As far as the rest of the teams chasing the playoffs go:
- Dallas is stuck in neutral, one win in five alongside four draws, and has a game in hand
- San Jose is mildly threatening, only two losses in five, but has played the same number of games as the Timbers
- SKC has won three of their last five and is turning their season around, if not quite as dramatically as the Timbers, but again has no games in hand
- MNU is a hot mess with a game in hand, but is winless in five and has lost three in a row.
- Austin has a game in hand, but is eight points back and is winless in seven (four losses, three draws)
- LAG has two games in hand, but is also eight points back and has only one win in five
Dallas' game in hand is tonight against Colorado, at home, and will drop the Timbers to 8th place assuming they win that game. LAFC plays MNU, and if they win that puts some more air between Portland and MNU.
San Jose plays Dallas this weekend in Dallas, and Dallas plays LAG in their last game of the season. I can see a scenario where Portland finish 9th, particularly if they don't get points in Montreal this weekend. I don't - and I can't believe I am writing this - think they will miss the playoffs, but I think 7th is a tad optimistic.
Downer to ponder but realistic possibility. Also, no McGraw or Paredes (ill-timed international duty) against faraway Montreal. And I doubt D. Chara will be back until Houston.
Welp, FCD game was postponed due to weather, and Austin and MNU's results put them both on 38 points and level on matches played with the 43 point Timbers. Every contender for those last playoff spots except Dallas and the Galaxy have played 32 games; if the Timbers win out they would leapfrog Houston at least, and depending on results could finish as high as fourth place.
I haven't done the research into the other teams' matches yet to see how far the Timbers could fall if they get zero or one point the rest of the way, but I don't think they'll fall past 9th? Maybe? I may dig in to that later and see what that looks like.
I assumed Dallas would beat Colorado and pass us. Their last games look winnable and I would not be surprised if they pass us but I think Minnesota and SKC are done. If we can just avoid the play in game we get at least 3 playoff games. I can’t believe I am looking forward to the playoffs when I stopped even looking at the table months ago. Even better- no one in the west look like world beaters right now.
But Dallas needs to beat them to get into the playoffs, so I'm not sure Dallas will be in the mood to allow chaos to foment. I would love it, but I'm not holding my breath.
I kind of think how the Thorns do with the shield will determine whether they win the Championship again or not. If the Thorns win on Saturday and San Diego loses, the Thorns just need a point, given the goal difference. But even if that doesn't happen and San Diego drops points, the Thorns need to show the capability to win two games in a row to win the Championship. It's not happened in the league since June. If San Diego wins out, then fair enough. But I think it's likely they drop points in one of their last two, and the Thorns have to show an edge to take advantage.
Made this comment in the other thread but since we've migrated over here:
On the flip side, nobody except San Diego has really been able to string together much recently. The only teams that have 2+ consecutive wins in the last 5 are San Diego and teams below the red line. Only San Diego has 3 consecutive wins in their last 5.
So in my mind the playoffs are going to be very coin-flippy and we have pretty much the same chance as pretty much anybody else of winning three in a row (or two if we are able to hold on to a first round bye). Odds get way better if Smith can play and she was training today. Even if she's not 100% teams *have* to mark her and that should open up space for others.
"The Timbers have concluded rounds of interviews with a number of candidates. According to sources familiar with the process, Phil Neville, Dome Torrent, Ezra Hendrickson and Robin Fraser are among the interviewees and are also among the list of final candidates, which is believed to be six or seven names long."
They're apparently not talking to Miles until after the season so he can focus on the job at hand.
The article also says that New England is interested in Gio.
That would be intriguing but I'm not sure good? Hard to put my finger on why but something about Heath doesn't sit right with me. He's been reasonably successful at MNU, though, so maybe worth a conversation.
Also in looking up MNU and Heath's tenure there, I discovered that ex-Timber assistant Sean McAuley was Heath's #2 and is their interim coach.
I don't think Heath is a great choice either. But based on who they are interviewing already, and their comparable (or worse) MLS records, I wouldn't be surprised if he's on their list now.
Sean McAuley was a USL Timbers player as well and I had mentioned him as a possible (though unlikely) coaching target.
It's the coming match that makes it so hard to predict.
Typically the Thorns have bounced back after a crap game (and collapsed after a good one!) so it seems like a good time for them to play a blinder and take all three. If they do AFAIK they can't finish below second, regardless of other results.
But. Gotham has had their number, and I see the same problem with the squad they had against SDW; no Smith, so no big likelihood of scoring early and often, and the backline still prone to derping and shipping bad goals.
And if they drop points Saturday I can see them folding in LA, too - and that risks dropping all the way down into the play-in, and I am absolutely certain this team can't win three in a row. So that'd be bad...
My guess? Draws Saturday and LA away, so probably a 4th place finish. I wish I was more optimistic, but I'm kind of stuck there.
Yeah, at this point with the way the boys are playing I'm a little more worried about what the teams who have one or two more games in had leapfrogging the Timbers. I'm glad they are having so much time between games right now. They need to get a healthy Evander back and heel the numerous other injuries that player no doubt have at this point in the season.
A question that I should know the answer to but don't: what's in it for the players to make the playoffs financially?
It's hard to know what's in it for the players individually, because contract details aren't generally public. I'm not sure how accurate these numbers are, but this is what I'm finding for teams making the playoffs in 2022, and I'd bet if these are right they're similar for this year:
First round: $20,000
Conference semis: $47,500
Conference final: $100,000
Runner-up: $150,000
MLS Cup Champion: $300,000
I'm also not sure how that money is divided, and whether it's divided only among the players or among players and staff (baseball, for instance, votes playoff shares to clubhouse attendants and other non-playing staff)
So it's not a ton of money just to squeak in to the playoffs, but winning the whole thing is a nice little bump.
Man that's a pretty sad purse. That's like $10k per player for winning the Cup, assuming nothing goes to the team or staff. Add the coaching staff and trainers and it's like $7k. Add any other reasonable group of people and you're talking peanuts.
I didn't realize that players got bonuses for regular season games - Diego Chara was in line to make an extra $34K this year before his appendix derailed him (page 31).
it's even sadder when you consider that those are pre-tax amounts. MLS is growing quite a bit and it's probably time they grow that playoff purse as well.
Thanks for this info! Not a ton of money, indeed. Even if a team wins the cup, depending on how the dough gets divided, players wouldn't get much each after having to play and win four extra games.
As far as the rest of the teams chasing the playoffs go:
- Dallas is stuck in neutral, one win in five alongside four draws, and has a game in hand
- San Jose is mildly threatening, only two losses in five, but has played the same number of games as the Timbers
- SKC has won three of their last five and is turning their season around, if not quite as dramatically as the Timbers, but again has no games in hand
- MNU is a hot mess with a game in hand, but is winless in five and has lost three in a row.
- Austin has a game in hand, but is eight points back and is winless in seven (four losses, three draws)
- LAG has two games in hand, but is also eight points back and has only one win in five
Dallas' game in hand is tonight against Colorado, at home, and will drop the Timbers to 8th place assuming they win that game. LAFC plays MNU, and if they win that puts some more air between Portland and MNU.
San Jose plays Dallas this weekend in Dallas, and Dallas plays LAG in their last game of the season. I can see a scenario where Portland finish 9th, particularly if they don't get points in Montreal this weekend. I don't - and I can't believe I am writing this - think they will miss the playoffs, but I think 7th is a tad optimistic.
Downer to ponder but realistic possibility. Also, no McGraw or Paredes (ill-timed international duty) against faraway Montreal. And I doubt D. Chara will be back until Houston.
Welp, FCD game was postponed due to weather, and Austin and MNU's results put them both on 38 points and level on matches played with the 43 point Timbers. Every contender for those last playoff spots except Dallas and the Galaxy have played 32 games; if the Timbers win out they would leapfrog Houston at least, and depending on results could finish as high as fourth place.
I haven't done the research into the other teams' matches yet to see how far the Timbers could fall if they get zero or one point the rest of the way, but I don't think they'll fall past 9th? Maybe? I may dig in to that later and see what that looks like.
Key question: How badly hurt is Parades? He ended up not ready for national team duty Will he be available for Houston? He’s critical for that match.
I assumed Dallas would beat Colorado and pass us. Their last games look winnable and I would not be surprised if they pass us but I think Minnesota and SKC are done. If we can just avoid the play in game we get at least 3 playoff games. I can’t believe I am looking forward to the playoffs when I stopped even looking at the table months ago. Even better- no one in the west look like world beaters right now.
I still assume that, even though I don't know when the rescheduled game is. Colorado is extremely bad and officially out of the playoff picture.
"no one in the west look like world beaters right now."
Remember when we all used to say that about the east? Amazing how quickly that has turned around.
Oregonian did the work:
https://www.oregonlive.com/timbers/2023/10/can-the-portland-timbers-clinch-a-playoff-spot-this-weekend.html
TL;DR:
Winning at Montreal guarantees playoffs, 9th at worst depending on other results
Win at MTL and beat HOU and finish 7th at worst
0 or 1 points from the last 2 games runs the risk of missing the playoffs
There's a lot of other permutations in the article, but at least as of today Portland controls its own playoff destiny.
Colorado is bad, but they've
* Beat the Revs,
* Lost to Seattle by 1,
* Come back from 2 down against Portland and forced us to score late,
* Forced Vancouver to score late to tie, and
* Beat Austin
They might have so chaos energy left in them and could definitely do us some favors. LA Galaxy is kinda in that same boat.
But Dallas needs to beat them to get into the playoffs, so I'm not sure Dallas will be in the mood to allow chaos to foment. I would love it, but I'm not holding my breath.
I kind of think how the Thorns do with the shield will determine whether they win the Championship again or not. If the Thorns win on Saturday and San Diego loses, the Thorns just need a point, given the goal difference. But even if that doesn't happen and San Diego drops points, the Thorns need to show the capability to win two games in a row to win the Championship. It's not happened in the league since June. If San Diego wins out, then fair enough. But I think it's likely they drop points in one of their last two, and the Thorns have to show an edge to take advantage.
Made this comment in the other thread but since we've migrated over here:
On the flip side, nobody except San Diego has really been able to string together much recently. The only teams that have 2+ consecutive wins in the last 5 are San Diego and teams below the red line. Only San Diego has 3 consecutive wins in their last 5.
So in my mind the playoffs are going to be very coin-flippy and we have pretty much the same chance as pretty much anybody else of winning three in a row (or two if we are able to hold on to a first round bye). Odds get way better if Smith can play and she was training today. Even if she's not 100% teams *have* to mark her and that should open up space for others.
Looks like there is a process, and it's...processing:
https://theathletic.com/4936533/2023/10/06/mls-timbers-revolution-fire-red-bulls-coach/ ($)
"The Timbers have concluded rounds of interviews with a number of candidates. According to sources familiar with the process, Phil Neville, Dome Torrent, Ezra Hendrickson and Robin Fraser are among the interviewees and are also among the list of final candidates, which is believed to be six or seven names long."
They're apparently not talking to Miles until after the season so he can focus on the job at hand.
The article also says that New England is interested in Gio.
Rifer had a good point; three of those four led their clubs down the table and the fourth didn’t last a full season in his last two jobs.
That list seems supremely unambitious
I wonder if Adrian Heath is going to be on their interview list now too.
That would be intriguing but I'm not sure good? Hard to put my finger on why but something about Heath doesn't sit right with me. He's been reasonably successful at MNU, though, so maybe worth a conversation.
Also in looking up MNU and Heath's tenure there, I discovered that ex-Timber assistant Sean McAuley was Heath's #2 and is their interim coach.
Lotta Loons fans not thrilled with Heath, I’d stay away from him. When they didn’t have Reynoso they barely functioned
Except, you know, when they beat us without Reynoso and Lod 🫤
I don't think Heath is a great choice either. But based on who they are interviewing already, and their comparable (or worse) MLS records, I wouldn't be surprised if he's on their list now.
Sean McAuley was a USL Timbers player as well and I had mentioned him as a possible (though unlikely) coaching target.
It's the coming match that makes it so hard to predict.
Typically the Thorns have bounced back after a crap game (and collapsed after a good one!) so it seems like a good time for them to play a blinder and take all three. If they do AFAIK they can't finish below second, regardless of other results.
But. Gotham has had their number, and I see the same problem with the squad they had against SDW; no Smith, so no big likelihood of scoring early and often, and the backline still prone to derping and shipping bad goals.
And if they drop points Saturday I can see them folding in LA, too - and that risks dropping all the way down into the play-in, and I am absolutely certain this team can't win three in a row. So that'd be bad...
My guess? Draws Saturday and LA away, so probably a 4th place finish. I wish I was more optimistic, but I'm kind of stuck there.
Yeah, at this point with the way the boys are playing I'm a little more worried about what the teams who have one or two more games in had leapfrogging the Timbers. I'm glad they are having so much time between games right now. They need to get a healthy Evander back and heel the numerous other injuries that player no doubt have at this point in the season.
A question that I should know the answer to but don't: what's in it for the players to make the playoffs financially?
It's hard to know what's in it for the players individually, because contract details aren't generally public. I'm not sure how accurate these numbers are, but this is what I'm finding for teams making the playoffs in 2022, and I'd bet if these are right they're similar for this year:
First round: $20,000
Conference semis: $47,500
Conference final: $100,000
Runner-up: $150,000
MLS Cup Champion: $300,000
I'm also not sure how that money is divided, and whether it's divided only among the players or among players and staff (baseball, for instance, votes playoff shares to clubhouse attendants and other non-playing staff)
So it's not a ton of money just to squeak in to the playoffs, but winning the whole thing is a nice little bump.
Man that's a pretty sad purse. That's like $10k per player for winning the Cup, assuming nothing goes to the team or staff. Add the coaching staff and trainers and it's like $7k. Add any other reasonable group of people and you're talking peanuts.
Is that 300k per player maybe? NWSL pays 13k and 15k per player for Shield and Spatula respectively. Surely MLS is an order of magnitude above that?
Nope, that's per team - see page 32 of the CBA:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/mlspa/2020-2028-CBA-Long-Form_FINAL.pdf?mtime=20230221184117
I didn't realize that players got bonuses for regular season games - Diego Chara was in line to make an extra $34K this year before his appendix derailed him (page 31).
it's even sadder when you consider that those are pre-tax amounts. MLS is growing quite a bit and it's probably time they grow that playoff purse as well.
Thanks for this info! Not a ton of money, indeed. Even if a team wins the cup, depending on how the dough gets divided, players wouldn't get much each after having to play and win four extra games.