If the Timbers make the playoffs, the concept of playoffs needs to be re-thought. There's no reason for a team playing this poorly to be rewarded with a playoff spot.
Well we're currently not in a playoff spot, so if the team continues to play this poorly we won't be rewarded with a playoff spot. The way we make a playoff spot is to play BETTER than we are now. It's still not clear we'd be deserving of a playoff spot, but in any case it sure would be nice to see us play better.
The overarching problem is that the people making the decision about how many teams make the playoffs aren't motivated by what's right or wrong, they're motivated by money. Plain old greed. More playoff teams = more income, so expansion is always a win in their eyes; fairness or good competition has nothing to do with it. You see the same thing in FIFA, where we had a 13-0 result in the last Women's World Cup so what did FIFA do? Decide to shrink the field down from 24 teams because the imbalance is obviously too extreme? No, they expanded the field to 32, so we'll see yet more wildly uneven games.
"the people making the decision about how many teams make the playoffs aren't motivated by what's right or wrong, they're motivated by money. "
I mean, you're right, but that's not even remotely unique to MLS, it's universal in sports (and it's literally why the Premier League was created in 1992), so it shouldn't be a surprise. And those people don't see it as a "problem", but as a feature. They're not as interested in competitiveness as TV revenue, and more games = more revenue, regardless of competitiveness.
"No, they expanded the field to 32, so we'll see yet more wildly uneven games."
They're doing the same thing on the men's side - WC26 will be 48 teams. 48! there's gonna be so many trash games in that tournament.
The average points earned by the team in the final playoff spot in the west since 2011 is 48. If we adjust that down to account for the higher percentage of teams in the playoffs this year compared to previous years, it would seem that 44-45 points would probably be the playoff floor this season.
The Timbers currently have 26 points from their 23 games, which as you say is a 1.13 PPG rate. If they finish the season at that rate, they'll be at 38 points. Or, put another way, to get to 44 points, they'll need 18 points from their remaining 11 games. That's a 1.6 PPG rate from now to the end of the season, almost a half point better per game than they've done all season.
Is that possible? Mathematically, of course it is. Is it likely? I don't believe it is. The one very small ray of light is that the Timbers have two games in hand on SKC, who are directly above them in the table, but those chips mean nothing if they're not cashed in.
But the bigger issue is: how many more seasons do we have to endure this brand of absolutely craptastical Timbers play until their annual August "rennaisance", just enough so they can barely sneak into the playoffs and hope things break as well as they did in 2021? I would argue that that's not a strategy that's turning a lot of casual fans into season ticket holders or MLS Pass subscribers. And it's also alienating a lot of us who are already both.
Nope, that about sums it up I think. Now let's look at those 11 games:
Houston away (Sun)
VAN home (Sat)
RSL home (Weds)
SEA away (Sat)
LAFC home (Sat)
Rough stretch, but at least three of the four games are at home, and there's a week between Seattle and LAFC. I think there's maybe four points to be had there, seven if they can sneak a result against either Vancouver or Houston.
Austin away (Sun)
SJE home (Wed)
COL home (Sat)
Honestly, how they do in these three games will probably dictate their postseason fate. On paper COL is about the only one of these three games that I'm not really nervous about, and San Jose's been dire on the road this year (only won once) so there's a ray of light there as well. if Portland get four points from these three games I'll be happy, and seven would be amazing.
LAG away (Sat)
MTL away (Sat)
HOU home Sat)
Montreal and Houston are both currently fighting for playoff spots, and will not be easy games. the Galaxy are definitely beatable, even in LA. I really kinda only see five, maybe six points coming from these games. The Timbers have only one road win all season, and I'm skeptical that form will dramatically improve.
So that's (does math, puts out fire in math-averse brain that badly overheated) probably about 17 points, give or take, which only gets the Timbers to 43 points. I'm being pessimistic with those calcs; if they win a couple games that I'm not thinking they will, they may just slouch into the playoffs. If they can do better in the next five league games than I think they can, that opens the window a bit more, but there is very little margin for error.
For the past two years, the FO has been focused inwardly. Working on processes and trying to rebuild their management team. Propping up morale. Putting the organization on a more professional footing. All of this may have led to taking their collective eye off the ball re: roster-building and managing to expectations. Some dead wood has accumulated, and management may have run out of ideas about where to look for better. When you're offering a multi-year contract for a player of Janine Beckie's quality, when you're starting Marvin Loria every week - it seems like standards have slipped. Not a knock on those players, and several others - good for them to take what is given - but a concern for the future.
Hi, just a request for STF folks, can you start an open thread for the World Cup? The last Thorns post was a while ago and I’d love a place where we can discuss the WC for the next month! Ty in advance!
I'll second that, and add a discussion topic: How much does it suck that Messi's first game in the US overlaps with the USWNT's first WC game?
Taking the positive view, maybe people will finish watching Messi's game and switch over to the WC game. Though I expect the latter game to be dull by then, with the US up 3-0 or more because it's against Vietnam, probably the weakest team we'll face in the tournament.
The Thorns discussion above appears to ignore the NWSL Shield, which I'd really like them to win. It's a better reflection of team quality than winning the playoffs, which has a lot of luck to it, and we've only ever won it twice (2016, 2021). Also last year's final-game loss of it was a heartbreaker. Currently only one point out of first place, the Thorns have a realistic shot at it again this year.
I do wonder how well the World Cup players will play after returning. They'll be exhausted both physically and mentally, and all of a sudden club soccer might not seem as exciting. We've had issues before.
Yeah, the returning players will be in various stages of both morale and fatigue. If any of them are on the winning team, they'll probably be delayed by post-tournament PR stuff (a shitload of it if it's the US). Some, like Costa Rica and even Canada, may return fairly early (and for all that I think Japan is capable of a dark horse victory, they are in a very tough group that includes, well...some stuff I don't think I'd better talk about openly). Their state of mind may be fine...may not be fine.
The players that remained have not exactly covered themselves with glory. Overall, the state of the team might be pretty dismal. I don't think we'll fail to make the playoffs, but we may not be able to hold onto the first round bye. Or we could put it all together and grab the Shield. This league is absurdly unpredictable this season, which I rather like. Fun stuff for my last year in the stands...
I honestly think the Timbers have the players to be at a mid table position. Not top of the table because other teams have raised the bar on quality of players they roster, but not bottom of the table like they are now. But the brass can not figure out how to maximize the talent they do have. Yes, there have been a lot of injuries, but even taking that into account I think they are underperforming quite a bit. Game day rosters and formations have been head scratchers, players seem lost and morale looks way down. I’m sure the players feel they should be performing better but are not being put in a position to succeed. Things are such a mess right now that I don’t think there’s any chance they make the playoffs. It’s going to take some serious changes at the top in the off-season and someone to come in and recognize how to get this team to play at the level I think they can.
I’ve always said that I feel the Timbers have a good roster, and I also don’t think injuries have played as big of a role as some people claim. It’s been a factor but we had a good two month stretch with nearly our first choice starting XI available each game, and we still didn’t perform. Losing to Minnesota (who were without Lod and Reynoso, their two best players) and Chicago at home was terrible.
There are good players but zero cohesion between them, it just feels like Gio is telling to go out and play, not really giving them anything to go off of (that’s certainly not what’s happening, of course he has things he wants the team to do, but it doesn’t look like it, meaning whatever he’s doing isn’t working). I don’t think it’s anything too complicated, his lineups have been mostly good, just the on-field tactics are practically nonexistent
'Good roster' is a tricky concept. On paper the starters are decent players, but there's usually low quality fill-ins for starters' inevitable injury spells.
Also, the players sensing/reacting to what their teammates are likely to do is not a big part of the current mix. Coaching can't completely overcome lack of chemistry with tactics drills. Also, shooting on frame is obviously not what a lot of our players bring to the team.
This is where I stand, as well. I’m continually watching these games and wondering where or what the strategy is. It may show up for a bit in a game, but then fades away with players appearing to not understand where they should be on the field and little coherent organization.
And I’m hard pressed to recall a Timbers team that has been this bad with on-field communication. It feels leaderless and rudderless. It is exemplified in the poor team defense against opposing offensive runs: Timbers players constantly not following their cutting mark (ball watching) and exposing their team mates.
I think the Thorns when at full strength are too dangerous to miss the playoffs. But fundamental issues like turnovers, getting torched in transition, technical errors, and lack of depth makes the club vulnerable to having an off playoff day and getting knocked out just as Parsons’ ‘19 and ‘21 squads did. It’s a coaching issue, and so I don’t see that as disappearing.
The Timbers? Gio-ball is so crude it’s hard to tell whether the squad just lacks talent or whether the quality is there and it’s a “lions led by donkeys” problem. The injuries have been so pervasive that it’s hard not to suspect that the trainers are part of the problem, and the lack of performance from the DPs suggests a significant FO/scouting problem.
As Richard points out, a big part of this was the bombs that went off on ‘21.
Many good takes, but I believe it boils down, for both teams, to the depth of the hissy of MP. The door to the vault may well stay closed even after those two or three big Timber contracts come off the books next year. That will be the critical juncture. It will show whether MP is serious about bringing championship level soccer to Portland or whether he will show the ungrateful masses these are his toys and he can do anything he wants with them. Make no mistake, either way the value of both franchises increases. Hold your breath.
"whether MP is serious about bringing championship level soccer to Portland or whether he will show the ungrateful masses these are his toys and he can do anything he wants with them."
Dozens of examples throughout the decades prove that the value of a sports team in the US does not decrease, no matter what. This winter will be the proving ground, for me - with all that money coming off the books, will Ned have free rein to spend it and more in order to make the Timbers what we all want them to be, a consistently strong, top-tier-of-the-league team, or will they continue to be...whatever this shapeless mess they currently are is?
"the depth of the hissy of MP"
I have a feeling we have yet to explore the full depths, and that makes me sad.
The Timbers are another story. We are seeing the culmination of poor contract decisions, untimely injuries, and a lack of leadership. We have talked ad nauseum about Mabiala, Blanco, Niezgoda and Y Chara for two years now, and the fact that players like Nathan, Bonilla, Rasmussen, Ikoba, Caliskan Griffith and Gutierrez have almost as many minutes on the field is damning. The core players are young and talented, but they are as young as they are talented. In the end I just hope that we see improvement going forward, and it would be nice to see an approach to offense to help players maximize their abilities. I don't think there is much the team can do the rest of the year, but next year is going to be critical for the next iteration of the Timbers.
PTFC brought in ONE guy, a world-class provider, to make key passes to... an offensive front line of guys who are injured, old or both... and a bench of guys right behind who have NO ability or experience to take advantage.
Now he's frustrated... Moreno, his #2, tried to bail, apparently on advice of his agent - and the back line's most experienced (and total pro) called out the FO for the squad's obvious talent gap- no, chasm...
The rest of this year is entirely dependent on the health of Boli, Seba's "Old-school guys", and if Gio can/will pull everybody back together to make one more run for "good 'ol Dodger Blue/Timbers Green".
Yep, Ned has his work cut out for him the next 12 months. We are going to need 2 impact players, possibly replace a third if the team can't get Moreno back on track, and probably 3-4 solid depth players over that time. Its close to a rebuild, but with good pieces in place.
Ned's work is even trickier due to the injury/rehab factor for key contributors - Eryk, Mora, Ayala - even Seba. All are in 'wait and see' mode... and so are the $$ tied up in their contracts.
It'll be after the Transfer window's closed before Ned's able to accurately discern what level of contribution any of these guys can make in 2024.
If Ned is waiting to see how rehab is going before making moves than he has already lost the offseason. Blanco should be gone after this season, even if he can make a comeback the Timbers shouldn't be interested in a 34yo player who isn't able to contribute this year. Mora is a nice story, but he should only stay if he is willing to play for a small contract. Williamson and Ayala are coming off major surgery, to count on them to contribute in a meaningful way next year isn't reasonable. Plus, Diego isn't young and Paredes hasn't shown he play a full season. There isn't a need to wait, plans should be in the works because not everything will come through.
Mora took well over a 50% pay cut this season (from $985K guaranteed comp in 2022 to $383K this season), so if he stays, even on that money, I'm fine with the gamble.
Blanco's contract is up at the end of the season. There should not be serious consideration about renewing it. His contribution in 2024 should be as an assistant coach if he wants to stick around; otherwise he should ride off into the sunset on a sea of good memories and goodwill.
I also want to say there is a lack of leadership on the team. When things go wrong we don't appear to have a player to get people in line. I think it is time for McGraw to step up and take ownership of the back line, he is really developing into a solid player back there. But who else? I just don't know who else is going to be that leader.
McGraw doesn't look like he has the personality for that. His play has improved mightily, but I just don't see him as a backline general directing the troops. For one thing, he's inexperienced relative to most of the players around him, and also he seems pretty introverted. I hope I'm wrong, because I'd love to see him step up in the leadership department.
McGraw doesn’t look like he’d have the personality for that from an outside perspective, but the hope is that a future member of the US military and a West Point grad would have the necessary leadership skills to command a backline
Yes! I mean, from a player perspective, there are steps to becoming a leader. Before you lead, you actually have to prove you can play. He's in that phase and is making good progress. Also, he has other players he can learn from with more experience, and then once he has surpassed the teachers, he can be the leader. It doesn't mean he can't communicate on the field now, which I am sure he is doing. He's got a coach who can teach him all that (Ridgy) too.
I hope you are wrong about McGraw. He has the background to take charge, and the experience he is gaining this year is invaluable. He has been a solid CB and received an invitation to a senior National Team. He doesn't have to be the 1940's drill sergeant, but getting everyone on the same page is going to be critical going forward (even into future years).
I'm not too worried about the Thorns. We are seeing a lack of depth due to expansion, probably poor scouting and coaching that isn't up to this level of soccer. But we are missing 5 starters and 2 players who should be contributors off the bench (Sinclair and Rodriguez). That is significant. The real concern is that the coaching is going to cost us games when the international players are back from the World Cup. That could very well lose us the Shield, and then the playoffs can be a crapshoot. But the Thorns are going to be top 2 or 3 and likely #1 by the end of the year.
Seeing Messi join Inter, along with Alba and, it is rumored, Luis Suarez, I wonder if MLS will enter a sort of an arms race for more high profile athletes this winter.
Could this elevate the League and pressure MP and the FO to up their game a bit?
Or is this just another periodic celebrity signing which won't change how other teams are managed?
I am always skeptical when people say that MLS is going to blow up when a famous ageing soccer player joins up for a bit before being put to pasture...
"Or is this just another periodic celebrity signing which won't change how other teams are managed?"
ding ding ding
Messi is good for marketing. Messi is undoubtedly a good player. But the Messi MLS is getting is also 36 years old, and looking to play in a league in which there is less pressure (and I'm fine with that, good for him - he's earned it). MLS is in no way getting prime Messi, and he's not going to show up and magically make Miami not terrible by the end of this season just by taking the pitch.
The idea that he will come here and instantly, or even over a season, revolutionize MLS and raise the level of the league dramatically is, to be generous, laughable.
To be clear: I don't think Messi will be bad in MLS. I think he'll be fine. But the level of unrealistic expectations and hype around his arrival (I'm not saying anyone here is doing that, but that's the narrative so far in general) is pretty ridiculous.
Also: MLS has not had a problem recruiting talented young players from around the world in the last 5-7 years or so. Bringing Messi here doesn't change that. MLS will never have the money to bring in the Jude Bellinghams and Andre Onanas of the world, but many MLS teams do a really good job of bringing in young talent and making them better (Lucas Zelarayan and Hany Muhktar being only two recent examples).
I think that's where MLS should focus, honestly - the Messis of the world are a fun curiosity, but honestly, having Messi come here and specifically say that he wanted a league with less pressure does nothing to finally and forever kill off the "MLS is a retirement league" thing they've done so well in refuting in recent years.
While most of the Messi fans weren't looking, MLS has built itself into a pretty decent league without having to rely on aging superstars. I'd hate to think that Messi coming here re-opens those floodgates, because that would be a big step back for a league that wants to become more prominent.
"But the level of unrealistic expectations and hype around his arrival (I'm not saying anyone here is doing that, but that's the narrative so far in general) is pretty ridiculous."
Not sure what the "unrealistic" expectations are as I am not a Miami fan, but I would expect Messi to do quite well, meaning he's going to score a lot of goals. The guy is Messi and is driven to succeed. Actually, now that I think about it, I think it's ridiculous to not have high expectations. Also, the hype is what it is. I don't go for the made for tv show introduction, but there's no denying the organic hype around that town that the GOAT now plays for their team.
Some of the things I've seen read like a non-zero portion of Miami's fanbase seems to think that Messi will elevate Miami from last place in all of MLS to MLS Cup favorites, just by showing up I guess? And...no. It doesn't work that way.
I'm not in any way saying that Messi will be a failure here; I'm sure he'll score goals, even if not at the clip everyone seems to expect. I'm just saying that people seem to think that Messi will completely revolutionize both Miami and MLS just by his presence, and I just can't get behind that level of hype, because dude is 36 years old and wanted to play in a league where he wasn't in a pressure cooker 24/7.
I'd agree that the odds are long to win the cup; they are in last place in the east. I don't think it's out of the realm, though, for them to get in the playoffs, and once that happens, hmm, Messi and friends vs ?? I'm pulling for them and us of course, and for another final at Providence - lol.
They are last place in all of MLS, not just the east. And it's even more daunting mathematically for them than for the Timbers; Miami is currently on 18 points after 22 games, which means they need 26 points from 12 remaining league games to get to that 44 point probable playoff floor. That's a 2.1 PPG pace from a team that is currently playing at...0.82 PPG.
Again, like the Timbers - is that mathematically possible? Yes it is. Is it realistic? I'm very skeptical. Messi was once the kind of all conquering player that might have been able to singlehandedly effect that level of turnaround, but a) he's 36 and b) MLS isn't anywhere near as bad a league as it was when Messi was in his prime.
Teams aren't going to roll over and just hand Miami three points because Messi shows up wearing a Miami shirt; among the "lesser" teams they have left to play, they also still have Cincinnati, LAFC, Nashville, and Atlanta on their schedule, only one of which is at home. There's not a lot of room for mistakes anywhere if they want a playoff spot this year.
If Messi brings more eyeballs to MLS it is a good thing. More exposure means more money, and more money means teams have the ability to bring in better players. But I agree in general that having MLS be a retirement league isn't what we want.
One good thing that may come of it is that MLS will have to re-evaluate their "every game starts at 7.30" BS. South America is either in the same time zone or one hour ahead of Miami, but if they want Europeans to watch Messi, that means at the very least, Miami's games won't be starting at 7.30 Miami time (which is 12.30AM GMT and 1.30 CET).
Hopefully this will lead them to be more flexible in scheduling all games as well - the other way to increase eyeballs beyond having a Messi around is to not lock people in to watching one game because all games are on at the same time.
yeah, it'll be interesting to see what they do. They'll obviously want to maximize worldwide viewership of Inter Messi FC games, but to do that, and still avoid the Miami-est of the weather, they'd have to play home games at like 10AM, or somewhere around midnight. I don't think the latter is realistic, so I would expect a fair amount of 10-11AM kick off times for Inter home games. Maybe not every game - they will still want some US prime time games as well - but I don't think MLS will be as rigid about starting times as they are being this year.
If I remember right, there were a handful of morning games during the MLS is Back thing, so I think doing that is something they'd consider, as opposed to starting at the now-usual 7.30 and thus excluding all but the most hardcore European Messi fans from watching the games.
“Owner Merritt Paulson has committed to investing in a Thorns training facility and is moving the process forward whether a buyer for the team has been identified yet or not."
Or not? What happened to negotiating with the Strong group? That seemed pretty "identified" back in 2022. Now, maybe not? I'm hopeful that the "identified or not" piece is just boilerplate. But why even say it? Or why not phrase it like "moving the process forward TOGETHER WITH a buyer for the team"?
But beyond that...if a buyer HAS been "identified", shouldn't the training ground be something driven by the new owners, rather than a lame-duck organization? And grass at the Civic...how does that work if there IS a buyer, and they want grass but Peregrine (as it has consistently) isn't willing to spend that money?
I really hope this is just a misstatement, but the whole secrecy and opacity is grinding me down.
It's possible that Paulson won't sell the Thorns, in part because his asking price is too high. Several groups expressed interest, according to reporting early in the year. Perhaps he never intended to sell, and this exercise has been window dressing. No public update for many months now is worrisome. Also, he knows he's owns two valuable teams in a rapidly growing sport that will become even more lucrative.
I don’t know how he thinks he can keep the Thorns when his name is so reviled that he can’t make himself visible at games or Thorns events. It’s not impossible (see: “Ashley/Newcastle/Glazers/ManU”) but it’d be damn difficult over the medium term.
But who knows? He might be planning to move to Klamath Falls and we’d never know.
Agree. But while he may rake in a bunch more money thanks to Apple TV and the Messi deal, I see no evidence that he's going to spend it on staff and better players. Yes, Evander was an exception, but it takes more than a very (maybe overpriced) player to build a sustainable, high-level of success. The Timbers are way behind other teams in a number of areas.
I don't think the statement is all doom and gloom. Lets look at one positive, the organization is moving forward with creating a dedicated training facility for the Thorns. This is critical for the continued development of the franchise, regardless of the timing of the sale. The statement does tell us the sale is not finalized, which is more bothersome than concerning. This is pure speculation, but I wonder if the sale wasn't going to happen until after the World Cup, when excitement for Women's Soccer would be at its highest, to drive up the sale price as much as possible to capitalize on the expected interest generated by the publicity. I believe this sale is still going to happen, but the timing remains uncertain.
It’s not so much that it’s “gloom” as a weird way to put it, making it sound like a step back from last fall when the official line was that the Strong group had put up a legit bid and that Peregrine was negotiating terms.
And, frankly, why would a buyer want to be stuck with some deal that the former owner made on the way out the door? So even the fundamental “good this is happening” take raises more questions than answers.
I want this to be good news…and I also suspect that this is just a typical Peregrine open-mouth-insert-foot thing.
But without any other information the whole nutroll has become like guessing who’s in favor by where they stand on Lenin’s Tomb on May Day, and suspicions about Merritt’s shenanigans seem justified by the priors.
Paulson can barely link a noun and verb together without irritating someone. The guy is a walking embarrassment to his family’s last name and his presence is toxic. I was one of his staunchest supporters until I saw how he handled the investigation. Now, I support PTFC a in the most minimal way possible until he sells.
I’ve already cancelled my Timbers tickets and didn’t buy the MLS package. Haven’t watched one game this year of MLS because of his presence and won’t. I am insignificant, but I held 6 season tickets between the two teams (down to 2)
I still go to the NWSL games to support the players, but I’ve engaged more in other sports.
I'm hoping its just a negotiation ploy. Peregrine wants to make it appear that there are multiple potential buyers so that they can get the highest price possible, hence their refusal to name anyone. You never want to make a deal appear certain until it's signed on the dotted line. That's how I'd read this anyway.
As for Peregrine's continued silence about the sale, I'd put that down to an attitude of "getting the public involved in any way could only screw things up."
The Peregrine default has always been “say nothing”, so I don’t expect them to be different about this. It’s the buyers I’m a bit concerned about. A simple “We’re still negotiating terms” would at least convey a glimmer of hope. The silence suggests that things are still so unsettled that they don’t have enough confidence to even speculate…
Statements from the Peregrine group should be treated for what they are. Not well thought out and just reactionary commentary. Horan ripped them for the field and it was backed by some key veterans. Smith made a cheeky comment about our turf.
They needed to respond and did so in a manner I expect from that group.
PSG said yesterday that they're gonna sell Kylian Mbappe, rather than let him walk for nothing next summer. Maybe Ned was clearing a roster spot for...wait I'm being handed an update about being realistic I'm sorry for the confusion
If the Timbers make the playoffs, the concept of playoffs needs to be re-thought. There's no reason for a team playing this poorly to be rewarded with a playoff spot.
Well we're currently not in a playoff spot, so if the team continues to play this poorly we won't be rewarded with a playoff spot. The way we make a playoff spot is to play BETTER than we are now. It's still not clear we'd be deserving of a playoff spot, but in any case it sure would be nice to see us play better.
The overarching problem is that the people making the decision about how many teams make the playoffs aren't motivated by what's right or wrong, they're motivated by money. Plain old greed. More playoff teams = more income, so expansion is always a win in their eyes; fairness or good competition has nothing to do with it. You see the same thing in FIFA, where we had a 13-0 result in the last Women's World Cup so what did FIFA do? Decide to shrink the field down from 24 teams because the imbalance is obviously too extreme? No, they expanded the field to 32, so we'll see yet more wildly uneven games.
"the people making the decision about how many teams make the playoffs aren't motivated by what's right or wrong, they're motivated by money. "
I mean, you're right, but that's not even remotely unique to MLS, it's universal in sports (and it's literally why the Premier League was created in 1992), so it shouldn't be a surprise. And those people don't see it as a "problem", but as a feature. They're not as interested in competitiveness as TV revenue, and more games = more revenue, regardless of competitiveness.
"No, they expanded the field to 32, so we'll see yet more wildly uneven games."
They're doing the same thing on the men's side - WC26 will be 48 teams. 48! there's gonna be so many trash games in that tournament.
They played very poorly each year, but one, when they reached the finals. Come alive for the tournament. Gio must go
The bar is so low it is embarrassing.
Why not?
"The verdict: The Timbers have time"
The average points earned by the team in the final playoff spot in the west since 2011 is 48. If we adjust that down to account for the higher percentage of teams in the playoffs this year compared to previous years, it would seem that 44-45 points would probably be the playoff floor this season.
The Timbers currently have 26 points from their 23 games, which as you say is a 1.13 PPG rate. If they finish the season at that rate, they'll be at 38 points. Or, put another way, to get to 44 points, they'll need 18 points from their remaining 11 games. That's a 1.6 PPG rate from now to the end of the season, almost a half point better per game than they've done all season.
Is that possible? Mathematically, of course it is. Is it likely? I don't believe it is. The one very small ray of light is that the Timbers have two games in hand on SKC, who are directly above them in the table, but those chips mean nothing if they're not cashed in.
But the bigger issue is: how many more seasons do we have to endure this brand of absolutely craptastical Timbers play until their annual August "rennaisance", just enough so they can barely sneak into the playoffs and hope things break as well as they did in 2021? I would argue that that's not a strategy that's turning a lot of casual fans into season ticket holders or MLS Pass subscribers. And it's also alienating a lot of us who are already both.
So six wins, five wins and three ties, or four wins and six ties. Any other combinations of results?
Nope, that about sums it up I think. Now let's look at those 11 games:
Houston away (Sun)
VAN home (Sat)
RSL home (Weds)
SEA away (Sat)
LAFC home (Sat)
Rough stretch, but at least three of the four games are at home, and there's a week between Seattle and LAFC. I think there's maybe four points to be had there, seven if they can sneak a result against either Vancouver or Houston.
Austin away (Sun)
SJE home (Wed)
COL home (Sat)
Honestly, how they do in these three games will probably dictate their postseason fate. On paper COL is about the only one of these three games that I'm not really nervous about, and San Jose's been dire on the road this year (only won once) so there's a ray of light there as well. if Portland get four points from these three games I'll be happy, and seven would be amazing.
LAG away (Sat)
MTL away (Sat)
HOU home Sat)
Montreal and Houston are both currently fighting for playoff spots, and will not be easy games. the Galaxy are definitely beatable, even in LA. I really kinda only see five, maybe six points coming from these games. The Timbers have only one road win all season, and I'm skeptical that form will dramatically improve.
So that's (does math, puts out fire in math-averse brain that badly overheated) probably about 17 points, give or take, which only gets the Timbers to 43 points. I'm being pessimistic with those calcs; if they win a couple games that I'm not thinking they will, they may just slouch into the playoffs. If they can do better in the next five league games than I think they can, that opens the window a bit more, but there is very little margin for error.
For the past two years, the FO has been focused inwardly. Working on processes and trying to rebuild their management team. Propping up morale. Putting the organization on a more professional footing. All of this may have led to taking their collective eye off the ball re: roster-building and managing to expectations. Some dead wood has accumulated, and management may have run out of ideas about where to look for better. When you're offering a multi-year contract for a player of Janine Beckie's quality, when you're starting Marvin Loria every week - it seems like standards have slipped. Not a knock on those players, and several others - good for them to take what is given - but a concern for the future.
Hi, just a request for STF folks, can you start an open thread for the World Cup? The last Thorns post was a while ago and I’d love a place where we can discuss the WC for the next month! Ty in advance!
How about you Ferns? 1-15-0!
Meanwhile, Norway has to be gutted. That was Epic Crap from a once-formidable power...
Didn't see that one coming! Apparently having Hegerberg, Graham Hansen, et al. isn't enough to overcome home field advantage.
Meanwhile in Oz, former Thorn Steph Catley has scored, and the game-winning goal to boot.
So many ex-Thorns in that match, even Claire Polkinghorne. I counted five. Edit: I overlooked Sinead, so six.
I'll second that, and add a discussion topic: How much does it suck that Messi's first game in the US overlaps with the USWNT's first WC game?
Taking the positive view, maybe people will finish watching Messi's game and switch over to the WC game. Though I expect the latter game to be dull by then, with the US up 3-0 or more because it's against Vietnam, probably the weakest team we'll face in the tournament.
Typical
Soooooo.....the coaching. Both teams. Front offices too.
The Thorns discussion above appears to ignore the NWSL Shield, which I'd really like them to win. It's a better reflection of team quality than winning the playoffs, which has a lot of luck to it, and we've only ever won it twice (2016, 2021). Also last year's final-game loss of it was a heartbreaker. Currently only one point out of first place, the Thorns have a realistic shot at it again this year.
I do wonder how well the World Cup players will play after returning. They'll be exhausted both physically and mentally, and all of a sudden club soccer might not seem as exciting. We've had issues before.
Adding to their hectic schedule are two friendlies against South Africa in Cincinnati and Chicago on Sept. 21 and 24.
Yeah, the returning players will be in various stages of both morale and fatigue. If any of them are on the winning team, they'll probably be delayed by post-tournament PR stuff (a shitload of it if it's the US). Some, like Costa Rica and even Canada, may return fairly early (and for all that I think Japan is capable of a dark horse victory, they are in a very tough group that includes, well...some stuff I don't think I'd better talk about openly). Their state of mind may be fine...may not be fine.
The players that remained have not exactly covered themselves with glory. Overall, the state of the team might be pretty dismal. I don't think we'll fail to make the playoffs, but we may not be able to hold onto the first round bye. Or we could put it all together and grab the Shield. This league is absurdly unpredictable this season, which I rather like. Fun stuff for my last year in the stands...
I honestly think the Timbers have the players to be at a mid table position. Not top of the table because other teams have raised the bar on quality of players they roster, but not bottom of the table like they are now. But the brass can not figure out how to maximize the talent they do have. Yes, there have been a lot of injuries, but even taking that into account I think they are underperforming quite a bit. Game day rosters and formations have been head scratchers, players seem lost and morale looks way down. I’m sure the players feel they should be performing better but are not being put in a position to succeed. Things are such a mess right now that I don’t think there’s any chance they make the playoffs. It’s going to take some serious changes at the top in the off-season and someone to come in and recognize how to get this team to play at the level I think they can.
I’ve always said that I feel the Timbers have a good roster, and I also don’t think injuries have played as big of a role as some people claim. It’s been a factor but we had a good two month stretch with nearly our first choice starting XI available each game, and we still didn’t perform. Losing to Minnesota (who were without Lod and Reynoso, their two best players) and Chicago at home was terrible.
There are good players but zero cohesion between them, it just feels like Gio is telling to go out and play, not really giving them anything to go off of (that’s certainly not what’s happening, of course he has things he wants the team to do, but it doesn’t look like it, meaning whatever he’s doing isn’t working). I don’t think it’s anything too complicated, his lineups have been mostly good, just the on-field tactics are practically nonexistent
'Good roster' is a tricky concept. On paper the starters are decent players, but there's usually low quality fill-ins for starters' inevitable injury spells.
Also, the players sensing/reacting to what their teammates are likely to do is not a big part of the current mix. Coaching can't completely overcome lack of chemistry with tactics drills. Also, shooting on frame is obviously not what a lot of our players bring to the team.
This is where I stand, as well. I’m continually watching these games and wondering where or what the strategy is. It may show up for a bit in a game, but then fades away with players appearing to not understand where they should be on the field and little coherent organization.
And I’m hard pressed to recall a Timbers team that has been this bad with on-field communication. It feels leaderless and rudderless. It is exemplified in the poor team defense against opposing offensive runs: Timbers players constantly not following their cutting mark (ball watching) and exposing their team mates.
I think the Thorns when at full strength are too dangerous to miss the playoffs. But fundamental issues like turnovers, getting torched in transition, technical errors, and lack of depth makes the club vulnerable to having an off playoff day and getting knocked out just as Parsons’ ‘19 and ‘21 squads did. It’s a coaching issue, and so I don’t see that as disappearing.
The Timbers? Gio-ball is so crude it’s hard to tell whether the squad just lacks talent or whether the quality is there and it’s a “lions led by donkeys” problem. The injuries have been so pervasive that it’s hard not to suspect that the trainers are part of the problem, and the lack of performance from the DPs suggests a significant FO/scouting problem.
As Richard points out, a big part of this was the bombs that went off on ‘21.
Many good takes, but I believe it boils down, for both teams, to the depth of the hissy of MP. The door to the vault may well stay closed even after those two or three big Timber contracts come off the books next year. That will be the critical juncture. It will show whether MP is serious about bringing championship level soccer to Portland or whether he will show the ungrateful masses these are his toys and he can do anything he wants with them. Make no mistake, either way the value of both franchises increases. Hold your breath.
"whether MP is serious about bringing championship level soccer to Portland or whether he will show the ungrateful masses these are his toys and he can do anything he wants with them."
Dozens of examples throughout the decades prove that the value of a sports team in the US does not decrease, no matter what. This winter will be the proving ground, for me - with all that money coming off the books, will Ned have free rein to spend it and more in order to make the Timbers what we all want them to be, a consistently strong, top-tier-of-the-league team, or will they continue to be...whatever this shapeless mess they currently are is?
"the depth of the hissy of MP"
I have a feeling we have yet to explore the full depths, and that makes me sad.
The Timbers are another story. We are seeing the culmination of poor contract decisions, untimely injuries, and a lack of leadership. We have talked ad nauseum about Mabiala, Blanco, Niezgoda and Y Chara for two years now, and the fact that players like Nathan, Bonilla, Rasmussen, Ikoba, Caliskan Griffith and Gutierrez have almost as many minutes on the field is damning. The core players are young and talented, but they are as young as they are talented. In the end I just hope that we see improvement going forward, and it would be nice to see an approach to offense to help players maximize their abilities. I don't think there is much the team can do the rest of the year, but next year is going to be critical for the next iteration of the Timbers.
You have it 100% right, Benno.
PTFC brought in ONE guy, a world-class provider, to make key passes to... an offensive front line of guys who are injured, old or both... and a bench of guys right behind who have NO ability or experience to take advantage.
Now he's frustrated... Moreno, his #2, tried to bail, apparently on advice of his agent - and the back line's most experienced (and total pro) called out the FO for the squad's obvious talent gap- no, chasm...
The rest of this year is entirely dependent on the health of Boli, Seba's "Old-school guys", and if Gio can/will pull everybody back together to make one more run for "good 'ol Dodger Blue/Timbers Green".
Beyond that - NED, are you listening???
Yep, Ned has his work cut out for him the next 12 months. We are going to need 2 impact players, possibly replace a third if the team can't get Moreno back on track, and probably 3-4 solid depth players over that time. Its close to a rebuild, but with good pieces in place.
Ned's work is even trickier due to the injury/rehab factor for key contributors - Eryk, Mora, Ayala - even Seba. All are in 'wait and see' mode... and so are the $$ tied up in their contracts.
It'll be after the Transfer window's closed before Ned's able to accurately discern what level of contribution any of these guys can make in 2024.
If Ned is waiting to see how rehab is going before making moves than he has already lost the offseason. Blanco should be gone after this season, even if he can make a comeback the Timbers shouldn't be interested in a 34yo player who isn't able to contribute this year. Mora is a nice story, but he should only stay if he is willing to play for a small contract. Williamson and Ayala are coming off major surgery, to count on them to contribute in a meaningful way next year isn't reasonable. Plus, Diego isn't young and Paredes hasn't shown he play a full season. There isn't a need to wait, plans should be in the works because not everything will come through.
Mora took well over a 50% pay cut this season (from $985K guaranteed comp in 2022 to $383K this season), so if he stays, even on that money, I'm fine with the gamble.
Blanco's contract is up at the end of the season. There should not be serious consideration about renewing it. His contribution in 2024 should be as an assistant coach if he wants to stick around; otherwise he should ride off into the sunset on a sea of good memories and goodwill.
I also want to say there is a lack of leadership on the team. When things go wrong we don't appear to have a player to get people in line. I think it is time for McGraw to step up and take ownership of the back line, he is really developing into a solid player back there. But who else? I just don't know who else is going to be that leader.
McGraw doesn't look like he has the personality for that. His play has improved mightily, but I just don't see him as a backline general directing the troops. For one thing, he's inexperienced relative to most of the players around him, and also he seems pretty introverted. I hope I'm wrong, because I'd love to see him step up in the leadership department.
McGraw doesn’t look like he’d have the personality for that from an outside perspective, but the hope is that a future member of the US military and a West Point grad would have the necessary leadership skills to command a backline
Yes! I mean, from a player perspective, there are steps to becoming a leader. Before you lead, you actually have to prove you can play. He's in that phase and is making good progress. Also, he has other players he can learn from with more experience, and then once he has surpassed the teachers, he can be the leader. It doesn't mean he can't communicate on the field now, which I am sure he is doing. He's got a coach who can teach him all that (Ridgy) too.
I hope you are wrong about McGraw. He has the background to take charge, and the experience he is gaining this year is invaluable. He has been a solid CB and received an invitation to a senior National Team. He doesn't have to be the 1940's drill sergeant, but getting everyone on the same page is going to be critical going forward (even into future years).
I'm not too worried about the Thorns. We are seeing a lack of depth due to expansion, probably poor scouting and coaching that isn't up to this level of soccer. But we are missing 5 starters and 2 players who should be contributors off the bench (Sinclair and Rodriguez). That is significant. The real concern is that the coaching is going to cost us games when the international players are back from the World Cup. That could very well lose us the Shield, and then the playoffs can be a crapshoot. But the Thorns are going to be top 2 or 3 and likely #1 by the end of the year.
Can we get a WWC thread pls?
Seeing Messi join Inter, along with Alba and, it is rumored, Luis Suarez, I wonder if MLS will enter a sort of an arms race for more high profile athletes this winter.
Could this elevate the League and pressure MP and the FO to up their game a bit?
Or is this just another periodic celebrity signing which won't change how other teams are managed?
I am always skeptical when people say that MLS is going to blow up when a famous ageing soccer player joins up for a bit before being put to pasture...
"Or is this just another periodic celebrity signing which won't change how other teams are managed?"
ding ding ding
Messi is good for marketing. Messi is undoubtedly a good player. But the Messi MLS is getting is also 36 years old, and looking to play in a league in which there is less pressure (and I'm fine with that, good for him - he's earned it). MLS is in no way getting prime Messi, and he's not going to show up and magically make Miami not terrible by the end of this season just by taking the pitch.
The idea that he will come here and instantly, or even over a season, revolutionize MLS and raise the level of the league dramatically is, to be generous, laughable.
To be clear: I don't think Messi will be bad in MLS. I think he'll be fine. But the level of unrealistic expectations and hype around his arrival (I'm not saying anyone here is doing that, but that's the narrative so far in general) is pretty ridiculous.
Also: MLS has not had a problem recruiting talented young players from around the world in the last 5-7 years or so. Bringing Messi here doesn't change that. MLS will never have the money to bring in the Jude Bellinghams and Andre Onanas of the world, but many MLS teams do a really good job of bringing in young talent and making them better (Lucas Zelarayan and Hany Muhktar being only two recent examples).
I think that's where MLS should focus, honestly - the Messis of the world are a fun curiosity, but honestly, having Messi come here and specifically say that he wanted a league with less pressure does nothing to finally and forever kill off the "MLS is a retirement league" thing they've done so well in refuting in recent years.
While most of the Messi fans weren't looking, MLS has built itself into a pretty decent league without having to rely on aging superstars. I'd hate to think that Messi coming here re-opens those floodgates, because that would be a big step back for a league that wants to become more prominent.
"But the level of unrealistic expectations and hype around his arrival (I'm not saying anyone here is doing that, but that's the narrative so far in general) is pretty ridiculous."
Not sure what the "unrealistic" expectations are as I am not a Miami fan, but I would expect Messi to do quite well, meaning he's going to score a lot of goals. The guy is Messi and is driven to succeed. Actually, now that I think about it, I think it's ridiculous to not have high expectations. Also, the hype is what it is. I don't go for the made for tv show introduction, but there's no denying the organic hype around that town that the GOAT now plays for their team.
Some of the things I've seen read like a non-zero portion of Miami's fanbase seems to think that Messi will elevate Miami from last place in all of MLS to MLS Cup favorites, just by showing up I guess? And...no. It doesn't work that way.
I'm not in any way saying that Messi will be a failure here; I'm sure he'll score goals, even if not at the clip everyone seems to expect. I'm just saying that people seem to think that Messi will completely revolutionize both Miami and MLS just by his presence, and I just can't get behind that level of hype, because dude is 36 years old and wanted to play in a league where he wasn't in a pressure cooker 24/7.
I'd agree that the odds are long to win the cup; they are in last place in the east. I don't think it's out of the realm, though, for them to get in the playoffs, and once that happens, hmm, Messi and friends vs ?? I'm pulling for them and us of course, and for another final at Providence - lol.
They are last place in all of MLS, not just the east. And it's even more daunting mathematically for them than for the Timbers; Miami is currently on 18 points after 22 games, which means they need 26 points from 12 remaining league games to get to that 44 point probable playoff floor. That's a 2.1 PPG pace from a team that is currently playing at...0.82 PPG.
Again, like the Timbers - is that mathematically possible? Yes it is. Is it realistic? I'm very skeptical. Messi was once the kind of all conquering player that might have been able to singlehandedly effect that level of turnaround, but a) he's 36 and b) MLS isn't anywhere near as bad a league as it was when Messi was in his prime.
Teams aren't going to roll over and just hand Miami three points because Messi shows up wearing a Miami shirt; among the "lesser" teams they have left to play, they also still have Cincinnati, LAFC, Nashville, and Atlanta on their schedule, only one of which is at home. There's not a lot of room for mistakes anywhere if they want a playoff spot this year.
If Messi brings more eyeballs to MLS it is a good thing. More exposure means more money, and more money means teams have the ability to bring in better players. But I agree in general that having MLS be a retirement league isn't what we want.
One good thing that may come of it is that MLS will have to re-evaluate their "every game starts at 7.30" BS. South America is either in the same time zone or one hour ahead of Miami, but if they want Europeans to watch Messi, that means at the very least, Miami's games won't be starting at 7.30 Miami time (which is 12.30AM GMT and 1.30 CET).
Hopefully this will lead them to be more flexible in scheduling all games as well - the other way to increase eyeballs beyond having a Messi around is to not lock people in to watching one game because all games are on at the same time.
I would imagine that weather might be a major factor in match scheduling, especially in Miami?
yeah, it'll be interesting to see what they do. They'll obviously want to maximize worldwide viewership of Inter Messi FC games, but to do that, and still avoid the Miami-est of the weather, they'd have to play home games at like 10AM, or somewhere around midnight. I don't think the latter is realistic, so I would expect a fair amount of 10-11AM kick off times for Inter home games. Maybe not every game - they will still want some US prime time games as well - but I don't think MLS will be as rigid about starting times as they are being this year.
If I remember right, there were a handful of morning games during the MLS is Back thing, so I think doing that is something they'd consider, as opposed to starting at the now-usual 7.30 and thus excluding all but the most hardcore European Messi fans from watching the games.
I would love to host Chewy Luis if only for the epic chants he’d inspire.
“Long pig! The other white meat!”
"Hey Luis Suarez, gnaw means gnaw!"
“He’s such
A nut
He’ll bite you in the butt
Luis Suarez! Luis Suarez!”
Okay, this is not exactly encouraging re: the Thorns sale (https://www.oregonlive.com/portland-thorns/2023/07/portland-thorns-players-urge-club-to-invest-in-grass-field-dedicated-training-facility.html):
“Owner Merritt Paulson has committed to investing in a Thorns training facility and is moving the process forward whether a buyer for the team has been identified yet or not."
Or not? What happened to negotiating with the Strong group? That seemed pretty "identified" back in 2022. Now, maybe not? I'm hopeful that the "identified or not" piece is just boilerplate. But why even say it? Or why not phrase it like "moving the process forward TOGETHER WITH a buyer for the team"?
But beyond that...if a buyer HAS been "identified", shouldn't the training ground be something driven by the new owners, rather than a lame-duck organization? And grass at the Civic...how does that work if there IS a buyer, and they want grass but Peregrine (as it has consistently) isn't willing to spend that money?
I really hope this is just a misstatement, but the whole secrecy and opacity is grinding me down.
It's possible that Paulson won't sell the Thorns, in part because his asking price is too high. Several groups expressed interest, according to reporting early in the year. Perhaps he never intended to sell, and this exercise has been window dressing. No public update for many months now is worrisome. Also, he knows he's owns two valuable teams in a rapidly growing sport that will become even more lucrative.
He won’t sell the Timbers. Period.
I don’t know how he thinks he can keep the Thorns when his name is so reviled that he can’t make himself visible at games or Thorns events. It’s not impossible (see: “Ashley/Newcastle/Glazers/ManU”) but it’d be damn difficult over the medium term.
But who knows? He might be planning to move to Klamath Falls and we’d never know.
Agree. But while he may rake in a bunch more money thanks to Apple TV and the Messi deal, I see no evidence that he's going to spend it on staff and better players. Yes, Evander was an exception, but it takes more than a very (maybe overpriced) player to build a sustainable, high-level of success. The Timbers are way behind other teams in a number of areas.
Agreed
I don't think the statement is all doom and gloom. Lets look at one positive, the organization is moving forward with creating a dedicated training facility for the Thorns. This is critical for the continued development of the franchise, regardless of the timing of the sale. The statement does tell us the sale is not finalized, which is more bothersome than concerning. This is pure speculation, but I wonder if the sale wasn't going to happen until after the World Cup, when excitement for Women's Soccer would be at its highest, to drive up the sale price as much as possible to capitalize on the expected interest generated by the publicity. I believe this sale is still going to happen, but the timing remains uncertain.
It’s not so much that it’s “gloom” as a weird way to put it, making it sound like a step back from last fall when the official line was that the Strong group had put up a legit bid and that Peregrine was negotiating terms.
And, frankly, why would a buyer want to be stuck with some deal that the former owner made on the way out the door? So even the fundamental “good this is happening” take raises more questions than answers.
I want this to be good news…and I also suspect that this is just a typical Peregrine open-mouth-insert-foot thing.
But without any other information the whole nutroll has become like guessing who’s in favor by where they stand on Lenin’s Tomb on May Day, and suspicions about Merritt’s shenanigans seem justified by the priors.
Hope to hell you’re right and I’m wrong.
Paulson can barely link a noun and verb together without irritating someone. The guy is a walking embarrassment to his family’s last name and his presence is toxic. I was one of his staunchest supporters until I saw how he handled the investigation. Now, I support PTFC a in the most minimal way possible until he sells.
I’ve already cancelled my Timbers tickets and didn’t buy the MLS package. Haven’t watched one game this year of MLS because of his presence and won’t. I am insignificant, but I held 6 season tickets between the two teams (down to 2)
I still go to the NWSL games to support the players, but I’ve engaged more in other sports.
I'm hoping its just a negotiation ploy. Peregrine wants to make it appear that there are multiple potential buyers so that they can get the highest price possible, hence their refusal to name anyone. You never want to make a deal appear certain until it's signed on the dotted line. That's how I'd read this anyway.
As for Peregrine's continued silence about the sale, I'd put that down to an attitude of "getting the public involved in any way could only screw things up."
The Peregrine default has always been “say nothing”, so I don’t expect them to be different about this. It’s the buyers I’m a bit concerned about. A simple “We’re still negotiating terms” would at least convey a glimmer of hope. The silence suggests that things are still so unsettled that they don’t have enough confidence to even speculate…
Statements from the Peregrine group should be treated for what they are. Not well thought out and just reactionary commentary. Horan ripped them for the field and it was backed by some key veterans. Smith made a cheeky comment about our turf.
They needed to respond and did so in a manner I expect from that group.
"...the reality is that with the Timbers’ level of talent they should have made the playoffs last year and should be making it this year."
Gio's got to go...
Not sure anybody else saw this, but the Timbers waived defender Pablo Bonilla today.
Looks like he was occupying a senior roster spot. Might mean we're signing someone.
PSG said yesterday that they're gonna sell Kylian Mbappe, rather than let him walk for nothing next summer. Maybe Ned was clearing a roster spot for...wait I'm being handed an update about being realistic I'm sorry for the confusion