Hours after the Portland Timbers finished their final home regular season game in the 2024 MLS season, Sam, Alex, and Jeremy hopped on the microphones to analyze/commiserate/yearn.
I get the feeling that this team is all emotional. They get up for big games, and simply weren't motivated to play the Texas teams, even though so much was riding on it. They played fairly well, but just didn't have the edge that they need to break through. Not all the players, mind you. Some are working hard above and beyond. But there is a drag on the team somewhere.
They may put up a fight if they make ninth, but I just don't have faith they will win it. It's eighth or bust, and that seems like a real long shot. For some sort of consolation this season, they absolutely have to beat Seattle and win the cup.
Phil is absolutely a vibes coach. When that works, it works well - we've seen it. I just don't think it's sustainable over every game of an entire season. At some point actual tactics, an actual game plan, has to be layered in there. And that's where Phil has always, both at Miami and here, fallen a bit short; he just wants that spirit, that fight, that energy, to carry the day. And it won't, not always.
These are adults. They're professionals. This is disrespectful to them. As near as I can recall, most of the evidence for the "mentality" argument is what Neville says about the team. Sure, we've read into body language and social media posts. But why can't we buy that it's normal for a player to be emotional about a bad situation and not have it derail their performance, much less that of the entire team? Why are we ascribing things to mentality when there are clear strategic and tactical reasons, and arguably roster issues with respect to those things, that explain the problems?
Right now we are only one slot higher on the table than we were at the end of last season. I don't know offhand how much higher or lower we might end this season depending on the results of future matches. We only have 3 more points than we did to end last season. I think it's fair to say we have better players this season too. That isn't a lot of progress in my opinion. We are overstating how good we think this team is because the attack has been scoring goals. But, as Jeremy Peterson has pointed out at Cascadia FC and others can verify, we have been outperforming our expected goals. We are returning to the mean. And we still haven't really gotten our defense together.
Are we really losing games because Santi is excited about the prospect of signing to a big Brazilian club? Because Eryk Williamson looks insufficiently enthused? Because Zac McGraw just didn't want to win a header enough (the dude went to West Point!)? Because Kamal Miller didn't want to be subbed off? This is absurd. It is underscored by all the vagueness. Speculating on which players have bad attitudes and don't want to be here is worse than criticizing their physical limitations or skills, especially when it's based on so little actual information.
"Am I so out of touch? No, it's the children who are wrong."
Yeah, over the course of the season, the Timbers have greatly outperformed their xG (at one point a month ago, by almost two goals, although I haven't checked lately), and these last two games are what regressing to the mean looks like. And without an upgraded defense, that's gonna sting.
But I absolutely have one foot in both camps. I definitely believe that mentality matters, but I also do not believe that mentality alone causes losses. I believe that it's a coach's job to harness that mentality, and when the coach sees the mentality start to turn, to make sure that it doesn't fester, doesn't turn into a cause of bad play.
The way a coach can do that is by having a solid system in place that players can lean on, which is where I think Phil's a bit lacking sometimes. He's so invested in the vibes angle that he seems to forget that he can actually instill in his defenders a system; he can actually coach JDM on how to make effective runs and not just get lost down the wing; etc.
"I think it's fair to say we have better players this season too."
Mostly. I am still not convinced about that on the defensive side, although coaching is a big part of the problem there as well. One of the upgrades I wish Ned would make this winter is to move on from Liam as defensive coach. He's just not getting it done, and he's acknowledged as more or less the sole defensive coach; I'm all for the buck stopping with the head coach, but if Liam's calling himself the defensive coach, Liam's gotta take responsibility for the team's utter and complete failure to do the defensive basics well.
Yeah, I don’t mean to discount mentality altogether, just to point out that there are other, primary considerations. A player is going to feel unappreciated and like they’re wasting their time if they are played out of position, or asked to do things that don’t fit their abilities. They’re going to get discouraged when they struggle or the team fails, if they don’t have confidence in the coach or the system. It just pisses me off that even when Neville “takes responsibility” he basically says it’s his fault for putting in the wrong players, essentially shifting the blame to them. When we haven’t changed our marking on set pieces and make the same mistakes regardless of who starts and who the opponent is, there’s more to it.
And we may not have improved personnel defensively but we have spent money. Mosquera has gotten better, he’s just inconsistent. Our centerbacks are good but not playing a high line. Our keepers struggle with that too. Pantemis’ distribution may be improving. Organizationally, the whole team just isn’t coordinated defensively too much of the time.
To your point, you really do need to fall back on tactics to break through, and not just playing harder. If Evander drifts wide (and he should be able to go wherever he wants), then there should be a general idea of another person who can get in around the box, i.e one of the midfielders, with whichever wing and back adjusting their positioning to compensate for an overload. Evander can be effective anywhere on the field, but I'd like to see him operating centrally when a team is bunkering to get more bodies in the box area. Evander drifted wide quite a bit in the second half and then there weren't enough bodies in the box and too many outside and things were stymied. The subs helped, though, I thought.
But really, it should have been a few goals up from the first half onward.
It would be nice to be heading into the last game with some sense of certainty about the team, but a lot seems uncertain.
"It just pisses me off that even when Neville “takes responsibility” he basically says it’s his fault for putting in the wrong players, essentially shifting the blame to them."
He did this in Miami too. He doesn't hesitate, for whatever reason, to throw players under the bus in press conferences. At least he doesn't do it by name, so that's good I guess, but as a coaching technique? Not great. I don't know if that's a holdover from his 90's upbringing, when managers routinely called out players that underperformed, or if he just thinks it's motivational, but I really doubt it's a tactic that builds trust in the locker room long-term.
"Organizationally, the whole team just isn’t coordinated defensively too much of the time."
Yup, and I put that on Liam, as the self-described defensive coach. Upgrade him, and get one or two better defenders this winter, and this team all of a sudden is a whole lot better next season I think.
I get the feeling that this team is all emotional. They get up for big games, and simply weren't motivated to play the Texas teams, even though so much was riding on it. They played fairly well, but just didn't have the edge that they need to break through. Not all the players, mind you. Some are working hard above and beyond. But there is a drag on the team somewhere.
They may put up a fight if they make ninth, but I just don't have faith they will win it. It's eighth or bust, and that seems like a real long shot. For some sort of consolation this season, they absolutely have to beat Seattle and win the cup.
Phil is absolutely a vibes coach. When that works, it works well - we've seen it. I just don't think it's sustainable over every game of an entire season. At some point actual tactics, an actual game plan, has to be layered in there. And that's where Phil has always, both at Miami and here, fallen a bit short; he just wants that spirit, that fight, that energy, to carry the day. And it won't, not always.
This makes me really sad.
These are adults. They're professionals. This is disrespectful to them. As near as I can recall, most of the evidence for the "mentality" argument is what Neville says about the team. Sure, we've read into body language and social media posts. But why can't we buy that it's normal for a player to be emotional about a bad situation and not have it derail their performance, much less that of the entire team? Why are we ascribing things to mentality when there are clear strategic and tactical reasons, and arguably roster issues with respect to those things, that explain the problems?
Right now we are only one slot higher on the table than we were at the end of last season. I don't know offhand how much higher or lower we might end this season depending on the results of future matches. We only have 3 more points than we did to end last season. I think it's fair to say we have better players this season too. That isn't a lot of progress in my opinion. We are overstating how good we think this team is because the attack has been scoring goals. But, as Jeremy Peterson has pointed out at Cascadia FC and others can verify, we have been outperforming our expected goals. We are returning to the mean. And we still haven't really gotten our defense together.
Are we really losing games because Santi is excited about the prospect of signing to a big Brazilian club? Because Eryk Williamson looks insufficiently enthused? Because Zac McGraw just didn't want to win a header enough (the dude went to West Point!)? Because Kamal Miller didn't want to be subbed off? This is absurd. It is underscored by all the vagueness. Speculating on which players have bad attitudes and don't want to be here is worse than criticizing their physical limitations or skills, especially when it's based on so little actual information.
"Am I so out of touch? No, it's the children who are wrong."
Yeah, over the course of the season, the Timbers have greatly outperformed their xG (at one point a month ago, by almost two goals, although I haven't checked lately), and these last two games are what regressing to the mean looks like. And without an upgraded defense, that's gonna sting.
But I absolutely have one foot in both camps. I definitely believe that mentality matters, but I also do not believe that mentality alone causes losses. I believe that it's a coach's job to harness that mentality, and when the coach sees the mentality start to turn, to make sure that it doesn't fester, doesn't turn into a cause of bad play.
The way a coach can do that is by having a solid system in place that players can lean on, which is where I think Phil's a bit lacking sometimes. He's so invested in the vibes angle that he seems to forget that he can actually instill in his defenders a system; he can actually coach JDM on how to make effective runs and not just get lost down the wing; etc.
"I think it's fair to say we have better players this season too."
Mostly. I am still not convinced about that on the defensive side, although coaching is a big part of the problem there as well. One of the upgrades I wish Ned would make this winter is to move on from Liam as defensive coach. He's just not getting it done, and he's acknowledged as more or less the sole defensive coach; I'm all for the buck stopping with the head coach, but if Liam's calling himself the defensive coach, Liam's gotta take responsibility for the team's utter and complete failure to do the defensive basics well.
Yeah, I don’t mean to discount mentality altogether, just to point out that there are other, primary considerations. A player is going to feel unappreciated and like they’re wasting their time if they are played out of position, or asked to do things that don’t fit their abilities. They’re going to get discouraged when they struggle or the team fails, if they don’t have confidence in the coach or the system. It just pisses me off that even when Neville “takes responsibility” he basically says it’s his fault for putting in the wrong players, essentially shifting the blame to them. When we haven’t changed our marking on set pieces and make the same mistakes regardless of who starts and who the opponent is, there’s more to it.
And we may not have improved personnel defensively but we have spent money. Mosquera has gotten better, he’s just inconsistent. Our centerbacks are good but not playing a high line. Our keepers struggle with that too. Pantemis’ distribution may be improving. Organizationally, the whole team just isn’t coordinated defensively too much of the time.
To your point, you really do need to fall back on tactics to break through, and not just playing harder. If Evander drifts wide (and he should be able to go wherever he wants), then there should be a general idea of another person who can get in around the box, i.e one of the midfielders, with whichever wing and back adjusting their positioning to compensate for an overload. Evander can be effective anywhere on the field, but I'd like to see him operating centrally when a team is bunkering to get more bodies in the box area. Evander drifted wide quite a bit in the second half and then there weren't enough bodies in the box and too many outside and things were stymied. The subs helped, though, I thought.
But really, it should have been a few goals up from the first half onward.
It would be nice to be heading into the last game with some sense of certainty about the team, but a lot seems uncertain.
"It just pisses me off that even when Neville “takes responsibility” he basically says it’s his fault for putting in the wrong players, essentially shifting the blame to them."
He did this in Miami too. He doesn't hesitate, for whatever reason, to throw players under the bus in press conferences. At least he doesn't do it by name, so that's good I guess, but as a coaching technique? Not great. I don't know if that's a holdover from his 90's upbringing, when managers routinely called out players that underperformed, or if he just thinks it's motivational, but I really doubt it's a tactic that builds trust in the locker room long-term.
"Organizationally, the whole team just isn’t coordinated defensively too much of the time."
Yup, and I put that on Liam, as the self-described defensive coach. Upgrade him, and get one or two better defenders this winter, and this team all of a sudden is a whole lot better next season I think.