Happy Mon- er, Tue- er, Wednesday! (This thread is like a wizard: it is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to).
Welcome to the Weekly Open Discussion Thread, an open space for the the Stumptown Footy community to come talk about the Timbers, Thorns, or anything else going on around MLS & the NWSL.
Need something to talk about? Well the Timbers collapsed late at home (again), and the Thorns bounced back with a 4-0 victory (again!). There’s also USMNT U-20 World Cup going on, and the USWNT suffered a blow when it was revealed that rising star Catarina Macario will miss out on the World Cup this summer.
Feel free to drop a thought or link and have at it in the comments!
I've heard people are wondering if I still exist, and I do! I've had trouble getting into the routine of checking substack, and after the Thorns had a couple questionable games I wasn't feeling much like commenting.
But don't worry, I'm in therapy, and committed to establishing good habits and making better life choices from here on out.
I asked after your whereabouts. Glad to hear you're forming healthy habits and making good choices. Could you do some training for NWSL coaches and executives?
1) In a world ruled by logic and reason? Absolutely! The visible uptick in Chicago’s midfield possession and distribution after the hour should have been hands-down evidence of the loss of control that comes with Sinc’s lack of pace. She’s depth now, and even that sparingly.
2) Given the actual politics and personal relationships involved? I’m not convinced. I think there’s a lot of people who want her playing to stay sharp for the WC, and I’m not sure where Norris fits in with that.
"... playing to stay sharp ..." only works if she's sharp, which she isn't and hasn't been against decent opposition this season. As you say, the question is whether Priestman and Canada and the marketers (who benefit more from big names than from quality of soccer) are ready to recognize that she's more of an asset when she's not on the field.
I've been interested to note a recent shift in the remarks of broadcast announcers and other non-Thorns-centric commentators; there's definitely more criticism of her play in the moment along with the (well-deserved) recognition of the greatness of her career. I don't know if this means anything, but there has been a change - people are acknowledging what we've been talking about for nearly a year now.
We may see against SD on Friday. Moultrie and Dunn have been playing so well it's hard to see benching either one. I hope Norris doesn't go the route of thinking, "We need veteran experience for a big game like this."
We have Dunn and Kling for veteran leadership. Needing to play essentially 1 player down so Sinc can jog around making everyone's job harder would be a major fail and abdication of responsibility on the side of the coach. If we start Sinc, I can't see us winning that game and would feel lucky to leave with a draw.
Yeah, but Norris apparently thought we *did* need it for the 2022 Final. That's actually the root of my worry about his thinking for "big games."
I dunno, maybe the difference between those two games was a matter of tactics, and he'll decide on the same tactics and lineup as won us the semifinal against SD.
Was Norris calling the shots in that game? I thought Wilkinson was still here, but my recollection is notoriously fuzzy for anything 6+ months ago (well, except song lyrics from the 60s-90s).
Tegan McGrady was on the podcast Urban Pitch this week. They have a pretty interesting conversation about trades and the mental difference between offseason vs mid-season trades, and her emotions around her trade to Portland. One interesting tidbit was that Portland and San Diego had an agreement that she could continue speaking with San Diego's team sports psych for the rest of the season.
Still hoping she gets healthy soon and can get some minutes for the Thorns. Also, she's from the Bay area and went to Stanford, which might be important come expansion time.
Does anyone know what her injury is and when it happened? I feel like she’s been injured as long as she’s been a Thorn, which has gotta be getting near a year now?
Lol, she doesn't talk about it really at all in this episode. I don't know specifically either, but she's been listed as having a "thigh" injury. I'm assuming it's been a hamstring issue, as those can be soooo finicky and easily reinjured. It's also an injury where you can't really even run unless your hammy is 100%.
Yeah, she had several games when Kling was out last season when her dad passed away. Kling didn't play for a month or two if I can remember correctly. I have def seen her play Thorns minutes. She's decent depth from what I know/have seen of her and was statistically one of the best crossers in the league when she was with the Spirit. I thought she would've been an upgrade to Pogarch at LB when that trade happened, but yeah, we haven't had a ton of data here. I do think that she would become the LB sub when she's fully healthy...it's why I kinda assume they're trying to force Reyna Reyes more to RB coverage so far (even though I do think she looks way more comfortable at LB.)
The Thorns just scored four goals, none of them by a forward: two defenders (Hubly, Kuikka) and two midfielders (Dunn, Moultrie) took the honors. When was the last time we had that many goalscorers without a forward on the list?
I was thinking about this yesterday and was kinda concerned by it lol. Weaver and Soph have both seemed a bit off the mark in terms of scoring lately. I'm unsure if this will improve for Weaver because our right side in particular has really good connections....Kuikka, Dunn, Hina, and Moultrie (somewhat) have really been working well together on that side. They do need to figure out a way to get Weaver more involved. Soph has been involved a lot, but her touch lately has been a bit rough so she often gets a nice pass from midfield but then turns it over, or tries to let it run by her and never takes possession at all.
I can't complain though....our attack has been lethal and we are scoring by committee, but I'm wondering if things will be brought to earth soon with us playing much better teams in the stretch ahead. I really think this SD game will say a lot about where the team is at...provided they do start with their best XI (which means Moultrie in midfield.)
When we shipped 6 pass Orlando we had Sauerbrunn, Kuikka, Porter, Sugita all score but Smith also scored a brace.
When we slipped 5 past Gotham Weaver and Betfort scored 4th and 5th. Porter, Moultrie and Everett scored 1-3.
We only had some many big 4+ games under the very young Mar Par. In 18 we dumped 4 Utah. Horan, Heath, Lussi, and Crongorcevic. With Lussi and Crongorcevic doesn't count.
2019
Over Orlando
Sinc, Lussi, Purce, Raso all forwards
Over Houston
Raso Sinc Horan Campbell (OG) Nope Raso.
2021
Over Chicago
Davidson (OG), Sinc, Smith Lussi Nope.
2017 over Orlando
Sinc Henry Sonnett and Raso. Nope.
2016 over Spirit
Horan
Kleiner (OG)
Heath
M. Morris (Almost but Kleiner isn't our player.)
2015 over Boston
Taylor
Zerboni
Shim
Long (Almost but Taylor was a forward.)
We have a few other 4+ goal games that sees Sinc dropping 2 or more goals in a game.
Seems like the sale of the club is on indefinite hold. Not even getting the sense that anyone is asking about it anymore. Wonder why? Seems like a pretty important thing to know about...
I wonder if new owners may try to use the WC window to move all of their operations in, get hired up, and get the kinks out before the stars and the season resumes....they could be using the WC return (and thus, more eyeballs) to make some splashy entrance with their big vision for the club. Would seem like a miss to not try to benefit from this huge tournament. They do have to be strategic and have kinda only got one chance to get things right considering the fans they'll need to try and lure back/win over in Portland.
Sure would be nice to hear something, though....maybe folks can start asking Ryan Clarke questions on twitter...
It does seem like a difficult time for the sale, as Chicago and now Seattle are also for sale and two more franchises are entering in a couple of years.
Just being a tenant and having to plunk down for a training facility is probably not as attractive as some other options.
IIRC, KC's training facility -- which, judging from their season-long form, is doing nothing for them -- cost $19M.
So, whatever you wind up buying the Thorns for, plan on plunking down as much or more than KC did for a world-class training facility.
I don't expect to hear *anything* until the new ownership is ready to launch their PR splash. Oh, there will be a "leaked" tidbit or two, but why would you dilute the news value of the sale? Also, there are a million niggling details that have to be settled, about the stadium and disentangling the two teams in addition to all the details involved in any sale, and serious negotiating doesn't happen in public. I'm as anxious as anyone to know what's happening and what's going to happen, but I'm not holding my breath.
Dunno if anyone has listened to the new Soccer Made In Portland episode, but there's some small discussion on the sale of the Thorns at the end. The news? No news. Nothing. Nada.
Ryan says (admittedly without a ton of evidence) that word around the NWSL is that Ol Reign and Chicago sales will happen before the Thorns. But, otherwise there's been nothing. Disappointing, and, frustrating being stuck in limbo. Siiigh
That actually makes sense; OL is already held by the bidder for OLR, and I suspect that the transfer for CRS isn’t complicated by co-ownership/venue lease issues w the Fire.
But like I said; AFAIK we don’t even know who’s actually talking, or, if they are, how often and how seriously. How difficult the remaining issues are and how has everyone been about them.
I’m actually willing to be patient…IF there’s actual work being done.
If not - and especially if it’s because Paulson is the roadblock - I want the league to start slapping people upside the head.
It is kinda expected that Chicago and especially OL Reign would go quickly, I'm just surprised we've heard nothing at all, no "we're working on it!" or anything. The club specifically have not said one word about it since Dec. 1st when it was announced.
John Textor, new owner and asshole at OL is in a time crunch to sell OL women (and OL Reign.) From what we've read about Textor's debts related to his purchase of OL and the potential sanctions the team faces very soon if he doesn't get those payments sorted out, I think they want to get this sale done yesterday if at all possible. I don't believe Textor cares at all about vetting a good owner for the team, I'm sure max $$$ is all he cares about.
Ryan did say that the Melanie Strong female-led group was the last he heard who was leading the way with interest/intent to buy, but still, nothing concrete lately. I'm also willing to be patient, but gawd, give us a crumb that this team still has interest...Not taking advantage of a WC bump would be a big miss, imo, if that same ownership group is the one moving forward. I hope they can work things out before August/September, so a big reset (with hopefully some splashy vision) is visible to more eyeballs. This club's rep has been dragged over the last several years and is really in need of repair.
I’d like to see the sale go thru if for no other reason than to clear a way forward from the sloppy Peregrine mess.
But I’d suggest that the public image of pro soccer in Portland is less dire than those of us deeply immersed in the passionate fanbase might think. Recently I’ve run into more people than I thought I would who know little or nothing about Paulson, Gavin, Riley, or the FO mess. They’re “sports fans” and even “soccer fans” but pay little or no attention to off-field news. Add in the people who are “here for the players/the team” and there’s a pretty decent ticket-buying base out there that continues to follow the club, Paulson’s fuckery notwithstanding. I think he can probably hang on a long time based on that alone.
I did see a note somewhere that the window to sign NTRP's is very soon. Wondering if we'll see a return of Lauren DeBeau (F), one of our draft picks. If so, it would be strange to me that she wouldn't have stayed to practice with the team this whole time. OL Reign have said they'll bring on multiple draft picks of theirs who were unsigned as some of their NTRP's...but they've all been practicing with the team since preseason. Which, seems smart?
We're gonna need several NTRP's/short-term loans imo. We have only 3 midfielders total lol: Coffey, Moultrie, and Porter. That's it! The quality of our F line/depth is also questionable. We'll see what KK can do....
Here's some proper GM work: "Brazilian defender Rafaelle Souza will leave Arsenal this summer after 18 months at the club.
Rafaelle has made 21 #WSL appearances for the club and was a big part in Arsenal’s run to the #UWCL semi-finals this season."
She's rumoured to be linked to Orlando Pride. The GM surely got an assist from queen Marta of the Brazilian contingent here, but, poaching Arsenal's best CB is no light work. She's 31...I'd like a CB signing younger than this, but still, KK? Got any BIG tricks up those red blazer sleeves of yours? Can't we do better than Canadians who are depth players? We really need some better defensive depth, and will very soon also need a long-term CB general to run the line...no easy find.
As FDChief notes, the sale is the big question. Is KK on her way out? Is big spending paused? Will they just kick the Horan can down the road with a loan extension and lose out on big $$$? Can we get ANY info about the damn sale? We're a few days from it being 6 months and we've gotten nothing aside from the initial news of who it could be (also 6 months ago.)
I’m impressed…and dubious whether this organization could replicate that.
1. I’m not sure how deep Paulson’s pockets are. The club was utterly uninvolved (at least in public) in bidding for free agents. Henry was the last successful big non-North American signing I can think of, Andy many of the others were less than stellar (Andressinha, Foord, AMC).
2. It’s also a very parochial outfit. “Small town guys with small time habits”. Gavin was a USL guy, Ned isn’t exactly a widely ranging character. KK is a purely North American product…the organization just seems very limited as much by experience and outlook as by pocketbook.
3. I love living here…but I’m an old white guy. For a young player? Especially a player from a non-European setting? We don’t have the kind of vibrancy and diversity that Miami or LA or NYC has. If I was from Rio or Mexico City or Buenos Aires? I’m not sure how easy a sell Portland would be,
That doesn’t mean the FO shouldn’t be looking to make these sorts of deals. But it does mean they are very much behind the power curve in making them.
I'd also put Ellie Carpenter on the list of big signings from outside North America. IIRC she arrived around the time Henry was leaving. Sure she was young, but she was already on the radar of a lot of people around the world.
I hope KK has it in her to get players like Carpenter. I haven't seen it yet, but I remain hopeful.
With Carpenter (and Raso, too) I wonder who found who. That was the Before Time, when the Australian federation was pushing their players hard to come to play in the NWSL. Did Gavin shake the Aussies out of the eucalyptus tree? Or did their agent show up here looking to see if we had any interest?
I honestly have no idea. But the club and league had several Matildas then…and since the Australian federation shifted their emphasis to UEFA? None.
I mean, at this point, Paulson is likely only "owner", at best....and for how long? Does he have a say in Thorns acquisitions? It was my impression he recused himself from everything Thorns related and that the interim CEO/GM would be making those decisions...and of course, that's independent of the looming sale.
But you're totally right, I'm not sure how large KK's rolodex is. So far, I've been unimpressed. Janine Beckie was "one of the most expensive transfers/signings in the league", and, for what? When she's healthy she's still just substitute quality (but, she's a good sub!) Otherwise, nothing really to speak of, other than a short-term loan for a player we haven't really used and, Michele Vasconcelos. I don't even hold the Nasello controversy against her. This club history and success demands more ambition than that, and I would like to see more.
About our ability to draw....you know, I disagree there. Racing Louisville has 9 int'l players, many of whom are good players. They're retaining promising young talent as well, like DeMelo and Howell. Kansas/Missouri was able to lure a whole slew of quality players, many int'ls. Debinha is living in feckin' Missouri! Hanna Glas is living in Missouri! Orlando....not a great place to live either imo. The beach? An hour away. Shit, Florida isn't a great place to live if you're paying attention...but, they're drawing in Adriana (who has been very good imo) and Rafaelle (arguably the best CB in the WSL last season.) With the right ownership group/FO creating the best environment, whether that be a stadium or new training facilities, any sort of big investments, there's absolutely no excuse for Portland not to be able to draw top players. Our stadium is iconic, the fans are rabid, and the club has been the most successful in the league, by a good margin. Take care of your players, and you can get them here. Coming from someone who is from LA...I'm not sure all players would love to live/practice in a suburb of LA, constantly going to galas and events, and sit in a parking lot of traffic on the 5 or the 405 or the 101 to go literally anywhere. LA is exhausting because you have to put so much effort into going anywhere, even just grocery shopping. Same for NY I'm sure, though I think they all live and practice in New Jersey (who wants to live there?) Some, like Soph and Broon (and really many of our greats), are really low key homebodies when they aren't training or playing. We have great food, and beautiful nature, with a beach and mountains equally close. Our state isn't super oppressive to women, which, is important if you ask me....Being a professional athlete is exhausting, honestly I wouldn't worry about not competing with big cities in that way, at least not in a capped league. It's the LA money put into the org that's hard to compete with in Portland.... And sure, players might love to gloat and say they live in LA for some beach photos to put on their instagram, but the reality of being there after a few years is different. I had to leave in my 20s because I hated it. I'm optimistic with the right ownership and FO to rehab the Thorns image, Portland will be an easy draw (also looking at you City Counsel to help rehab our image...)
Mmmmkay. My only data point is the Trailblazers, who complain how hard it is to get young guys to want to play here because we’re kinda pasty and boring. Never heard any Thorn say anything one way or the other outside the usual coachspeak.
Maybe you don't consider them 'big signings', but Kuikka and Sugita have both been great additions., even if the legwork on those was more Parsons than KK.
A more philosophical roster building question is: do you go for big famous international names (a la Henry or Maroszan) or do you try to get the best players from international teams ranked 11-25. I'd argue the second option has more long-term success in the NWSL. Think Fishlock, Erceg, O'Sullivan, Riley. Even Kuikka and Rocky. You get great quality, they tend to stay longer, they're probably cheaper, and it's not a foregone conclusion that they are gone for every tournament. Some serious scouting of Italy, Denmark, Korea, etc could easily yield us another get like Kuikka.
As for the money, NWSL is still salary-capped and that does include transfer fees (as allocation money). So as long as we're funding the full amount (estimate 2-2.5 mill), we should be competitive on that front. It's the location and perks that might be harder, though ABell spelled out why Portland is attractive pretty well.
Kuikka was here already when Parsons was still coaching, so her acquisition totally pre-dated KK. And interestingly, I've heard a lot behind the scenes from folks very close to Kuikka that she was looking for options overseas last summer during the Olympics because her agent and KK did not get along, because KK "didn't wanna pay her what she's worth" (what that was, I'm not sure.) That's quieted since then, but I know Kuikka had a bad taste in her mouth about it, so I hope she stays longer than this season (I think she only signed for a year- this season.) Hina was also acquired with Parsons and the former GM, so KK didn't really have much to do with it on the scouting/recruiting and acquisition side of it. That she got it over the line? Sure, that's great, but even Parsons has recently talked about how that Hina signing was a long time coming while he was still there. The first "scouted" recruit of hers was Beckie...and I'm not sure if she was even scouted. She wasn't a need at the time, and had said publicly that she wanted to leave City but had no other options overseas....so she thought Portland was a nice choice. To me, it sounds like she wanted to leave, and KK was like "sure you can come here!" more so than being actually scouted.
So, KK's actual full acquisitions haven't been super great imo. But, we had some duds before her also, so I'm trying to be optimistic that she can raise her ambition ceiling a bit.
I do totally agree with you that scouting int'l teams beyond the top 10 is a good plan. Those players will always be here when there's large tournaments....though oftentimes int'l windows still will pull those players for friendlies. KK could really do well with digging into the smaller Caribbean Concacaf teams also. She's from there, and she did a lot of work with Concacaf...I don't know why she wouldn't try for some of those players as well...Melchie Dumornay has been poached already, but there will be more like her.
Hmm... interesting. Was that last summer (2022) or during the Olympics (2021)? 'Cause one of those was Rhian/KK times and the other was Gavin/MarPar? And I've generally thought we overpaid for Beckie. She can be pretty good at times, but it was no secret she wanted to leave ManCity and lack of game time meant there weren't tons of clubs vying for her.
It does seem like some of these international deals take quite a long time to come to fruition, so hopefully there's some things in the works that we just don't see yet.
Sorry, yeah that was last season, definitely when KK was GM (what is time? lol.) I believe it was during the Euros, then? Was that last year? It was a large tournament, and Kuikka was supposed to meet some folks while she was there to simply rate interest. She ended up getting sick just before the first game, missed the plane and training with the team, missed I think the first two games, and so I'm unsure if those talks ever happened...but I know it's because she wasn't feeling valued by KK, who had apparently "laughed" and said "doubt it" when her agent said she could be getting more money for a contract elsewhere...
Yeah, I mean I like Beckie, and I think she was great depth at RW. But Yazmeen Ryan was probably still at league minimum, was younger, and better. She's a great leader and a really nice person, but yeah, "one of the most expensive transfers/signings" for a 3 year contract for a substitute? Just...not smart business. We had to pay Louisville to get her rights, first. Then add in her public remarks about wanting to leave City but having no offers (it wasn't even "few", I remember her comment was "no other offers overseas"), that whole situation felt more like helping a former teammate than actual roster-building.
But yeah, it does seem like int'l signings can take a while....we've had an aging backline, so hopefully KK has been working on some long-term solutions there. This Rafaelle news though...whew, seemed to happen quickly! I read she's supposed to be there by September. I assume they've been trying to procure her since they got that $$$ during the offseason and couldn't get Debinha. Although....do they really need a CB now? I guess it wouldn't hurt to let Madril warm up a bit more with a quality veteran CB...
She would be an asset - hard to see why not - but it seems less and less likely to see her here again. Given the lack of new hills for her to climb here, and the lack of personal ties to the current club? I can’t see any draw beyond the pure contractual.
So perhaps it’s because I’ve been expecting this that I’m not distraught. Disappointed? Sure. But I suspect I’ve been moving on for the past year, and just didn’t know it.
My thought is that I'm not really sad about it. I think I was at first, when we got news of her leaving for quite a long time along with Salem retiring. But, now? Eh.
I hope KK goes for a full transfer now, and gets that $$$ plus a hefty transfer fee. The closer to her contract ending, the less she'll be worth. Also, I don't trust Kang to not put some bullshit when she's settled. Get the full transfer now before the OL Kang operation really starts humming. OL will incur lots of changes over the next year with lots of players leaving and with new ownership....they'll pay big money for the players that will stay RIGHT NOW. You see how easy they can toss away Henry? We have no idea if Horan will still be a starter for them after next season (eyeing the WC and that knee of hers...)
And aside from it being the smartest thing to do from a business standpoint, it's better from a team/roster standpoint. We have so many int'l quality midfielders already playing out of position (or not playing hardly at all- Rocky before her injury.) Sure, we could use another 8? But for one season, then her contract expires? I think she's a free agent after that, and then we get nothing for her. Who do we take off for her to come back? Moultrie? Dunn? Hina? I say, no thanks. The juice ain't worth the squeeze imo. This is a championship winning team without her, and could be a back to back championship winning team if we could get big money for her to spend on players that wanna be here and/or bringing in another top quality defender or two. Really hope KK has the gumption to make the right decision...esp if Linds isn't really wanting to come back. We also have a double expansion draft coming up in the offseason. Let her go...
She is still an asset because of the allocation money we’ll receive. My assumption is the payout will be bigger than the one we got for Carpenter. Maybe we knew when we resigned Rocky?
I was thinking more of an on-field asset. Given the sale (which I'm curious as hell about, too...) the financials of the club are currently more opaque than ever. If Paulson is close to selling it makes no sense for him to splash out cash on players. But if he's not...then what does he do with this haul? Bank it? Shop free agents? I guess I'm kind of at a standstill here.
Did some digging since the full NWSL competition manual (such as it is) is available online. All transfer fees either into or out of the league are paid with allocation money, which can basically only be used for salary-related expenses (player contracts, agent fees, performance bonuses). So there is zero benefit to Paulson no matter what since he can't access that cash, and I can't imagine that another 100k or so in allocation money changes the team valuation for the sale. He's supposed to be separated from the running of the club, so a big contract using that money would probably only need approvals from KK, Heather Davis, and legal/finance.
Interesting aside, a team can retain a players rights by giving the entire fee to the league, which would be very dumb in the case of Horan since she's free agent eligible once her contract is up.
I've been thinking of what players the Timbers would be core players in the coming years. At this time I've narrowed it down to Moreno, Ayala, Mosquera, Evander, Paredes, Bravo and McGraw. I also have Williamson and Ikoba on the list, but both have flags on their names (Williamson due to injury and Ikoba as a purely developmental player). There are a bunch that I'm fine with holding on to, but those 7/9 players are the core going forward for me. I think the three defenders are a group that can grow into a top-5 group in MLS, Paredes and Ayala would solidify the mid-field with a lot of growth potential, and Moreno and Evander have the potentail to grow into MVP level players (Mosquera as well). I left off Diego Chara because of his age, but would be fine having him as the elder statesman of the mid-field. I like Ikoba as a developmental striker and hope he can grow into the role. Williamson is the controversial choice, but I think if he is healthy he is a really good attacking mid-fielder and mixing him with Paredes and Ayala adds a nice dimesion to the team.
I don't think Williamson is a controversial choice at all, I'd definitely put him on the list of core player to build around. He's a really good player who adds a lot to the team. That core is a great core to build around, for sure - and for the most part they're young, so hopefully they will get built around and the Timbers will evolve.
"I left off Diego Chara because of his age, but would be fine having him as the elder statesman of the mid-field"
This is the hottest of takes, but I do kind of hope that this is Diego's last year as a starter. I know he's said he wants to play until he's 40, but I hope that the Timbers realize that building a team around a 39 year old CM is probably not the most sustainable strategy in the world.
Diego Chara is my favorite MLS Timber, and he deserves a statue, a stand named after him, and a renaming of 18th or 19th Ave in his name, and probably a parade when he hangs 'em up. But, his time as the linchpin of the team should slowly start being drawn to a close at this point, and the Timbers should build around that core in a way that respects that core and doesn't try to replicate the legacy of one all-conquering, irreplaceable DM.
I went with young players because they are most likely to be quality players in 3-5 years, while others (such as Zuparic, Asprilla and both Chara brothers) should be aging out in the same timeframe. Coming into the season I thought the three younger MF players had a chance to grow into a nice group, and while the knee injuries slam the brakes on that happening in the next two years, I still think we could have a solid group there. That being said if the team can find a difference-maker in that area I wouldn't be upset if they went that way. I think we are going to see Chara start another year, but beyond that the teams needs to have a plan in place to replace him because if either Ayala or Williamson don't recover well we are going to have depth issues again.
I like Ivacic, but I'm not going to place him in the group of core players. First, while he is good, he isn't great and I could see the Timbers getting a better GK. If we keep him long-term I'm perfectly fine with that, but I wouldn't build the defense around him. Bingham isn't very good, and Sulte needs a lot of coaching.
I do think Ivačič is a great shot-stopper. His reaction saves are quite good and he's also pretty good at coming out and shutting down 1-v-1 shots. I agree that his distribution isn't great for starting attacks, but to me defense accounts for like 95% when rating a goalkeeper. That said, he's not great at claiming crosses, which *IS* an important part of defense.
I don't know a lot about goal keeping, but I like Ivavcic a lot. I was a huge Steve Clark guy, but Ivavcic helps me forget him. Bingham is not at Ivavcic's level, but is a good backup. I'd like him to stick around for a few more years, but who knows. I think the Timbers have been fortunate with some good goal keepers over the years.
Ivacic is a great shot stopper to me, but his distribution is poor and he doesn’t have the range I would prefer in a keeper (or he chooses not to use it?). He seems pretty tentative on crosses and long balls.
Unfortunately I don’t think we can count Mosquera in that group, he’s gonna be sold within the next three transfer windows. My guess is next summer, but I hope we can keep him until the end of next year. If Moreno can take a step forward he won’t be far behind. Ayala is hard to say, it will depend on how good he looks when he comes back and if he’s still not a starter when he gets healthy. Paredes, McGraw, Williamson, and Bravo I think will all be here long term (not sure on Evander but I hope so)
Moreno started pretty slowly last year. I chalked it up to him just being young and even the brief time he wax here in 2021, I think I may have conflated potential with setting the league on fire.
He didn't get a preseason in this year but seems to be getting better. Not super consistent but that's a lot of players his age. If he turns it on in the second half, I could see him getting sold.
As a person, Mabiala is probably a super guy, but as a player, he is old and slow and costs us goals. He's good "in the air" and is a reasonably good passer, but in a fast-paced league you need someone that is mobile.
As others have said, Mabiala is too slow. He is fine for 15-20 minutes, and a spot start here and there, but I don't want to rely on him. Also, as a 30+ year old I don't see him as a core player. He isn't going to get better, simply slower.
Almost time he’s stepped on the field for the past 12 months, he’s been at least partially culpable for a goal the other team scored. Usually more than “partially.” I wish this were hyperbole, but genuinely like 90% of the games he steps on the field for more than the last 15 minutes, he makes some defensive error that leads to a goal. He sometimes has streaks of good games, which he had last year that started in Seattle (the 3-0 game I believe) and went for a month or two, but it ran out after that. He’s a leader in the team but his time is up and we should only be using him on very, very rare occasions
Latter: still can contribute but shouldn't be the focal point
I love Blanco, but he's pretty much toast at this point. 20 min/game is his best use at this point, then he can retire at the end of the year and get all the accolades.
Blanco is going to work some magic this year. Bank on it. The guy is a killer.
Asprilla - not a huge fan, although I acknowledge he is a legend. He will do the crazy but not the conventional. Bring him out when you need him, but don't count on him. Good to have him on the roster and bring off the bench when you need some offense. Mostly not a fan of using him as a regular starter.
I think it was that last cup match against RSL where Asprilla attempted another bicycle kick and damn near accomplished soccer cleat dentistry on a defender - people around me were heckling him from the start of the match.
He missed a platter cross from Loria in that game, too. I was ticked because he came on for Fogaca, who was starting to light it up with my boy Niezgoda, And then Gio, in his infinite wisdom, decides to derail the chemistry between those two, and put in crazy Asprilla. Why? I don't know. It wasn't to keep Fogaca fresh, because he wouldn't use him again for another week and a half. It was simply to get Asprilla some minutes. Well, it cost the Timbers. Another brilliant Gio in-game management demonstration.
It's me! Hi! I'm the problem, it's me!
I've heard people are wondering if I still exist, and I do! I've had trouble getting into the routine of checking substack, and after the Thorns had a couple questionable games I wasn't feeling much like commenting.
But don't worry, I'm in therapy, and committed to establishing good habits and making better life choices from here on out.
I asked after your whereabouts. Glad to hear you're forming healthy habits and making good choices. Could you do some training for NWSL coaches and executives?
The training would be we better get a ton of money from Horan from... I guess the Washington spirit?
Did this excellent Thorns performance and result help solidify for the coaching staff that Sinc shouldn't start anymore? Thoughts...
1) In a world ruled by logic and reason? Absolutely! The visible uptick in Chicago’s midfield possession and distribution after the hour should have been hands-down evidence of the loss of control that comes with Sinc’s lack of pace. She’s depth now, and even that sparingly.
2) Given the actual politics and personal relationships involved? I’m not convinced. I think there’s a lot of people who want her playing to stay sharp for the WC, and I’m not sure where Norris fits in with that.
"... playing to stay sharp ..." only works if she's sharp, which she isn't and hasn't been against decent opposition this season. As you say, the question is whether Priestman and Canada and the marketers (who benefit more from big names than from quality of soccer) are ready to recognize that she's more of an asset when she's not on the field.
I've been interested to note a recent shift in the remarks of broadcast announcers and other non-Thorns-centric commentators; there's definitely more criticism of her play in the moment along with the (well-deserved) recognition of the greatness of her career. I don't know if this means anything, but there has been a change - people are acknowledging what we've been talking about for nearly a year now.
I agree that playing isn’t helping her. But given how much she’s been playing I’m not sure her management can see that…
Fingers and toes crossed
We may see against SD on Friday. Moultrie and Dunn have been playing so well it's hard to see benching either one. I hope Norris doesn't go the route of thinking, "We need veteran experience for a big game like this."
We have Dunn and Kling for veteran leadership. Needing to play essentially 1 player down so Sinc can jog around making everyone's job harder would be a major fail and abdication of responsibility on the side of the coach. If we start Sinc, I can't see us winning that game and would feel lucky to leave with a draw.
Yeah, we didn't need it in the 2022 Semifinal match, and Norrissey was on the sideline for that one.
Yeah, but Norris apparently thought we *did* need it for the 2022 Final. That's actually the root of my worry about his thinking for "big games."
I dunno, maybe the difference between those two games was a matter of tactics, and he'll decide on the same tactics and lineup as won us the semifinal against SD.
Was Norris calling the shots in that game? I thought Wilkinson was still here, but my recollection is notoriously fuzzy for anything 6+ months ago (well, except song lyrics from the 60s-90s).
Tegan McGrady was on the podcast Urban Pitch this week. They have a pretty interesting conversation about trades and the mental difference between offseason vs mid-season trades, and her emotions around her trade to Portland. One interesting tidbit was that Portland and San Diego had an agreement that she could continue speaking with San Diego's team sports psych for the rest of the season.
Still hoping she gets healthy soon and can get some minutes for the Thorns. Also, she's from the Bay area and went to Stanford, which might be important come expansion time.
Does anyone know what her injury is and when it happened? I feel like she’s been injured as long as she’s been a Thorn, which has gotta be getting near a year now?
(Feel free to respond, “listen to the podcast”)
Lol, she doesn't talk about it really at all in this episode. I don't know specifically either, but she's been listed as having a "thigh" injury. I'm assuming it's been a hamstring issue, as those can be soooo finicky and easily reinjured. It's also an injury where you can't really even run unless your hammy is 100%.
Has she ever played regular season minutes as a thorn?
Yeah, she had several games when Kling was out last season when her dad passed away. Kling didn't play for a month or two if I can remember correctly. I have def seen her play Thorns minutes. She's decent depth from what I know/have seen of her and was statistically one of the best crossers in the league when she was with the Spirit. I thought she would've been an upgrade to Pogarch at LB when that trade happened, but yeah, we haven't had a ton of data here. I do think that she would become the LB sub when she's fully healthy...it's why I kinda assume they're trying to force Reyna Reyes more to RB coverage so far (even though I do think she looks way more comfortable at LB.)
I agree. I wonder what you see that they don’t. Or vice versa
The Thorns just scored four goals, none of them by a forward: two defenders (Hubly, Kuikka) and two midfielders (Dunn, Moultrie) took the honors. When was the last time we had that many goalscorers without a forward on the list?
2018, the Year Without A Forward, when three midfielders (Horan, Heath, and Sinc) scored something like 70% of the team goals.
I was thinking about this yesterday and was kinda concerned by it lol. Weaver and Soph have both seemed a bit off the mark in terms of scoring lately. I'm unsure if this will improve for Weaver because our right side in particular has really good connections....Kuikka, Dunn, Hina, and Moultrie (somewhat) have really been working well together on that side. They do need to figure out a way to get Weaver more involved. Soph has been involved a lot, but her touch lately has been a bit rough so she often gets a nice pass from midfield but then turns it over, or tries to let it run by her and never takes possession at all.
I can't complain though....our attack has been lethal and we are scoring by committee, but I'm wondering if things will be brought to earth soon with us playing much better teams in the stretch ahead. I really think this SD game will say a lot about where the team is at...provided they do start with their best XI (which means Moultrie in midfield.)
When we shipped 6 pass Orlando we had Sauerbrunn, Kuikka, Porter, Sugita all score but Smith also scored a brace.
When we slipped 5 past Gotham Weaver and Betfort scored 4th and 5th. Porter, Moultrie and Everett scored 1-3.
We only had some many big 4+ games under the very young Mar Par. In 18 we dumped 4 Utah. Horan, Heath, Lussi, and Crongorcevic. With Lussi and Crongorcevic doesn't count.
2019
Over Orlando
Sinc, Lussi, Purce, Raso all forwards
Over Houston
Raso Sinc Horan Campbell (OG) Nope Raso.
2021
Over Chicago
Davidson (OG), Sinc, Smith Lussi Nope.
2017 over Orlando
Sinc Henry Sonnett and Raso. Nope.
2016 over Spirit
Horan
Kleiner (OG)
Heath
M. Morris (Almost but Kleiner isn't our player.)
2015 over Boston
Taylor
Zerboni
Shim
Long (Almost but Taylor was a forward.)
We have a few other 4+ goal games that sees Sinc dropping 2 or more goals in a game.
Seems like the sale of the club is on indefinite hold. Not even getting the sense that anyone is asking about it anymore. Wonder why? Seems like a pretty important thing to know about...
I wonder if new owners may try to use the WC window to move all of their operations in, get hired up, and get the kinks out before the stars and the season resumes....they could be using the WC return (and thus, more eyeballs) to make some splashy entrance with their big vision for the club. Would seem like a miss to not try to benefit from this huge tournament. They do have to be strategic and have kinda only got one chance to get things right considering the fans they'll need to try and lure back/win over in Portland.
Sure would be nice to hear something, though....maybe folks can start asking Ryan Clarke questions on twitter...
I'd love to think something like this is in the works! I hope it is.
It does seem like a difficult time for the sale, as Chicago and now Seattle are also for sale and two more franchises are entering in a couple of years.
Just being a tenant and having to plunk down for a training facility is probably not as attractive as some other options.
IIRC, KC's training facility -- which, judging from their season-long form, is doing nothing for them -- cost $19M.
So, whatever you wind up buying the Thorns for, plan on plunking down as much or more than KC did for a world-class training facility.
I don't expect to hear *anything* until the new ownership is ready to launch their PR splash. Oh, there will be a "leaked" tidbit or two, but why would you dilute the news value of the sale? Also, there are a million niggling details that have to be settled, about the stadium and disentangling the two teams in addition to all the details involved in any sale, and serious negotiating doesn't happen in public. I'm as anxious as anyone to know what's happening and what's going to happen, but I'm not holding my breath.
A simple “we’re in negotiations now” would be enough. I don’t even think we can say we know that at this point.
True.
Dunno if anyone has listened to the new Soccer Made In Portland episode, but there's some small discussion on the sale of the Thorns at the end. The news? No news. Nothing. Nada.
https://www.oregonlive.com/podcasts/2023/05/soccer-made-in-portland-podcast-when-the-critics-get-too-critical.html
Ryan says (admittedly without a ton of evidence) that word around the NWSL is that Ol Reign and Chicago sales will happen before the Thorns. But, otherwise there's been nothing. Disappointing, and, frustrating being stuck in limbo. Siiigh
That actually makes sense; OL is already held by the bidder for OLR, and I suspect that the transfer for CRS isn’t complicated by co-ownership/venue lease issues w the Fire.
But like I said; AFAIK we don’t even know who’s actually talking, or, if they are, how often and how seriously. How difficult the remaining issues are and how has everyone been about them.
I’m actually willing to be patient…IF there’s actual work being done.
If not - and especially if it’s because Paulson is the roadblock - I want the league to start slapping people upside the head.
It is kinda expected that Chicago and especially OL Reign would go quickly, I'm just surprised we've heard nothing at all, no "we're working on it!" or anything. The club specifically have not said one word about it since Dec. 1st when it was announced.
John Textor, new owner and asshole at OL is in a time crunch to sell OL women (and OL Reign.) From what we've read about Textor's debts related to his purchase of OL and the potential sanctions the team faces very soon if he doesn't get those payments sorted out, I think they want to get this sale done yesterday if at all possible. I don't believe Textor cares at all about vetting a good owner for the team, I'm sure max $$$ is all he cares about.
Ryan did say that the Melanie Strong female-led group was the last he heard who was leading the way with interest/intent to buy, but still, nothing concrete lately. I'm also willing to be patient, but gawd, give us a crumb that this team still has interest...Not taking advantage of a WC bump would be a big miss, imo, if that same ownership group is the one moving forward. I hope they can work things out before August/September, so a big reset (with hopefully some splashy vision) is visible to more eyeballs. This club's rep has been dragged over the last several years and is really in need of repair.
I’d like to see the sale go thru if for no other reason than to clear a way forward from the sloppy Peregrine mess.
But I’d suggest that the public image of pro soccer in Portland is less dire than those of us deeply immersed in the passionate fanbase might think. Recently I’ve run into more people than I thought I would who know little or nothing about Paulson, Gavin, Riley, or the FO mess. They’re “sports fans” and even “soccer fans” but pay little or no attention to off-field news. Add in the people who are “here for the players/the team” and there’s a pretty decent ticket-buying base out there that continues to follow the club, Paulson’s fuckery notwithstanding. I think he can probably hang on a long time based on that alone.
Any thoughts about the starting 11 for Sunday's match v. KC?
I believe Zuparic is out due to yellow cards, Mora, Williamson and Ayala are injured, and Blanco is in danger of suspension. ( source: https://www.transfermarkt.us/portland-timbers/sperrenundverletzungen/verein/4291 )
last match:
Boli (sub Niezgoda 64")
Asprilla (sub Blanco 79") Evander Moreno (sub Y Chara 64")
Paredes D Chara
Bravo (y) McGraw (y) Zuparic (y) Mosquera
i think you mean Bravo
Zup is definitely out. Another Mabiala game.
Oh and Ivacic of course
I did see a note somewhere that the window to sign NTRP's is very soon. Wondering if we'll see a return of Lauren DeBeau (F), one of our draft picks. If so, it would be strange to me that she wouldn't have stayed to practice with the team this whole time. OL Reign have said they'll bring on multiple draft picks of theirs who were unsigned as some of their NTRP's...but they've all been practicing with the team since preseason. Which, seems smart?
We're gonna need several NTRP's/short-term loans imo. We have only 3 midfielders total lol: Coffey, Moultrie, and Porter. That's it! The quality of our F line/depth is also questionable. We'll see what KK can do....
Here's some proper GM work: "Brazilian defender Rafaelle Souza will leave Arsenal this summer after 18 months at the club.
Rafaelle has made 21 #WSL appearances for the club and was a big part in Arsenal’s run to the #UWCL semi-finals this season."
She's rumoured to be linked to Orlando Pride. The GM surely got an assist from queen Marta of the Brazilian contingent here, but, poaching Arsenal's best CB is no light work. She's 31...I'd like a CB signing younger than this, but still, KK? Got any BIG tricks up those red blazer sleeves of yours? Can't we do better than Canadians who are depth players? We really need some better defensive depth, and will very soon also need a long-term CB general to run the line...no easy find.
As FDChief notes, the sale is the big question. Is KK on her way out? Is big spending paused? Will they just kick the Horan can down the road with a loan extension and lose out on big $$$? Can we get ANY info about the damn sale? We're a few days from it being 6 months and we've gotten nothing aside from the initial news of who it could be (also 6 months ago.)
I’m impressed…and dubious whether this organization could replicate that.
1. I’m not sure how deep Paulson’s pockets are. The club was utterly uninvolved (at least in public) in bidding for free agents. Henry was the last successful big non-North American signing I can think of, Andy many of the others were less than stellar (Andressinha, Foord, AMC).
2. It’s also a very parochial outfit. “Small town guys with small time habits”. Gavin was a USL guy, Ned isn’t exactly a widely ranging character. KK is a purely North American product…the organization just seems very limited as much by experience and outlook as by pocketbook.
3. I love living here…but I’m an old white guy. For a young player? Especially a player from a non-European setting? We don’t have the kind of vibrancy and diversity that Miami or LA or NYC has. If I was from Rio or Mexico City or Buenos Aires? I’m not sure how easy a sell Portland would be,
That doesn’t mean the FO shouldn’t be looking to make these sorts of deals. But it does mean they are very much behind the power curve in making them.
I'd also put Ellie Carpenter on the list of big signings from outside North America. IIRC she arrived around the time Henry was leaving. Sure she was young, but she was already on the radar of a lot of people around the world.
I hope KK has it in her to get players like Carpenter. I haven't seen it yet, but I remain hopeful.
With Carpenter (and Raso, too) I wonder who found who. That was the Before Time, when the Australian federation was pushing their players hard to come to play in the NWSL. Did Gavin shake the Aussies out of the eucalyptus tree? Or did their agent show up here looking to see if we had any interest?
I honestly have no idea. But the club and league had several Matildas then…and since the Australian federation shifted their emphasis to UEFA? None.
I mean, at this point, Paulson is likely only "owner", at best....and for how long? Does he have a say in Thorns acquisitions? It was my impression he recused himself from everything Thorns related and that the interim CEO/GM would be making those decisions...and of course, that's independent of the looming sale.
But you're totally right, I'm not sure how large KK's rolodex is. So far, I've been unimpressed. Janine Beckie was "one of the most expensive transfers/signings in the league", and, for what? When she's healthy she's still just substitute quality (but, she's a good sub!) Otherwise, nothing really to speak of, other than a short-term loan for a player we haven't really used and, Michele Vasconcelos. I don't even hold the Nasello controversy against her. This club history and success demands more ambition than that, and I would like to see more.
About our ability to draw....you know, I disagree there. Racing Louisville has 9 int'l players, many of whom are good players. They're retaining promising young talent as well, like DeMelo and Howell. Kansas/Missouri was able to lure a whole slew of quality players, many int'ls. Debinha is living in feckin' Missouri! Hanna Glas is living in Missouri! Orlando....not a great place to live either imo. The beach? An hour away. Shit, Florida isn't a great place to live if you're paying attention...but, they're drawing in Adriana (who has been very good imo) and Rafaelle (arguably the best CB in the WSL last season.) With the right ownership group/FO creating the best environment, whether that be a stadium or new training facilities, any sort of big investments, there's absolutely no excuse for Portland not to be able to draw top players. Our stadium is iconic, the fans are rabid, and the club has been the most successful in the league, by a good margin. Take care of your players, and you can get them here. Coming from someone who is from LA...I'm not sure all players would love to live/practice in a suburb of LA, constantly going to galas and events, and sit in a parking lot of traffic on the 5 or the 405 or the 101 to go literally anywhere. LA is exhausting because you have to put so much effort into going anywhere, even just grocery shopping. Same for NY I'm sure, though I think they all live and practice in New Jersey (who wants to live there?) Some, like Soph and Broon (and really many of our greats), are really low key homebodies when they aren't training or playing. We have great food, and beautiful nature, with a beach and mountains equally close. Our state isn't super oppressive to women, which, is important if you ask me....Being a professional athlete is exhausting, honestly I wouldn't worry about not competing with big cities in that way, at least not in a capped league. It's the LA money put into the org that's hard to compete with in Portland.... And sure, players might love to gloat and say they live in LA for some beach photos to put on their instagram, but the reality of being there after a few years is different. I had to leave in my 20s because I hated it. I'm optimistic with the right ownership and FO to rehab the Thorns image, Portland will be an easy draw (also looking at you City Counsel to help rehab our image...)
Mmmmkay. My only data point is the Trailblazers, who complain how hard it is to get young guys to want to play here because we’re kinda pasty and boring. Never heard any Thorn say anything one way or the other outside the usual coachspeak.
Maybe you don't consider them 'big signings', but Kuikka and Sugita have both been great additions., even if the legwork on those was more Parsons than KK.
A more philosophical roster building question is: do you go for big famous international names (a la Henry or Maroszan) or do you try to get the best players from international teams ranked 11-25. I'd argue the second option has more long-term success in the NWSL. Think Fishlock, Erceg, O'Sullivan, Riley. Even Kuikka and Rocky. You get great quality, they tend to stay longer, they're probably cheaper, and it's not a foregone conclusion that they are gone for every tournament. Some serious scouting of Italy, Denmark, Korea, etc could easily yield us another get like Kuikka.
As for the money, NWSL is still salary-capped and that does include transfer fees (as allocation money). So as long as we're funding the full amount (estimate 2-2.5 mill), we should be competitive on that front. It's the location and perks that might be harder, though ABell spelled out why Portland is attractive pretty well.
Kuikka was here already when Parsons was still coaching, so her acquisition totally pre-dated KK. And interestingly, I've heard a lot behind the scenes from folks very close to Kuikka that she was looking for options overseas last summer during the Olympics because her agent and KK did not get along, because KK "didn't wanna pay her what she's worth" (what that was, I'm not sure.) That's quieted since then, but I know Kuikka had a bad taste in her mouth about it, so I hope she stays longer than this season (I think she only signed for a year- this season.) Hina was also acquired with Parsons and the former GM, so KK didn't really have much to do with it on the scouting/recruiting and acquisition side of it. That she got it over the line? Sure, that's great, but even Parsons has recently talked about how that Hina signing was a long time coming while he was still there. The first "scouted" recruit of hers was Beckie...and I'm not sure if she was even scouted. She wasn't a need at the time, and had said publicly that she wanted to leave City but had no other options overseas....so she thought Portland was a nice choice. To me, it sounds like she wanted to leave, and KK was like "sure you can come here!" more so than being actually scouted.
So, KK's actual full acquisitions haven't been super great imo. But, we had some duds before her also, so I'm trying to be optimistic that she can raise her ambition ceiling a bit.
I do totally agree with you that scouting int'l teams beyond the top 10 is a good plan. Those players will always be here when there's large tournaments....though oftentimes int'l windows still will pull those players for friendlies. KK could really do well with digging into the smaller Caribbean Concacaf teams also. She's from there, and she did a lot of work with Concacaf...I don't know why she wouldn't try for some of those players as well...Melchie Dumornay has been poached already, but there will be more like her.
Hmm... interesting. Was that last summer (2022) or during the Olympics (2021)? 'Cause one of those was Rhian/KK times and the other was Gavin/MarPar? And I've generally thought we overpaid for Beckie. She can be pretty good at times, but it was no secret she wanted to leave ManCity and lack of game time meant there weren't tons of clubs vying for her.
It does seem like some of these international deals take quite a long time to come to fruition, so hopefully there's some things in the works that we just don't see yet.
Sorry, yeah that was last season, definitely when KK was GM (what is time? lol.) I believe it was during the Euros, then? Was that last year? It was a large tournament, and Kuikka was supposed to meet some folks while she was there to simply rate interest. She ended up getting sick just before the first game, missed the plane and training with the team, missed I think the first two games, and so I'm unsure if those talks ever happened...but I know it's because she wasn't feeling valued by KK, who had apparently "laughed" and said "doubt it" when her agent said she could be getting more money for a contract elsewhere...
Yeah, I mean I like Beckie, and I think she was great depth at RW. But Yazmeen Ryan was probably still at league minimum, was younger, and better. She's a great leader and a really nice person, but yeah, "one of the most expensive transfers/signings" for a 3 year contract for a substitute? Just...not smart business. We had to pay Louisville to get her rights, first. Then add in her public remarks about wanting to leave City but having no offers (it wasn't even "few", I remember her comment was "no other offers overseas"), that whole situation felt more like helping a former teammate than actual roster-building.
But yeah, it does seem like int'l signings can take a while....we've had an aging backline, so hopefully KK has been working on some long-term solutions there. This Rafaelle news though...whew, seemed to happen quickly! I read she's supposed to be there by September. I assume they've been trying to procure her since they got that $$$ during the offseason and couldn't get Debinha. Although....do they really need a CB now? I guess it wouldn't hurt to let Madril warm up a bit more with a quality veteran CB...
I’m with ABell4; both signings were Gavin/Parsons. Good signings! But not the current FO.
So…any thoughts on the (likely) loss of Horan?
She would be an asset - hard to see why not - but it seems less and less likely to see her here again. Given the lack of new hills for her to climb here, and the lack of personal ties to the current club? I can’t see any draw beyond the pure contractual.
So perhaps it’s because I’ve been expecting this that I’m not distraught. Disappointed? Sure. But I suspect I’ve been moving on for the past year, and just didn’t know it.
My thought is that I'm not really sad about it. I think I was at first, when we got news of her leaving for quite a long time along with Salem retiring. But, now? Eh.
I hope KK goes for a full transfer now, and gets that $$$ plus a hefty transfer fee. The closer to her contract ending, the less she'll be worth. Also, I don't trust Kang to not put some bullshit when she's settled. Get the full transfer now before the OL Kang operation really starts humming. OL will incur lots of changes over the next year with lots of players leaving and with new ownership....they'll pay big money for the players that will stay RIGHT NOW. You see how easy they can toss away Henry? We have no idea if Horan will still be a starter for them after next season (eyeing the WC and that knee of hers...)
And aside from it being the smartest thing to do from a business standpoint, it's better from a team/roster standpoint. We have so many int'l quality midfielders already playing out of position (or not playing hardly at all- Rocky before her injury.) Sure, we could use another 8? But for one season, then her contract expires? I think she's a free agent after that, and then we get nothing for her. Who do we take off for her to come back? Moultrie? Dunn? Hina? I say, no thanks. The juice ain't worth the squeeze imo. This is a championship winning team without her, and could be a back to back championship winning team if we could get big money for her to spend on players that wanna be here and/or bringing in another top quality defender or two. Really hope KK has the gumption to make the right decision...esp if Linds isn't really wanting to come back. We also have a double expansion draft coming up in the offseason. Let her go...
She is still an asset because of the allocation money we’ll receive. My assumption is the payout will be bigger than the one we got for Carpenter. Maybe we knew when we resigned Rocky?
I was thinking more of an on-field asset. Given the sale (which I'm curious as hell about, too...) the financials of the club are currently more opaque than ever. If Paulson is close to selling it makes no sense for him to splash out cash on players. But if he's not...then what does he do with this haul? Bank it? Shop free agents? I guess I'm kind of at a standstill here.
Did some digging since the full NWSL competition manual (such as it is) is available online. All transfer fees either into or out of the league are paid with allocation money, which can basically only be used for salary-related expenses (player contracts, agent fees, performance bonuses). So there is zero benefit to Paulson no matter what since he can't access that cash, and I can't imagine that another 100k or so in allocation money changes the team valuation for the sale. He's supposed to be separated from the running of the club, so a big contract using that money would probably only need approvals from KK, Heather Davis, and legal/finance.
Interesting aside, a team can retain a players rights by giving the entire fee to the league, which would be very dumb in the case of Horan since she's free agent eligible once her contract is up.
I've been thinking of what players the Timbers would be core players in the coming years. At this time I've narrowed it down to Moreno, Ayala, Mosquera, Evander, Paredes, Bravo and McGraw. I also have Williamson and Ikoba on the list, but both have flags on their names (Williamson due to injury and Ikoba as a purely developmental player). There are a bunch that I'm fine with holding on to, but those 7/9 players are the core going forward for me. I think the three defenders are a group that can grow into a top-5 group in MLS, Paredes and Ayala would solidify the mid-field with a lot of growth potential, and Moreno and Evander have the potentail to grow into MVP level players (Mosquera as well). I left off Diego Chara because of his age, but would be fine having him as the elder statesman of the mid-field. I like Ikoba as a developmental striker and hope he can grow into the role. Williamson is the controversial choice, but I think if he is healthy he is a really good attacking mid-fielder and mixing him with Paredes and Ayala adds a nice dimesion to the team.
I don't think Williamson is a controversial choice at all, I'd definitely put him on the list of core player to build around. He's a really good player who adds a lot to the team. That core is a great core to build around, for sure - and for the most part they're young, so hopefully they will get built around and the Timbers will evolve.
"I left off Diego Chara because of his age, but would be fine having him as the elder statesman of the mid-field"
This is the hottest of takes, but I do kind of hope that this is Diego's last year as a starter. I know he's said he wants to play until he's 40, but I hope that the Timbers realize that building a team around a 39 year old CM is probably not the most sustainable strategy in the world.
Diego Chara is my favorite MLS Timber, and he deserves a statue, a stand named after him, and a renaming of 18th or 19th Ave in his name, and probably a parade when he hangs 'em up. But, his time as the linchpin of the team should slowly start being drawn to a close at this point, and the Timbers should build around that core in a way that respects that core and doesn't try to replicate the legacy of one all-conquering, irreplaceable DM.
I went with young players because they are most likely to be quality players in 3-5 years, while others (such as Zuparic, Asprilla and both Chara brothers) should be aging out in the same timeframe. Coming into the season I thought the three younger MF players had a chance to grow into a nice group, and while the knee injuries slam the brakes on that happening in the next two years, I still think we could have a solid group there. That being said if the team can find a difference-maker in that area I wouldn't be upset if they went that way. I think we are going to see Chara start another year, but beyond that the teams needs to have a plan in place to replace him because if either Ayala or Williamson don't recover well we are going to have depth issues again.
Ivavcic?
I like Ivacic, but I'm not going to place him in the group of core players. First, while he is good, he isn't great and I could see the Timbers getting a better GK. If we keep him long-term I'm perfectly fine with that, but I wouldn't build the defense around him. Bingham isn't very good, and Sulte needs a lot of coaching.
I do think Ivačič is a great shot-stopper. His reaction saves are quite good and he's also pretty good at coming out and shutting down 1-v-1 shots. I agree that his distribution isn't great for starting attacks, but to me defense accounts for like 95% when rating a goalkeeper. That said, he's not great at claiming crosses, which *IS* an important part of defense.
Yeah I'm curious to see what more I formed people have to say about GKs
I don't know a lot about goal keeping, but I like Ivavcic a lot. I was a huge Steve Clark guy, but Ivavcic helps me forget him. Bingham is not at Ivavcic's level, but is a good backup. I'd like him to stick around for a few more years, but who knows. I think the Timbers have been fortunate with some good goal keepers over the years.
Ivacic is a great shot stopper to me, but his distribution is poor and he doesn’t have the range I would prefer in a keeper (or he chooses not to use it?). He seems pretty tentative on crosses and long balls.
Unfortunately I don’t think we can count Mosquera in that group, he’s gonna be sold within the next three transfer windows. My guess is next summer, but I hope we can keep him until the end of next year. If Moreno can take a step forward he won’t be far behind. Ayala is hard to say, it will depend on how good he looks when he comes back and if he’s still not a starter when he gets healthy. Paredes, McGraw, Williamson, and Bravo I think will all be here long term (not sure on Evander but I hope so)
Moreno started pretty slowly last year. I chalked it up to him just being young and even the brief time he wax here in 2021, I think I may have conflated potential with setting the league on fire.
He didn't get a preseason in this year but seems to be getting better. Not super consistent but that's a lot of players his age. If he turns it on in the second half, I could see him getting sold.
Why don't people like Mabiala? At least the folks I talk to at games.
As a person, Mabiala is probably a super guy, but as a player, he is old and slow and costs us goals. He's good "in the air" and is a reasonably good passer, but in a fast-paced league you need someone that is mobile.
As others have said, Mabiala is too slow. He is fine for 15-20 minutes, and a spot start here and there, but I don't want to rely on him. Also, as a 30+ year old I don't see him as a core player. He isn't going to get better, simply slower.
Almost time he’s stepped on the field for the past 12 months, he’s been at least partially culpable for a goal the other team scored. Usually more than “partially.” I wish this were hyperbole, but genuinely like 90% of the games he steps on the field for more than the last 15 minutes, he makes some defensive error that leads to a goal. He sometimes has streaks of good games, which he had last year that started in Seattle (the 3-0 game I believe) and went for a month or two, but it ran out after that. He’s a leader in the team but his time is up and we should only be using him on very, very rare occasions
What's the conventional wisdom about Blanco and Asprilla?
Former: Done
Latter: still can contribute but shouldn't be the focal point
I love Blanco, but he's pretty much toast at this point. 20 min/game is his best use at this point, then he can retire at the end of the year and get all the accolades.
Lefthanded "wisdom:"
Blanco is going to work some magic this year. Bank on it. The guy is a killer.
Asprilla - not a huge fan, although I acknowledge he is a legend. He will do the crazy but not the conventional. Bring him out when you need him, but don't count on him. Good to have him on the roster and bring off the bench when you need some offense. Mostly not a fan of using him as a regular starter.
I think it was that last cup match against RSL where Asprilla attempted another bicycle kick and damn near accomplished soccer cleat dentistry on a defender - people around me were heckling him from the start of the match.
He missed a platter cross from Loria in that game, too. I was ticked because he came on for Fogaca, who was starting to light it up with my boy Niezgoda, And then Gio, in his infinite wisdom, decides to derail the chemistry between those two, and put in crazy Asprilla. Why? I don't know. It wasn't to keep Fogaca fresh, because he wouldn't use him again for another week and a half. It was simply to get Asprilla some minutes. Well, it cost the Timbers. Another brilliant Gio in-game management demonstration.