Portland Timbers 2024 Season Preview

Portland enters 2024 in the midst of change and with high expectations.

Photo credit: Craig Mitchelldyer/Portland Timbers

126 days since the Portland Timbers last played a competitive professional soccer match, they will do so again. The Timbers’ 2024 MLS campaign kicks off on Saturday at Providence Park.

And for the first time since 2018, they enter the season with a new head coach. It truly does feel like the start of a new era for Portland, as they seek to correct the failure of missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.

Can Phil Neville lead his new squad back to the postseason? Which players will be the ones to carry the load? Can the Timbers pick themselves back up off the mat and return to where they want to be in the table?

Here’s your preview of Portland’s 2024 MLS season:

What happened in 2023?

The Timbers entered 2023 with high expectations — and fell quite short of them. An up and down start to the season reached a breaking point in a miserable 5-0 loss in Houston in August. That defeat cost Giovanni Savarese his job, as he was dismissed days after the result. Under interim head coach Miles Joseph the Timbers made a valiant late season charge up the table, but fell short in the final few weeks of the season and missed the postseason by a single point for the second year running. Portland finished the season in 10th place with 43 points — their lowest point total in a full MLS season since 2012.

It marked the first time the Timbers had missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons since they entered MLS, and the biggest reasons for it lie on both ends of the pitch. Portland’s defense was absolutely miserable, as they gave up the third most goals in the entire league (58 total). They were equally as ineffective on the offensive side, with inconsistent goal scoring dooming them to poor results.

And thus, Timbers General Manager Ned Grabavoy made a move. Out went Giovanni Savarese, in came Phil Neville. In late 2023, the English international and former Inter Miami manager was tabbed as the man to become Portland’s fourth full time head coach in the MLS era, and lead the Timbers back to the postseason.

Is that Neville looking dramatic - or did he just see Portland’s defensive stats from last year? | Photo Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer/Portland Timbers

Offseason moves

Players Out

• Sebastian Blanco

• Yimmi Chara

• Jaroslaw Niezgoda

• Franck Boli

• Bryan Acosta

• Noel Caliskan

• Diego Gutierrez

• Justin Rasmussen

• David Bingham

Players In

• James Pantemis

• Trey Muse

• Kamal Miller

• Maxime Crepeau

• Eric Miller (re-signed in free agency)

Portland’s offseason moves saw them bid farewell to many club mainstays. With the ineffectiveness of the team over the past two seasons, it shouldn’t have been a surprise. But it was still significant to say goodbye to the likes of Yimmi Chara and Jaroslaw Niezgoda, who despite inconsistency did have bright moments in green & gold. And of course the biggest farewell was to Sebastian Blanco, who was the heart and emotional leader of the Timbers for so long. He is up there with the Timbers greats, but now his time in Portland is over.

The biggest takeaway of the transfer window is that it opened up two Designated Player slots for Portland to use to build their roster, with one being primed to be used on a new attacker.

As for moves in, the Timbers have paid special attention to their defense. The transfers of Pantemis and Muse were the start of a needed refresh of the goalkeeper position (Ed. note: Aljaz Ivacic is still technically on the roster for the Timbers, but is expected to be transferred out in the near future), and the trade to acquire Kamal Miller is a very shrewd and smart transaction which gives Portland three starting-caliber central defenders in Miller, Zac McGraw, and Dario Zuparic.

The crown jewel of the transfers thus far is Maxime Crepeau. Signed in free agency, the MLS Cup and Supporter’s Shield winning goalkeeper has perhaps the strongest pedigree of any goalkeeper the Timbers have ever brought in. He is a clear upgrade on the position, and on its own that move could be good enough to help Portland reach the playoffs.

Crepeau (right) getting read to make one of the first of approximately a million saves this year | Photo Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer/Portland Timbers

But Portland isn’t done — they have been heavily rumored to be close to signing an attacking player as a DP. At time of publishing, the team still is believed to be about a week away from finalizing the signing, and there are multiple targets the Timbers are chasing.

It is frustrating that the Timbers once again haven’t gotten their major transfer business done before the season kicks off, but here we are. Regardless of when it is made, the signing will in all likelihood be the most important one the Timbers make for the 2024 season, as much of their hopes of revamped goal scoring lie in getting it right.

Head coach, preferred formation, lineups, and tactics

Phil Neville comes to town after two-and-a-half seasons at Inter Miami CF, and prior to that, he had a three-year stint as head coach of England Women’s National Team. He enters Portland as somewhat of a blank state, as much of his time in MLS was colored by dealing with roster restrictions and sanctions imposed by the league.

Therefore, it is hard to say exactly how he will want this Timbers team to play. He’s stated that he wants his team to control the ball and be on the front foot in matches, which would indeed be a change from Savarese’s reactive and counter-attacking focused play. But outside of that proclamation, we don’t have a ton of specifics for how he expects the Timbers to do so.

He toggled between and 4-2-3-1 and a 3-4-3/3-5-2 in his time in Florida, and we’ve seen variations of both formations in preseason with the Timbers. In all of his head coaching stops, Neville has been practical and played to the strengths of his roster, seeking to put his players in their best positions to complement the players around them. So that appears to be as close to a coaching ethos that we’re going to get from Neville before we get to see his team play live.

This roster appears to be set up well to play in a 4-2-3-1, and even a 3-4-3 should the situation require. It does sound like Portland will be situational in their approach, and set up tactically based on each separate opponent they are facing.

Regardless, the key to this Timbers roster being effective is maximizing their playmakers. Evander, Santiago Moreno, Antony, Juan Mosquera, and Eryk Williamson all bring so much to the pitch. How much Neville gets out of them will be directly proportional to how well Portland does this season.

Predicted starting XI* (4-2-3-1): Maxime Crepeau; Juan Mosquera, Zac McGraw, Kamal Miller, Claudio Bravo*; Diego Chara, Eryk Williamson; Santiago Moreno, Evander, Antony; Felipe Mora*

*When full roster is available. Claudio Bravo and Felipe Mora are both currently dealing with injuries of varying severity.

Key players

• Evander

  Portland’s club-record signing had a decent debut year in MLS — and is very much expected to hit greater heights in his sophomore season. He recorded nine goals and five assists in 2023, and if Portland’s attack is going to improve than he will need to improve those numbers and live up to the expectations of being a centerpiece number 10 in MLS.

  

  Don’t be fooled by the outdated picture — Evander will be donning the number 10 jersey this season, and all of the expectations that come with it. | Photo Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer/Portland Timbers

• Santiago Moreno

  The 23-year-old Colombian dynamo is the x-factor for Portland’s attack. He tallied three goals and nine assists in 2023, and is tabbed to rise in effectiveness 2024. The winger/midfielder was rewarded with a new contract this offseason, so the pressure is on.

• Zac McGraw

  Perhaps the player with the strongest career trajectory on the roster, the central defender’s meteoric rise to become a lock-down starter and Canadian international is no accident. Very strong in the air and adept at making key interceptions and clearances, McGraw will be looked to marshal a Timbers defense which should be improved this year.

• Maxime Crepeau

  It is not an exaggeration to say that Crepeau has the talent to be a one-man difference maker for Portland. Despite playing limited minutes after returning from injury, his shot-stopping ability in 2023 projected as ranking among the very best in the league. Big things will be expected of him, as despite the expectation that it will be improved, the Timbers defense is still, y’know, the Timbers defense.

• Juan Mosquera

  Another young Colombian attacker who got a new contract this offseason, the 21-year-old is expected to be a key piece of the attack from the right fullback spot. His propensity to bomb forward is an electric addition to the team, and his ability to ascend into the upper-tier of right-backs could have big implications for Portland’s chances to rise up the table — and his own chances for a big summer transfer.

Season outlook and expectations

Ned Grabavoy has been adamant from the moment he was promoted: this is a playoff roster. And I would have to agree. There is enough talent on this Timbers team for them to finish in the top-nine of the Western Conference at least — and that was before the defensive additions. Blame for the past seasons’ failures can be handed out broadly, but the fact remains that this roster should have been in the postseason in 2022 and 2023.

So the expectations and goal for 2024 is clear. The Timbers need to return to the playoffs, full stop. Finishing lower than that is unacceptable with the amount of money and time invested in the roster. We can have a separate debate about whether purely qualifying is sufficient for calling a season a “success”, but that debate only starts after Portland actually qualifies.

Is Phil Neville the man to lead Portland back to the postseason? It is so hard to say. Yes, he did lead a flawed Miami roster to qualify in 2022, but his record in Florida in 2021 and 2023 were miserable. Despite his experience, it is an open question as to his ability level as a head coach in MLS and whether he can achieve consistency in this league.

If he does so with the Timbers, it will almost assuredly be on the back of an improved defense. Literally all of the transfers in thus far have been defensive, and that has to pay off if Portland’s position is to be improved. Much will be expected of K. Miller, Crepeau, and McGraw this year, and for my money the defense could wind up being the strongest unit for the Timbers this year.

The offense is… a different story. It all depends on the DP signing(s) that Grabavoy and company make. If they get it right and bring in an effective difference maker, then Portland could truly be in business. If they get it wrong or the player doesn’t live up to expectations, then Portland could be in for yet another feeble struggle below or around the playoff line.

Sure, there is enough firepower on the roster to help carry Portland through the opening weeks of the season. But if the Timbers want to achieve consistency — Grabavoy’s stated goal — then they need to do what all good MLS teams do and get the DP signing(s) right.

For now, the success or failure of this team depends on how well it can come together. The talent is apparent, but last year showed what can happen when it doesn’t all click. Phil Neville was brought in to be the guy to make it all hum, and mend a locker room which clearly had some cracks. He talks and acts like the man who can do so — but now we have to actually see him do it, and have it pay off on the pitch.

Check out Phuoc, Alex, and Sam chat about their expectations for the season in episode 3 of Stumptown Radio:

Episode 3: Portland Timbers 2024 MLS Season Preview

Hot takes!

What’s a new season without some bold predictions? I’ll turn it over to the rest of the STF team to share their hottest takes & predictions for 2024:

Phuoc: Santiago Moreno will lead the Portland Timbers in goal contributions, and
Portland’s defense will be massively improved, ending the year in the top 10 in goals allowed.

Alex: Juan David Mosquera will lead the team in assists by the time the summer transfer window opens, and multiple bids from overseas will come in that the Timbers will find difficult to turn down.

Melina: After struggling with injuries, this is going to be Eryk Williamson's year. He will become pivotal for the midfield once again and hopefully will help Evander shine. The defense will be good and maybe will find a whole new level. I feel confident saying that the production in the final third will improve because there's no way it can be worse than last year's.

Sam: One of the current midfielders on the roster (Evander, Cristhian Paredes, Eryk Williamson, Cristhian Paredes, David Ayala) will get a transfer and won’t end the season as a Timbers player.

Predicted final finish position

This Timbers team is one of the highest-variance rosters in the Western Conference, in my humble opinion. If things go right — Evander kicks it into gear, the defense improves, Santi finds a new level, the new DP forward lights it up — then this team could be right in the thick of the top half of the conference.

If things go wrong — Evander is still mid, nobody else steps up, the defense is still porous, goalscoring doesn’t improve — then this team could very well miss the playoffs again.

It’s so hard to predict, but that ain’t gonna stop us. Here’s where the STF team thinks Portland will end the season in the West when the dust settles in the fall:

Phuoc: 6th place
Alex: 7th place
Melina: 8th place
Sam: 5th place