I'd guess that the recovery protocol says Smith gets 15-20 minutes if she does play, so not much time to make an impact. But if we make the playoffs, it bodes well.
Sure hope Sugita gets better soon too, for both her sake and the team's.
Reilyn is back also, which is nice! I imagine Soph isn't ready to go 60 (or even 45?) so will prob start on the bench. If that's the case, would be nice for Reilyn to start with Morgan and Linnehan alongside her. Although, I'm guessing we'll still see Sinc start bc Gale has now been fully Sinc-pilled.
I agree with the predicted lineup lacking Sinc, between it being a short week with her playing so many minutes on Tuesday and next weekend being her final home game (so probably starting), she’ll need to rest up today
This parody shows more creativity than the real thing (I should add that I don't mean to damn you with faint praise since the bar was like a micrometer high).
Couldn't stomach either band, but you're a natural at this branding thing. Here's a few lesser suggestions that popped into my head.
Pixies FC? They could have Frank come scream the national anthem while Joey and David and Emma lay down the thunder.
La Peste FC? They were a big deal there in the new wave era. I believe Ric Ocasek produced them at one point and one of my best friends, a habitué of the late 70s Boston club scene, helped compile a Matador compilation that came out in the 90s.
FC Abigail. In honor of Abigail Adams, John's smart, shrewd wife. Also mother to JQ and great-grandmother to my family favorite, Henry ("Harvard College and the Unitarian Church kept [Boston] shallow").
Finally, I just found out Elizabeth Banks is a B "Nation" investor (she declined to invest in Angel City; I admire that). Why not Banks FC? She's already got better name recognition than the Breakers ever had and at least the proposed AC rivalry would make sense in that context.
The good: This team has a lot of players I like, most of whom are young! Soph is a superstar if she hangs around. I believe Muller, Weaver, and Coffey are foundational players on a high-level team. Moultrie, Reyes, Obaze, and Linnehan are all talented kids. If the new GM is good, there's no reason to think this can't get better fast.
The intrusive: This team gets an injured Washington or error-prone KC in the first round, Soph and Hina come back for the playoff game, they make it to the semi-final or even the final and Gale keeps his job. I don't think that's very likely, but it's certainly not *impossible* if the GM is a dummy / being told what to do.
Some expensive marketing consultants are 'avin' a laff right about now.
"After a period of deep introspection and leaning into our imagined fanbase, we have crafted a new club identity, one we are confident all will be proud of: Other Bay FC."
Wikipedia says "The top two clubs from each group will advance to the knockout stage, played at a centralized location in May 2025." Since the final is three days later that makes sense to minimize travel.
Could that centralized location be HERE? For sure we'd have the best crowds of any of the four semifinalists. And CONCACAF likes its income....
I don't think Tigres is destroying any NWSL team (I'd much rather play them than Gotham), but it'll be a good game. I'd assume it would be in Monterrey, but idk.
I mean if their GK were competent they would’ve kinda destroyed Gotham tonight! I was more so talking about if we continued playing our B team for these games (such as the starting XI from last night), I do indeed think we’d be worse off than Gotham was. I think they’d have no prob putting at least 4 past us with a Hubly/Mackenzie CB duo lol. But yes, they also conceded 4…
Yeah, they're not a team you can get away with playing your second team against, that's certainly safe to say. Gotham found that out last night, and they have a damn good second team. They did get beaten pretty easily by Houston and KC in the summer cup though.
Mostly, just excited to play another Liga MX team.
Some cool news re: Muller. Apparently she's made a list of on-call players for this upcoming window for Germany. It's a long list to make the cut, but still cool that her efforts haven't gone unnoticed.
Translated from German (Der Spiegel):
"Rebuilding the DFB women National team coach Christian Wück aims for his first wins with these players.
Leader Alexandra Popp gone, big steps to fill after predecessor Horst Hrubesch won bronze at the Olympics: Christian Wück is not up for an easy task with the DFB women. Prior to his start he surprises with two personnel decisions.
Christian Wück starts his new job as Bundestrainer of the German women with two newbies. On October 25 (8:30 pm CEDT / ARD) against England at Wembley Stadium and on October 28 (6:10 pm CET / ARD) against Australia in Duisburg are two friendlies coming up. First-time nominees in the roster of 23 are forward Giovanna Hoffmann from RB Leipzig and midfielder Lisann Gräwe from Eintracht Frankfurt.
Hoffmann fulfilled »our profile for the center forward position almost 100 percent,« Wück said: »We're excited to see whether she is able to reach her women's Bundesliga performance on a high international level, too«. Gräwe, too, »had earned attention with good performances and high playing time at her club«.
51-year-old Wück has led the DFB's male U17 to the World Cup title last year. Now he follows Horst Hrubesch who finished his short stint with the DFB women winning the bronze medal at the Olympic Games. The 73-year-old had taken over as head coach after a commotion around former Bundestrainer Martina Voss-Tecklenburg following the botched 2023 World Cup.
Wück's task will be to make people forget the bad impression from the World Cup at the next Euros in the summer and to modernize the German style of play. Under Hrubesch the results were there, but the soccer was easy to figure out. While doing so, Wück has to do without a long-time leader.
DFB captain Alexandra Popp, who had announced her retirement from the national team in late September, will advance to the roster as 24th player for the second game against Australia. In Duisburg, the 33-year-old will complete her 145th and last international match.
Equally, a battle is expected on the goalkeeper position. Merle Frohms from VfL Wolfsburg had surprisingly retired from the national team after the Olympics. 34-year-old Ann-Katrin Berger had played a big part in winning the bronze medal with sensational performances - she's expected to stay in goal for now, but her replacements Johannes and Grohs are said to be highly talented.
Not available for Wück right now is defender Bibiane Schulze Solano (Athletic Bilbao) who suffers from a torn ACL. Similarly missing will be defender Kathrin Hendrich from VfL Wolfsburg who, according to DFB, will pause for this national team measure »in close coordination with her club« with respect to the just recently subsided aftermath of a slight injury.
Roster summary:
Goal: Ann-Katrin Berger (Gotham FC), Stina Johannes (Eintracht Frankfurt), Maria Luisa Grohs (Bayern Munich)
It is indeed a long list of "on call" players, but it's just in alphabetical order so we don't know where Müller falls in the pecking order. It's undoubtedly position-dependent too, so she could well be first-up as a left back replacement (and possibly right back as well). Good on her!
Wish to echo Wilder's comments on Mueller. She really shone last night in several aspects of the game. She's often not on camera all that much and hard to follow in detail, but last night she seemed to be front and center constantly, where her craft and communications with teammates were both on display.
If she was KK's discovery then we have something to laud KK for.
Happy for Sinc to have this unexpected Canada coda. Relieved that folks showed for the match, other Whitecaps match I saw maybe had a couple hundred. That place is yuge.
...and LeBlanc would also get credit for having Mike Smith on staff to find Müller. All things considered, I think it's KK's best move during her time as GM.
With nothing on the line but being a hater, lol and lmao Seattle. Finally break their 5 game (!) scoring drought, give up a penalty goal to Houston not even a minute later. Honestly it’s very kind of Seattle, they made a good run for the wooden spoon to take the sting out an otherwise tough year for the Thorns.
I'm always curious to see how cumulative xG reflects the table at the end of the season given how frequently we use it as a performance metric, and here's a pretty good look: Chicago is really the only outlier here- They're substantially outperforming their xG differential, which isn't super surprising given how that's how Donaldson has set them up to play. Utah is as well to an extent, but I think this more a function of the contrast between the pre-summer window Royals and post-summer window Royals. Then, of course, the big pile of mediocre in the middle.
Really surprised that Angel City shows up so far the left in that graph, so far into the negative territory of PSxG-G. I think of Haračić as one of the best keepers in the league, but she's at the bottom of the list by that stat. It's undoubtedly affected by how many shots she faces (lots), but still.
How has Donaldson set them up to play so as to outperform their xGD? Are they stopping more shots than they "should" (because Alyssa Naeher), scoring more than they "should" (because Mallory Swanson), or something tactical that the coach did? Just curious because I don't know how coaching/tactics can lead to outperforming xGD.
KC looks like an outlier too, since they're lower on the table (4th) than their xGD would have them. OTOH they were in 1st/2nd place for most of the season, matching their xGD better, and maybe their current outlying position is just a consequence of their falloff late in the season.
They play in a low-block 4-4-2, which means that they're not generating a high volume of chances, which in turn means that their cumulative xG is going to be lower. On the defensive side, they have the third worst xGA in the league, but only the 8th worst GA.
So, I should probably re-phrase my original statement: it's less that they're set up to outperform their xG and more that they *have* to outperform their xG to get results playing the way they do. They're reliant on players like Swanson and Ludmila converting at a higher-than-average rate while allowing fewer goals than their xGA would suggest. Normally teams that succeed playing this way have a rock-solid defense that keeps them in games, but that hasn't really been the case for Chicago, as the xGA:GA differential indicates.....which is why I lean a little more towards their table position this season being slightly lucky. It's not like Naeher has been brilliant either: she's pretty much middle of the road among NWSL keepers, so that's not necessarily why they're staying in games either.
Re: KC, they're 4th, but only a point off 2nd. So yeah, underperforming a bit, but nothing crazy.
Ok that makes sense. I'm a big fan of "luck" as a reason for a lot of things in soccer. We love to have stories, to have a reason why things happened the way they did, but a lot of the time it's just chance and we hate to admit it.
Also, something I don't like about xG is that it measures only the final shot, not what led up to it. Thinking about Linnehan's goal against Vancouver, she had rounded the keeper and was shooting from short range on an empty net, so her shot must have had an xG of 0.95 or something. *But that wasn't the hard part of her goal.* The hard part was outracing both her defender and the keeper to reach the ball first, and then tapping it hard enough in the right direction to get around the keeper but soft enough that it didn't get away from her. The entry pass to her probably had an xG of 0.20 or something because it's very easy to mess up somewhere in that process. We've all seen that play fail many times! Is there some xG-like measure that takes into account the whole play, not just the final shot?
Yeah, that's the exact reason for why we shouldn't use single-game xG as evidence for how well a team played in a particular game without context. xG tends to even out over the course of a season, but empty net chances skew single-game xG towards that one great chance.
There aren't xG metrics for buildup to my knowledge, but there are stats like "touches in the penalty area" that can somewhat approximate how effective buildup is.
Yeah the guy who created the dashboard I posted and also does the match summaries with G+ and other stuff did xT instead of G+ for a while. I'm not quite sold on the value of possession models as an analysis tool, but xT is about as close as you can get to a useful one. Same kinda issue with OBV for individual players, which always values progressive carries and passes far more highly because of their additive value to chances created.
I don’t quite understand how Soph makes the USWNT roster when she hasn’t played a minute for a month. Rodman, by comparison, is staying in DC to recover from her injury despite playing last weekend.
TBF Smith has apparently been training with the team, and she may not play all that much with the Nats. This callup looks appropriately like Hayes familiarizing herself with the player pool. Also, not knowing anything about either injury, it seems plausible that Rodman may have returned too soon and suffered for it, while Smith's more cautious approach avoided that.
I don't want to believe that Smith has been malingering to save herself for the Nats, and I don't see anything so far to make me think that. Of course I hope she's available this weekend, and Hayes apparently suggests she will be. I don't know why Gale couldn't be the one to tell us that.
To be clear, this isn't me saying "there's something shady going on behind the scenes with Soph," it's more that injured players should not be going to camps right before the playoffs if they haven't played for their club teams in a month. Especially since this is a relatively experimental roster from Hayes.
It's also a comment on how continuously opaque injury reporting is in the NWSL. I don't know if I'm so bothered by it because I watch a ton of NBA and NFL for contrast, but the club should be giving news on the health of its star player, not the national team! It's ridiculous!
Yeah, or KK, or whoever in the org is telling him to BS reporters. I understand that reporters don't want to press him too much on his nonsense and can only do so much if he's not willing to answer, but it's becoming a real problem.
I wish (interim) Nadeshiko coach Sasaki would do something like that with Hina. Of course, that's assuming Hina's back on the JWNT radar with Ikeda stepping down. The latter had gone a bit sour on her for some reason. She wasn't called up for their upcoming friendlies, but I have no idea if that's injury-recovery-related or if she's still not favored.
It's not a matter of blowing off the league: Tanaka and Matsukubo both called up. The former is a no-brainer, but I was wondering if young Manaka-chan was going to get devalued for not playing in Europe or the domestic league. Doesn't look like it...so I'm hoping Hina's absence is because she still has some healing to do.
Dias also had an assist or two. Either Gotham was playing true scrubs in defense (it sorta looked like this, though I don't remember their names) or Tigres coach Mila Martínez has figured out how to unlock Dias's ability.
Sophia will be available for tomorrow!:
https://x.com/tayvincent6/status/1847466056925008319
I'd guess that the recovery protocol says Smith gets 15-20 minutes if she does play, so not much time to make an impact. But if we make the playoffs, it bodes well.
Sure hope Sugita gets better soon too, for both her sake and the team's.
Reilyn is back also, which is nice! I imagine Soph isn't ready to go 60 (or even 45?) so will prob start on the bench. If that's the case, would be nice for Reilyn to start with Morgan and Linnehan alongside her. Although, I'm guessing we'll still see Sinc start bc Gale has now been fully Sinc-pilled.
Tbf, Turner probably won’t be a go for a full workload either.
Right, that's what I mean. They'd split time at the 9...one subs in/out for the other.
I'm just happy she's back so maybe we see less D'Aquila/Sinc and more Turner/Linnehan/Spaanstra.
I agree with the predicted lineup lacking Sinc, between it being a short week with her playing so many minutes on Tuesday and next weekend being her final home game (so probably starting), she’ll need to rest up today
Thorns Academy news: One of the Thorns GK's has made the U19WYNT training camp from Oct 24-30. Nice to see!
https://x.com/USYNT/status/1846957196791501048
Some highlights of hers from this year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jt3yVw8_dR4
She's a senior at West Linn HS. Is going to Northwestern next year.
That name sounds familiar from the academy game against Ryan Reynolds, doesn’t it?
I believe she did play that game!
Nyamma Nelson. Never heard of her, but maybe we will in the future.
BOS Nation botched their branding rollout, but it's not too late!
Rebrand as BOS Scaggs FC and hire Sarah "Dirty" Lowdon as their first HC.
I wonder, wonder, wonder, wonder who
Put those ideas in your head
I wonder, wonder, wonder, wonder who
Got you thinkin' like that
Got you thinkin' just like that
This parody shows more creativity than the real thing (I should add that I don't mean to damn you with faint praise since the bar was like a micrometer high).
Damn you, faint praise!
Too late to rebrand as Mighty Mighty BOSton FC?
("The Impression That I Get" is that they didn't think through the branding gimmick).
Or perhaps Direct Kick Murphys?
Couldn't stomach either band, but you're a natural at this branding thing. Here's a few lesser suggestions that popped into my head.
Pixies FC? They could have Frank come scream the national anthem while Joey and David and Emma lay down the thunder.
La Peste FC? They were a big deal there in the new wave era. I believe Ric Ocasek produced them at one point and one of my best friends, a habitué of the late 70s Boston club scene, helped compile a Matador compilation that came out in the 90s.
FC Abigail. In honor of Abigail Adams, John's smart, shrewd wife. Also mother to JQ and great-grandmother to my family favorite, Henry ("Harvard College and the Unitarian Church kept [Boston] shallow").
Finally, I just found out Elizabeth Banks is a B "Nation" investor (she declined to invest in Angel City; I admire that). Why not Banks FC? She's already got better name recognition than the Breakers ever had and at least the proposed AC rivalry would make sense in that context.
Something having to do with the Charles River perhaps?
I think you're onto something with Abigail Adams.
Maybe Daughters of Liberty FC?
Some Wednesday morning thoughts:
The good: This team has a lot of players I like, most of whom are young! Soph is a superstar if she hangs around. I believe Muller, Weaver, and Coffey are foundational players on a high-level team. Moultrie, Reyes, Obaze, and Linnehan are all talented kids. If the new GM is good, there's no reason to think this can't get better fast.
The intrusive: This team gets an injured Washington or error-prone KC in the first round, Soph and Hina come back for the playoff game, they make it to the semi-final or even the final and Gale keeps his job. I don't think that's very likely, but it's certainly not *impossible* if the GM is a dummy / being told what to do.
The Bos Nation: This is a good apology, but they still gotta change the name lol
https://x.com/NWSLBoston/status/1846589247492403293
Yet another reason to be thankful the coin toss came up "Portland"
Some expensive marketing consultants are 'avin' a laff right about now.
"After a period of deep introspection and leaning into our imagined fanbase, we have crafted a new club identity, one we are confident all will be proud of: Other Bay FC."
Back Bay FC.
In Boston, headers will be beaners.
Suppose you couldn't use "Boston" in the name.
New Ironsides
Massive
NEWS (New England Women's Soccer) "Have You Seen the NEWS?"
Cutlass
Terriers
Mayflower
The Terriers are Boston University. As long as they don’t do the Wicked, it should be OK.
First public step as an organization is a misstep.
Gotta put the ball on frame. Instead, they hit a beachball into Back Bay.
Faster retraction than even PROOF Louisville FC.
NWSL, you just keep on NWSLing.
BallsOut, BallsNation, BallsOut!
Re the CONCACAF W Champions Cup:
Wikipedia says "The top two clubs from each group will advance to the knockout stage, played at a centralized location in May 2025." Since the final is three days later that makes sense to minimize travel.
Could that centralized location be HERE? For sure we'd have the best crowds of any of the four semifinalists. And CONCACAF likes its income....
I thought it was slated for San Antonio when the tourney started, but perhaps something has since changed.
Could be considered "central" by the map-challenged. :-)
Texas seems to snag an outsized fraction of off-league soccer but May is pretty dang steamy there.
Well it's central on my globe when I spin it to put Oregon in the middle. That's as good as any other place, I say.
They did it! Thorns-Tigres semi in......May 2025
I sure hope we have a competent team with a few more big adds by then. I'm excited for that one, but I don't wanna get destroyed lol.
Is that game at PP? I assume not since Tigres won their group?
I thought it was neutral site? Something about how seeding didn’t matter, just advancing in the bracket, but I could be misremembering
I don't think Tigres is destroying any NWSL team (I'd much rather play them than Gotham), but it'll be a good game. I'd assume it would be in Monterrey, but idk.
I mean if their GK were competent they would’ve kinda destroyed Gotham tonight! I was more so talking about if we continued playing our B team for these games (such as the starting XI from last night), I do indeed think we’d be worse off than Gotham was. I think they’d have no prob putting at least 4 past us with a Hubly/Mackenzie CB duo lol. But yes, they also conceded 4…
Yeah, they're not a team you can get away with playing your second team against, that's certainly safe to say. Gotham found that out last night, and they have a damn good second team. They did get beaten pretty easily by Houston and KC in the summer cup though.
Mostly, just excited to play another Liga MX team.
Some cool news re: Muller. Apparently she's made a list of on-call players for this upcoming window for Germany. It's a long list to make the cut, but still cool that her efforts haven't gone unnoticed.
Translated from German (Der Spiegel):
"Rebuilding the DFB women National team coach Christian Wück aims for his first wins with these players.
Leader Alexandra Popp gone, big steps to fill after predecessor Horst Hrubesch won bronze at the Olympics: Christian Wück is not up for an easy task with the DFB women. Prior to his start he surprises with two personnel decisions.
Christian Wück starts his new job as Bundestrainer of the German women with two newbies. On October 25 (8:30 pm CEDT / ARD) against England at Wembley Stadium and on October 28 (6:10 pm CET / ARD) against Australia in Duisburg are two friendlies coming up. First-time nominees in the roster of 23 are forward Giovanna Hoffmann from RB Leipzig and midfielder Lisann Gräwe from Eintracht Frankfurt.
Hoffmann fulfilled »our profile for the center forward position almost 100 percent,« Wück said: »We're excited to see whether she is able to reach her women's Bundesliga performance on a high international level, too«. Gräwe, too, »had earned attention with good performances and high playing time at her club«.
51-year-old Wück has led the DFB's male U17 to the World Cup title last year. Now he follows Horst Hrubesch who finished his short stint with the DFB women winning the bronze medal at the Olympic Games. The 73-year-old had taken over as head coach after a commotion around former Bundestrainer Martina Voss-Tecklenburg following the botched 2023 World Cup.
Wück's task will be to make people forget the bad impression from the World Cup at the next Euros in the summer and to modernize the German style of play. Under Hrubesch the results were there, but the soccer was easy to figure out. While doing so, Wück has to do without a long-time leader.
DFB captain Alexandra Popp, who had announced her retirement from the national team in late September, will advance to the roster as 24th player for the second game against Australia. In Duisburg, the 33-year-old will complete her 145th and last international match.
Equally, a battle is expected on the goalkeeper position. Merle Frohms from VfL Wolfsburg had surprisingly retired from the national team after the Olympics. 34-year-old Ann-Katrin Berger had played a big part in winning the bronze medal with sensational performances - she's expected to stay in goal for now, but her replacements Johannes and Grohs are said to be highly talented.
Not available for Wück right now is defender Bibiane Schulze Solano (Athletic Bilbao) who suffers from a torn ACL. Similarly missing will be defender Kathrin Hendrich from VfL Wolfsburg who, according to DFB, will pause for this national team measure »in close coordination with her club« with respect to the just recently subsided aftermath of a slight injury.
Roster summary:
Goal: Ann-Katrin Berger (Gotham FC), Stina Johannes (Eintracht Frankfurt), Maria Luisa Grohs (Bayern Munich)
Defense: Sara Doorsoun (Eintracht Frankfurt), Giulia Gwinn (Bayern Munich), Lisanne Gräwe (Eintracht Frankfurt), Sophia Kleinherne (Eintracht Frankfurt), Sarai Linder (VfL Wolfsburg), Janina Minge (VfL Wolfsburg), Felicitas Rauch (North Carolina Courage), Pia-Sophie Wolter (Eintracht Frankfurt)
Midfield/Forwards: Nicole Anyomi (Eintracht Frankfurt), Jule Brand (VfL Wolfsburg), Klara Bühl (Bayern Munich), Selina Cerci (TSG Hoffenheim), Linda Dallmann (Bayern Munich), Sara Däbritz (Olympique Lyon), Laura Freigang (Eintracht Frankfurt), Giovanna Hoffmann (RB Leipzig), Sydney Lohmann (Bayern Munich), Sjoeke Nüsken (FC Chelsea), Lea Schüller (Bayern Munich), Elisa Senß (Eintracht Frankfurt)
On call: Pauline Bremer (Brighton & Hove Albion), Vivien Endemann (VfL Wolfsburg), Melissa Kössler (TSG Hoffenheim), Paulina Krumbiegel (Juventus Torino), Lena Lattwein (VfL Wolfsburg), Lina Magull (Inter Milan), Ena Mahmutovic (Bayern Munich), Shekiera Martinez (SC Freiburg), Marie Müller (Portland Thorns FC), Carolin Simon (Bayern Munich), Sophia Winkler (SGS Essen)"
It is indeed a long list of "on call" players, but it's just in alphabetical order so we don't know where Müller falls in the pecking order. It's undoubtedly position-dependent too, so she could well be first-up as a left back replacement (and possibly right back as well). Good on her!
Here's a bold idea for the next expansion franchise buzz-worthy brand rollout:
First action, just issue a pre-emptive apology to everyone you're going to offend with whatever happens to come next.
Wish to echo Wilder's comments on Mueller. She really shone last night in several aspects of the game. She's often not on camera all that much and hard to follow in detail, but last night she seemed to be front and center constantly, where her craft and communications with teammates were both on display.
If she was KK's discovery then we have something to laud KK for.
Happy for Sinc to have this unexpected Canada coda. Relieved that folks showed for the match, other Whitecaps match I saw maybe had a couple hundred. That place is yuge.
I'd think more likely Mike Smith (scouting) should get credit for discovering Mueller, but of course LeBlanc gets credit for signing her.
...and LeBlanc would also get credit for having Mike Smith on staff to find Müller. All things considered, I think it's KK's best move during her time as GM.
Mayhaps. I think Smith was working between Timbers and Thorns, so that's really more of a carryover.
Here's what LinkedIn says: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-smith-b394825
I believe Mike Smith was with the club pre-LeBlanc...
With nothing on the line but being a hater, lol and lmao Seattle. Finally break their 5 game (!) scoring drought, give up a penalty goal to Houston not even a minute later. Honestly it’s very kind of Seattle, they made a good run for the wooden spoon to take the sting out an otherwise tough year for the Thorns.
I'm always curious to see how cumulative xG reflects the table at the end of the season given how frequently we use it as a performance metric, and here's a pretty good look: Chicago is really the only outlier here- They're substantially outperforming their xG differential, which isn't super surprising given how that's how Donaldson has set them up to play. Utah is as well to an extent, but I think this more a function of the contrast between the pre-summer window Royals and post-summer window Royals. Then, of course, the big pile of mediocre in the middle.
https://public.tableau.com/shared/WN97XHCJX?:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
(Also, Seb Bush might be my hero with all these free data vis tools. So, so cool and useful)
For the "goals against are a keeper stat" folks ;)
https://public.tableau.com/shared/DX7K4FK6Z?:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
Really surprised that Angel City shows up so far the left in that graph, so far into the negative territory of PSxG-G. I think of Haračić as one of the best keepers in the league, but she's at the bottom of the list by that stat. It's undoubtedly affected by how many shots she faces (lots), but still.
How has Donaldson set them up to play so as to outperform their xGD? Are they stopping more shots than they "should" (because Alyssa Naeher), scoring more than they "should" (because Mallory Swanson), or something tactical that the coach did? Just curious because I don't know how coaching/tactics can lead to outperforming xGD.
KC looks like an outlier too, since they're lower on the table (4th) than their xGD would have them. OTOH they were in 1st/2nd place for most of the season, matching their xGD better, and maybe their current outlying position is just a consequence of their falloff late in the season.
They play in a low-block 4-4-2, which means that they're not generating a high volume of chances, which in turn means that their cumulative xG is going to be lower. On the defensive side, they have the third worst xGA in the league, but only the 8th worst GA.
So, I should probably re-phrase my original statement: it's less that they're set up to outperform their xG and more that they *have* to outperform their xG to get results playing the way they do. They're reliant on players like Swanson and Ludmila converting at a higher-than-average rate while allowing fewer goals than their xGA would suggest. Normally teams that succeed playing this way have a rock-solid defense that keeps them in games, but that hasn't really been the case for Chicago, as the xGA:GA differential indicates.....which is why I lean a little more towards their table position this season being slightly lucky. It's not like Naeher has been brilliant either: she's pretty much middle of the road among NWSL keepers, so that's not necessarily why they're staying in games either.
Re: KC, they're 4th, but only a point off 2nd. So yeah, underperforming a bit, but nothing crazy.
Ok that makes sense. I'm a big fan of "luck" as a reason for a lot of things in soccer. We love to have stories, to have a reason why things happened the way they did, but a lot of the time it's just chance and we hate to admit it.
There's also a big game state portion, especially for a team that sits back and counters like Chicago.
Also, something I don't like about xG is that it measures only the final shot, not what led up to it. Thinking about Linnehan's goal against Vancouver, she had rounded the keeper and was shooting from short range on an empty net, so her shot must have had an xG of 0.95 or something. *But that wasn't the hard part of her goal.* The hard part was outracing both her defender and the keeper to reach the ball first, and then tapping it hard enough in the right direction to get around the keeper but soft enough that it didn't get away from her. The entry pass to her probably had an xG of 0.20 or something because it's very easy to mess up somewhere in that process. We've all seen that play fail many times! Is there some xG-like measure that takes into account the whole play, not just the final shot?
Yeah, that's the exact reason for why we shouldn't use single-game xG as evidence for how well a team played in a particular game without context. xG tends to even out over the course of a season, but empty net chances skew single-game xG towards that one great chance.
There aren't xG metrics for buildup to my knowledge, but there are stats like "touches in the penalty area" that can somewhat approximate how effective buildup is.
they're adding things like xThreat and other possession models but I doubt that data will ever be free. https://statsbomb.com/soccer-metrics/possession-value-models-explained/
Yeah the guy who created the dashboard I posted and also does the match summaries with G+ and other stuff did xT instead of G+ for a while. I'm not quite sold on the value of possession models as an analysis tool, but xT is about as close as you can get to a useful one. Same kinda issue with OBV for individual players, which always values progressive carries and passes far more highly because of their additive value to chances created.
I don’t quite understand how Soph makes the USWNT roster when she hasn’t played a minute for a month. Rodman, by comparison, is staying in DC to recover from her injury despite playing last weekend.
I’d hope that means she’s available this weekend.
TBF Smith has apparently been training with the team, and she may not play all that much with the Nats. This callup looks appropriately like Hayes familiarizing herself with the player pool. Also, not knowing anything about either injury, it seems plausible that Rodman may have returned too soon and suffered for it, while Smith's more cautious approach avoided that.
I don't want to believe that Smith has been malingering to save herself for the Nats, and I don't see anything so far to make me think that. Of course I hope she's available this weekend, and Hayes apparently suggests she will be. I don't know why Gale couldn't be the one to tell us that.
To be clear, this isn't me saying "there's something shady going on behind the scenes with Soph," it's more that injured players should not be going to camps right before the playoffs if they haven't played for their club teams in a month. Especially since this is a relatively experimental roster from Hayes.
It's also a comment on how continuously opaque injury reporting is in the NWSL. I don't know if I'm so bothered by it because I watch a ton of NBA and NFL for contrast, but the club should be giving news on the health of its star player, not the national team! It's ridiculous!
Yup! JT says the timeline piece is def on Gale: https://x.com/thegoalkeeper/status/1846942401501282528?s=46&t=e8Gx9bM3HEyE6UzYl-Lilw
Yeah, or KK, or whoever in the org is telling him to BS reporters. I understand that reporters don't want to press him too much on his nonsense and can only do so much if he's not willing to answer, but it's becoming a real problem.
We ask every single availability and will continue to do so.
I know y'all do, just saying that I understand why you can't do anything about it if he doesn't want to answer with specifics.
https://x.com/tayvincent6/status/1846938202109788484
Lovely that we’re getting news updates on our players from the USWNT coach before our own.
Minutes with an 's'! Like 2 or 3? Just so she can qualify as an active player?
I wish (interim) Nadeshiko coach Sasaki would do something like that with Hina. Of course, that's assuming Hina's back on the JWNT radar with Ikeda stepping down. The latter had gone a bit sour on her for some reason. She wasn't called up for their upcoming friendlies, but I have no idea if that's injury-recovery-related or if she's still not favored.
It's not a matter of blowing off the league: Tanaka and Matsukubo both called up. The former is a no-brainer, but I was wondering if young Manaka-chan was going to get devalued for not playing in Europe or the domestic league. Doesn't look like it...so I'm hoping Hina's absence is because she still has some healing to do.
Manaka has been under-the-radar awesome lately. Such a fun player.
Nice! Moultrie got a USWNT callup! (And Soph and Coffey to of course)
https://x.com/tayvincent6/status/1846929498358563297
Yazmeen Ryan was a fun sighting on the roster, she’s been doing good for Gotham and I do love seeing former Thorns thrive
Well, that explains all the shots on goal, doesn't it?
If the Tigres keeper was a semi-able professional soccer player, they'd be up by a few instead of tied 4-4 rn. Goodness she's awful!
Yeah her positioning has been terrible!
Not only are Tigres level with Gotham 3-3 in the 1st half, but...
Esther is playing for Gotham, so it's not like they're simply rolling forward with their B/C team
AND
Ana Dias -- YES, THAT ANA DIAS -- has a 1st Half brace for Tigres, and Hermoso didn't start.
Dias also had an assist or two. Either Gotham was playing true scrubs in defense (it sorta looked like this, though I don't remember their names) or Tigres coach Mila Martínez has figured out how to unlock Dias's ability.
AND, if they can hold on to a point, Portland will play them instead of Gotham. Which would be fun.