week at KC. No way this team gets higher than 9th seed, losing in first round. Maybe not even playoffs.
What exactly confuses you? Timbers have 16 pts. on 14 games. They're in 8th place in the west, but have played 1 or 2 more games than most other west teams. They have no depth at CB, no depth at fullback, and have been decimated by injury in the midfield. Their starting CBs, while good, are yellow card accumulation machines, in part because the midfield and frontline don't provide much defensive help (apart from D. Chara, but he can't be everywhere). Their attacking options seem for the most part not great at finishing. There's no help coming -- Evander, Boli, and Miller are the help we got this year. If you're counting on Mora to rescue us, you're delusional. There's no way this team achieves anything more than a token, brief, undeserved playoff appearance, if even that.
I am not going to disagree about the Timbers and that thus far they have shown us nothing to suggest they are anything better than an average team. We can argue about "deserving", but with MLS' playoff design where 9/14 teams (64%) make the post season, there is a lot of mediocrity in those 4-6 lowest teams represented ... you could just as easily argue that if Austin, Vancouver, Minnesota, Dallas, St Louis make the playoffs they are undeserving too.
And as many points as we have dropped we know a short spurt of good form does wonders in this parity league. 3 wins in a row would vault us up to 25 points which is currently first place in the west.
It is far too early to talk about games in hand and while traditionalists love to talk about those when it comes to playoff lines, playoff positioning, etc., we have learned every single season that in a parity league, where there are a ton of draws and the average team earns 1.36 PPG this season, the west bringing the league average down at 1.31 PPG, any team that suddenly has a couple wins in a row will vault up the standings.
The MLS Timbers history has never been one of attempting to chase the SS or a high playoff seed. It has been go through the motions for 4-5 months, turn it on in August-October and just get into the playoffs. That is the club culture because that is all the league demands and it has taken us to 3 cup finals, winning one.
While I started as "don't disagree about the Timbers" because I felt this was a rebuilding year - seeing what we have with the young guys and waiting for some contracts to expire at the end of the season so we can go shopping again. But the team has also shown us that they are capable of being absolute trash (first 6 weeks of the season) and also capable of being above average. The thing about this league is that you are never out of it until October or you lose in the playoffs. Even the 6 teams below us in the standings who have been as bad or worse than we have been all season long could still go either way and even could upset someone in the playoffs.
Well, if you look at a single game, any team can be "above average". If they win, they get three points, which is well above leave average for points per game. But averages matter only when a significant number of games have been played. The timbers have completed 41% of their season, and they are well below average. That might dramatically turn around, but I tend to doubt it. And the fact that most of their competitors have games in hand is completely relevant.
And the "if they win three in a row they'd be top of the table" hypothetical is silly, even apart from the strong likelihood 3 straights wins won't happen. The top teams aren't standing still; the Timbers go to the top of the table in that scenario only if all the current top teams stop accumulating points, which they won't. I remember people making the same kind of argument last year after the usual slow start-- "they'll go on a run in late summer and fall and leap up the table". How'd that work out last year? And we're arguably worse than last year. Just because it worked in prior years doesn't mean it's an acceptable strategy. Ever hear of regression to the mean?
The one mitigating factor is there's two more playoff spots in each conference, which is solely a money grab and which I have labeled undeserving. You could argue even 7 is too many. I'm old fashioned--I believe you should have at least a .500 record to deserve a shot at post-season glory. Maybe that's not the most relevant metric for soccer, maybe it should be 1.5 or 1.4 ppg. The exact number isn't important, it's just that there should some standard greater than "you barely escaped being one of the worst five teams in your conference". There are guaranteed to be many losing teams in the playoffs this year. For me, that's a reason to criticize the league, not to celebrate the non-competitive teams that slink into the last playoff spots. Not only do you never get relegated for stinking up the pitch, you might get a shot at MLS Cup!
I'd literally rather the Timbers miss the playoffs than grab one of the last two playoff spots. It might prompt some reflection on the makeup and direction of the team to miss the playoffs two straight years, despite a ridiculous 9 spots this year. Though with players such as Rasmussen and Mabiala a part of the playing rotation this year (and NOT as emergency roster adds due to injuries), you have to wonder if the ownership actually gives a fuck anymore.
Perfect weather. Playing at home. Satisfying draw on the road Wednesday. All the pieces in place for a solid game. Really hope to see Seba kick some Loon across the field.
1000% on goalie. Married to his stupid line again.
The defenders could choose not to let him get such a clean shot at the end of the game as well....
I have to agree. We all thought he’d come out and end that. Unfortunate
Hey, at least Seattle lost to Vancouver
I’m trying to cope here
Yes. I'm so glad I watched the whole game for that ending. SO. GLAD.
Is it best to get out of the way to not instruct the goalie instead of try to block the shot? Seemed like the defender got out of the way.
Great effort by Chara completely wasted. Time to start the rebuild.
Gross
Season. Is. Over. Not even pissed at this point. Sad, but not pissed. Needed to win nearly all their home games and get points on the road from here on out. Will probably start Mabiala for Zup next week at KC. No way this team gets higher than 9th seed, losing in first round. Maybe not even playoffs.
Wut?
What exactly confuses you? Timbers have 16 pts. on 14 games. They're in 8th place in the west, but have played 1 or 2 more games than most other west teams. They have no depth at CB, no depth at fullback, and have been decimated by injury in the midfield. Their starting CBs, while good, are yellow card accumulation machines, in part because the midfield and frontline don't provide much defensive help (apart from D. Chara, but he can't be everywhere). Their attacking options seem for the most part not great at finishing. There's no help coming -- Evander, Boli, and Miller are the help we got this year. If you're counting on Mora to rescue us, you're delusional. There's no way this team achieves anything more than a token, brief, undeserved playoff appearance, if even that.
I am not going to disagree about the Timbers and that thus far they have shown us nothing to suggest they are anything better than an average team. We can argue about "deserving", but with MLS' playoff design where 9/14 teams (64%) make the post season, there is a lot of mediocrity in those 4-6 lowest teams represented ... you could just as easily argue that if Austin, Vancouver, Minnesota, Dallas, St Louis make the playoffs they are undeserving too.
And as many points as we have dropped we know a short spurt of good form does wonders in this parity league. 3 wins in a row would vault us up to 25 points which is currently first place in the west.
It is far too early to talk about games in hand and while traditionalists love to talk about those when it comes to playoff lines, playoff positioning, etc., we have learned every single season that in a parity league, where there are a ton of draws and the average team earns 1.36 PPG this season, the west bringing the league average down at 1.31 PPG, any team that suddenly has a couple wins in a row will vault up the standings.
The MLS Timbers history has never been one of attempting to chase the SS or a high playoff seed. It has been go through the motions for 4-5 months, turn it on in August-October and just get into the playoffs. That is the club culture because that is all the league demands and it has taken us to 3 cup finals, winning one.
While I started as "don't disagree about the Timbers" because I felt this was a rebuilding year - seeing what we have with the young guys and waiting for some contracts to expire at the end of the season so we can go shopping again. But the team has also shown us that they are capable of being absolute trash (first 6 weeks of the season) and also capable of being above average. The thing about this league is that you are never out of it until October or you lose in the playoffs. Even the 6 teams below us in the standings who have been as bad or worse than we have been all season long could still go either way and even could upset someone in the playoffs.
Well, if you look at a single game, any team can be "above average". If they win, they get three points, which is well above leave average for points per game. But averages matter only when a significant number of games have been played. The timbers have completed 41% of their season, and they are well below average. That might dramatically turn around, but I tend to doubt it. And the fact that most of their competitors have games in hand is completely relevant.
And the "if they win three in a row they'd be top of the table" hypothetical is silly, even apart from the strong likelihood 3 straights wins won't happen. The top teams aren't standing still; the Timbers go to the top of the table in that scenario only if all the current top teams stop accumulating points, which they won't. I remember people making the same kind of argument last year after the usual slow start-- "they'll go on a run in late summer and fall and leap up the table". How'd that work out last year? And we're arguably worse than last year. Just because it worked in prior years doesn't mean it's an acceptable strategy. Ever hear of regression to the mean?
The one mitigating factor is there's two more playoff spots in each conference, which is solely a money grab and which I have labeled undeserving. You could argue even 7 is too many. I'm old fashioned--I believe you should have at least a .500 record to deserve a shot at post-season glory. Maybe that's not the most relevant metric for soccer, maybe it should be 1.5 or 1.4 ppg. The exact number isn't important, it's just that there should some standard greater than "you barely escaped being one of the worst five teams in your conference". There are guaranteed to be many losing teams in the playoffs this year. For me, that's a reason to criticize the league, not to celebrate the non-competitive teams that slink into the last playoff spots. Not only do you never get relegated for stinking up the pitch, you might get a shot at MLS Cup!
I'd literally rather the Timbers miss the playoffs than grab one of the last two playoff spots. It might prompt some reflection on the makeup and direction of the team to miss the playoffs two straight years, despite a ridiculous 9 spots this year. Though with players such as Rasmussen and Mabiala a part of the playing rotation this year (and NOT as emergency roster adds due to injuries), you have to wonder if the ownership actually gives a fuck anymore.
SWIWS
Oh, god, not again
Pretty uninspired first half. Gotta feeling Evander is gonna be the one to unlock this game
Perfect weather. Playing at home. Satisfying draw on the road Wednesday. All the pieces in place for a solid game. Really hope to see Seba kick some Loon across the field.