Playoff Prognostication: Who and where will Timbers play in the Wild Card?

Yes, the hope of hosting the Wild Card game remains just barely alive

Photo Credit: Kelsey Baker

The Portland Timbers didn’t play over the weekend, but they still got a win.

LAFC defeated the Vancouver Whitecaps 2-1 at BC Place via a last-gasp goal from Ilie Sanchez on Sunday evening. Not only did the loss continue Vancouver’s poor run of recent form (another boon for Portland), but it also kept Vancouver just one point above the Timbers.

Why is that important? It means that there is hope the Timbers could leapfrog the ‘Caps and finish the season in eighth place, thereby hosting the Wild Card Round next week. That is if they get some results to fall their way.

What would need to happen? What are the other potential matchups and locations the Timbers could find themselves in for the playoffs? Which ones are the most likely outcomes? Let’s dive in:

State of the table

Here is your snapshot of the only part of the table you really need to care about:

The columns, from left to right: Games Played, Wins, Draws, Losses, Goal For, Goals Against, Goal Differential, Points

What we for sure now is that Portland is locked into the Wild Card Round. They will be playing on October 22 or 23 in a one-off play-in match for the right to play the Western Conference’s top seed (very likely the LA Galaxy) in the best-of-three first round of the playoffs.

What we don’t know for sure is who Portland will be playing, and where. The 8 seed hosts the 9 seed, and as of right now any one of Portland, Vancouver, or Minnesota could host next week. The Loons and the ‘Caps are firmly in the driver seat, and for Portland to rise any higher in the table they need Vancouver to drop points.

For posterity, here is each team’s Decision Day matchup:

• Minnesota vs. St. Louis

• Vancouver @ Real Salt Lake

• Portland @ Seattle

The benefits of hosting the Wild Card game

A brief note on the stakes for Decision Day, besides y’know the obvious (BEAT SEATTLE). Last season was the first time MLS adopted this Wild Card Round, then best-of-three First Round, then single-elimination format. And last season, every single higher seeded team except for one advanced past the first round (shoutout to St. Louis blowing it as a one seed!).

And that includes the Wild Card Round. Both teams that hosted the play-in games in 2023 advanced, one of them needing penalty kicks to do so. So if you are in a must-win game, MLS and playoff precedent suggests that you want to be the one hosting it.

That is doubly true for the 2024 Portland Timbers. Portland’s home form is several orders of magnitude better than their road form. They’ve collected vastly more points (32 vs. 14) and scored more goals (39 vs. 25) at Providence Park than anywhere else. Recent matches notwithstanding, Portland has the talent to beat any team that comes to the Park. They haven’t won an away match since June, and haven’t beaten a Western Conference playoff team on the road this year.

So yeah, the Timbers want to host the Wild Card game. The problem is that the mountain they have to climb is steep, and they need some help too.

Decision Day Scenarios

The best scenario is the shortest: if the Timbers win on Decision Day and the Whitecaps do not, playoff soccer is coming to Providence Park. The Timbers would jump the ‘Caps and then end the season in 8th place, and Portland would host Vancouver in the Wild Card game.

This would obviously be the preferred outcome for the Timbers, when taking into account the previous section, as well as what happened the last time Vancouver came to Providence Park.

The unfortunate part is that the most favorable outcome is also not super likely. Portland not only needs to win in Seattle — who it pains me to say are in very good form right now — but they also need Vancouver to lose or draw in Salt Lake. It’s not implausible, as Vancouver will not be favored against an RSL team playing for higher seeding and Portland hasn’t lost a regular season match in Seattle since 2017. But Portland’s horrid road form makes them getting an outright win unlikely in my eyes.

So let’s game out the two remaining scenarios: Portland traveling to Minnesota to face Minnesota United, or Portland traveling to Vancouver to face the Whitecaps.

Portland hopping on a plane to Minneapolis would first require the Loons to implode at home against St. Louis City. This is almost more unlikely than Portland hosting, as Minnesota are also one of the hottest teams in MLS at the moment, and St. Louis have nothing to play for but pride. We’ve seen weirder things happen on Decision Day, but I don’t see that happening here.

If it does and Minnesota loses, Vancouver would have to beat Salt Lake. Then Portland would travel to Allianz Field. The same would be true if the Loons draw and the Whitecaps win by three goals or more.

But the most likely scenario in my opinion is Portland crossing the border to Vancouver for the second time in a month. If Portland doesn’t win in Seattle and/or Vancouver gets any kind of result in Salt Lake the Timbers are headed up I-5 to face the Whitecaps in the Wild Card Round. Because of the fact that this could happen even if Portland gets a win in Seattle, my hunch is that’s the direction we’re heading.

The TL;DR: Portland needs a win and some help to host the Wild Card game, but in all likelihood will be traveling to Vancouver for the Wild Card Round.

Juan Mosquera, on his way to ruin Seattle’s day again, probably // Photo Credit: Kelsey Baker

What it all means for Saturday

If you stuck through this article this long, you’re now probably wondering how to feel for Saturday. And my recommendation is to not worry too much about the permutations and just focus on what Portland can accomplish: notching a rivalry win and raising the Cascadia Cup.

Too much is out of the Timbers’ hands, and so we as fans should just let all of the chaos swirling elsewhere go. I am certain that is Phil Neville’s message to his team before Decision Day, and he is urging his team to focus on the 90 minutes in front of them. And that is my message to you all as well.

Beat Seattle (or heck, even tie them!), raise the Cascadia Cup in their house. Let whatever results elsewhere fall where they will. In an ideal world we’re jumping and clapping and singing for victory at Providence Park. But in any world, wherever the Timbers go for the playoffs, we’ll be cheering them on — even if it’s from our living rooms.